Category: Thoughts

Thoughts on various subjects

Thoughts

Storm ciaran

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Storm Ciaran

This was a powerful storm, bringing fast winds and heavy rain. Inland areas have natural barriers against the weather. Talking about hills, trees and other natural barriers that exist in huge numbers. Coastal zones don’t have that luxury. Humans love to live near coastal areas making the problem even worse.

Windy weather creates falling trees and damage to property due to stuff not being secured down. Heavy rain creates a deadly flooding problem, all that water works its way into the river system. Grounds already saturated can’t hold any more water, and new rainwater starts to fill up rivers downstream. At some stage that means rivers bursting their banks as the water tries to go somewhere. High amounts of rain can overwhelm human-built water networks or structures.

Climate change is making the world warmer, and wetter and weather patterns more extreme. All this causes huge headaches as people demand to be protected. For some people that means it makes no sense to build protections or prevention schemes. Living in high-risk areas makes insurance impossible, becomes unviable to live there anymore. On a global scale that means huge amounts of people moving somewhere else.

Flood protection schemes only work if you have a strong set of prevention schemes to work alongside them. Nature has the answer already, wetlands, flood plains and more. Water is rather difficult to control at the best of times. Yet we keep trying to engineer complicated solutions when the answers already exist. I’m very lucky that I live in a low-risk area but I still face disruption from storms like this. The odd road may end up being flooded or a railway line gets flooded. 

Dying days of this government means we are unlikely to get a rethink about this problem.  Very quickly going to become a problem. If storms like this become even more common the calls to do something will be deafening. It will mean having to deal with vested interests and honest discussions about the hard choices ahead. I don’t have much faith in the quality maybe things will be different.

Journal, Politics, Thoughts

Private schools and VAT

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I have updated this post wrote it last night in a bit of a rush before bed and published it.

I’m against private schools in principle. Giving people an unfair advantage, entrenching that with a massive impact on the establishment. They are designed to keep people at the top, out of fear of people’s social class falling for their children. Will this issue shape how I vote in any future election no, other issues which are far more important to me. I would rather private schools were banned or any special treatment removed so they were no longer viable. Removing artificial social barriers is important to society. 

Rachel Reeves’s conference speech on private schools in 2021.

Right now, private schools enjoy charitable status which makes them exempt from both business rates and from VAT at a cost to the taxpayer of £1.7bn every year.

But conference here’s the truth: Private schools are not charities.

And so we will end that exemption and put that money straight into our state schools.

That is what a Labour government will do.

Two ways to interpret what Rachel said. Labour will remove charitable status or the exemptions. Two years later tax exemptions are being changed to reform private schools.

Opposition parties are reactive don’t have the ability to be proactive, and don’t have the power of government. Unable to control the narrative or pull the levers of the executive to their whims. What they talk about and give air time matters. Getting that message out is hard for opposition parties. Labour has focused on the sense of unfairness, and private schools are part of that push. Possible extra money going straight to state schools, parents have noticed schools having funding issues.

Labour’s argument is charitable status was shorthand for adding VAT to school fees. The media is reporting this as a U-turn, I don’t think it is. I do think it communication misstep by Keir.  With conference season coming soon, better to get it out with nobody listening. Not expecting voters to hear about this or notice it. I’m expecting it going be an important plank and talked about, with the Labour narrative driving the headlines.

The plan is to remove VAT exemption but leave that charitable status. Schools could get around this by lowering fees, and donations increase. Unless donations are no longer considered tax-free gifts. Therefore reducing potential VAT revenue. Changing the law can be a rather hard and time-consuming task. Simple quick fixes can leave an awful mess to clean up later. Watch this space this could join a long list. Maybe Labour plans to look at other tax exemptions.

My gut is telling me doing it matters more compared to how it is done. This is one way to implement adding VAT to school fees. They are sticking to their guns on the issue. I have a sneaky feeling voters care more about the action, the VAT tax break disappearing is easy to understand. One thing is clear this obvious difference between the main parties and Labour is sticking to it.

May not agree with final outcome. I do share deep-seated concerns about what Labour priorities are. Feeding into worse insights from a narrow group of voters and failure to control the narrative. Deeply unhappy and have not made up my mind about who I’m going to vote for in the next election.

Keir’s critics have been attacking him for ditching his leadership pledges and changing his policy platform. Some of that criticism is largely unfair, but this is another example they can use. A trade-off that leaves open an exemption, donations go up fees go down. Donations are tax-free, which helps elite older schools the most. If your ideology lean going much further you won’t be happy.

