Journal, Thoughts

Blogging update

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Blogging update

When it comes to blogging, one or two things happen. I have a topic in mind or don’t. 

Generally, I have a topic in mind and start writing. The first sentence is reworded or deleted a couple of dozen times. I’m happy with it, carrying on writing or unhappy and bin it. No topic often gets writer’s block, staring at the screen. Write something before quickly deleting it, and end up writing the same thing process. 

Once I have a couple of sentences, turning them into paragraphs. At that stage, move around paragraphs and sentences. The editing process begins with rewriting with rewording, followed by basic formatting. Proofread each sentence for errors and how it sounds. The whole process for me is rather intense, posts end up on the cutting room floor. After this much effort, I can just bin it.

In my little corner of the web, I moderate what is being posted. I have started to move towards quality over quantity. This leads me to explain why I have stopped posting music. Low effort posts and never really explained why I enjoyed it or picked it. I plan on making music posts again but with a better format. Watch me keep to the lazy old format. 

They say the art of blogging is over, I disagree it just moved towards short-form outlets. Social media sites are often short posts cut into pieces or links to other bits of content. The art of blogging has moved from decentralised personal sites to more centralized ones. Being in control of your own corner has benefits and downsides. For me, this was always an outlet, a bit of creativity. Designed to help improve my writing skills and push myself. When it was started things were different compared to now, change happens, and I have learnt a decent amount but way more to learn. 

Journal

Gender recognition reform act

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Gender recognition reform act

Disclaimer

I don’t like what is happening around the Scottish gender recognition reform act. I don’t enjoy watching trans people being punching bags. I fully support expanding, protecting rights and better healthcare.

I can’t begin to understand what transgender people experience. I’m quite frankly ignorant about a range of issues but want to be informed. Unable to understand the challenges facing the transgender community without listening to voices within that community. We should be listening and helping them influence policies that impact them.

The general public often has contradictory, often very complicated opinions. Public opinion can often change widely depending on the question. Details can make or break support. A member of the public does not pay attention until needs to. Other issues are far more important to people compared to this. In the minority here I would broadly support changes to the gender recognition act.

The Scottish gender recognition reform act has been 6 years in the making. Enjoying some cross-party support, various charities and groups have influenced the bill. Even in Scotland, this reform is still controversial. See YouGov polling for the times on the subject here. Reforming this law is controversial, credit to Sturgeon for backing this.

Secretary of State for Scotland, Alister Jack released this statement.

I have decided to make an order under section 35 of the Scotland Act 1998, preventing the Scottish Parliament’s Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill from proceeding to Royal Assent.

After thorough and careful consideration of all the relevant advice and the policy implications, I am concerned that this legislation would have an adverse impact on the operation of Great Britain-wide equalities legislation.

Transgender people who are going through the process to change their legal sex deserve our respect, support and understanding. My decision today is about the legislation’s consequences for the operation of GB-wide equalities protections and other reserved matters.

I have not taken this decision lightly. The Bill would have a significant impact on, amongst other things, GB-wide equalities matters in Scotland, England and Wales. I have concluded, therefore, that this is the necessary and correct course of action.

If the Scottish Government chooses to bring an amended Bill back for reconsideration in the Scottish Parliament, I hope we can work together to find a constructive way forward that both respects devolution and the operation of UK Parliament legislation.

I have written today to the First Minister and the Scottish Parliament’s Presiding Officer informing them of my decision.

Stephen Bush of the FT, inside politics piece on the subject. I would agree with this more about a legal dispute over anything else.

What does the bill do?

  • Lowers the age, people in Scotland can apply for gender-recognition certificate (GRC) to 16.
  • Removes the need for a medical diagnosis of gender dysphoria.

The question for the courts is Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill has implications for UK-wide equalities law. Any judicial review would be looking at that question not the use of section 35.

The basic problem is Scotland can’t reshape the process of changing your legal gender, without reshaping UK equalities law. Depending on who you ask the Equality Act 2010 matters here or does not. Another revision of the Equality Act is likely now required to clear up any problems.

The risk here draws attention to a broader constitutional issue. England’s sheer size means in practice it can set the law for everybody else. An example here is the equality law. I suspect the reason why Sturgeon wanted to push ahead, was to highlight that problem. Easier to sell this controversial bill, by amplifying the sovereignty argument. Making it a fight over the veto and power Westminster holds over Holyrood.

Maybe that last point is too cynical but has been ample time for a solution both sides can agree on. Maybe this is just a simple legal dispute with Hollyrood thinking it could pass this without causing any problems. Reality is a compromise must be found if you want to pass this bill.

*Small update Welsh government has published plans for gender recognition reforms. It will be seeking powers that allow it to do that. Host of other reforms in the works. 

I don’t like what is happening, toxic and controversial debate. I don’t enjoy watching trans people being punching bags. I support protecting LGBT+ rights, and trans rights and easier to access healthcare for trans people.

