Snap thoughts and deck theory crafting

Snap thoughts and deck theory crafting

After 6 months of playing Marvel Snaps, here is a new year progress update. Out of a total of 331 cards, I own 213 cards. I’m missing the following cards from each series.
Series 3 96 / 104 
  1. Agatha Harkness
  2. Crystal
  3. Dagger
  4. Hazmat
  5. Leader
  6. M’Baku
  7. Quake
  8. Spiderman 2099
  9. Stature

Agatha is mainly used to farm boosters, the play rate is 195 out of 331.

Crystal looks like a good card that gives you a card draw. Not one deck comes to mind but various styles work with her.

Dagger could be a good move card not core but an option.

Hazmat’s old archetype is far more risky, on paper junk deck may be the best home for him. Not sure enough win conditions exist for that to work.

The leader is just a good card however has decreased in play rate.

M’Baku I don’t know what to think about this card

Quake looks pretty good these days I can see her working in a control deck or tech card against storms or certain decks abusing locations.

Spiderman 2099 as a move card could be good but not sure

Stature tech card against discarding that restricted by that mechanic.

The only two cards I want here that is Leader and Quake.

Series 4 7 / 23

  1. Darkhawk – Combo
  2. Echo – Tech card
  3. Havok
  4. Hit monkey – Combo
  5. Howard the duck
  6. Kitty Pryde – Bounce
  7. Knull – Destroy
  8. Lady Deathstroken- Destroy
  9. Legion – Tech card
  10. Martyr
  11. Mirage – Combo
  12. Nimrod – Destory
  13. Silver Samurai – Discard
  14. Zabu – Combo

Quite a few good cards here which have added basic archetypes too.  Mirage is normally found in Loki decks. Handful of cards I want Darkhawk, Echo, Hit Monkey, Knull, Legion, Zabu. New archetypes defining or flex cards that have powerful impacts.

Series 5 13 / 24

  1. Annihilus
  2. Blob
  3. Caiera
  4. Elsa Bloodstone
  5. Galactus
  6. Gladiator
  7. Ms. Marvel
  8. Sebastian Shaw
  9. Thanos

Annihilus is a flexible card or is another tool for the junk archetype, improving the hood/sentry combo. 

Blob can be a big card finisher or of a wider package, flexible card fits into many archetypes.

Caiera has not defined a deck but has helped improve it. Not sure what to think about it.

Elsa is no longer the powerhouse she used to be.

Galactus can be a cheeky finisher that works in junk decks but uses too many cards. One of the few big bads that splits the player base.

Gladiator has found his place with Silver Surfer just good at times.

Ms Marvel has dominated the meta finding her way into all sorts of archetypes. The easy ability to spread power across lanes makes her super strong. She has various counters but they come with trade-offs.

Shaw is similar to Glad, he good silver surfer piece.

Thanos has found a place in many different archetypes, viable in some form for a while now.

Deck theory crafting

I want to try Storm/quake due to the amount of limbo. Not sure what package I would build it around. Not climbed much these seasons so far need to find a deck I enjoy. Meta has been a rather weird one for me. Just some brief thoughts and what I’m looking at targeting in spotlight caches. Kang still sucks ^_^

Marvel snap pool 3 progress update

Small progress update for series 3.

80 out of 99 cards, the following cards are missing I have included the archetypes.

  1. Agatha Harkness – Booster farming
  2. Crystal
  3. Dagger – Move
  4. Doctor Octopus
  5. Dracula – Discard
  6. Ghost Rider – Discard
  7. Hazmat
  8. Invisible Woman – Combo
  9. Jane Foster Mighty Thor – Combo
  10. Leader – Good card
  11. M’Baku
  12. Mystique – Good card
  13. Quake – High skill
  14. Zero – Combo

Update – Gambit, Magneto, Mysterio, Titania, Viper leaving me with 14 cards to collect.

About 10 cards that I can fit into various archetypes and would work within my existing decks. Let’s talk about other cards that don’t have a home but could have a home.

