Category: Journal

David’s Journal entries

Politics

Pre general election period

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The next United Kingdom general election must be held no later than 28th January 2025. However, this timeline presents a unique challenge: campaigning over Christmas and into the last possible date. As a result, it’s unlikely that the election will occur during that period, leaving us with October or November as more feasible options. Additionally, the party conferences scheduled for September further complicate the timing. Useful explainer, When will the next UK general election be? | Institute for Government

Polls consistently show that the Labour Party maintains a 14-20% lead over the Conservatives. That trend, started in late 2021, has persisted for the past two years. Source for that claim, politico, BBC, Guardian, Sky news.  With other polling data also indicating negative sentiment toward the Conservative party. Approval of government can be found here from YouGov. Here Ipsos tracking how approvals for various issues. Point is these numbers are not good news, once trust is lost voters don’t listen. No party has recovered while being this far behind on all the important measures. Even if you assume the best-case recovery happens, the Labour lead would still be 4-6%. All these numbers point towards defeat. However, we don’t know what sort of defeat is going to happen. Four possible outcomes here, small defeat, big defeat, wipe out and extinction event.

Voters have lost trust in the Conservatives across various measures, largely due to a series of supply shocks, scandals, and questionable political decisions. Supply shocks talking about brexit, COVID, Russia war in Ukraine and oil price jumps caused by conflict. As for scandals, ‘party gate’ scandal involving Boris Johnson, and the crash of Liz Truss’s mini budget. Mixed with a string of smaller scandals, but these two caused the biggest drop in support. Questionable choices long list from housing, planning, and lack of investment. Against the record of stagnant wages over the past 14 years is not good. The self-imposed supply shock of leaving the European Union has not helped matters, acting like a slow puncture on the UK economy.

The power to call an election lies with the Prime Minister, and timing is a crucial decision. We find ourselves in the final months of a government that appears to have run out of fresh ideas. The Conservative party is hopelessly divided, and external shocks have exposed deep fault lines within its ranks. The upcoming local elections on 2nd May add further pressure to announce a date, and the anticipated losses may lead to panic as reality sets in.

From the outside, Rishi Sunak seems to believe he can still win. Despite the polling, he has made the right choices and deserves reward, public opinion remains unswayed. At times still chaotic moments but nothing compared to what came before. We are now in an extended campaign period before any general election is officially called. Unfortunately, there seem to be no more “rabbits in the hat” left to shift the dial. Local elections normally don’t tell you much but give you an idea of the direction of travel. Showing you who is up and down.

The nationalist conservatism in the UK mirrors trends seen in Europe, but it has not yet found a winning formula. To make matters worse, trends along with fringe ideas, like leaving the European Court of Human Rights, have now become mainstream. That has me worrying about the future. Fringe ideas in the past have now become mainstream, and what worries me is what is to come. Furthermore, the influence of Russian and Chinese interests has been pushing their world view. Both are trying to weaken the Western world and view democracy as an inferior system of government.

As the campaign machinery gears up, the echoes of supply shocks, scandals, and questionable decisions reverberate through the political landscape. The Conservative party, once a formidable force, now grapples with internal divisions and external pressures. Trust, once squandered, is a fragile commodity. Next the government is going to inherit an awful outlook, economy in bad shape and low trust. Generation who have no experience of power, going to face similar divisions and pressures. No transition of power makes that even harder to deal with.

Journal

Marvel Snap card acquisition thoughts

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Marvel Snap card acquisition thoughts

Marvel snap card acquisition is rather slow compared to rate of cards coming out. Which is averaging 5 cards per month, one season pass card and one each week spotlight. Cards come from spotlight caches or token shop. These resources are limited by design. Second dinner on purpose is trying to stop people from having complete collections. Therefore, power creep becomes a problem something the designers have to deal with. They have improved card acquisition, but newer players will take months to get a sizable collection. I started play snap in June 2023, 8 months ago, assuming no cards are added that maximum of 3 more months. Almost a year to become pool 3 complete, which is a big ask.  I have some thoughts on card acquisition. My collection is currently the following.