Part of me is willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. The other part of me is deeply worried that his priorities don’t align with my own. Never going to get a party that aligns 100% with your views and that’s something I’ve gotten used to. Britain won’t vote for radical revolution at the ballot box. To me seems people have yet to accept that and understand long term battle is required. Seems far too many people who frankly have not realised that and going to be disappointed until the end of time.

Path to general election has started we don’t know when.

Journal, Thoughts

Hot dry summer, warm wet autumn

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Hot dry summer, warm wet autumn

The hot dry summer is over, and warm autumn begins. Last year we had a wet warm winter. Seasons are changing, hot dry humid summers with wet warmer winters or colder. As temperature increases, heatwaves become common. The climate models show possible consequences but not everything. Once in a lifetime, extreme weather events are becoming more common. Volatility in the climate system has far-reaching impacts. Less water means lower rivers that impact shipping routes, higher sea levels mean ports need to move. The security of water and food comes into question rather quickly. 

The most obvious example is food crops, irregular rain means lower yields or floods or ruined farmland. Long periods of dry conditions are also a threat, the result is irrigation. With less water supply that causes a huge strain on what can be produced and how much. Suddenly water pollution looks rather important to and health of the water cycle. Everybody would need to use less water when water scarcity comes into question.  Humanity will have to adapt, be more efficient, find resistance crops or grow something else. A solution may be growing mixed fields over a single use. Old farming methods may be the answer. Tightly packed greenhouses use less water with a lower overall footprint could be the answer. Meat production requires livestock feed, less of that means less meat can be produced.

What worries me is nobody concerned about the scarcity of resources. 

Labour, Politics, Thoughts

Labour proposal changes to the gender recognition act

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Labour proposal changes to the gender recognition

 

Anneliese Dodds shadow women and equalities secretary of the Labour Party. Writing in the Guardian plans to reform transgender rights.  Gay rights have largely been won, the queer community has moved towards transgender rights as the next campaign. Thus the opposition has moved to fight back against transgender rights. Voices have helped convince people to accept and support the movements. The trans community lacks mainstream voices but has slowly been getting heard. Often forget about when it comes to queer culture and history. The queer community has been winning the long war over social attitudes, still plenty left to do. Rolling back hard-earned rights is still possible and should be defended. Progress is slow but happening even during my lifetime the shift has been remarkable. Often we can forget just how far things have come. 

People have other priorities and don’t think about it or give a shit. One Labour MP in pink news. Labour has decided to try to neutralize the issue, to bring voters with it towards a compromise. You can disagree with that compromise but a positive first step. Instead of doing nothing, Labour has decided to have something to say. 

Conservatives’ plan is trying to divide and rally its supporters. 12 paragraphs and 3 making that point. A long history of throwing vulnerable groups into the dirt, both mainstream parties have done it. Rishi Sunak has nothing else to offer with a deeply divided party. 5 pledges looking increasingly difficult to achieve. 

Let’s go over what Dodds has written and understand the direction. Updating the Gender Recognition Act is a key plank, the wording used is important. 

 So we will modernise, simplify and reform the gender recognition law to a new process. We will remove invasive bureaucracy and simplify the process.

Modernise, simplify and reform it into a new process. Now we don’t know the details but that sounds promising. Thus removing bureaucracy and simplifying being mentioned twice is rather important.

The gender recognition act is UK-wide legislation, and updating it would apply to devolved regions.  Scotland tried last year unsuccessful update it locally, Scottish reform would impact England and Wales.

You can find my none expert summary here. I support self-ID and reforming the GRA to allow it. If the trans community wants it willing to support it. 

Highlighting the hidden constitutional truth Westminster holds control and devolution is a bit of a patchwork.  SNP purposed legislation was watertight and well-designed and had cross-party support. Dodds does a pot kettle-black moment doing the thing she earlier accused Lee Anderson of doing earlier. New purposed Scottish GRA slotted nicely into the safeguards and protections provided by the equality act. 

Disappointing hearing more misinformation, blocking the Scottish Act was on constitutional grounds. Worth keeping an eye on Labour plans for constitutional reform. 