Journal, Labour, Politics

Update: Outcomes of a general election

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Last year in June I wrote, the outcome of the next general election has various scenarios.

First a quick recap on what has happened, the scandal train forced Boris out bringing down his govt and setting records. Liz Truss became prime minister and the Queen died, budget caused market panic and forced Liz Truss to resign after 44 days. Rishi sunak becomes prime minister after losing to Liz Truss, dealing with the mess and chaos. Internal and external shocks have battered the ruling party. Turmoil has been corrosive, with negative views about Boris soaking into the party brand. A trend that started a year before. Liz Truss’s short stay at number 10 just compounded what was happening. A slowing economy and high inflation added to the pile of unpopularity.

All of this has slowly been eating away at hard-earned favourable, now Labour is more trusted in everything. The golden goose that is economic competence is well now Labours. Soft leads that can harden with time. Even with polling leads and positive leaning favourable ratings, recovery for Labour would be remarkable. Labour has been declining from 2001 till 2019. Could argue the decline goes further back, with cultural link to Labour being weak. Labour needs more of every type of voter to close the gap. Tories have been able to reinvent themselves, transferring wealth to voters and keeping others indifferent.

Conservatives have created a cushion, a voter coalition built over the last two decades that deliver seats.  A base that is reliable, older homeowners and professionals. Labour on the other hand base is unreliable and not as evenly spread across seats. Suffering various forms of collapse, former safely reliable seats disappeared. A big problem is the volatility of voting patterns. Long-term trends speed up creating some wild results.

A general rule of thumb 6.5% swing against the current govt happens on average. Swing that size wipes out the current 80-seat majority, Rishi inherited. In the last decade, they have been gaining ground, and Labour has been losing ground. Keir needs a 15% swing or more needed for a majority of 1. It needs to gain 120 seats for a majority of one.  Therefore, we are about 3-4 cycles away from the new govt. You would think but the 2020s have been defined by disruption.

Blair was able to achieve 10.5% but needed 55 seats for a majority. Target seats during 1997 were far easier to pick up compared to today. A mix of indifference towards Blair plus an average swing of 14% towards Labour saw 150 seats gained.

Right now, the key points are the following

  • Labour in 2024 is fighting from a low point
  • Tories in 2024 are fighting from a high point
  • New seat boundaries
  • Voter ID laws
  • Polling leads between 14% to 22%
  • 16% swing from Tory to Labour
  • 20% / 30% won’t vote or unsure
  • Indifference to a labour govt

The trend against the Tories started back in 2021, volatility has only increased. Near universal increase in support for Labour across all age groups. Holding a majority with voters under the age of 50 now. Over the 50s are moving towards Labour, and those over 60s remain firmly Tory. Based on an average vote of 35,000, any seat with 15,000 majorities is within reach for Labour. Swings can be widely different between areas. Universal swings can only tell half the story, sometimes local swings can be much bigger. Once safe seats become way less safe overnight.

Here are the 8 outcomes, volatility in recent elections means they are all possible. The first four options are looking unlikely now.

  1. 80+ seat Tory majority
  2. 40+ seat Tory majority
  3. Small Tory majority
  4. Hung parliament another election
  5. Minority government
  6. Formal coalition
  7. Small Labour majority
  8. 40+ Labour majority

Trends at the moment make it impossible to see a Tory majority being returned. Party is unpopular and votes feel worse off. Labour has a mountain to climb, hung parliament or minority administration is possible. Massive recovery makes the party more competitive but unable to win enough seats. Seat totals mask a great set of results and major recovery. Some positive signs but still remain sceptical about current large poll leads. Huge levels of volatility within polls, something else could happen. Been here before unpopular govt big poll leads that disappeared. However current deficit makes it look unlikely Rishi can see a recovery. Loss of trust across a wide range of issues and feeling change is required. This time it could be different, voters as a whole are feeling the pain. Therefore I’m starting to think that the hung parliament and the big majority are being underpriced. Possible that after almost 15 years, collapse happens with Tories taking a big hit.

Anything from the 4th to 8th option looks likely.

Journal, Smite

Smite pro league rosters season 10

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Smite pro league rosters season 10

Ranking the rosters

  1. Kings
  2. Jade
  3. Oni
  4. Styx
  5. Leviathans
  6. Ravens

Really difficult to rank the rosters, we don’t know so much and won’t know how the team environment looks. What is clear all teams seem to value thinking about the game. Two more rosters are left and need to win play ins before they can join the league.

Camelot kings

The world championship roster stays together, last season approached the map in a focused farm manner. How the roster approaches the next season is worth keeping an eye on. Helped define how the play the map and played it better than anybody else. Not the best players in the world but they certainly are some of the best minds in the game. CaptainTwig and Genetics are both thinkers. Genetics is a mechanical monster. Two main sources of damage are mechanical machines, Jarcorr and BigManTingz. Variety rounds out the team, in the past, helped defined the meta.