Series 3 – 103 / 104 Leaving Agatha Harkness

Series 4 – 9 / 24 important cards Echo, Hit Monkey, Zabu and Knull

Series 5 – 14 / 29 important cards Annihilus, Blob, Caiera, Gladiator, Galactus, Ms. Marvel, Thanos

Couple here which are archetype defining therefore deeply important cards. Some good cards missing, some tech. How it currently works, second dinner moves cards between pools after many months. Can be many months before a card comes back into the spotlight pool.

Here my suggestion

Pool 1 remains the same

Pool 2 remains the same

Pool 3 archetype defining cards, bundle together cards, say a destroy bundle or random collection of cards from each group. A bundle is given once a certain collection level is reached.

Pool 4 acts like pool 3 does now, random card acquisition would include 5 card bundles here until a certain threshold is reached 75% of cards owned.

Pool 5 maximum of 15 cards

Pool 6 maximum of 20 cards

Introducing a hard limit on number of cards in pool 5/6. Giving players groups of cards, something that happens in pool 1. Bundles would work like that, just in small packs for players to open. This could be a collection reward or part of the spotlight cache system. Archetype defining or dominated cards can move to pool 3. Good cards go into pool 4.

How does card acquisition work? Collectors reserves, spotlight caches, token shop.

Reserves drop rates it also explains how it currently works. I would remove golden ticket, 50 tokens adding 100 tokens and spotlight key or pool 4 / 5 card. 

Spotlight cache duplicated cards give 3,000 or 6,000 collector tokens instead. Given how long it takes to gain a spotlight, key makes sense to boost the numbers.

Second dinner has many serious improvements to card acquisition, but still more they could do. Increasing the number of free monthly pool 3 cards is another option. Could do a cache bundle 5 cards per month for free.

 

Journal

Returning to Firefox

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Returning to Firefox

I have decided to reinstall Firefox, using it as my primary browser for a month. Returning to the open source web browser I used to use years ago. Unlike most people, I never used Microsoft Internet Explorer, liked Firefox more. I have always been a fan of open source software, used various ones over the years. Firefox is not just a web browser, part of open source software spirt that powers the Internet that believes in privacy, performance, and community. It one few remaining browsers not based on Chromium, maintained by Google. If you are looking for a web browser that respects your privacy, security, and performance, you should consider Firefox.

Why did I switch to Chrome in the first place?

Google focus on compatibility, superior performance and ability to customize it. It was also rather simple, reminding me what Firefox used to be like. Google Chrome web browser replaced Internet Explorer, Firefox for the majority of people. Therefore, most web pages are designed with it in mind. Becoming one of most widely used browsers across all platforms, 60% across desktop, mobile, and tablet. Google turned it users into the product with user profiling, making their web adverting even more profitable.

Why switch back to FireFox?

Two reasons

Privacy concerns with user profiling

Ad blocking restrictions coming in

I don’t trust Google, some changes look like restrictions and expanding user profiling. Retiring 3rd party cookies in 2024, companies like Google have abused their position of power before. I don’t trust Google that much these days. I always loved open source software, the approach non-profit Mozilla Foundation takes. Given how it only major browser that doesn’t use Chromium, that another bonus. Opera uses that engine these days, built in VPN is nice but lacks the same level of support. I prefer the look and feel of Firefox. Easier to switch between browsers these days, sharing the same bookmarks and other data.

Closing thoughts

Time to use Firefox after a long time ago, going to take some time finding right add-ons. Performance is not a worry at the moment, and privacy trumps it.

Journal

Deck the halls thoughts

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Deck the halls thoughts

I hope you enjoyed the post-deck in the halls. The name was a reference to a Christmas carol. I wanted to give you some insight into the process behind it. The concept came from a Spotify playlist, inspired by mix tapes and generated lists based on a single genre. Oringal playlist was created as an outlet for grief. I wanted to find some different music that put me in a Christmas mood. Both my parents loved music, radio was something always playing in the background. First November without my Dad Christmas couple of weeks away. Trying to distract myself a playlist was made, listening to songs made me cry. One month later I had to compile 25 songs. This year I wanted to do something and create something different. With some rough guidelines in mind. 