Agatha is mainly used to farm boosters, blob can use her stats which are okay.

Crystal can be used with Rohan to fill your opponents hard.

Hazmat is a weird combo card, Luke cage nerf means it comes with serious downside.

M’Baku fun

Titania I can see this card working with a zoo style deck but these days that not a good deck.

Viper fits into junk style of deck.

Deck the halls thoughts

Deck the halls thoughts

I hope you enjoyed the post-deck in the halls. The name was a reference to a Christmas carol. I wanted to give you some insight into the process behind it. The concept came from a Spotify playlist, inspired by mix tapes and generated lists based on a single genre. Oringal playlist was created as an outlet for grief. I wanted to find some different music that put me in a Christmas mood. Both my parents loved music, radio was something always playing in the background. First November without my Dad Christmas couple of weeks away. Trying to distract myself a playlist was made, listening to songs made me cry. One month later I had to compile 25 songs. This year I wanted to do something and create something different. With some rough guidelines in mind. 

Guidelines

  • No more than 2 songs of the same genre
  • Include some well-known and unknown songs
  • Include songs I like
  • Winter-themed themed not just Christmas
  • 25 songs

Sounds simple, always prided myself on listening to a range of music. According to Spofity wrapped up for 2023, I listened to over 60 genres and 1,800 artists. The year before that was genre 80, with 2,100 artists. So I started listening to random playlists and creating a rough draft of songs. That draft was updated over a week, researching songs and listening to every song. I’m trying to find the best version if it was adapted or covered. It took me about a week, 1 hour each day listening. On top of this, I spent some time writing the blog post. After many hours I was happy and scheduled the post.

Overall I’m happy with how it turned out, I couldn’t have done it without some suggestions.

Deck the Halls with 25 December Tunes

Deck the Halls with 25 December Tunes

I love Christmas / winter music because it reminds me of my late Dad. He always enjoyed this festive season, especially the food, gifts, atmosphere, music, and family gatherings. He and my mum also liked to decorate our house and make the children happy. After she passed away, he tried to keep up the tradition. I cherished the moments when we were all together, even though our family became smaller over time.

That’s why I want to share some joy with Christmas / winter music. I made a Spotify playlist with a mix of less-known and familiar songs. I will explain why I chose each song and what it means to me. So relax, listen, and enjoy.


Classical

These are songs that are composed or inspired by classical music. Beautiful music that creates a sense of wonder and awe. These are some pieces that capture that winter and holiday season.

  • “Winter” from “The Four Seasons” by Antonio Vivaldi (1723)

Listening to this I can imagine myself outside, in wintry chilling winds with first bits of snowfalling. Back indoors sitting next to a cozy warm fireplace after experiencing the cold outdoors. Creating an enchanting story, a joy to listen to.

  • “Dance of the Sugar Plum Fairy” by Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky (1892)

Song from the Nutcracker suite op.72a 1892, which is an adaption of the Nutcracker and the Mouse King 1816. Christmas Eve at the bottom of the Christmas tree, in a child’s imagination. Something magical about this score is plum fairy dancing as you listen. Makes me remember staring at the bottom of the tree as a kid and dreaming the same thing.

  • “The Snow is Dancing” by Claude Debussy (1908)

4th movement from Children’s Corner out of 6. Dedicated to Claude’s daughter, snowflakes in the air gracefully moving. With vivid and atmospheric sound, the song is about his love for his daughter. Seong-Jin-Cho version is below.

  • Winter Wonderland” by Felix Bernard and Richard B. Smith 1934

A classic that has been covered by various artists. Overall cheery song features a well-known catchy melody and rhyme. I decided to go with the original version without lyrics which was added at a later date.

For me, this song creates a snowy park with kids playing in the background, a couple building a snowman and a sleigh being pulled around.

  • “Sleigh Ride” by Leroy Anderson (1948)

I went with the original instrumental version, covered and adapted into various genres over the years. Iconic bit of music that has inspired so many Christmas-themed moments. Cheerful song that pulls along for the ride, and recreates the sleigh ride.