Coach biggy helps keep the show on the road

Atlantis Leviathans

After the success of Kings Zapman needed some brains. Picking Adapting and Fineokay, certainly adds some brains to the team. A big question mark is over how flexible Adapting can be. Fineokay is one of the bigger brains in solo, a strong player at every stage. Slainy is more brain!

A trio of Zapman, Ronngyu, and Sheento are strong together anyway.

How Adapting plays with Ronngyu and Sheento will make or break this team. Fineokay is going to be key to success for him. Normally he creates space for the team. In the past, he has complained about being locked into certain picks. Flexibility in drafting along with picks and bans helped create success for the Kings. Selection of players who think about the game and consider how it fits together. Leadership here from everybody, they like to talk in the game too.

Jade dragons

Oni warriors were reborn with two new players. PBM and Lasbra give this team much-needed brains with leadership. PBM likes to play the game fast and loose, an aggressive player who likes to fight. The question is how much he shapes the direction. Active support player who plays off other players. Can he fit into this team? During his interview, he stated this year going to be a different style of play.

Lasbra is well at times night and day, depending on who is on his team.

Vote, Darez are talented players. Nika at times has shown his skill but follows the pack. He can be a thinker at times.

Unsure if the core of this team is the problem but it lacked leadership now it has it.

Styx Ferrymen

Thinkers with mechanical skilled monsters, this team is a collection of talent. Therefore this group is rather nasty, shaping the meta and pushing it.

Cyno does weird stuff and constantly pushes what is viable. Aror with Cyclonespin is both great minds together. Paul is just the mid version of Adapting, a mechanical god that is one step ahead. Baskin and Cyclonespin are both considered two of the best smite players in the world. New coach Realz provides a social edge to this already game-knowledge-heavy team. I don’t expect this roster to pop off early but get better.

Highland ravens

Barra ranked league of extraordinary gentlemen. Just Barra and Ven remain together with a new supp, solo and mid required. Hurri is the support, bringing a brain, shot calling and draft knowledge. Not the best support often has found it difficult to make an impact. Scream is a hot or cold jungle that gets added. Hard to say if that is a downgrade or not here. Mask is the new solo for this team. Lack of leadership shot calling and draft knowledge hurt this team in the past. High hopes that this team has what the bolts lacked.

Oni Warriors 

On paper, this roster is full of creativity and flexibility, unconventional with huge amounts of unpredictability. Something dangerous about a roster like this, they know each other and know the game. The question is who leads this roster and in what direction they go.  Jake plays bruiser-style support but is unconventional. Throw in Pegon and SOT, and see the game in creative new ways. Panitom follows the curve of the meta, and Netrioid is similar. This team is young and full of talent.

Jake plays similarly to the joker full of chaos and creating huge problems.

Smite

Smite season 10 first impressions

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Smite season 10 first impressions 

You can find Smite season 10 patch notes here. A brand-new conquest map, some major itemization changes with God changes. The promise is 4 major meta-shifting updates this year, changing the map and more. Last year we only had some very minor changes that did not really shake the meta much. Same promise has been made before so who knows.

The public test server is live and previews the new season. I have only played one conquest game, matchmaking for PTS is disabled due to the low player count. Judging balance is impossible to do at the moment.

The release date is the 24th of January. Outside of some balance changes or delaying certain things from releasing this is the final patch.

The new god is Surtr, a Norse fire giant. Surtr heavily inspires fire giant design, looping into his gameplay design and feel. Norse warrior takes mechanics and attacks from fire giant. Some of the people behind smite have used him in show matches before. Now normal people without access to dev tools can finally play a version of him. The art team has done all the way to animations are top tier.

Does mean a new character will replace him in the fire giant pit. The layout of the pit is different but the same old attacks as before. Would have liked new attacks or changing how that boss works. Balance change here is increasing the health gain, reducing critical strike damage.

  • Fixed an issue where Starter Item upgrades were missing and couldn’t be built in the Console God Builder

Finally, that bug is fixed been around for at least a year.

Conquest changes

With so many changes, won’t be covering all of them.

Overall changes; new map is wider, new camp locations and new camps, leashing changes, longer buff timers and changes to how it works, roaming jungle minions with random spawning and more. Whole map is different, balance changes spread across the whole map. Going to take some time to learn all these changes.  Reducing match length respawn time penalty is going go unnoticed but that a big change.

I have walked around the new map and played just one game. Wider map is only half the story, narrow and taller. Much hard to see around corners as a result. Certain objectives once you commit you have to be sure nobody is coming. Entrances to lanes feel a bit narrower with less vision.  In many ways the map feels alive and colourful. Looks rather good honestly considering the unreal engine is older. Not noticed any performance issues. Learning this map is going to take time. Side lanes have more things to do. Middle lane I got small fear that clear heavy gods are going to be king. New map is overdue, we see how things play around.

