Journal, Thoughts

The slow pace of change

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The slow pace of change

Change is slow and often incremental. The start and end often end up in history books, the journey is often seen in a modern view. Sometimes the journey is never discussed only the start and end points. Social attitudes move with the times, for example, society accepts gay people compared to 50 years ago. Result of persistent campaigning, the law is often slow to catch up. All of the above the result of gradual change, reforms happened followed by further reforms. The colourful history behind it is a bunch of important events along the way.

Of course, I have not covered anything and missing loads out from the picture. Could argue that I’m being ahistorical here and persistent radical action or radical legislation has done more. Thing is that really ignores the journey, without compromises none of this would be possible. A picture is far bigger than just radical action or legislation. An advocate of gradual change in positions of power helped play a big role here.

Here are three examples national health service, voting rights and weekend/working hours.

National health service story about access to healthcare.  NHS is the legacy of past healthcare infrastructure joining together due to war.

Voting rights and weekend/working hours legacy of civil liberties expanding. Voting rights result from various movements coming together, protests and riots. The weekend is unique here due coming from working habits and campaigns shaping it. 

Britain’s first hospital St Bartholomew’s Hospital was founded in 1123, providing healthcare for the poor. Free care was limited to hospitals or workhouses.  Workhouses often did medical care but left much to be desired for. Poor care resulted in many campaigns leading to reforms, against untrained staff in unsuitable wards. Short summary healthcare was unregulated for a very long time and disorganised, access was limited. Poor medical care was commonly resulting in death. 

English poor laws can be traced back to 1587–1598, medical care was offered. Access to healthcare was patchy, Poor patients suffered from substandard care. Medical science improved more hospitals opened up, and experiences got shared about what worked and did not. National insurance act of 1911 Insurance gave workmen entitlement to medical care, and women and children were not covered. The idea that health insurance needed to be extended to dependents become a consensus but war stalled it.

Bertrand Dawson was commissioned in 1919 by Christopher Addison, to report on medical care. An Interim Report on the Future Provision of Medical and Allied Services, laying down plans for primary and secondary health care centres. Private schemes existed that provided health care.   Local authorities ran hospitals for local ratepayers, charitable voluntary hospitals did offer free treatment. Local govt act 1929 allowed local authorities to run services, not just ones authorised by the poor laws. English poor laws helped create the system still used today. Poor laws that funded that system were replaced in 1948.

Socialist Health Association campaigned for the creation of NHS, founded in the 1930s. British Medical Association pamphlet 1938 followed in the same footsteps. War in 1938 delayed reforms but centralised state-run Emergency Hospital Service meant reform was needed. Voluntary hospitals now depended on government support. Rather obvious that bringing voluntary hospitals under a centralised system needed to happen.  Labour started to plan and think about the universal health care system. During the 1945 Labour govt, Beveridge’s report shaped a series of key reforms. Healthcare became an important plank in that program. 

NHS was the result of incremental change.

Voting rights

Members of parliament were picked by the King until 1265. After those members would be elected by various counties. The Knights of the Shire Act in 1432, established the right to vote for members. Only to owners of real property who paid taxes to the Crown of at least X in value. The Reform Act of 1832 expanded voting rights to freeholder men above the age of 21. Chartism working class movement happened between 1838 and 1857 demanding the right to vote. Women’s suffrage started in 1830s, and took until 1918 and 1928. Women had the right to vote before it was removed in 1835.

Further reform act 1867 enfranchised householders or renters, including many working-class voters for the first time. Further reforms saw everything start to get standardised. Representation of the People Act in 1918, removed property ownership requirements for men but women could vote if they owned property. Representation of the People Act 1928 removed the property requirement for women. The age to vote has been reduced with time, representation of the People Act 1969 and reforms after have reduced it to 18. That is just a brief overview, violent and non-violent protests happened.

Voting rights were the result of incremental change

Weekend/working hours are far more modern in terms of history. Legalisation reduced working hours; weekends came from campaigns. Uneven at first having to overcome various traditions. An unofficial version of the weekend did exist in the 1870s. Some workers already did it. Religious bodies argued for it, trade unions played a part. The weekend as we know it was established in the 1930s.

Working hours can trace that back to 1901, 1908, and 1919, modern working hours 48-hour week in 1921 were loads of updates and reforms after that.

