Summer Byelections

Rishi Sunak has three by-elections happening on the 20th of July 2023. Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London, Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire, and Somerton and Frome in Somerset. On paper, all three should be easy wins. National polling is showing all three are going to be a loss or toss-up. 2 possible Labour wins and Lib Dem.

Labour winning Selby and Ainsty would be the biggest labour by-election swing in history. Winning here within 12 months of the next general election would foreshadow a labour victory. Marginal seats across the UK would look likely to be Labour gains. This could be a warning sign, Labour is competitive across England once more. Safer once marginal seats could be competitive once more.

Labour winning only Uxbridge and South Ruislip marginal seat on the edge of west London. Would still cause alarm for MPs in other marginal seats and swingy seats. Labour gain here is looking very likely under current polling numbers. 

Would be difficult to guess what seats are in play. Things could get worse that means upwards of 265 losses. Forced to defend so many seats would stretch resources and force battles over who gets what support. That would be a serious defeat,  one that would cause soul searching. Conservatives have a a talent for winning, this would be unlike any past defeat.

Lib dem gain in Somerton and Frome could hint at wider recovery for the lib dems. May not regain their former heartlands in the south west. Liberal phoenix recovery happens in the south east or south instead. Could see a stronger labour performance result in Lib dems gaining seats in the south as a whole including some former south west seats. Too early to tell here but they are more local party over national. Turning the party from local to national this time around that is unclear.

Bad news is that more by elections could be happening, possible another three coming soon. One in Scotland, one in true blue mid Bedfordshire, Tamworth. Last seat is a bellwether with 20k majority. It also the seat of MP that helped removed Boris Johnson from power. Losing that could become an omen for defeat at the next election.