We will not make the same mistakes. The requirement to obtain a medical diagnosis of gender dysphoria remains an important part of accessing a gender recognition certificate. That’s especially the case now that gender dysphoria is no longer classified – and stigmatised – as a psychiatric disorder. It can help refer trans people into the NHS for support services – nearly a quarter of trans people don’t know how to access transition-related healthcare. Requiring a diagnosis upholds legitimacy of applications and confidence in the system.

I don’t have experience with transgender healthcare or know how it works. Reads like a push towards easier to access healthcare, support along with training. Loads of questions here and detail will matter. However, this could be further restrictions on transgender people. With loads of mistrust about Labour’s true intentions, transphobic statements from party members.

The current process also requires a panel of anonymous doctors to decide something of momentous significance, based on reams of intrusive medical paperwork and evidence of any surgery. This is demeaning for trans people and meaningless in practice. A diagnosis provided by one doctor, with a registrar instead of a panel, should be enough.

More questions over answers here, including primary or secondary care. Waiting lists for certain specialists are years long already. The concern here is restricting care it is the real goal. Does this mean new training, advice and extra funding? Worth keeping an eye on Labour’s overall healthcare reforms. A push towards more self-referrals is part of it. 

Moreover, let me be clear: we are proud of the Equality Act and will oppose any Conservative attempt to undermine it. We will protect and uphold it in government, including both its protected characteristics and its provision for single-sex exemptions.

We need to recognise that sex and gender are different – as the Equality Act does. We will make sure that nothing in our modernised gender recognition process would override the single-sex exemptions in the Equality Act. Put simply, this means that there will always be places where it is reasonable for biological women only to have access. Labour will defend those spaces, providing legal clarity for the providers of single-sex services.

Changing how GRA works in the UK won’t impact the equality act and disinformation or misinformation to suggest otherwise. The language makes me uneasy reading it, complicated and subject full of fear on both sides. Leaves me wondering if this would be a positive step after all. I support self-ID, unsure if this would be a step towards it. Leaning towards it would be a step towards it. 

Stonewall statement

It is wrong to suggest that safeguards cannot exist with a de-medicalised model. The Scottish Gender Recognition Reform Bill was the most scrutinised piece of legislation ever passed by the Scottish Parliament and was passed by a solid majority of MSPs with support drawn from all parties.

Safeguarding was extensively considered by Scottish parliamentarians over the course of the Bill, including several amendments that were tabled and included to explicitly bolster protections. One such successful amendment was by the Scottish Conservative MSP Jamie Greene, which created a new statutory aggravation offence connected to fraudulently obtaining a GRC. The safeguards in the Scottish Bill go much further than the UK Gender Recognition Act, and are much stronger and more specific than a GP being involved in the process, as was suggested by Labour today.

Trans people’s needs and priorities along with input are required for any reform to be a success. Legal recognition is pointless without healthcare, anti-discrimination and education playing a role. The experience of the gay community shows the importance. 

Mermaids have this on GRA reform worth reading. 

Mermaids’ Manifesto for GRA Reform

Thoughts

OceanGate hubris

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OceanGate hubris

On Sunday a submersible started a 11-hour journey to tour the shipwreck of the Titanic. After 1 hour and 45 minutes, Oceangate lost contact with the Titan. Thus beginning an international search and rescue operation to find out what happened. Specialist assets took days before reaching the site. Oceangate launch and recovery ship needed help. The launch site is a remote area but Oceangate at least had the last known location. Remotely operated vehicles (ROV) began the search supported by aircraft, looking for clues. I can’t find anything about Oceangate having its own ROV which is standard practice. Lost communication hinted at failure, a small deep-sea community privately had theories of what happened. Many had doubts about the company trying to do things on the cheap. 

One week later US Navy sources confirmed an unknown noise around the same time was detected. US coast guard and search teams took a while before confirming the Titan was lost and destroyed. Recovery teams kept information until ready to confirm. Given the remote nature of the site far easier to keep rumours at bay. 

The US coast guard confirmed a debris field had been found on Thursday. Therefore identified as part of the Titan, a catastrophic implosion destroyed and killed everybody onboard. 5 pieces of the Titan helped show what happened. A single burst of noise followed by silence helped confirm this. Debris was found 500 metres away from the Titanic, but never hit the ocean floor or the shipwreck.

