What does polling tell us about next election?

The answer is not much but does give an idea of the direction. Support declines during this period of time and increasing again when any election happens. However not always certain who going to get that increase in support. Polling is model based on current public opinion, snapshot showing the direction of travel. Any model is subject to margin of error, most of the time you land in the middle. Don’t know is high without any election in sight, more Tory leaning voters who don’t know about 20%. Hyper focus of any election causes people to decide. 

The most likely outcome of next general election, Tory majority smaller than 80. Boris is the glue holding together the Tory majority, one of the reasons behind the decline. Past biases have been reforged; most voters don’t blame Boris but the party. Danger is the feeling loss, sense of grief getting connected to the party after covid.  Toxic party brand coming back would be hard to shake off. Strength of Boris is slowly becoming a weakness, unpopular that now baked in. New Tory voters look similar to the old, any support looks conditional on Boris leadership. Story and message for the Tories exists and voters have general idea what they stand for. Recent events have made some question that belief in Boris. Not willing to abandon the party just yet, patience is draining away. Negative feelings around Boris are starting to settle in. Now just as unpopular as Corbyn was during 2018. No answers yet if that matters. 

Any Labour polling leads mask a complicated picture. Don’t know make any margin of error way bigger than normal. When almost 1/4 of any sample group don’t know and top of swing voters. Starts to get difficult how to produce any polling without wild errors at play. Most voters have negative view of Labour party brand, don’t think they could run things any better. They are clueless about Keir, most not having any opinion on him. Covid is not normal times at all, most voters form some view on leaders of a party within months. Last time this happened was with David Cameron, quickly made himself known during 2007/2008. Labour been flooding the airwaves with policy just nobody is listening. Danger here is without any clear message, voters create that message themselves. Left has tried many times the same message, never working. Bit of humble pie is required here, learning from what the Tories do right and Labour does badly. Voters don’t like insults towards the party they supported, not going to win people over calling them Satan. Lack of positive message about last decade makes it sound like labour failure not winning power. Badly needs an answer to what happened and the party wants moving forward. 

Loads can change but polling with the trend is hinting towards smaller Tory majority. Victory on the back what message however is anybody guess. Unlikely outcomes of hung parliament or Labour collation don’t seem realistic. Labour needs a massive recovery in England, Wales and Scotland. Danger of further decline happening, pain could be far from over yet. Sense of complacency after so much poor performance worries me. Leaning towards the party not improving at all. Major recovery is required to get close, no real evidence that is happening yet.  I don’t think the decline is over yet in certain places or seats. Long trend of decline can be traced back to the 70s. Of course, nothing is certain, politics can be volatile. 

Maybe Labour finds a voice at long last, negative feelings are seal the fate of Boris. Could end up with Labour prime minster after so long. I don’t think covid crisis is going way anytime soon, my gut feeling is voters give Boris one more shot at sorting things out. Tories have been able to reinvent party, even after being in charge for so long. 

So polling hints at smaller Tory majority and long road to recovery for Labour.