Matchmaking changes

Ranked is now cross play between all platforms which is great in theory.

Ranked Modes aren’t the only ones getting matchmaking changes. Normal Queues will be changing back to the Non-Timed queue system. This has 2 primary advantages. The first is the return of Multi-Queue, where players can queue for many modes all at once. This feature is great for regions or times where populations are lower, and helps make sure everyone can play more SMITE. The other advantage is flexibility. The Timed Queue system is very rigid, when the queue pops it does the best it can and fires off the matches. It actually creates more sub-optimal matches with that style. With the change back to Non-Timed queues we expect to do make some heavy adjustments to our matchmaking systems to continually improve the experience across Year 10.

Not sure how I feel about this. Ranked will continue to use the time queue system which is an interesting choice. Given the reasoning given here I’m bit confused as to why. Surely it would mean sub-optimal matches for ranked? Guess we wait and see what happens.

Different shards not just vision which players never used much at all.

Items

Reduction of the total number of item trees and reordering. Seems to be push towards simplification when comes to balance here. Finally understanding that giving everything just leads to bloat and power creep. Hybrid style items here get a huge rework. Underused stuff is being removed loads on the cutting room floor. Some mechanics do find new homes.

Frostbound hammer becomes less frustrating, weaker slow that easier to counter. No longer can you get pinned down forever.

Healing

Healing Reduction Items (Anti-Heal) are often a necessity in SMITE. The passive effect is powerful and applicable in more situations than most players expect. It has always been a challenge getting people to buy them, sometimes even at the pro level. This year we are giving all of these items new and unique passives to make them more interesting to build, but also balancing that with a variety of nerfs to not push these items over the top.

About time we redesign and rework healing, self-sustain and group. These sorts of sticking plasters have been happening for years at this point. Not sure if global anti heal debuff exists still. Healing in smite is heavily linked to damage and power. Lack of items means many healers can’t play other roles. Instead, they become massive lane bullies whole overwhelm players. One or two just straight up cause havoc.

Something needs to be done about the level of healing, scaling, group heals and sustain in general. This would however mean a massive redesign and rebalance across gods. I don’t have much faith that the designers will come to similar conclusion to me anytime soon.

Couple further item changes which I can’t see doing much. Winged blade new passive is within a tiny radius and not helpful. Compared to spectral armour new passive 55 units about basic attack range vs 30. New passive is rather good.

PASSIVE – You take 40% reduced bonus damage from Physical Critical Strikes. When you are hit by a Critical Strike, you and allies within 55 units take an additional 5% reduced bonus damage from Physical Critical Strikes, stacking up to 4 times and lasting for 8s.

This sounds rather good; I don’t think this going be overpowered.

Cloak tree gets some major shifts. Some more new items which are being added. New idea is being added with abyssal stone.

PASSIVE – Successful ability damage to an enemy god applies a debuff that afflicts them with 20% Negative CDR for 4s. This can only occur once every 6s.

Even if you ignore the passive, you still have a good item. Long list of item shifts which impact most classes. Starter items get some changes, war flag could be good. Hunters get some item shifts and changes. My hot take here is like healing heavier handed rebalance and rethink is needed. Creating early, middle and late game hunters with real weaknesses. You could argue that a flaw most classes have but hunters have a huge power jump at certain points. Decreasing base power by 5 but increasing scaling is questionable.

I don’t understand why class bonuses exist but that a thing now. Seems like a blanket change across the board. Most major change here is base magical protections; certain gods have a higher base number compared to others.

God balance 

Ishtar reducing her early game clear, means less pressure good change overall. Achilles gets some help with clearing minion waves; I don’t like this change at all. King Arthur gets minor clear damage increase. Vulcan changes are caused by the fact he no longer crippled in backfire. That pretty much the theme here, fixing past mistakes or addressing issues. Some weird why did you do this change moments in this list, like Fenrir who gets attack speed stim.

Vamana gets a huge shift, no longer can a single relic hard counter him.

COLOSSAL FURY
  • The Healing over time has been removed from this ability
  • Added 30% Physical Lifesteal while Vamana is Colossal
  • Increased Shield from 1% of Max Health per 0.2s to 2% of Max Health per 0.2

Making use of his passive gives you free power, jungle version becomes much worse. No longer having that heal makes diving much harder. Maybe Vamana gets more play with these changes and returns.

In conclusion

Alright that took me a while to review and look over the patch notes. Overall, I’m pretty happy with the changes and look forward to playing season 10. New map is lovely and should shake up the game. Even after one game in PTS, I had fun even if the game was unbalanced as hell. Blackeye is stupidly good at smite. Season 10 is the season of monsters.