Titan was a unique design 5 man submersible, that used different materials and designs. Deep diving submersibles normally remote, 1 man or a maximum of 3 crew. The footprint here was similar to remote or single-crew designs. Various engineers have started to point out, the margin of safety was low and lacking redundancies in case of failure. Concerns about safety and practices date back years with lawsuits filed by past employees. Operating in international waters means no rules but many companies do. Oceangate on the other hand decided rules are for losers. Never followed the tough safety certification, which requires retesting after so many hours and years. Oceangate on the other hand skipped that claimed its internal tests were enough. Presenting itself as being fully 100% safe.

Everything about this seems to be avoidable. The sea has becomes the final resting place for 5 more men. Rules and regulations exist for a reason this yet another reminder about why.

Journal, Thoughts

Blogging update

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Blogging update

When it comes to blogging, one or two things happen. I have a topic in mind or don’t. 

Generally, I have a topic in mind and start writing. The first sentence is reworded or deleted a couple of dozen times. I’m happy with it, carrying on writing or unhappy and bin it. No topic often gets writer’s block, staring at the screen. Write something before quickly deleting it, and end up writing the same thing process. 

Once I have a couple of sentences, turning them into paragraphs. At that stage, move around paragraphs and sentences. The editing process begins with rewriting with rewording, followed by basic formatting. Proofread each sentence for errors and how it sounds. The whole process for me is rather intense, posts end up on the cutting room floor. After this much effort, I can just bin it.

In my little corner of the web, I moderate what is being posted. I have started to move towards quality over quantity. This leads me to explain why I have stopped posting music. Low effort posts and never really explained why I enjoyed it or picked it. I plan on making music posts again but with a better format. Watch me keep to the lazy old format. 

They say the art of blogging is over, I disagree it just moved towards short-form outlets. Social media sites are often short posts cut into pieces or links to other bits of content. The art of blogging has moved from decentralised personal sites to more centralized ones. Being in control of your own corner has benefits and downsides. For me, this was always an outlet, a bit of creativity. Designed to help improve my writing skills and push myself. When it was started things were different compared to now, change happens, and I have learnt a decent amount but way more to learn. 

Thoughts

James Bond revisiting the movies

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James Bond revisiting the movies

Sean Connery

  • Dr No (1962)
  • From Russia With Love (1963)
  • Goldfinger (1964)
  • Thunderball (1965)
  • You Only Live Twice (1967)
  • Diamonds Are Forever (1971)

For modern eyes, these movies are full of problematic scenes. As society’s values changed, movies offer a small insight into the culture at the time. Bigotry exists and these movies display it. Reflection on what the Bond character was in the books. A long list of sexism, and racism. The treatment of women has always been poor and remains poor even in modern times.

Sean helped to create and craft an onscreen character. Cult classics that is the foundation of the movie series. Goldfinger and Thunderball are Sean’s best movies here. Sense of humour with some gadgets, at times the plot can be goofy. You Only Live Twice being set in Japan creates some awkward moments. Cooperation between nations, the British being surprised at what Japan can do. Diamonds are forever at times can be pretty camp. The last movie is the worse movie he did. Some interesting concepts faking somebody’s identity, a powerful rich reclusive figure whose business empire is stolen. Sean was out of shape but having fun in this movie.

George Lazenby

  • On Her Majesty’s Secret Service (1969)

Faithful adaptations of a Fleming novel, creating one of the strongest movies in the series. A huge focus on the plot over gadgets pays off. Bond girl here is not completely useless, she the start of a sort of empowered figure. Resourceful tough and almost equal to Bond himself. Bit of troubled history with production and George’s behaviour on set. The actor viewed the series as over and never came back. I do think he could be a great bond if he carried on. His first major film acting credit, performance was excellent given the script. Connery was too busy to reprise his role. Telly Savalas being American is a minor complaint but overall good performance. Can’t help but wonder what Sean Connery and Donald Pleasence reprising their roles would be like here. Sean Connery as Bond and Donald Pleasence as Blofeld. I do think both would make the movie even better.

This movie is easy to top 3 for me.

Roger Moore

  • Live And Let Die (1973)
  • The Man With The Golden Gun (1974)
  • The Spy Who Loved Me (1977)
  • Moonraker (1979)
  • For Your Eyes Only (1981)
  • Octopussy (1983)
  • A View To A Kill (1985)

A decade of camp is here, and Moore’s movies are full of one-liners. The far less serious affair, the plot was second to gadgets and jokes. The Spy Who Loved Me was meant to be followed by For Your Eyes Only. Star Wars was a new hope success in 1977, making sure the next bond movie would be space themed. Moonraker moved away from the source material, a rather weak movie and one of the worse ones. The space battle is great but the effects need a bit more polish. For your eyes only is rather good, feels similar to Secret Service. A view To A Kill has its moments with some good ideas. Just a shame not much is done with the better ideas not explored. Moore is getting a bit old for the role at this point. By the 80s action, heroes were the big trend. Octopussy and A View To A Kill both get more camp and sillier.

