Local elections 2021 – No easy answers
The election happens people are quick to draw rapid conclusions, failing to grasp what happened. The dust has barely settled, X was the problem only if we did this instead. Same old faces turn up on TV to settle old scores. The pattern repeats nobody learns anything further decline happens. Worse still wrong lessons are learnt causing even more damage. Until somebody comes along rebuilds the party because they sort of understand the current map/rules. Tories have been far more successful at doing that. Long term realignment of British politics, sudden seat losses mask slow changes. With the slow steady decline in party loyalty, voters want to shop around now. Signs have been in front of us for decades at this point.
Rules of politics matter deeply at the moment.
Beware of lower turn out clouding things. On average turn out could be 1/4 of GE turnout. Ward data on who could live in that area is now almost one decade out of date. Meaning who could be voting could be deeply different to who you think is. Loads of data that is missing needs to be pieced together. What going on won’t be clear for some time.
The average voter does not care about politics or even follow it. Finding it hard to name people or even remember how they voted. It complicated puzzle working out how and why people voted for the X party. Sad but true modern politics is full of contradictions, no pundit understands it even social scientists find it difficult to read.
Any big crisis the public pile behind the incumbent government of the day. Giving them the benefit of the doubt to fix things. Global pandemic means voters settle for the known over the unknown. Why rock the boat when nobody could see it coming. Normal rules are suspended until things are sorted. Difficult for any opposition party to get any air time at the best of times. Need laser-like focus and message that does not attack the govt outright.
Pandemic makes campaigning difficult, harder to do all the normal things.
Labour’s uneasy choice
Hard to draw any real lessons from the current map when the above is so impactful. The obvious point is Labour is facing challenges from all sides. Results show the party losing to the greens/lib dems and Tories. Labour did however make some gains but the picture is mixed. Even on lower turn out recovery has started. The gap is closing between the main parties but still dangers ahead. New management is largely unknown, the brand is damaged still. Slowly the recovery is happening with voters but a leader needs to be visible. Invisible lawyer man in the suit vibe won’t win any elections or inspire the membership. Does not help to have dozens of ideas or a complete detailed plan. Need something that ties it all together, better story compared to the other side. Long term trend has been against labour in many areas. Sometimes it not about Labour at all. No matter what we try voters did not want to listen. Tories just did better and voters like it more.
Mountain we face has never been any clearer, to win, we must build a new coalition of voters. Expanding from the current base to former strongholds, grabbing potential ones too. Party must be competitive in existing marginal seats and hold what we got. That means understanding why voters go Tory and how to appeal to a much larger group who could lean Labour. The danger here this not the floor, support can go much lower. Not only that means getting better at playing the game of politics. To do that we must understand the current base and not be embarrassed by it. Above all else, we need to chase voters who could vote for us. That means understanding current voters, not the group we imagined are Labour voters. Can’t afford to marginalise ‘the left’, otherwise, we risk losing ground to the greens and lib dems. Party brand should be seen as safe and none threatening to people who will never vote for us. A difficult balancing act between radical change so many want and conservation instincts others have. The last big key sticking point is lack of trust. That not going to be easy to address without being realistic. A shopping list of ideas or heavily detailed policy won’t cut it, needs to be a simple package.
A tory party you think we face is not the party we face. Uncomfortable truth no magic bullet exists, many things need to change. We need to learn from our opponents not mock them or say we better than the Tories. Saying the party people voted for is evil won’t get you very far at all. Party loyalty is disappearing at a rapid rate and that message does nothing now. Attacking pork-barrel politics won’t stick but give voters a reason to vote for them. Running on the same old message but the Tories does not cut it. The simple reality is party loyalty at an all-time low, voters shop around. Repeating the time old classic means we don’t really have a clue what to say. Fighting old battles and expecting to face the same opponent. 4 different flavours of the Tory party have beaten us each one with a different set of priorities. The most recent one running as the challenger, but being the incumbent. The only bit of good news here is Brexit is slowly disappearing from the public mind. Divides that caused it to remain wide open.