Journal

The Russian invasion of Ukraine 1 year almost

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine 1 year almost

Invasion is ongoing with no sign of ending anytime soon. Taking over a country is no easy task, Ukraine is rather big, and you need a rather large force to do it. An original assault was spread across various fronts. Spreading the attacking forces thin across a huge front line. Normally attacking armies use strikes to weaken the defending forces. A limited number of strikes happened on the same day but nothing on the scale was needed. Modern militaries make heavy use of intel, air support, and cooperation between every single unit. Unprepared and expecting an easy victory Russian forces crossed the border.

Putin was told, it would be easy, Kyiv would fall in days. Therefore, the rest of Ukraine would fall within days and a puppet government could be installed. Deployed men, and equipment got stuck in a traffic jam outside of Kyiv. Heavily armoured units without infantry to provide protection, no fuel or ammo became an easy target.  Sitting ducks as supply trucks and could not refuel or provide ammo. Defenders went for the soft underbelly of the advance, supply lines. The humiliation of the Air force and Navy. The air force was unable to gain control of the sky. Russia’s black sea fleet flagship was sunk by the country without any real navy power. 

Ukraine’s resistance focused on defensive operations around Kyiv in the early days. Resourceful using whatever they could to repel the attackers. Lacking the manpower to overwhelm the attackers across various fronts. Instead, they have adapted and become flexible, attacking valuable targets like supply lines or command posts. Largely an artillery army, using dumb weapons on mass to overwhelm. Both the Air force and Navy acted as artillery unable to gain the upper hand. Artillery is very resource intense, a bunch of trucks are needed to supply missiles and that means you can’t send fuel or food somewhere else.  Slowly the list of targets started to grow, command posts or ammo depots or fuel depots. For months now slowly grinding down the ability to resupply frontlines. Reinforcements happen which weaken and pull resources to someplace else. Starts to become impossible to hold, can’t resupply troops and not enough manpower to defend. Counteroffensive takes place and the retreat of Russian troops happens.  Once a crack appears you apply pressure, leading to some bold and stunning attacks. 

Unable to secure Kyiv, Russian troops regrouped and attacked in the east. Taking as much land as possible and calling it Russia. East and south-east creating a landbridge is all that remains of the Russian landgrab. The best soldiers are killed or wounded, and the best equipment is destroyed or can’t be repaired. Being unable to replace or produce a similar kit is going to be a big problem.  At the same time, the quality of Ukraine’s gear has only improved. NATO standard kit is being provided. Russians have been destroying parts of Ukraine without any care. Completely destroying cities, attacking power plants and more. Forced relocation, stories about what has happened are horrific. 

No sign that is conflict is going to end any time soon. The next phase is against a dug-in Russian army. The Russians have been throwing men at one small city. Unclear who goes on the offensive first, NATO heavy weapons have been requested. 

Maybe I was wrong in calling for NATO troops, weapons appear to be having a major impact. Still wish NATO acted sooner in providing that support. 

Journal

ChatGPT Artificial intelligence or machine learning?

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ChatGPT Artificial intelligence or machine learning?

OpenAI created ChatGPT a chatbot, built using the OpenAI language model to create human-like text responses. A prototype that is fine-tuned quickly generated attention over its detailed responses. Chatbots have existed for many years at this point. Remember the dozen or more that existed in the early days of instant messaging programs? I can think of a couple that companies use to help provide support. What makes this one different is the detailed responses and wide knowledge pool. A bonus here is the human-sounding responses. The bot uses old data sets with rules to limit responses, no hate speech is allowed. With a little bit of prompt engineering, you can bend the rules or break them. Sometimes it can be uneven factual accuracy or tricked.

It is a huge cybersecurity risk, capable to write software. Therefore, creating a massive issue for open-source software, writing phishing emails and more. Loads of journalists have incorrectly called this artificial intelligence, just advanced machine learning and not yet created an artificial general intelligence, that remains far off. On the surface, some of its responses look impressive but they can be flat-out wrong. Far from perfect and needs more work.

Google uses an algorithm which draws on machine learning. Using common patterns from users to direct you towards the search results. Not just one model or algorithm at play here but loads. Many Google engineers will tell you; it is alive. Similar comments from people who work at Facebook. Big tech firms have benefited from a light touch but slow, the framework around their business. I’m already concerned about facial recognition being widely used with limited laws suited for it. I do hope that this style of software doesn’t get slow or has no oversight.

OpenAI has two arms one for-profit and one not-for-profit. You could put it to use on various websites providing customer support or a useful chatbot directing them to products. Remains unclear the monetization strategy for the software. The worry it ends up in hands of bad actors for a quick buck writing code or attacking companies.