My favourites here are The Spy Who Loved Me and For Your Eyes Only. Both are more grounded and realistic.

Timothy Dalton

  • The Living Daylights (1987)
  • Licence To Kill (1989)

Dalton bond was an action hero, far more serious in the two movies. Therefore, ending with Goldeneye, ends his arc. With two movies under his belt, Dalton quit the role. Living Daylights is far lighter, and Licence To Kill is darker. Featuring an independent-minded deadly skilled agent doing whatever it takes.  You can get a feeling bond is getting sick of his job, and that carries on. LTK is about a revenge mission against a drug dealer, a deadly game of cat and mouse. The tone is far darker than anything else the series has done. Character flaws almost get him killed, but everybody lets him do the dirty work. Americans and unknown Asian nations let him get closer. A great shame Dalton did not do Goldeneye. Years later Daniel Craig would revisit a couple of ideas.

Living daylights is a sleeper hit and rather good.

Pierce Brosnan

  • Goldeneye (1995)
  • Tomorrow Never Dies (1997)
  • The World Is Not Enough (1999)
  • Die Another Day (2002)

Both Pierce and Timothy became top picks to play bond. Pierce was busy staring in Remington Steele, unable to reach an agreement splitting his time between the two projects. Unable to get the original choice. Timothy ended up getting the part, and Steele was cancelled. Legal problems around James Bond’s rights, with poor box office performance, resulted in a 6-year gap. This time gap meant that Timothy was out, and Pierce was in. Hit and miss when it comes to his run. The lack of good material lets him down, not the talent which is a shame.

Goldeneye hit that balance between not going over the top or being too crazy. Villian here feels very much equal to Bond. Goldeneye’s legacy is deeply connected to the video game on N64. For many fans including myself, Pierce’s best movie is goldeneye. After that movies swap between hitting the right balance or going too far.

Tomorrow Never Dies this movie was meant to be way more contemporary and connected to current affairs. Conflict between China and United Kingdom over hand over of Hong kong. Final script centred around media mogul expanding his reach by creating a conflict between China and UK. From the start huge production woes, screenplay faced major issues. Scrapping the script just days before filming. Falling out between cast members, chaotic writing process, quite a surprise the movie even came out.

The World Is Not Enough was more grounded and realistic based around oil. Die Another Day is another low point, first act starts off grounded before going off the rails. Bond just jumping the shark, so many times it hard to keep count. Therefore the vast collection of mad ideas just cover everything. Many ways old classic bond movie feels dated by this time. Leaving bond with just gadgets and this movie has them just for the sake of it. Plot within the first act starts off strong just falls apart quickly. Nothing holds the plot together, weak villain and other elements just create a mess. Bond getting captured, tortured a good starting point. Warning signs had existed for years, Moore era was the start of it.

Daniel Craig

  • Casino Royale (2006)
  • Quantum of Solace (2008)
  • Skyfall (2012)
  • SPECTRE (2015)
  • No Time to Die (2021)

Casino Royale is outstanding, Craig nails the role of Bond. His casting choice was questioned, but his performance quickly silenced his critics. Quantum of Solace is an action movie without a plot. Another bond movie hurt by production issues, mainly this time the writers strike. I don’t think the movie is that bad but not the same quality as Casino Royale. Skyfall returns to highs of Daniel Craigs first outing. I consider it the best movie in the series. Following movies keep the quality high, good plot, good villains and enough action. Back to basics Bond that feels at home.

My top 6 movies are the following, I don’t think the order matters to much here.

  1. Skyfall
  2. On her majesty secret service
  3. Thunderball
  4. Living daylights
  5. The Spy Who loved me
  6. Goldeneye

Worse movies

  1. Die another day
  2. The Man With The Golden Gun
  3. Moonraker
  4. Diamonds Are Forever
  5. Quantum of Solace
  6. Live And Let Die

In conclusion James bond had it up and downs. Roger Moore has 3 out 6 of the worse movies. Mix of classic bond in that list and modern. Best movies has one from everybody. Living Daylights is a sleeper hit that hard to fault.