Guidelines

  • No more than 2 songs of the same genre
  • Include some well-known and unknown songs
  • Include songs I like
  • Winter-themed themed not just Christmas
  • 25 songs

Sounds simple, always prided myself on listening to a range of music. According to Spofity wrapped up for 2023, I listened to over 60 genres and 1,800 artists. The year before that was genre 80, with 2,100 artists. So I started listening to random playlists and creating a rough draft of songs. That draft was updated over a week, researching songs and listening to every song. I’m trying to find the best version if it was adapted or covered. It took me about a week, 1 hour each day listening. On top of this, I spent some time writing the blog post. After many hours I was happy and scheduled the post.

Overall I’m happy with how it turned out, I couldn’t have done it without some suggestions.

Thoughts

Storm ciaran

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Storm Ciaran

This was a powerful storm, bringing fast winds and heavy rain. Inland areas have natural barriers against the weather. Talking about hills, trees and other natural barriers that exist in huge numbers. Coastal zones don’t have that luxury. Humans love to live near coastal areas making the problem even worse.

Windy weather creates falling trees and damage to property due to stuff not being secured down. Heavy rain creates a deadly flooding problem, all that water works its way into the river system. Grounds already saturated can’t hold any more water, and new rainwater starts to fill up rivers downstream. At some stage that means rivers bursting their banks as the water tries to go somewhere. High amounts of rain can overwhelm human-built water networks or structures.

Climate change is making the world warmer, and wetter and weather patterns more extreme. All this causes huge headaches as people demand to be protected. For some people that means it makes no sense to build protections or prevention schemes. Living in high-risk areas makes insurance impossible, becomes unviable to live there anymore. On a global scale that means huge amounts of people moving somewhere else.

Flood protection schemes only work if you have a strong set of prevention schemes to work alongside them. Nature has the answer already, wetlands, flood plains and more. Water is rather difficult to control at the best of times. Yet we keep trying to engineer complicated solutions when the answers already exist. I’m very lucky that I live in a low-risk area but I still face disruption from storms like this. The odd road may end up being flooded or a railway line gets flooded. 

Dying days of this government means we are unlikely to get a rethink about this problem.  Very quickly going to become a problem. If storms like this become even more common the calls to do something will be deafening. It will mean having to deal with vested interests and honest discussions about the hard choices ahead. I don’t have much faith in the quality maybe things will be different.

Journal

Cold autumn is here, winter is coming.

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Cold autumn is here, winter is coming.

Over the past week, the weather has rapidly changed. Warm autumn is now feeling closer to cold winter. The year overall has been warm, wetter and dry. Northern arctic winds have caused temperatures to drop to single digits, causing snow in Scotland.

Possible temperatures turn back to summer numbers for a temporary bit of time. Storm Babet is another bit of weather news. Bringing with it rain, risk of flooding and strong winds. It’s time to bring out the jumpers and gloves once more. Hard to say if the winter is going to be colder than average or mild. Winter starts in December and ends in March according to Google.

I don’t enjoy cold dark mornings never been a morning person at all.

Journal, Politics

Israel and Palestine conflict

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Israel and Palestine conflict

This a simple summary of a 75-year-old dispute over land from Vox Media. During this dispute, there have been numerous violent escalations between states and non-state actors.

The above video is 7 years old but gives the background to this ongoing conflict. The conflict has a long history, and I don’t know everything about it. I’m willing to listen and learn about it.

The heart of the conflict is a land dispute, violent escalations some by state actors and some by non-state actors. That cycle has been ongoing now for decades. Conflict at the moment is between Hamas and Israel. Politics within both Palestine and Israel is divided and deeply fractured. Extreme minorities on both sides have been corrosive to trust, destroying institutions and limiting the options for peace.