Another problem here that is the datasets being used are free. Already problems around machine learning tools that produce art without references. Therefore, putting artists out of business. I don’t think that going to happen but going to cause conflict. As chatGPT shows, you need up-to-date datasets. Content creators that feed the system for free, Google uses that input to create an advertising output suited to you. I can see Google looking closely at harvesting that for its business. The company already has an eye on TikTok to index its own service. TikTok has regulatory problems around how it handles copyright and user data. I suspect more companies are going to face that problem soon enough.  The age of big tech companies in a wild west with light touch could be over. That would mean revisiting copyright laws and more.

ChatGPT could operate in a world with three major bodies shaping the digital space. A growing divide between China, EU and USA regulatory orbit. Light touch low regulation that helped create ChatGPT could find itself limited in what European data it can harvest.

High-risk gamble to create a chatbox for websites of the future. I could see companies upgrading to it and teaching it the knowledge it needs. Not sure if investors are going to get a good return here. I remain sceptical about it being AI. On the bright side does have some healthcare uses, a helpful tool to record how people feel. Investors better are willing to take the long-term view, going to take a while before OpenAI makes a return.

In conclusion, I think ChatGPT is machine learning with a human-sounding output. Imperfect with sometimes out-of-date information. Exciting watching things happen slowly. Maybe another use is a debug tool helping programmers write code.

Thoughts

James Bond revisiting the movies

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James Bond revisiting the movies

Sean Connery

  • Dr No (1962)
  • From Russia With Love (1963)
  • Goldfinger (1964)
  • Thunderball (1965)
  • You Only Live Twice (1967)
  • Diamonds Are Forever (1971)

For modern eyes, these movies are full of problematic scenes. As society’s values changed, movies offer a small insight into the culture at the time. Bigotry exists and these movies display it. Reflection on what the Bond character was in the books. A long list of sexism, and racism. The treatment of women has always been poor and remains poor even in modern times.

Sean helped to create and craft an onscreen character. Cult classics that is the foundation of the movie series. Goldfinger and Thunderball are Sean’s best movies here. Sense of humour with some gadgets, at times the plot can be goofy. You Only Live Twice being set in Japan creates some awkward moments. Cooperation between nations, the British being surprised at what Japan can do. Diamonds are forever at times can be pretty camp. The last movie is the worse movie he did. Some interesting concepts faking somebody’s identity, a powerful rich reclusive figure whose business empire is stolen. Sean was out of shape but having fun in this movie.

George Lazenby

  • On Her Majesty’s Secret Service (1969)

Faithful adaptations of a Fleming novel, creating one of the strongest movies in the series. A huge focus on the plot over gadgets pays off. Bond girl here is not completely useless, she the start of a sort of empowered figure. Resourceful tough and almost equal to Bond himself. Bit of troubled history with production and George’s behaviour on set. The actor viewed the series as over and never came back. I do think he could be a great bond if he carried on. His first major film acting credit, performance was excellent given the script. Connery was too busy to reprise his role. Telly Savalas being American is a minor complaint but overall good performance. Can’t help but wonder what Sean Connery and Donald Pleasence reprising their roles would be like here. Sean Connery as Bond and Donald Pleasence as Blofeld. I do think both would make the movie even better.

This movie is easy to top 3 for me.

Roger Moore

  • Live And Let Die (1973)
  • The Man With The Golden Gun (1974)
  • The Spy Who Loved Me (1977)
  • Moonraker (1979)
  • For Your Eyes Only (1981)
  • Octopussy (1983)
  • A View To A Kill (1985)

A decade of camp is here, and Moore’s movies are full of one-liners. The far less serious affair, the plot was second to gadgets and jokes. The Spy Who Loved Me was meant to be followed by For Your Eyes Only. Star Wars was a new hope success in 1977, making sure the next bond movie would be space themed. Moonraker moved away from the source material, a rather weak movie and one of the worse ones. The space battle is great but the effects need a bit more polish. For your eyes only is rather good, feels similar to Secret Service. A view To A Kill has its moments with some good ideas. Just a shame not much is done with the better ideas not explored. Moore is getting a bit old for the role at this point. By the 80s action, heroes were the big trend. Octopussy and A View To A Kill both get more camp and sillier.

My favourites here are The Spy Who Loved Me and For Your Eyes Only. Both are more grounded and realistic.

Timothy Dalton

  • The Living Daylights (1987)
  • Licence To Kill (1989)

Dalton bond was an action hero, far more serious in the two movies. Therefore, ending with Goldeneye, ends his arc. With two movies under his belt, Dalton quit the role. Living Daylights is far lighter, and Licence To Kill is darker. Featuring an independent-minded deadly skilled agent doing whatever it takes.  You can get a feeling bond is getting sick of his job, and that carries on. LTK is about a revenge mission against a drug dealer, a deadly game of cat and mouse. The tone is far darker than anything else the series has done. Character flaws almost get him killed, but everybody lets him do the dirty work. Americans and unknown Asian nations let him get closer. A great shame Dalton did not do Goldeneye. Years later Daniel Craig would revisit a couple of ideas.