Amazon now owns the film rights and the studio. We don’t know what they plan to do. Internet retailer has been in the process of downsizing it hardware division. Remains unclear about the streaming strategy going forward. Streaming services have become huge money sinks, theaters however have remained resilience. Amazon can sell you the blueray boxset and let you watch it own movies.

Reports are Amazon plans on spending $1 billion a year on movies. Budget that big would be close to old guard spending plans. Given the cost of movies that looks rather hopeful, lean production still costs a decent amount. Amazon Studios has been rather successful with movie production. TV series have been a huge issue for Amazon.

We are going to be waiting for the next James Bond movie. I’m expecting a couple years before next one even begins production.

Journal, Politics, Thoughts

Tory leadership race coronation or funeral

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Tory leadership race coronation or funeral

Graham Norton summed up the current state of British politics quite nicely.

Penny Mordaunt for party sake

Rishi Sunak for country’s sake

Boris Johnson for fuck sake

Sense of duty

The late Queen Elizabeth ii had a sense of duty and devotion to public service. All three candidates to be prime minster lack that sense of duty. To make matters worse three candidates don’t have much political capital or skills required. Judging from past behaviour here, don’t know much about what they want to do. Only two have officially declared to be running with Boris in the shadows.

We don’t know what they plan to do or if they understand the challenges ahead. None of them would want to be hostage to fortune during a short race. None of them has taken responsibility for making things worse. Conservatives have decided to rage pointless culture wars over doing real supply-side reforms and chased easy sugar highs on tax cuts. None of them shows even any sense of public duty. Does anybody of them deserve the job not really?

Posh, clown and token figure

Rishi wealthy posh bloke, born for the job but not suited for it. Rishi has shown himself to be pretty awful at politics at times. Inexperienced with naivety, ideology is somewhat known. Therefore is viewed as the safe pair of hands, however like his party is trapped in contradiction against reality.

Penny’s values are well unknown, she has moved positions to suit the room. Penny is similar to Rishi but full of contradictions. Ideology changes depending on the weather, liar like Boris in many ways. She only here as a token figure making sure she gets a seat at the table.

Boris’s sense of duty is only to enrich himself, he got removed as prime minister due to his behaviour not long ago. Boris well he lazy, deeply arrogance proven liar smart at playing politics. His performance is like a clown or fool, opportunist who plays the fool. The writing is on the wall when comes to Boris being around. Both Penny and Boris are proven liars who play the game. Everybody is deeply flawed and with huge downsides.

On balance, Rishi is the least worse option.

A new clown is in town

Gather all around, there’s a new clown in town
He’s preaching for a change but theres nothing going down
So bring all your gold and forgiveness will be sold
And if you’re number seven he will send you straight to heaven.

None of the candidates is being honest about what is facing the UK at the moment.

The new prime minister is being given a huge poison chalice. Conservative party’s legacy for the last 12 years not fixing the roof while the sun was shining. Wasting a decade or more of low-interest rates by not investing back into the economy. So much time has been wasted we’re unprepared. The UK lacks resilience and capacity against supply shocks. Therefore leaving the UK exposed to current weather events and leaving us with creaking, public services. Rebuilding is going to be costly and take time. Taking the UK on early retirement, damaged the UK reputation and left us isolated.

Job at hand and tough choices ahead

The job at hand is dealing with the current crises and maintaining the state. Dealing with the dysfunctional bits that not currently working. At the moment most of the UK state is dysfunctional. Failing or flat-out falling apart. Void of leadership with long-standing issues must be dealt with. At the same time levelling with the public just how bad things could get. Therefore requires leadership flexible thinking and doing whatever it takes. The damage they have done means the response has less fiscal firepower. Liz Truss has shown if the UK wants to provide more financial support it needs to increase taxes. Pressure is already massive and only going to grow. Government is unpopular now before most of the pain is yet to come.

The only bit of good news here is unlikely the Northern Ireland protocol is getting replaced and the trade war starts.

Stability and credibility

Stability and credibility are in short supply, and the kindness of strangers has finely run out. Rebuilding credibility and providing some sort of stability is going to be important. The age of disruptions is here, nobody knows when the next supply shock is coming.

What are the challenges ahead?