Childhood

The following two songs have a special place in my heart.

  • “Walking in the Air” by Howard Blake (1982)

Raymond Brigg’s picture book The Snowman 1978, was adapted to film in 1982. Carton’s musical adaptation of that picture book. A sequel was produced 30 years later, snowman and the Snowdog. Every Christmas I would watch it, with my parents until they both passed away. I still remember my nan coming around for Christmas and watching it with me. Watching it allows me to remember all the Christmas in the past and how much they meant to me. It is the most personal and important song on this list.

  • Grant Kirkhope – Freezeezy Peak (Banjo and Kazooie) 1996 alternviete version is here

I have fond memories of playing Banjo and Kazooie on the N64. I still own my original N64 given to me as a Christmas gift. Every time I listen to that game soundtrack I’m transported back in time playing that in the living room at Christmas. This track is for a winter-themed level, which was one of my favourites growing up. I have included the original and redone version from Grant himself off the Rejiggyed album.

Banjo and Kazooie Rejiggyed version


Modern Christmas standard

Collection of modern Christmas standard songs. Some well-known ones to more cult classics. Start with some new wave, synth pop main covered in pop goodness finishing up with rocky dessert.

  • “Christmas Wrapping” by The Waitresses (1981)

This song is about surprises and how romantic moments can happen when you’re not looking. Rather charming song grounded in what the holiday season is in practice. How stressful life can be around the holiday but at the same time people can get enjoyment from small things. It was never a hit song on release but has become a bit of a cult classic over the years. Part of the new wave rock genre but influenced by 80s hip hop and rap.

  • Last Christmas by Wham 1986

Okay last song was pretty obscure, Wham mega hit however is not. I have memories of hearing this on the radio, in retail shops and everywhere. Classic 80s sound wrapped into a Christmas theme, a song about a broken heart.

  • Christmas in Hollis” by Run-DMC (1987)

Why not wrap up the year with this Christmas classic? A catchy song that just lifts the mood. My first CD was a RUN DMC cover, this song was on the back of my mind making the list.

  • “All I Want for Christmas Is You” by Mariah Carey (1994)

Mariah Carey made one of the best love songs of all time which happens to be a Christmas song. Not many modern songs become Christmas standards. Mariah has refreshed the song over the years and invited artists to perform it with her. In many ways, she has become the pop queen of Christmas.

  • Christmas Lights by Coldplay 2010

A second song about breakups on Christmas Eve. Coldplay here provides a festive song, mixed with that well-known coldplay sound. One of the few modern Christmas songs I enjoy. Every time I listen to Coldplay I think about my mum so that’s why I added it.

  • “Snowman” by Sia (2017)

Much more downbeat low-tempo song, what I love about this song is the music video. Similar to the Waitresses song I have included. Would say it bit more hopeful and focused on being in love. Going to end up being part of the Christmas standard with time.


Folk

Something old reimaged

  • “Carol of the Bells” by Mykola Leontovych (1914)

This song is based on the Christmas carol, by Ukrainian composer Mykola Leontovych. It has been adapted with lyrics added at a later date. Popular carol and song in its own right these days, having been adapted and reused over the decades. I included this song to show my support for Ukraine and decided to share two different takes on the song.

Mannheim Steamroller version

Trans Siberian Orchestra version

  • “Winterbird” by Aurora (2016)

Writing this list I wanted to include some winter songs and found this. Aurora creates a dark, slow very minimal song. Lyrics are full of references to nature and the harsh reality of it brings back to reality. A really powerful song about how the environment around us influences emotions. I’m really glad I did some research and found this gem.


Rock

  • “Winterlude” by Bob Dylan (1970)

Bob Dylan is one of the greatest songwriters, to me Winterlude is a song about the simple joys and pleasures of winter. Winter gives us time for reflection before the year’s end. Something different once more.

  • “Imagine” by John Lenno (1971)

Okay, not technically a winter or Christmas song. Imagine is a minimal yet powerful song. Idealist piece of music that feels in tune with common themes around Christianity. Given the challenges the world faces, this song gives me hope during struggling times.