Once again incremental change

Of course, I have not covered anything. Persistent action slowly builds up before causing change to happen. Social attitudes add to the pressure. All of the above the result of gradual change, reforms happened followed by further reforms. Continual pressure for radical change, caused compromises to happen. Without moderates in positions of power, nothing would get done. We often forget how far we come. At pride, I was reminded of how fast society can move. None of this is the result being passive, active campaigning slowly moving people’s minds. 

My big worry right now is we don’t have the time to wait for action on climate change. Signs are positive but loads of work to do, slowly running out of the road. 

 

Politics

Tory leadership fight fantasy vs fantasy

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Tory leadership fight fantasy vs fantasy

Boris Johnson was the answer, now the question is who replaces him. Boris’s administration suffered various external shocks and was rocked by scandals. An opportunity was wasted to reshape Britain in Boris’s image. Elected on a vague promise, unable to make decisions. Shocks combined with poor judgement burned away any capital. Sexual assault allegations against a deputy whip, Boris doubled down pledging support. Minsters resigned in protest, causing the downfall. Ended the same way it started, a chaotic political mess.

Eight candidates want the job of prime minister. Against the backdrop of strong economic headwinds, a poisoned chalice for whoever takes over. Recovery in disposable incomes is unlikely before any election. A toxic mix of inflation, public service backlog and chaotic governance.

  1. Rishi Sunak
  2. Penny Mordaunt
  3. Tom Tugendhat
  4. Liz Truss
  5. Suella Braverman
  6. Jeremy Hunt
  7. Kemi Badenoch
  8. Nadhim Zahawi

Sunak’s pitch is traditional conservativism focused on fiscal discipline and competence. Reluctance to provide support during a cost-of-living crisis. Sunak was in charge of the economy; his pragmatism was limited.  Show himself to be rather naive, making obvious mistakes. Old school conservativism but unwilling to answer problems ahead.

Mordaunt is heir to Boris, whatever that platform was. Reactionary conservativism is relaxed about certain things but wants to reshape the world. Her problem is being naive, similar to Boris making mistakes. A chameleon that changes all the time, can she make unpopular choices we don’t know. Liar at heart she say anything and double down.

Tugendhat’s pitch return to one nation, a clean break from the past 3 years. Bit of everything, modern caring touch. Mix of small C social liberal but near the centre.

Truss heir to thatcherism, unable to grasp what that looks like. Rose tinted glasses view of Thatcher has created by accident a caricature.

Braverman stereotype Tory, caricature of the party.

Hunt small C one nation Tory, broke the NHS and now wants to fix it. Trying to appeal to couple different groups.

Badenoch honest Tory who small C but taking a traditional view on things.

Zahawi promise everything to everybody, another traditional Tory.

What question is the party membership trying to answer. Based on the candidates, sense of complacency and lack of desire to tackle the problems. No real debate about inflation or energy prices, just fantasy against fantasy.

UK faces a long period of stagnation, both political and economic. Internal party politics have caused brexit, threat of a trade war is still high. Uncertain world older homeowners and retired have avoided the shocks. Party has been ruthless in protecting the old at the cost of the young. Stable bedrock of homeowners who benefit from stagnation. Tories have little to no reason to reform the system. Older homeowners have benefited from this system. Party has stored up future problems and expects the old to vote Tory forever. 

Danger is creating poor Tory voters with wealth concentrated to the few. Many ways the Tory party is returning back to the past, party of rent seekers.

Video Games

Fortnite

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Fortnite

Fortnite averaging of 80 million active players per month. Estimated around 3.24 billion monthly gamers, industry chasing 250 million high spenders. What many free-to-play games have done is convert more into paying customers. One of the biggest games in the world. Borrowing from existing games and doing giant cross-overs. Global music events have taken place, movies had done tie ins.

Games have come and gone, with millions of players per month. Clones of the trend have melted away, leaving only four big titles. The big four are Fortnite, Apex legends, PUBG and Warzone.

PUBG one of the originals has been steady and never found the same success. Spinning off from DayZ which has a long history between the two games. Epic Games Fortnite was a different game, save the world was the original but battle royale components were more successful. Apex legend’s spin-off from Titanfall launched much later, and little to no marketing was done.  EA was surprised just how well the game did on launch and had little to do with it. Gaming franchise call of duty has Warzone, which helped save the call of duty series. Free-to-play warzone helps drive sales for the base game.

Fortnite makes me remember what I love about video games. Understanding is not a serious game at all. After being asked for weeks, I decided to try no build mode. Changes how the game is played and the base game is rather fun. Smooth combat mixed with a visual style that is unique. Everything feels slower compared to what I remember. I suck at the game at the moment but overall, quite fun after all this time.