Living daylights is a sleeper hit and rather good.

Pierce Brosnan

  • Goldeneye (1995)
  • Tomorrow Never Dies (1997)
  • The World Is Not Enough (1999)
  • Die Another Day (2002)

Both Pierce and Timothy became top picks to play bond. Pierce was busy staring in Remington Steele, unable to reach an agreement splitting his time between the two projects. Unable to get the original choice. Timothy ended up getting the part, and Steele was cancelled. Legal problems around James Bond’s rights, with poor box office performance, resulted in a 6-year gap. This time gap meant that Timothy was out, and Pierce was in. Hit and miss when it comes to his run. The lack of good material lets him down, not the talent which is a shame.

Goldeneye hit that balance between not going over the top or being too crazy. Villian here feels very much equal to Bond. Goldeneye’s legacy is deeply connected to the video game on N64. For many fans including myself, Pierce’s best movie is goldeneye. After that movies swap between hitting the right balance or going too far.

Tomorrow Never Dies this movie was meant to be way more contemporary and connected to current affairs. Conflict between China and United Kingdom over hand over of Hong kong. Final script centred around media mogul expanding his reach by creating a conflict between China and UK. From the start huge production woes, screenplay faced major issues. Scrapping the script just days before filming. Falling out between cast members, chaotic writing process, quite a surprise the movie even came out.

The World Is Not Enough was more grounded and realistic based around oil. Die Another Day is another low point, first act starts off grounded before going off the rails. Bond just jumping the shark, so many times it hard to keep count. Therefore the vast collection of mad ideas just cover everything. Many ways old classic bond movie feels dated by this time. Leaving bond with just gadgets and this movie has them just for the sake of it. Plot within the first act starts off strong just falls apart quickly. Nothing holds the plot together, weak villain and other elements just create a mess. Bond getting captured, tortured a good starting point. Warning signs had existed for years, Moore era was the start of it.

Daniel Craig

  • Casino Royale (2006)
  • Quantum of Solace (2008)
  • Skyfall (2012)
  • SPECTRE (2015)
  • No Time to Die (2021)

Casino Royale is outstanding, Craig nails the role of Bond. His casting choice was questioned, but his performance quickly silenced his critics. Quantum of Solace is an action movie without a plot. Another bond movie hurt by production issues, mainly this time the writers strike. I don’t think the movie is that bad but not the same quality as Casino Royale. Skyfall returns to highs of Daniel Craigs first outing. I consider it the best movie in the series. Following movies keep the quality high, good plot, good villains and enough action. Back to basics Bond that feels at home.

My top 6 movies are the following, I don’t think the order matters to much here.

  1. Skyfall
  2. On her majesty secret service
  3. Thunderball
  4. Living daylights
  5. The Spy Who loved me
  6. Goldeneye

Worse movies

  1. Die another day
  2. The Man With The Golden Gun
  3. Moonraker
  4. Diamonds Are Forever
  5. Quantum of Solace
  6. Live And Let Die

In conclusion James bond had it up and downs. Roger Moore has 3 out 6 of the worse movies. Mix of classic bond in that list and modern. Best movies has one from everybody. Living Daylights is a sleeper hit that hard to fault.

Amazon now owns the film rights and the studio. We don’t know what they plan to do. Internet retailer has been in the process of downsizing it hardware division. Remains unclear about the streaming strategy going forward. Streaming services have become huge money sinks, theaters however have remained resilience. Amazon can sell you the blueray boxset and let you watch it own movies.

Reports are Amazon plans on spending $1 billion a year on movies. Budget that big would be close to old guard spending plans. Given the cost of movies that looks rather hopeful, lean production still costs a decent amount. Amazon Studios has been rather successful with movie production. TV series have been a huge issue for Amazon.

We are going to be waiting for the next James Bond movie. I’m expecting a couple years before next one even begins production.

Journal

Grief and a bookshelf

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Grief and a bookshelf

On my bookshelf in the corner just out of view. Sits the ashes of both my dead parents. It is a timely reminder of grief. Named glass is home for one, I don’t know what to do with it or the glass. Other sits in a small box, housed within a heart. Every time I dust, I have to imagine it is something else. 

I try not to dwell on their deaths. One day hopefully I can talk to them once more. I do want to move on and close that chapter.  I have changed my mind about assisted dying and now support it. Experience watching terminal illness, no help with the suffering. The last 48 hours are horrible memories, watching people fade. The final moments are painful memories. Healthcare workers deserve so much respect. Nurses are angels that frankly deserve better pay and conditions. For this reason, I support the striking nurses. 

