Outcome of next general election has various scenarios.

1. 80+ seat Tory majority
2. 40+ seat Tory majority
3. Small Tory majority
4. Hung parliament another election
5. Minority government
6. Formal coalition
7. Small Labour majority
8. 40+ Labour majority

1, Further 40 Labour marginal seats could become gains. Small swing is required to flip the seats, long term trend against Labour in said seats.

2, Reduced majority with Labour flipping marginal seats. Recovery takes place in England or Scotland or Wales, could be mix across the board. Couple southern English seats flip with other trending labour.

3, Working or simple majority is the outcome here. Labour becoming competitive once again in marginal seats, deep recovery takes place in England or Scotland or Wales, could be mix across the board.

4, No simple majority can form, coalition becomes impossible. Leading to another election being held to resolve the problem.

5, Biggest party leads minority government, Labour is supported by other parties.

6, Formal coalition is formed with simple or working majority.

7, Simple or working labour majority.

8, Working Labour majority.

At the moment 3 outcomes are likely, 3th 4th and 5th scenarios. Boris Johnson has become deeply unpopular, dysfunctional responses to self-made crisis after each other. Voters don’t trust anything connected to him, becoming a drag on his party.

Don’t forget huge cost of living crisis, past ones have ended prime ministers.  Polling with focus groups is not looking good, small swing ends the majority. Former Labour seats caused huge pain for the party, Tories even facing losing long term seats seems fine with it. Blind spot over the seats flipping away from the party, ignoring and viewing them as not important. Success of the party in winning on display here, not really been thinking about anything does not need to.

Both mainstream parties have seen rapid shifts in terms of support. Former Labour seats have seen huge swings against the party about 12% in 2019. Smaller but steady flow of swings against Tories have been happening over last 20 years. Labour lost Scotland, parts of the north, Tories have lost London, cities and graduates.

Simple or working majority I think is most likely outcome. Tories barely holding on to power. If Labour wants to win needs a story about the past decade and cost of living crisis connected to it. Unconvinced looking competence alone is enough, focus on bread-and-butter issues. Challenge is huge with mountain to climb 3 election cycles or more. Possible for the party to use the cost-of-living crisis as reason vote Labour. Small group want radical change but not sure most really do. Never let a crisis go to waste but first step is getting voters to listen. Very long time the party has been untrusted on almost every issue. Needs to show the party is ready to run things.

After 12 years in power, Tories feel lacking in their mission. Labour lacks the desire to win after 4 defeats. Nothing is certain when comes to politics huge amount of uncertainty. Keir Starmer being a success leaves the door open, repairing the party standing and learning how to talk is success.