Tory party story is because of Brexit, more police, nurses and green policies are possible. We need a story that suits us to counter this idea. Gone are the days of Cameron declaring no green crap. Make no mistake this opponent is way harder to beat, promising higher spending and taxes. Sharp difference from what Cameron promised. You may disagree but the average voter supported it with open arms. They want a good job, a nice house and to be rich. Attacking the rich blindly is attacking voters dreams. Makes no sense too and the appeal is too narrow. Labour offer to voters is a big massive collection of ideas with a green strategy at the heart. The problem is a giant shopping list of priorities, which are difficult to explain together. Needs to be easy to understand clear and focused package.
Greens issues, access to justice and sick pay
I would look at green issues, access to justice and sick pay. The story is needed that pulls all three together. Left needs more substance that voters care about, right needs more substance that understands the party core vote. Both sides are trying to settle old scores and don’t want to face the music. Tories have moved we have been standing still against 2010s Tories. Certain bits of a policy platform needs to change to suit this reality. Less a shopping list of unachievable goals in the first term. A refined plan that matches our own voter’s priorities and any potential lean labour voters. Elements that are ripe ground like sick pay. Reforming and scrapping UC party needs to pick one. More muddling through won’t work, we tried that. Not how you build trust with voters who can smell the bullshit from miles away. The strategy of more of the same has failed. Deeply concerned all sides have ideas but making some serious miscalculation who supports the party or could do. Failure to pick shows the deep unease with the choice we face. After some imagined group of voters ignoring everybody else. Trying not to offend anybody but pissing off everybody. Misunderstanding the current voter and chasing some imagined group who don’t exist. Not exactly been a recipe for success so far.
I do feel Keir should hold his nerve, after these disappointing results. I will give the benefit of the doubt here because of the covid pandemic. Suspension of politics of normal has not helped the party at all. In the coming weeks, things should start returning to normal. The direction of travel should be outlined and made clear. Before covid the strategy focusing on green issues with every policy linked to it. Would appear the problem is the lack of focus and discipline in how to present it. Wide range of goals time to refine it and make it suit now. Don’t want to be hostage to fortune. Flexibility and resilience are needed when come to fighting the Tories. The labour party future depends on us learning the right lessons, understanding the base we have. Finding the lean labour voters who vote Tory, coming with something for them.
Signs Keir wants former red wall voters but so far no serious offer has been made to anybody. Critics have failed to do the same. To make any serious policy platform need to have a clear understanding of our own voting base and who could join that coalition. Do we focus on the liberal young urban city voter base and cement it or expand to include former red wall voters. Many members disappointed in Keir want the former. Members like me want the latter but Boris has claimed that ground. Does mean understanding, listening to current voters and people who could vote for us. Could be the only way forward for the party. To do that we need to change priorities find a message that suits both. No party has the god-given right to exist and can be replaced. Both sides of the party appear to think the current base has no other place to go. The danger we repeat the same mistakes, chasing imagined group who don’t exist and alienation of people who do vote for us.
Invisible front man magic trick won’t save the party or love bombing voters on green issues. Stronger media presentation is required, giving clear short answers. People should know the face, the rest of the party follows the line. Not easy to do given the rules of the game and conditions. All sides of the party need to unite together, compromise is required. Many members were willing to give Corbyn the benefit of the doubt after series of failures. The same should be given to Keir but we can’t look back repeat the same failed lines. Knives out for Keir at the first sign of trouble won’t do us any good. Changing leaders won’t magically fix everything. Ignoring the conditions laying the blame just on the leadership won’t work.
After Covid, I want a focus on green issues, access to justice and sick pay. Take a bit of policy platform from the right and left on each one. Green issues focus should be on better roads, buses. Ideas like the right to repair, reuse and recycle too. Justice only works if people have access to it. Should be something a former lawyer can feel comfortable talking about. The last point hits that spot the British public sense of fairness. Should help to inspire the base once more which we need to win. More importantly all of the above is something Labour voters can support.