Not going to share the details because I don’t want the final moments to define it. Any anniversary for me is another day. I don’t see the point in remembering worse moments in life. I can clearly remember everything. How the weather was, brightness of the lighting. Hate to admit but I find grief hard to deal with. I got better but don’t feel right still. I keep meaning to get therapy but I don’t want to wait. Not even sure how much I need.  

Christmas offers a reflection what you have and to be thankful for. May not be here but love remains.

Journal

Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX

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Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX

Crypto winter is here, FTX exchange has collapsed. Founder CEO Sam Bankman-Fried has resigned.  The company has entered into bankruptcy under chapter 11.  The newest scandal in a long list is drama and personality. The Crypto world is a wild west, moving on vibes. Cycling between massive highs and lows. Bad actors are commonplace, abusing cult of personality. Coinbase ran a story based on the leaked balance sheet for FTX. Huge liabilities with few assets. Assets held by the company were its own token. Begs the question what happened to all the real money?

Sam’s former business Alameda acted as a trading firm for FTX. Herd panicked withdrawal coins stored, unable to cover withdrawals. Talk about a bailout and takeover came and disappeared. The company went bankrupt within 72 hours. Journalists had spent months asking questions. How could promised low-risk but high-yield return exists? A derivative platform that took huge risks and used customer deposits. Acting as a casino with a bank-style function. The truth was simple FTX was a Ponzi scheme. Giant fraud that used client’s funds, unclear what happened with the money.

Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me

Fried promised to reform the system and be different. Wanting to make his business model legal for more victims. As it turns out he was the same old story. Flashy sales pitch, taking customers’ money. Sam tried to look legit, buying lobbying power. Biggest so far but doubt the last. A long list of scandals within the crypto world. Conmen and scams are commonplace. Luckily the scams have not infected the rest of the system. Law has been slow to act, slowly building a case. The fact nobody wanted or could provide oversight is a problem.  Poor accounting practices, make Ponzi schemes common. Grey area trying to do just enough to function within the existing financial markets. Exchanges are the poster boy for Fintech.

New CEO was appointed during bankruptcy. John Ray with over 40 years of experience including Enron.

“Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here. “From compromised systems integrity and faulty regulatory oversight abroad, to the concentration of control in the hands of a very small group of inexperienced, unsophisticated and potentially compromised individuals, this situation is unprecedented.”

Source

Words are shocking. Why was nobody looking at how the corporate structure looked or worked? Why was this allowed within existing frameworks? Blamed is shared across many regulatory bodies. Worse is most likely yet to come. Other exchanges have similar problems, Genesis looks likely to go under.

Sam did an interview for Vox. Hard to argue Sam is anything other than a fraud. Carefully forming an image, that was one big lie. Against the advice of his lawyers, he keeps giving interviews. Normally you would stay low and say nothing. Providing much in terms of evidence against himself. The lack of paper tail is making matters complicated. Going to take some time before any legal case is taken against him. The American justice system is slow but unstoppable. Authorities around the world are watching things carefully.

Regulators are moving to freeze or halt operations. The Justice Department and S.E.C are investigating with others following suit. Big questions for the Bahamas, HQ for FTX. The Bahamas created a light-touch regulatory framework. Played host to SBF, hosting a cryptocurrency conference. Danced to his tune, now they have eggs on their face. Huge questions about the corporate governance system. The reputation for the islands to do business is now ruined.

The lesson here is regulatory oversight is needed and regulation is required. Can’t let companies write the rules for themselves. Cooperation across borders with regulatory oversight is also required. Bitcoin has a degree of built-in transparency, its exchanges do not. If exchanges want access to existing financial markets, they need to follow the rules.

Binance decided to publish BTC proof of reserves. Now serious questions about that exchange and reports of criminal activity. Not exactly a great time to be linked with the cryptocurrency world at the moment. This is just the tip of the iceberg flood of news stories. The big problem here is the ecosystem is controlled by a small number of players. Deeply interconnected relationships slowly destroy each other.

More worrying is the connections he was able to forge. With people not asking questions. Basic due diligence went out the window. The good news is that venture capitalists were fools, the rest of the system avoided touching it. I don’t think technology has a future but lessons must be learnt.

Fear is contagion from this could spread far and wide. Bringing down the whole cryptocurrency house of cards. So far contagion has been limited but if Binance is next who knows?

Update –

I started writing this about one month ago. SBF has now been arrested and charged with defrauding investors. According to the New York Times, 12 charges in total so far. The US has requested his extradition from the Bahamas. Bahamian authorities have opened their own investigations. Therefore, starting his legal woes could take years before everything is settled. Anybody involved with FTX is likely to also be in legal hot water.  Before he was arrested, leaked a transcript of his testimony for congress.

Possibly more charges can come his way as more things are uncovered. Americans are claiming oversight over Sam’s crimes, the Bahamas wants to review his crimes too. Long fight legal battle is just starting..