Israel and Palestine conflict

This a simple summary of a 75-year-old dispute over land from Vox Media. During this dispute, there have been numerous violent escalations between states and non-state actors.

The above video is 7 years old but gives the background to this ongoing conflict. The conflict has a long history, and I don’t know everything about it. I’m willing to listen and learn about it.

The heart of the conflict is a land dispute, violent escalations some by state actors and some by non-state actors. That cycle has been ongoing now for decades. Conflict at the moment is between Hamas and Israel. Politics within both Palestine and Israel is divided and deeply fractured. Extreme minorities on both sides have been corrosive to trust, destroying institutions and limiting the options for peace.

Palestinians are divided between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, big divides exist within both. At the same time, politics in Israel is hopelessly divided and hardened against Palestinians due to terrorist attacks. A common tactic was firing rockets, often in large numbers. Two extreme minorities have gained power, adding fuel and making a two-state solution impossible.  An example is illegal West Bank settlements forcing out Palestinians by murdering and terrorizing. Another example is Hamas a terrorist organisation’s ongoing attacks against Israel using rockets. Both sides wished the other side did not exist.

Result peace talks have stalled, Gaza City is Hamas-controlled and West Bank pockets of Palestinian authority control. Thanks to the settler policies that have slowly reduced Palestinian areas in the West Bank. Palestinian civil war caused that split and terrorist group Hamas gained control of Gaza. Official policy was we couldn’t negotiate with terrorists. Therefore the Palestinians have been forgotten about and bypassed when it comes to resolving the conflict. This helps to explain why October 7th happened, lighting a fire and creating a regional war which ends the status quo. The status quo has slowly seen the Palestine cause forgotten about, and violence against them happening without consequence. With the West Bank seeing new illegal housing and Palestinians being forced out. Arab states have learned to live with Israel’s existence. The Arab world has started to normalize relations with Israel. Gone are the days when this turned into a regional war, the threat is now instability with terrorism spreading.

Benjamin Netanyahu has allowed Hamas to exist and it has benefited him. The threat of Hamas gave cover to the blockade of Gaza, and both Israel and Egypt placed heavy restrictions on the border. Building a wall, lined with cameras, sensors and constantly watching. Israel would be safe, and terrorist attacks against the people of Israel were a reason for settlement expansion in the West Bank. You can’t beat a group of militant religious zealots whose only aim is destroying Israel and who don’t care about dying. Both sides have committed violent acts against each other. Collective punishment of Palestinian people over Hamas’s actions is wrong. Or any terrorist group against Israel.

More of the same just breeding further hatred, breaking that cycle and rebuilding trust is key. The last point is challenging, repairing trust and offering an olive branch is required. Milality’s solution to political problems is a dead end. This has been building for decades and ideological non-state actors are difficult to end. Every single rival that could exist within Gaza has been pushed out. Changing the environment and conditions that have allowed them to exist won’t be easy. Pushing the Hamas leadership out of hiding and fostering a new political environment, Israel also needs similar change. That may prove difficult, the leadership of Hamas is in Qatar, Gaza and other places. For the past 10 months, the government of Israel has barely existed with huge amounts of instability. Plans to limit judicial power caused huge protests with military reservists refusing to serve.

Events of October 7th 2023, are truly horrific actions by Hamas. Launching a barrage of rockets into Israel, with an invasion of southern Israel.  Murdering innocent people, taking hostages, attacking police stations and military bases. This incursion was a terrorist attack against the state of Israel. This is nothing new for Hamas who has a long history of terrorism. The group has adapted, and changed tactics, October 7th shattered the sense of security the blockade provided. 

The Israeli response to the October 7th was a total blockade of Gaza. Nothing in or out, no food, no water or medical supplies or energy. Cutting off Gaza from anything and barely giving it enough to keep going. the humanitarian situation in Gaza is collapse on purpose and pure collective punishment.  The economy in Gaza before in permanent stagnation with supplies being limited. Now well everything is collapsing, it is total economic warfare. Gaza strip is only 45 miles long, between 4-7 miles wide with a population density similar to Hong Kong. 2.2 million people bordering Israel and Egypt. Most are children who currently live in the Gaza Strip. It took weeks before Egypt agreed to reopen the border for a small number of multinationals. Everybody else is trapped in.  It is impossible to avoid killing innocent civilians. Nowhere is safe, collateral damage is unavoidable. A desire for revenge on both sides is fueling escalation. Whatever sympathy existed quickly started to disappear due to the above actions.

A constant flow of air strikes over the last 5 weeks to soften up the Gaza Strip before a ground invasion. A ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, and now has cut it into two with Gaza City surrounded. With weeks worth of air strikes it is hard to believe anything left to target that and this is not mindless destruction for the sake of it. Dropping warning leaflets but nowhere for people to go. They have launched a ground invasion against a large civilian population with no food, water or fuel.

Worse still various groups have tunnel networks across the strip, some entering into Israel. Been planning for this day, stockpiled weapons and supplies to wait out any invasion. This is why water, food and fuel are being restricted. I can’t justify or support that, seems more like vengeance and fighting a losing battle. So far no sign of guerrilla warfare but with the internet access restricted and no journalists able to report we don’t know. Misinformation with disinformation with the fog of war makes the picture even harder to understand.

What happens next? A cycle of bloodshed that never ends. Netanyahu stated aim of the ground invasion was to destroy Hamas. Hamas has other plans like an endless war, into a regional conflict due to Israel’s overreaction in Gaza. Therefore breaking that status quo destroys the state of Israel in the process. So far regional conflict has been avoided. Israel’s lack of restraint is really putting pressure on avoiding that outcome. Hamas’s other goal of breaking the status quo has been a success. The reoccupation of 2 million people creates nightmares to deal with. Forced relocation would be repeating history. You can turn Gaza into ruins but against a foe who wants endless war that is a trade-off they are willing to make.

I condemn the terrorist actions of Hamas and don’t support them. My support for Israel is not unconditional. What worries me is no off-ramp for what happens next or plan. Medium-term thinking is needed and yet to see anything of the sort. The status quo can’t carry on but what comes next is going to need agreement between the Gulf states. Along with pressuring Israel into an agreement. A long-term peace agreement is required not a short-term stopgap.

Breaking down international norms, as chaos spreads with nobody enforcing the norms. Condemning is an easy action, but influencing is much harder.