US Presidential Election 2024
The US presidential election is only 17 days away. Polls show the race is neck and neck, but it could go either way within the margin of error. It’s shaping up to be one of the closest elections in history, with just seven swing states — the lowest number in recent memory — determining the outcome.
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
AZ, GA, and NC lean towards Republicans, while MN, NV, PA, and WI lean towards Democrats.
America is deeply polarised between the two major parties, which hold an unbreakable majority. The result has been a dysfunctional executive, with Congress deadlocked and unable to fulfil its role. Other parts of the executive branch have become increasingly important.
Why is the race so close?
The aftereffects of the COVID pandemic have made Biden unpopular. The economic impact has resulted in higher inflation due to pent-up demand, and the Federal Reserve’s response has been to raise interest rates in an effort to curb inflation. Money given to people during the pandemic helped boost demand, further driving inflation. The economy was booming, with employment near record highs, when these factors began to take effect.
Biden has become unpopular due to the rise in inflation and interest rates, both of which are being blamed on him. Harris, as his vice president, is also being held accountable. She is positioning herself as the candidate for change, and with good reason. Trump, on the other hand, is benefiting from voters’ frustration and anger. However, he faces challenges regarding his age, his felony charges, and his continued claims that the 2020 election was stolen. His behaviour and mental capacity are causing him difficulties when compared to a much younger Harris.
In the background, demographic changes across various states are having an impact. People are moving to red states and turning them blue, and the opposite is happening elsewhere. Certain ethnic groups of voters have shifted their voting patterns. These small changes in polarised American politics are enough to create significant waves. It’s worth briefly noting that polarised politics means less crossover voting, which causes huge problems for control of the Senate and Congress, especially when combined with gerrymandering to favour one party. Who controls the executive at state levels has become hugely significant. The result is that American politics has become deeply dysfunctional, and major problems remain unsolved. As it stands right now, the race is too close to call.
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. So far, Europe and the rest of the world are not preparing, instead choosing to ignore the situation. A few of Trump’s comments should be raising alarm bells, particularly his unwillingness to commit to defending NATO countries — a serious concern. European security is at genuine risk, and that’s just the beginning of the problems. His comments about starting a trade war with Europe should be ringing alarm bells as well. Everything he’s been saying should be cause for concern. Not just concern but making him unfit to be president.
The world waits for the outcome of the November election, and the result will be historic: the first female Black president or a felon entering the White House.