I was thinking of including This Is Christmas by John Lennon.


Cover section

  • Christmas at Ground Zero is a song by “Weird Al” Yankovic (1986)

It is a comedy Christmas song, dark humour and parody of Phil Spector-produced Christmas songs. Given the decline in the quality of Christmas songs over the years I feel like this earns a spot. This is also what happens when you force somebody who makes comedy songs to make a Christmas record.

I’m unable to embed the video.

  • Hazy shade of winter by The Bangles (1987)

This is a cover of a 1966 folk rock song,  by Simon and Garfunkel. released in 1966. Bangles covered the song for Less Than Zero. Gerard Way with Ray Toro covered the song in 2019 for the TV series adapted from his comic book series. Umbrella Academy, the same name as the comic book, Netflix production.

Bangales version

Gerrad way version

  • “A Mad Russian’s Christmas” by Trans-Siberian Orchestra (1996)

Trans-Siberian Orchestra is a well-known big Christmas and winter-themed band. Covering various bits of music, adapting them even creating new music inspired by classical songs. Picking a single song was going to be hard, Wizards of Winter is my default but I wanted to highlight a different song.  I picked a rock opera song instead, which from a full suite,

  • Oh Holy Night by Apocalyptica 1996

Apocalyptica is a Finnish symphonic metal band that consists of four cellists and a drummer.  This version is rather a traditional cover of the Christmas classic. Christmas carol was originally composed by Adolphe Adam in 1847. Showcase of talent mixed with a passion for music with this cover.

  • Jingle bells by James Lord Pierpont 1857

Jingle Bells started as a winter song about sleigh riding that slowly morphed into a Christmas song. Written by James Lord Pierpont in 1857. Guitar solo metal cover adds to the long list of covers over decades. Charlie Parra Del Riego brings new life to this classic song.

  • Merry Christmas Everyone” by Shakin’ Stevens 1985

This song reminds me of my dad, standing on the doorstep as Santa collecting for local charities drove past. He loved Christmas and acted like a child at that time of year full of joy.  A tradition now linked to the carnival around gunpowder plot celebrations.  I remember him dragging me to the front door even as an adult to wave back.


Obscure jazz

  • Winter wonderland harmony – Christmas star piano 2023

I found a song on Spotify called Christmas Star Piano, which is a cryptic name designed to keep them anonymous. YouTube is saying that James Smith is the composer so I don’t know. Released two albums on Spotify both are calming jazz music for winter. I wanted a Jazz song and found this obscure diamond. Spotify: Silent Night and Yuletide Harmony Christmas Music Delights.

  • Skating by Vince Guaraldi Trio (1965)

Less obscure this comes from A Charlie Brown Christmas which is a classic. Captures the mood of skating on a frozen lake and a beautiful piece of music history.

So season greetings and happy Christmas, hope you enjoyed the music.

Snap thoughts incomplete series 3

Marvel snap card collection is split into five pools, the starting collection is 1 and 2. Pool 3 is the biggest one with a huge impact on deck building. Archetypes that already exist in earlier pools get better. New cards are added to series 4 and 5. The second dinner used to do series drops moving cards down towards 3. Nothing about that happening anytime soon, which makes spotlight caches and tokens rather important. Missing a couple of cards that open up new archetypes, improving on existing ones.

I currently own 68 out of 99 pool 3 cards, 68% complete a collection level of 2784. Looks unlikely I will complete the pool by 3500 levels.

Discard – Apocalypse discard shell is missing Dracula, Colleen Wing is rather nice. All about emptying your hand, buffing dracula based on biggest card in hand. Hela Discard can be a casino. Discard big cards and bring them back later on. Here I’m mising a blackcat, gambit and ghost rider. Gambit can sometimes find a place in other deck. Outside that i’m mising a couple common big cards that see play in that deck. I have hela but can’t do that style of deck. Apocalypse I can do weaker version of that deck with some success.