Palestinians are divided between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, big divides exist within both. At the same time, politics in Israel is hopelessly divided and hardened against Palestinians due to terrorist attacks. A common tactic was firing rockets, often in large numbers. Two extreme minorities have gained power, adding fuel and making a two-state solution impossible.  An example is illegal West Bank settlements forcing out Palestinians by murdering and terrorizing. Another example is Hamas a terrorist organisation’s ongoing attacks against Israel using rockets. Both sides wished the other side did not exist.

Result peace talks have stalled, Gaza City is Hamas-controlled and West Bank pockets of Palestinian authority control. Thanks to the settler policies that have slowly reduced Palestinian areas in the West Bank. Palestinian civil war caused that split and terrorist group Hamas gained control of Gaza. Official policy was we couldn’t negotiate with terrorists. Therefore the Palestinians have been forgotten about and bypassed when it comes to resolving the conflict. This helps to explain why October 7th happened, lighting a fire and creating a regional war which ends the status quo. The status quo has slowly seen the Palestine cause forgotten about, and violence against them happening without consequence. With the West Bank seeing new illegal housing and Palestinians being forced out. Arab states have learned to live with Israel’s existence. The Arab world has started to normalize relations with Israel. Gone are the days when this turned into a regional war, the threat is now instability with terrorism spreading.

Benjamin Netanyahu has allowed Hamas to exist and it has benefited him. The threat of Hamas gave cover to the blockade of Gaza, and both Israel and Egypt placed heavy restrictions on the border. Building a wall, lined with cameras, sensors and constantly watching. Israel would be safe, and terrorist attacks against the people of Israel were a reason for settlement expansion in the West Bank. You can’t beat a group of militant religious zealots whose only aim is destroying Israel and who don’t care about dying. Both sides have committed violent acts against each other. Collective punishment of Palestinian people over Hamas’s actions is wrong. Or any terrorist group against Israel.

More of the same just breeding further hatred, breaking that cycle and rebuilding trust is key. The last point is challenging, repairing trust and offering an olive branch is required. Milality’s solution to political problems is a dead end. This has been building for decades and ideological non-state actors are difficult to end. Every single rival that could exist within Gaza has been pushed out. Changing the environment and conditions that have allowed them to exist won’t be easy. Pushing the Hamas leadership out of hiding and fostering a new political environment, Israel also needs similar change. That may prove difficult, the leadership of Hamas is in Qatar, Gaza and other places. For the past 10 months, the government of Israel has barely existed with huge amounts of instability. Plans to limit judicial power caused huge protests with military reservists refusing to serve.

Events of October 7th 2023, are truly horrific actions by Hamas. Launching a barrage of rockets into Israel, with an invasion of southern Israel.  Murdering innocent people, taking hostages, attacking police stations and military bases. This incursion was a terrorist attack against the state of Israel. This is nothing new for Hamas who has a long history of terrorism. The group has adapted, and changed tactics, October 7th shattered the sense of security the blockade provided. 

The Israeli response to the October 7th was a total blockade of Gaza. Nothing in or out, no food, no water or medical supplies or energy. Cutting off Gaza from anything and barely giving it enough to keep going. the humanitarian situation in Gaza is collapse on purpose and pure collective punishment.  The economy in Gaza before in permanent stagnation with supplies being limited. Now well everything is collapsing, it is total economic warfare. Gaza strip is only 45 miles long, between 4-7 miles wide with a population density similar to Hong Kong. 2.2 million people bordering Israel and Egypt. Most are children who currently live in the Gaza Strip. It took weeks before Egypt agreed to reopen the border for a small number of multinationals. Everybody else is trapped in.  It is impossible to avoid killing innocent civilians. Nowhere is safe, collateral damage is unavoidable. A desire for revenge on both sides is fueling escalation. Whatever sympathy existed quickly started to disappear due to the above actions.