Efforts to recreate the Fortnite have failed, only call of duty found success. The future is unclear what happens next, Microsoft owns Warzone now. No clear trend in the gaming world at the moment.

The only thing I know is Fortnite is fun, I should play it more.

Fathers and Mother’s Day

Fathers and Mother’s Day

Every year I’m reminded of the loss of both my parents. Slowly come to terms with that loss, grief still remains strong. Love for both of them will not disappear any time soon. I can remember their voices, full of memories. Lost a part of me that day, both dates are painful memories. Unable to forget a single detail about it. Music that was played I can’t listen to it anymore without crying.

Really should seek therapy but takes weeks, time is far too limited. I don’t think a single day should be a celebration but every day. Not until something is gone do you understand just how much you miss it. I never understand the whole point of it.

Artificial marketing day is designed to sell more things. I don’t need a special day to feel connected to my parents. Hope one day I can be a parent

Economics, Journal, Politics

High inflation and low growth new normal?

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High inflation and low growth new normal?

The UK is suffering from Brexit-related inflation, supply shock energy and covid, with pent-up demand causing rising inflation, weak pound adds to the woes. Together this toxic mix is starting to lead to slow growth and high inflation. Strange mix of disinflationary and inflationary pressures, shocks to the economy.  Bank of England has few options, unable to reduce global energy inflation.

Simple narratives often the big picture. Fear is wage price spiral of the 1970s returns. That ignores the weak wage growth over the past decade, poor productivity that is plaguing UK. Major wage correction is required with big increases at the lower end. Public sector needs huge wage increases to keep staff. Already seeing some wage growth but that being outstripped by inflation. Companies finding keeping staff and hiring just as difficult. UK has far too many cars hand washes and little business investment.

Workers in the public sector are demanding higher pay or face strikes. Bank of England is warning workers not to seek higher wages or face fueling inflation. Misremembering what happened during the 1970s. Tories are stuck in thinking the answer comes from supply-side reforms when demand needs to be supported. A bunch of structural issues facing the UK, the housing market is sucking economic activity. Housing market is draining output as many are paying mortgages or funding retirement pots.

Simple narrative companies are greedy or workers are ignoring the complicated backdrop. No easy answers to solve the problems facing.

Northern Ireland protocol by design has created a sea border between it and UK. Closer alignment between the UK and EU would solve the issues. Border must be somewhere, some improvements but sea border must remain. Eurosceptic MPs are unlikely to support closer alignment, pragmatic thinking is dead. Scope for minor changes to be made but promises made for Eurosceptic can’t be kept. Most of the problems have been created by Boris Johnson’s own short-term thinking. Only cliff edges remain as solutions which lead us to a potential trade war with the EU. Not exactly smart to do during a period of high inflation with a weak pound.

Domestically Boris Johnson is weak and lacks the political capital or leadership to find a solution. Northern Ireland assembly DUP is blocking the appointment of a speaker. Local elections saw the DUP becoming the second-biggest party not the first. The government can’t be restored after a certain period election must be called again. DUP is demanding the Northern Ireland protocol be scrapped before they even consider coming back to the table. The UK is refusing protocol dispute resolution, recognizing European institutions would be toxic politics. EU position is renegotiation off the table, but the scope for changes once the UK implements the protocol in full. Without a change of leadership within Westminster, the deadlock looks safe to continue. Boris’s administration looks to be on its last legs, unlikely to command support within the commons. The only way forward looks to be reforming how the assembly works but Boris is refusing to listen to anybody.

The oil price had already been increasing, world reopening needed more oil as demand came back. Supply shock caused by covid would take years to resolve. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused energy prices to jump. Putting further pressure on supply chains, various raw materials being restricted by trade sanctions. Food prices are jumping in price, some nations are restricting exports. All of this adds to inflationary pressures facing the global economy. Energy prices rising have a disinflationary effect on demand. Growth slowing down across the world.

A weak pound causes imports to rise in price, exports should benefit but trade barriers. The labour market looks tight but ill health, and early retirement having less access to workers from the EU cause major headaches. The UK risks destroying its educated labour force with funding cuts and no retraining plan. No plan to get people back into the labour market.

Slow decline is far more likely over sudden bang but economy is looking rather sick. Wave of deregulation or supply side reforms won’t suddenly make things better. Tories no longer the party of business but stagnation suits homeowner base. High inflation could be new normal for the UK and low growth.

Journal, Politics

Governments proactive, opposition parties are reactive.