Destory – Getting Deadpool big in a destory package just fits into that shell. Annoyingly I have other part which is X23 both together work so well. Similar to discard just weaker version without it.

Good cards – Doctor Octopus good distruption card can upset plays your opponent may be wanting to do. Magneto good distruption that moves cards around. Mystique copies any ongoing cards in last played that creates some crazy turn 6 plays. Rogue tech card that steals ongoing effect from your opponent. Goose on paper should be good. Invisible Woman maybe a good card but not sure.

Move – Not sure if dagger is core part of move but she fits into so many lists. Miles Morales is just nice to have when you can move cards around.

Mister negative – Missing couple cards that reduces the slot machine nature of this shell. Jane Foster Mighty Thor lets me draw some rather good cards. Leader can swing this deck towards winning. Bast can find a home here and other decks.

Silver surfer – Crystal another 3 cost card can fit into this deck not sure if it any good here.

Shuri sauron -Zero gives this deck a mana curve, opens up some new playlines. Tiny boost that gives this deck another tool to use. I had success without it but would better with it.

Niche – Agatha Harkness is double edged sword, good at farming boosters and maybe discard deck. Quake is good distruption card with skill ceiling that is high. You move locations that are unplayable breaking what your opponent wants to do. Rockslide needs darkhawk to create a new type of shell.

Following cards one from pool 4 and 5 that I have my eye on. Some of these cards just improve existing decks looking out for spotlight caches with them in.

Pool 4

Khull – Destroy

Legion – Control

Man thing – Debuff

Mobius M mobuis – Tech card

Nimrod – Destory

Ravonna renslayer – Mister negative

Zabu – Discount 4

Pool 5

Alioth – Tech card

Echo – Tech card

Elsa bloodstone – Zoo?

Iron lad – Just good

Jeff the baby land shark – Just good

Hit monkey – Serra

Kitty pryde – Bounce

Nebula – Control

Thanos – Destory, control, lockdown

Storm ciaran

Storm Ciaran

This was a powerful storm, bringing fast winds and heavy rain. Inland areas have natural barriers against the weather. Talking about hills, trees and other natural barriers that exist in huge numbers. Coastal zones don’t have that luxury. Humans love to live near coastal areas making the problem even worse.

Windy weather creates falling trees and damage to property due to stuff not being secured down. Heavy rain creates a deadly flooding problem, all that water works its way into the river system. Grounds already saturated can’t hold any more water, and new rainwater starts to fill up rivers downstream. At some stage that means rivers bursting their banks as the water tries to go somewhere. High amounts of rain can overwhelm human-built water networks or structures.

Climate change is making the world warmer, and wetter and weather patterns more extreme. All this causes huge headaches as people demand to be protected. For some people that means it makes no sense to build protections or prevention schemes. Living in high-risk areas makes insurance impossible, becomes unviable to live there anymore. On a global scale that means huge amounts of people moving somewhere else.

Flood protection schemes only work if you have a strong set of prevention schemes to work alongside them. Nature has the answer already, wetlands, flood plains and more. Water is rather difficult to control at the best of times. Yet we keep trying to engineer complicated solutions when the answers already exist. I’m very lucky that I live in a low-risk area but I still face disruption from storms like this. The odd road may end up being flooded or a railway line gets flooded. 

Dying days of this government means we are unlikely to get a rethink about this problem.  Very quickly going to become a problem. If storms like this become even more common the calls to do something will be deafening. It will mean having to deal with vested interests and honest discussions about the hard choices ahead. I don’t have much faith in the quality maybe things will be different.

Halloween patch mainly Mobuis thoughts

Halloween patch mainly Mobuis thoughts

The second dinner Halloween patch will be a treat or trick. Patch notes can be found here.

Mobuis M Mobuis

  • [Old] 2/3 – Ongoing: Your Costs can’t be increased. Your opponent’s Costs can’t be reduced.
  • [New] 2/3 – On Reveal: Until the end of next turn, your Costs can’t be increased and your opponent’s Costs can’t be reduced.