  1. Ageing population
  2. Underfunded public services
  3. The labour market is shrinking (Covid and NHS waiting list)
  4. Shrinking tax base
  5. Political instability
  6. High current account deficit
  7. Low growth
  8. Trade barriers
  9. Low business investment
  10. Low wage growth
  11. Poor productivity
  12. Climate change

A new prime minister could solve just one of these problems. Living in a fantasy world none of the candidates has engaged with the above challenges. Nobody wants to discuss it or even begin to level with voters. This spells bad news and hints that further political instability is on the horizon. Investors are finally taking notice of the UK’s poor performance, political instability and failure to be serious. Some of these problems are decades old and require serious long-term thinking and solution. Media has been focused solely on debt, ignoring the UK record current account deficit as a far bigger problem.

Worse still the majority of the media is avoiding talking or even thinking about the cost of living crisis. Tories could be preparing for a coronation or a funeral at the next election. Labour need to be preparing for the government if polling stays the same way. Once again worth repeating the worse is yet to come and no easy quick fix.

*High inflation is a problem but is driven by supply shock within the energy market. Expected to decline within next 2 years.

Journal, Thoughts

Poetry – How do you really feel and Emotional islands

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Normally I don’t write much poetry, here two poems. I had fun writing both of theses.

How do you really feel?

Sadness hidden behind the eyes
Cheerful smiling and joking, just a lie
Anxiety and depression close friends
Lying in bed with no motivation, oh you’re just lazy

Nobody really asks how you feel
Nobody really knows the self-isolation
Nobody really questions
Nobody listening

Freedom of choice is an illusion
Trapped in a prison of your own mind
Worse fears are the guards
Walls are your body
Warden is your brain

Tools of support in limited supply
Waiting waiting unknown wait time
Couple of hours over a short course
Not enough and too many waiting for too little

No, follow up no questions
Forgotten until the next referral
The cycle repeats until something gives
Giving up the gift of life for a sweet release

Never clean always leaving behind
Loved ones, unfinished chores
Why did nobody ask
How do you really feel?

Emotional islands

Emotions are like the weather
A powerful force of nature
You can’t control it only adopt
You can never be fully prepared
Dark sad clouds give way
Light happy clouds give way

Exposed to the endless cycle
Don’t forget that it passes
Don’t get rainbows without rain
Don’t get happiness without sadness
You are not an island, not alone
Day and night, we all connected

Journal, Thoughts

Death of Queen Elizabeth ii

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Death of Queen Elizabeth ii

Queen Elizabeth ii passed away Thursday afternoon, 8th of September 2022. For 7 decades she was a symbol of continuity, a source of stability and order. Kingdom in turmoil the British public would turn to her, crown soft power and hold remained strong under her reign. I was in denial her reign would end, she had become an ethereal figure in British life. Reign that saw the birth of the commonwealth, modern Britain trying to find its place in the world. Just like when she came to the throne the kingdom is in turmoil, with economy and politics with a sense of malaise. 

Unlikely to see another Queen during my lifetime and reign as long. Remarkable women whose sense of duty and values are lacking these days. Of course, we never truly knew who the Queen was, mystery gave the crown its strength. She did care about her subjects, serving them and listening. Her death did cause me a tear, reflecting on my own grief. 

I wish King Charles the best of luck, got big shoes to fill. I do have a republican lean but I can see the value of the royal family.  In my own way must mourn her passing, the end of an era. She has reminded me to be my best self and that public duty is important. 

Paul Keating former Australian prime minister

In the 20th century, the self became privatised, while the public realm, the realm of the public good, was broadly neglected.

Queen Elizabeth II understood this and instinctively attached herself to the public good against what she recognised as a tidal wave of private interest and private reward. And she did this for a lifetime. Never deviating.

She was an exemplar of public leadership, married for a lifetime to political restraint, remaining always, the constitutional monarch.

To the extent that an hereditary monarch can ever reflect the will or conscience of a people, in the case of Britain, Queen Elizabeth II assimilated a national consciousness reflecting every good instinct and custom the British people possessed and held to their heart.

In a 70-year reign, she was required to meet literally hundreds of thousands of officials – presidents, prime ministers, ministers, premiers, mayors and municipal personalities.

It was more than one person should ever have been asked to do.

But Queen Elizabeth II’s stoicism and moralism welded her to the task and with it, the idea of monarchy.

Her exceptionally long, dedicated reign is unlikely to be repeated; not only in Britain, but in the world generally.

With her passing her example of public service remains with us as a lesson in dedication to a lifelong mission in what she saw as the value of what is both enduringly good and right.