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Governments are proactive, and opposition parties are reactive.

How opposition parties react to events makes or breaks them. In politics, define yourself and risk somebody else doing that could be voters or opposition. Opposition parties are naturally reactive and need to hold power to do anything. Desperate for air time, every second counts. 

Repeat the same message and tailor it that reflect what is on our minds. Tony Blair and David Cameron, offer lessons for the opposition. Blair’s high levels of charisma allowed complex topics within the same message. Cameron used the 08-banking crash to steer the conversation toward a long-term Tory goal of cutting spending. Repeating simple yet similar messages, spending was the problem. As David Cameron, other people spend far easier target. Getting elected is the easy part, governing is the hard part. Layers of governance can take years for the policy to happen. An example would be Brexit, rushing ahead unprepared helped fuel disruption. Political disillusions formed a giant quagmire. UK is now looking at starting a trade war with the EU. Lack of serious discussions about what it means and the direction. Still years behind being able to fulfil the original agreement. Temporary delays now look more permanent. Centralised government still has many decentralised parts that don’t have direct control over. 

Civil service tries to execute the policy agenda, managers are required to get things done. Civil service needs more staff to deal with trade barriers, more friction means more paperwork. Tories have degraded UK public services and reduced the amount of spare capacity. External and internal shocks have tested the UK’s resilience. Civil service expanded to cope with the challenges. Now they face budget cuts and a bigger workload. Best and brightest with knowledge start leaving just dead wood. Result politicians find it even more difficult to get things done. 

Most people won’t notice the disruption and upheaval until it reaches breaking point. They do take note if hospitals or power supplies stop working. Queuing at airports or traffic jams at the border. The key points most voters are comfortable, the cost-of-living crisis is a shared problem. A major fall in income however can be weathered but still noticed. Anybody who is not comfortable is fucked, sudden fall in income can’t weather that. Economic shock wave shakes the whole system causing further pain. Can’t buy as much coffee and don’t need as many coffee shops. Poorest start to cut back on essential items, do you eat or heat your home. Party in power can be proactive in supporting the economy. Boris has decided to be reactive, and let a problem become big before acting. 

Rising demand for oil due to pent-up demand caused by covid. Global supply chains have ongoing issues, increasing prices as a result. Covid still causing turmoil, unlikely to end any time soon. Inflation has been climbing around the world, climate change is at a tipping point. Russia’s war with Ukraine has caused a huge energy supply shock, and won’t be ending any time soon. Headwinds are flowing stronger further disruption is certain. Long-term structural problems remain unsolved and won’t be easy to fix. A plan for all these challenges is lacking and no long-term thinking is is at the heart of n10. 

British politics got semi unpopular government, doing unpopular things. Public trusts it to keep things working. They don’t trust Boris Johnson, anything linked to him is toxic. A posh party that is good at management, somewhat out of touch. The danger is past negative ideas about the party start to appear in people’s minds. Party brand is strong, trusting it but past biases remain. Party is rather good at finding a direction and ruthless when comes to winning. Waiting for the Tory party to fail is like waiting for a lottery win.

Labour has the opposite problem, weak brand and neutral views on the leader. Don’t want to be a hostage to fortune makes the job even harder. Unable to steer the conversation Labour found itself in a trap of its own making. Burnt by various defeats refusing to reframe the last decade. Parts of the party have decided to refight old battles and not notice this different opponent. Keir needs an answer that lets him reclaim the centre-ground and offer something that people could see as improving things. Any idea needs a clear united message or narrative about the last decade. Internal opponents complain about being too right or left-wing and lack any answers. The danger here is clear voters decide what the party stands for before it can set out its stalls. Party is not trusted and voters won’t listen. Rebuilding that trust with limited air time is tough. 

Historic Labour seats that look similar to swing Tory seats with retired homeowners in old working-class communities. Income poor but asset rich thanks to homeownership. Traditional Tory seats are income rich being asset rich, mainly homeowners. Tories are suffering from small C traditional liberals moving away from the party. The narrative mainly focuses on Labour woes here, first Scotland followed by huge numbers of seats in the mix. These seats form part of a major realignment in British politics. Labour has become the party of urban liberal voters, a party of the new professional working class. Tories have become the party of homeowners, older with some small c liberals. Returning to old party battlegrounds in modern times. Voters are becoming far more volatile, old safe seats are changing and new marginal seats are appearing. Both parties are protected due to first past the post for now. Party loyalty is breaking down, swing voters matter more and own that centre-ground. Homeowners with mortgage holders have become a powerful bloc. Renters don’t have the same size in terms of population and don’t turn out. 