Developer Note: Mobius M. Mobius has had a massive impact on the metagame, forcing a changing of the guard among top decks that saw perennial powerhouses like ZabuSera, and Death fall from grace in favor of decks that could push Power by just playing cards for their normal Energy Costs. While we were eager to see the world Mobius would create, we expected to make an adjustment down the road in order to welcome Cost reduction strategies back into the sunlight. Today is that day, as we’re shifting Mobius to provide a temporary counter that requires good timing to maximize the effect. This makes him trickier to set aside Energy for, kind of like Shadow King, and also opens up counters like Magik for decks that are hyper-vulnerable to Mobius being played on turn 5. We’re also interested to hear your feedback on our approach here, using a new card as a tool to create a new play environment temporarily.

There are loads to unpick here let’s start with what is changing. Mobuis is redesigned and being changed from ongoing to on reveal.

He was designed as a counter against cost reduction and cost increases. As a card, trying to do two jobs at the same time. Tech cards are cards designed to counter a specific archetype.

Here is a list of all the cards that interacted with him.

  1. Baron Mordo
  2. Beast
  3. Death
  4. Evolved abomination – High evo
  5. falcon
  6. Iceman
  7. Loki
  8. Mile morales
  9. Mister negative
  10. Quin jet
  11. Ravonna renslayer
  12. Sabretooth
  13. Serra
  14. She hulk
  15. Spider ham
  16. Stature
  17. Swarm
  18. Wave
  19. Zabu

The result wide range of archetypes was impacted. Therefore seen in 1/3 of decks on release before reaching settling at 1/4 of decks. A powerful effect that the game needed but overpowering. Which is why something needed to change. Now we can talk about the notes provided with this change.

Developer Note: Mobius M. Mobius has had a massive impact on the metagame, forcing a changing of the guard among top decks that saw perennial powerhouses like ZabuSera, and Death fall from grace in favor of decks that could push Power by just playing cards for their normal Energy Costs. While we were eager to see the world Mobius would create, we expected to make an adjustment down the road in order to welcome Cost reduction strategies back into the sunlight. Today is that day, as we’re shifting Mobius to provide a temporary counter that requires good timing to maximize the effect. This makes him trickier to set aside Energy for, kind of like Shadow King, and also opens up counters like Magik for decks that are hyper-vulnerable to Mobius being played on turn 5. We’re also interested to hear your feedback on our approach here, using a new card as a tool to create a new play environment temporarily.

The most interesting line here is we expected to make an adjustment to bring cost reduction back. Maybe I’m misreading this but strikes me as naive developers expected a shake-up but were surprised by rapid change. They knew this card design would most likely mean more balance changes are needed later down the line. I don’t think they fully understood or considered the far-ranging impact would be so quick. 

When I saw this card I knew it would be impactful, I was shocked because even limited cards I owned it hit some hard. I’m still surprised that he was never a temporary effect with a body but an ongoing 2-cost card. Of course, if you have a deck based around cost reduction you would include him. If the meta is full of cost reduction that counter just makes sense.

I don’t know what the hell second dinner was thinking here. Maybe we get a better statement but the damage has been done. Mobuis should be split into two cards and something should be given to players who picked him up.

Cold autumn is here, winter is coming.

Cold autumn is here, winter is coming.

Over the past week, the weather has rapidly changed. Warm autumn is now feeling closer to cold winter. The year overall has been warm, wetter and dry. Northern arctic winds have caused temperatures to drop to single digits, causing snow in Scotland.

Possible temperatures turn back to summer numbers for a temporary bit of time. Storm Babet is another bit of weather news. Bringing with it rain, risk of flooding and strong winds. It’s time to bring out the jumpers and gloves once more. Hard to say if the winter is going to be colder than average or mild. Winter starts in December and ends in March according to Google.

I don’t enjoy cold dark mornings never been a morning person at all.