A constant flow of air strikes over the last 5 weeks to soften up the Gaza Strip before a ground invasion. A ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, and now has cut it into two with Gaza City surrounded. With weeks worth of air strikes it is hard to believe anything left to target that and this is not mindless destruction for the sake of it. Dropping warning leaflets but nowhere for people to go. They have launched a ground invasion against a large civilian population with no food, water or fuel.

Worse still various groups have tunnel networks across the strip, some entering into Israel. Been planning for this day, stockpiled weapons and supplies to wait out any invasion. This is why water, food and fuel are being restricted. I can’t justify or support that, seems more like vengeance and fighting a losing battle. So far no sign of guerrilla warfare but with the internet access restricted and no journalists able to report we don’t know. Misinformation with disinformation with the fog of war makes the picture even harder to understand.

What happens next? A cycle of bloodshed that never ends. Netanyahu stated aim of the ground invasion was to destroy Hamas. Hamas has other plans like an endless war, into a regional conflict due to Israel’s overreaction in Gaza. Therefore breaking that status quo destroys the state of Israel in the process. So far regional conflict has been avoided. Israel’s lack of restraint is really putting pressure on avoiding that outcome. Hamas’s other goal of breaking the status quo has been a success. The reoccupation of 2 million people creates nightmares to deal with. Forced relocation would be repeating history. You can turn Gaza into ruins but against a foe who wants endless war that is a trade-off they are willing to make.

I condemn the terrorist actions of Hamas and don’t support them. My support for Israel is not unconditional. What worries me is no off-ramp for what happens next or plan. Medium-term thinking is needed and yet to see anything of the sort. The status quo can’t carry on but what comes next is going to need agreement between the Gulf states. Along with pressuring Israel into an agreement. A long-term peace agreement is required not a short-term stopgap.

Breaking down international norms, as chaos spreads with nobody enforcing the norms. Condemning is an easy action, but influencing is much harder.

Journal, Politics, Thoughts

Private schools and VAT

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I have updated this post wrote it last night in a bit of a rush before bed and published it.

I’m against private schools in principle. Giving people an unfair advantage, entrenching that with a massive impact on the establishment. They are designed to keep people at the top, out of fear of people’s social class falling for their children. Will this issue shape how I vote in any future election no, other issues which are far more important to me. I would rather private schools were banned or any special treatment removed so they were no longer viable. Removing artificial social barriers is important to society. 

Rachel Reeves’s conference speech on private schools in 2021.

Right now, private schools enjoy charitable status which makes them exempt from both business rates and from VAT at a cost to the taxpayer of £1.7bn every year.

But conference here’s the truth: Private schools are not charities.

And so we will end that exemption and put that money straight into our state schools.

That is what a Labour government will do.

Two ways to interpret what Rachel said. Labour will remove charitable status or the exemptions. Two years later tax exemptions are being changed to reform private schools.

Opposition parties are reactive don’t have the ability to be proactive, and don’t have the power of government. Unable to control the narrative or pull the levers of the executive to their whims. What they talk about and give air time matters. Getting that message out is hard for opposition parties. Labour has focused on the sense of unfairness, and private schools are part of that push. Possible extra money going straight to state schools, parents have noticed schools having funding issues.

Labour’s argument is charitable status was shorthand for adding VAT to school fees. The media is reporting this as a U-turn, I don’t think it is. I do think it communication misstep by Keir.  With conference season coming soon, better to get it out with nobody listening. Not expecting voters to hear about this or notice it. I’m expecting it going be an important plank and talked about, with the Labour narrative driving the headlines.

The plan is to remove VAT exemption but leave that charitable status. Schools could get around this by lowering fees, and donations increase. Unless donations are no longer considered tax-free gifts. Therefore reducing potential VAT revenue. Changing the law can be a rather hard and time-consuming task. Simple quick fixes can leave an awful mess to clean up later. Watch this space this could join a long list. Maybe Labour plans to look at other tax exemptions.