Doing nothing and hoping to win by default, not exactly going to cope with having to do unpopular things. Tories have a nasty habit of winning, this time around decided not to help with falling incomes. Learning from each defeat, reshaping the party feeling like something different. Boris won on the idea of getting Brexit done and improving public services. People saw Boris, not another posh Tory who did not care or would not get stuff done.

The two most likely outcomes for the next election are a reduced majority or a hung parliament. Labour needs to lay the groundwork or risk further defeats. Never let a crisis go to waste, Tories are drifting. Won’t stay aimless without a direction for much longer. The electoral map is huge a challenge, Labour lacks a real loyal base. Party needs long-term Tory voters, swing Tory lean to win seats. 2017 was the result of some rather volatile voting patterns in unique times. Britain needs the Labour party to react instead of being a passive bystander. Damage the Tories have done means it is timing for a fightback, the desire to win is lacking. 

Not easy being a party of opposition you’re reacting to events. Governments are proactive, opposition parties are reactive. One side is fixated on internal battles trying to keep hold of power. Party gate has destroyed trust in Boris. Doing whatever is required to keep in office. Screw running the nation unfit Boris needs to stay prime minister at any cost. The inmates are running the asylum. labour lacks the confidence to say what needs to be said. Failed to make an impact within the hostile environment it faces. 

Easy to feel disheartened and a potential trade war with the EU not going to help. 

Journal, Politics

Boris Johnson no confidence no power

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Boris Johnson no confidence no power

Boris Johnson has won a vote of no confidence, 211 to 148. End of Johnson has started, formal way of removing him is over for now. Rule changes can happen that allow him to be removed from office sooner over later. Boris has no shame so won’t resign; political pressure alone won’t work. Things could get rather ruthless and dirty soon enough depends how savvy Boris is. Big danger for Boris is his own actions cause his downfall.

Opponents of Boris have yet to unite together but his own actions could do that. Come down to hard on the rebels could start making powerful enemies. Unorganised rebels caused by an organic dislike of Boris could get organised. Self-made mistakes over last 6 months have compounded together into a perfect storm. Angered the party into action caused the largest rebellion faced by the leadership. MPs knew what Boris was like they took a gamble for somebody unfit to become prime minster.

What happens now is start of a shadow leadership fight.  By elections are coming up soon could become a new flash point. Commons select committee on standards report on Boris could cause further pain for him. Unable to fix the recommendations could cause further pain.

Queen speech was rather empty, not many bills on the agenda. Boris has done rather little with that 80-seat majority. Lack of direction has caused things to drift along. Party was united to stop Corbyn and do Brexit. Now it plans to undo Brexit and Corbyn is long gone. Lack of answers on offer for things like cost-of-living crisis.

Boris like a wounded stag, got away yet again but final blow is not far away. Individual hunters want him but don’t want to work together just yet. One week a long time in politics. Events could pick up pace quickly with end being sudden.

Reign of Boris the fool needs to end, but I fear other fools await us. Nightmare won’t end any time soon until the political power of baby boomers is broken.

Politics, Thoughts

Outcome of next general election has various scenarios. 

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Outcome of next general election has various scenarios.

  1. 80+ seat Tory majority
  2. 40+ seat Tory majority
  3. Small Tory majority
  4. Hung parliament another election
  5. Minority government
  6. Formal coalition
  7. Small Labour majority
  8. 40+ Labour majority

1, Further 40 Labour marginal seats could become gains. Small swing is required to flip the seats, long term trend against Labour in said seats.

2, Reduced majority with Labour flipping marginal seats. Recovery takes place in England or Scotland or Wales, could be mix across the board. Couple southern English seats flip with other trending labour.

3, Working or simple majority is the outcome here. Labour becoming competitive once again in marginal seats, deep recovery takes place in England or Scotland or Wales, could be mix across the board.

4, No simple majority can form, coalition becomes impossible. Leading to another election being held to resolve the problem.

5, Biggest party leads minority government, Labour is supported by other parties.

6, Formal coalition is formed with simple or working majority.

7, Simple or working labour majority.

8, Working Labour majority.

At the moment 3 outcomes are likely, 3th 4th and 5th scenarios. Boris Johnson has become deeply unpopular, dysfunctional responses to self-made crisis after each other. Voters don’t trust anything connected to him, becoming a drag on his party.