Call of Duty Modern Warfare 3 first impressions

Call of Duty Modern Warfare 3 first impressions

Modern Warfare series was rebooted in 2019, this is the third entry. Small rant here I don’t understand why you don’t call this modern. The studio behind this title is Sledgehammer Games with Infinity Ward original creators of the series. Infinity Ward now acting like a satellite studio but updating Warzone. Tons of studios working on Call of Duty, three main studios and many others.

I have not played a Call of Duty game in years and similar to the older games. Combat is fast and smooth, maps are redesigns of modern warfare 2 core maps. New art improves the look and feel of the legacy maps. A list of confirmed maps can be found here.  Honestly rather happy with that list, some really good maps here. Not going to call it a beta but more a demo, the final release is due in November.

Perks return, and other things.

Let’s talk about the negatives

The art design of operators blends into the maps so easily. Not just that it really difficult for me to work out who is friendly or foe. This has been a problem for years and drives me mad. Countless people have similar problems.  Call of Duty has been removing information from players for years now and is core to the formula.

Progression is locked by levels, including upgrading your weapons. I’m not sure weapon challenges exist for progression I hope not. Speaking of which you can’t build your own loadout at level 1 which is really annoying.

One thing I did notice is minimap no longer gives you red dots. Given how fast you die I could have missed that detail.

Outside of that, it is just more call of duty nothing groundbreaking. More single-player, more zombies and more online madness. Not sure how many guns will be in the full game but the selection here is limited which is okay. Balance has been a problem for a while, trying to balance a range of guns is hard.  Sway feels like it returns but not sure.

Grown out of the call of duty as I got older mainly tiny things that annoy me remain.

Infinity Ward

Israel and Palestine conflict

Israel and Palestine conflict

This a simple summary of a 75-year-old dispute over land from Vox Media. During this dispute, there have been numerous violent escalations between states and non-state actors.

The above video is 7 years old but gives the background to this ongoing conflict. The conflict has a long history, and I don’t know everything about it. I’m willing to listen and learn about it.

The heart of the conflict is a land dispute, violent escalations some by state actors and some by non-state actors. That cycle has been ongoing now for decades. Conflict at the moment is between Hamas and Israel. Politics within both Palestine and Israel is divided and deeply fractured. Extreme minorities on both sides have been corrosive to trust, destroying institutions and limiting the options for peace.

Palestinians are divided between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, big divides exist within both. At the same time, politics in Israel is hopelessly divided and hardened against Palestinians due to terrorist attacks. A common tactic was firing rockets, often in large numbers. Two extreme minorities have gained power, adding fuel and making a two-state solution impossible.  An example is illegal West Bank settlements forcing out Palestinians by murdering and terrorizing. Another example is Hamas a terrorist organisation’s ongoing attacks against Israel using rockets. Both sides wished the other side did not exist.

Result peace talks have stalled, Gaza City is Hamas-controlled and West Bank pockets of Palestinian authority control. Thanks to the settler policies that have slowly reduced Palestinian areas in the West Bank. Palestinian civil war caused that split and terrorist group Hamas gained control of Gaza. Official policy was we couldn’t negotiate with terrorists. Therefore the Palestinians have been forgotten about and bypassed when it comes to resolving the conflict. This helps to explain why October 7th happened, lighting a fire and creating a regional war which ends the status quo. The status quo has slowly seen the Palestine cause forgotten about, and violence against them happening without consequence. With the West Bank seeing new illegal housing and Palestinians being forced out. Arab states have learned to live with Israel’s existence. The Arab world has started to normalize relations with Israel. Gone are the days when this turned into a regional war, the threat is now instability with terrorism spreading.

Benjamin Netanyahu has allowed Hamas to exist and it has benefited him. The threat of Hamas gave cover to the blockade of Gaza, and both Israel and Egypt placed heavy restrictions on the border. Building a wall, lined with cameras, sensors and constantly watching. Israel would be safe, and terrorist attacks against the people of Israel were a reason for settlement expansion in the West Bank. You can’t beat a group of militant religious zealots whose only aim is destroying Israel and who don’t care about dying. Both sides have committed violent acts against each other. Collective punishment of Palestinian people over Hamas’s actions is wrong. Or any terrorist group against Israel.