My gut is telling me doing it matters more compared to how it is done. This is one way to implement adding VAT to school fees. They are sticking to their guns on the issue. I have a sneaky feeling voters care more about the action, the VAT tax break disappearing is easy to understand. One thing is clear this obvious difference between the main parties and Labour is sticking to it.

May not agree with final outcome. I do share deep-seated concerns about what Labour priorities are. Feeding into worse insights from a narrow group of voters and failure to control the narrative. Deeply unhappy and have not made up my mind about who I’m going to vote for in the next election.

Keir’s critics have been attacking him for ditching his leadership pledges and changing his policy platform. Some of that criticism is largely unfair, but this is another example they can use. A trade-off that leaves open an exemption, donations go up fees go down. Donations are tax-free, which helps elite older schools the most. If your ideology lean going much further you won’t be happy.

Part of me is willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. The other part of me is deeply worried that his priorities don’t align with my own. Never going to get a party that aligns 100% with your views and that’s something I’ve gotten used to. Britain won’t vote for radical revolution at the ballot box. To me seems people have yet to accept that and understand long term battle is required. Seems far too many people who frankly have not realised that and going to be disappointed until the end of time.

Path to general election has started we don’t know when.

Journal, Thoughts

Hot dry summer, warm wet autumn

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Hot dry summer, warm wet autumn

The hot dry summer is over, and warm autumn begins. Last year we had a wet warm winter. Seasons are changing, hot dry humid summers with wet warmer winters or colder. As temperature increases, heatwaves become common. The climate models show possible consequences but not everything. Once in a lifetime, extreme weather events are becoming more common. Volatility in the climate system has far-reaching impacts. Less water means lower rivers that impact shipping routes, higher sea levels mean ports need to move. The security of water and food comes into question rather quickly. 

The most obvious example is food crops, irregular rain means lower yields or floods or ruined farmland. Long periods of dry conditions are also a threat, the result is irrigation. With less water supply that causes a huge strain on what can be produced and how much. Suddenly water pollution looks rather important to and health of the water cycle. Everybody would need to use less water when water scarcity comes into question.  Humanity will have to adapt, be more efficient, find resistance crops or grow something else. A solution may be growing mixed fields over a single use. Old farming methods may be the answer. Tightly packed greenhouses use less water with a lower overall footprint could be the answer. Meat production requires livestock feed, less of that means less meat can be produced.

What worries me is nobody concerned about the scarcity of resources. 

Journal

Heartstopper some thoughts

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Heartstopper some thoughts

I have been rewatching Heartstopper, by Alice Oseman.

An adaptation based on her graphic novel of the same name. Started as a web comic, which you can find here.  The story is about Nick and Charlie, and friends finding out who they are. Uplifting show that has made me reflect on my journey. The TV show does touch on darker themes like mental health problems. I now want to read the books to see how each plot is covered. Panels are recreated in the TV scenes with the same dialogue. Some scenes are expanded compared to the panels. Overall the show is a wonderful LGBT experience.

Ben’s internalized bi-erasure is something most LGBT people can relate to. Nick suffers from bi-erasure, people thinking he is just gay. Charlie being bullied causes his eating disorder and other mental health issues. Alice includes every single element of the spectrum, don’t feel forced. Every character feels relatable, two teachers discussing sexuality and late blooming. It made me smile and reflect on my journey, the painful process of accepting. Now understand that teenage moments can happen at any time.

Hand draw art helps add so much to each scene, waves that look like flags or flowers or butterflies. I enjoyed watching this series and gave me hope. Made me pause and reflect a couple of times, Wow that happened to me. Ben’s storyline hit home for me, internalised issues are never simple to fix. Society as a whole needs to be better at teaching kids about the world and relationships. The whole generation of the LGBT community needs older folks like me to act as role models. There needs to be louder bisexual and pansexual voices with trans. The gay community in the past has done bi-erasure. Without going to far off topic history here is full of these voices that often forget about.

In many ways, I have come to terms with things but I don’t want to let it be my only identity. I’m hooked on hearstopper most likely going to buy the books soon enough.