Don’t forget huge cost of living crisis, past ones have ended prime ministers.  Polling with focus groups is not looking good, small swing ends the majority. Former Labour seats caused huge pain for the party, Tories even facing losing long term seats seems fine with it. Blind spot over the seats flipping away from the party, ignoring and viewing them as not important. Success of the party in winning on display here, not really been thinking about anything does not need to.

Both mainstream parties have seen rapid shifts in terms of support. Former Labour seats have seen huge swings against the party about 12% in 2019. Smaller but steady flow of swings against Tories have been happening over last 20 years. Labour lost Scotland, parts of the north, Tories have lost London, cities and graduates.

Simple or working majority I think is most likely outcome. Tories barely holding on to power. If Labour wants to win needs a story about the past decade and cost of living crisis connected to it. Unconvinced looking competence alone is enough, focus on bread-and-butter issues. Challenge is huge with mountain to climb 3 election cycles or more. Possible for the party to use the cost-of-living crisis as reason vote Labour. Small group want radical change but not sure most really do. Never let a crisis go to waste but first step is getting voters to listen. Very long time the party has been untrusted on almost every issue. Needs to show the party is ready to run things.

After 12 years in power, Tories feel lacking in their mission. Labour lacks the desire to win after 4 defeats. Nothing is certain when comes to politics huge amount of uncertainty. Keir Starmer being a success leaves the door open, repairing the party standing and learning how to talk is success.

Thoughts

Platinum jubilee – my republican lean

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Platinum jubilee – my republican lean

Queen Elizabeth II celebrates her platinum jubilee this month. During her reign she been a source of stability, attitude towards public service something lacking these days. Could argue this nothing new, upper class have always viewed things as a game. I respect her but monarchy is rather outdated as a concept. Late husband prince Philip was quite a figure with loads of charm. Could call me a swing republican, in favour of no head of state. Still open to be convinced about the monarchy. Not fully hostile towards it but leaning republican. 

I don’t feel a strong connection to the royal family, seem like a distance relic from the past. Class system in the UK has been replaced by the money system, how much money you have given you influence. Many ways the class system never left us just got changed a bit, families with money generally stay rich. Like many bits of British constitution reform is badly needed, last couple years has showed the system breaking down. My trust in institutions has shattered, Queen Elizabeth shines like a bright light of hope. Part of me wants to meet her, truly a remarkable woman. Rather sad that she only thing that makes me proud to be British. When you consider the history around the royal family that rather funny. Everything the royal family stands for not exactly in line with my own values. Royals have suffered from various scandals which have damage that reputation. Goes to show they are only human after all. 

Speaking of which scandal by queen is rather good as a song. 

Politics

Easing the cost-of-living crisis

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Easing the cost-of-living crisis

Massive fall in real disposable incomes, started back in 2021 forecasts won’t end until 2024. Rapid rise in inflation off the back of Brexit, covid pandemic helping to increase it. Russia war with Ukraine has helped cause a huge energy supply shock. Shocks like that are normally deflationary, market failure has helped make this shock worse. Last decade has seen weak wage growth, barely at same levels last seen in 2008. Poorest have suffered the most over the last decade, won’t be changed any time soon. Reforms designed to help kick start wage growth have stalled or failed to appear. Growth has been slower compared to before Brexit, economy is smaller compared to what it would be. Weak fiscal stabilizers forced monetary policy to act and cause a recession. 

  1. Increase the base level of all benefits
  2. Increase benefits in line with inflation and above it
  3. Scrapping 2 child limit on tax credits
  4. Scrapping the bedroom tax
  5. Change the UC taper rate
  6. Scrapping age rules on housing benefits / increase to match rents
  7. Allow local councils to pay housing benefits directly to landlords
  8. No delay on first UC payments
  9. Cash payments for energy bills
  10. Writing off any legacy debts
  11. Targeted support for food bank users
  12. Expansion of social tariffs

Well known that best way to solve poverty is more money.  Longer term solutions are required like insulation program funded by grants. UK housing stock leaky, having some of lowest energy efficiency in Europe. Reforming the rules making housing stock healthier, would help with people’s health overall. 12 points listed above is undoing some of the government flagships reforms to welfare. Longer term reforms to energy market to include more resilience against price shocks.

Giant fall in disposable incomes something not seen for decades. Normally only see disposable fall that much during a recession, very real worry about stagflation. Boris and Rishi have decided for one off cash payment. Won’t be enough to cover the fall in disposable incomes but better than nothing. Half measure that already too late.