More of the same just breeding further hatred, breaking that cycle and rebuilding trust is key. The last point is challenging, repairing trust and offering an olive branch is required. Milality’s solution to political problems is a dead end. This has been building for decades and ideological non-state actors are difficult to end. Every single rival that could exist within Gaza has been pushed out. Changing the environment and conditions that have allowed them to exist won’t be easy. Pushing the Hamas leadership out of hiding and fostering a new political environment, Israel also needs similar change. That may prove difficult, the leadership of Hamas is in Qatar, Gaza and other places. For the past 10 months, the government of Israel has barely existed with huge amounts of instability. Plans to limit judicial power caused huge protests with military reservists refusing to serve.

Events of October 7th 2023, are truly horrific actions by Hamas. Launching a barrage of rockets into Israel, with an invasion of southern Israel.  Murdering innocent people, taking hostages, attacking police stations and military bases. This incursion was a terrorist attack against the state of Israel. This is nothing new for Hamas who has a long history of terrorism. The group has adapted, and changed tactics, October 7th shattered the sense of security the blockade provided. 

The Israeli response to the October 7th was a total blockade of Gaza. Nothing in or out, no food, no water or medical supplies or energy. Cutting off Gaza from anything and barely giving it enough to keep going. the humanitarian situation in Gaza is collapse on purpose and pure collective punishment.  The economy in Gaza before in permanent stagnation with supplies being limited. Now well everything is collapsing, it is total economic warfare. Gaza strip is only 45 miles long, between 4-7 miles wide with a population density similar to Hong Kong. 2.2 million people bordering Israel and Egypt. Most are children who currently live in the Gaza Strip. It took weeks before Egypt agreed to reopen the border for a small number of multinationals. Everybody else is trapped in.  It is impossible to avoid killing innocent civilians. Nowhere is safe, collateral damage is unavoidable. A desire for revenge on both sides is fueling escalation. Whatever sympathy existed quickly started to disappear due to the above actions.

A constant flow of air strikes over the last 5 weeks to soften up the Gaza Strip before a ground invasion. A ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, and now has cut it into two with Gaza City surrounded. With weeks worth of air strikes it is hard to believe anything left to target that and this is not mindless destruction for the sake of it. Dropping warning leaflets but nowhere for people to go. They have launched a ground invasion against a large civilian population with no food, water or fuel.

Worse still various groups have tunnel networks across the strip, some entering into Israel. Been planning for this day, stockpiled weapons and supplies to wait out any invasion. This is why water, food and fuel are being restricted. I can’t justify or support that, seems more like vengeance and fighting a losing battle. So far no sign of guerrilla warfare but with the internet access restricted and no journalists able to report we don’t know. Misinformation with disinformation with the fog of war makes the picture even harder to understand.

What happens next? A cycle of bloodshed that never ends. Netanyahu stated aim of the ground invasion was to destroy Hamas. Hamas has other plans like an endless war, into a regional conflict due to Israel’s overreaction in Gaza. Therefore breaking that status quo destroys the state of Israel in the process. So far regional conflict has been avoided. Israel’s lack of restraint is really putting pressure on avoiding that outcome. Hamas’s other goal of breaking the status quo has been a success. The reoccupation of 2 million people creates nightmares to deal with. Forced relocation would be repeating history. You can turn Gaza into ruins but against a foe who wants endless war that is a trade-off they are willing to make.

I condemn the terrorist actions of Hamas and don’t support them. My support for Israel is not unconditional. What worries me is no off-ramp for what happens next or plan. Medium-term thinking is needed and yet to see anything of the sort. The status quo can’t carry on but what comes next is going to need agreement between the Gulf states. Along with pressuring Israel into an agreement. A long-term peace agreement is required not a short-term stopgap.

Breaking down international norms, as chaos spreads with nobody enforcing the norms. Condemning is an easy action, but influencing is much harder.