Category: Politics

Journal, Labour, Politics

Thoughts EU referendum Part 2

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Previous post Thoughts on EU referendum part 1

Thoughts EU referendum Part 2

Given the narrow focus of the reforms still highly skeptical about the process.

Europe faces many challenges during very difficult period, world is reshaping with lack of global leadership.  Economic situation within Europe is weak, facing migration problem, geopolitics problems from eastern border to middle east. European area is largely at peace but faces winds which could cause serious damage.  Backdrop within United kingdom many are still yet to recover from 2007-08 recession with some measures only just turning positive.  House prices still increasing, wages are still lower, employment is less secure.  Large part of British voters are sceptical voting for whoever they feel can get one with fixing problems.  Loud minority has blamed many of issues facing Britain towards Europe and immigration.  Narrow focus of the debate is the result of British voters ignorance towards European union structure. Instead of answering the important questions we have narrow focus on immigration, regulation. Feeding off the failure to discuss issues facing Britain for decades.

Most Britons are largely unaware how many things work the same case with Europe works/institutions at home.

Ignorance towards Europe

Willing to admit that have degree of ignorance towards Europe mainly how the structure now works.  European union how used to think it worked the following institutions doing the following roles.

  • European parliament – Members of parliament puts forward regulation votes on it passes towards the commission.
  • European commission – Given regulation begins to work on finer details before passing it towards national governments to include.
  • European council – European leaders discuss direction should go Europe  along with ideas facing European union have no real say.

Until today was unaware of most of the institutions or the roles they offer.

How the EU works

Little bit of research you can find how the European union works. Following information is from these links, link just condensed it.

European commission – 28 EU commissioners, one for every state focus on each policy area. Commission President leads the commissioners, Commission job is to draft EU laws and act as  “guardian of the treaties”

Council of ministers – Represents governments of the member states, ministers meet regularly according to their policy area.  Detailed negotiations between the Council and the European Parliament help EU laws become part of the national legislation.  Examine draft laws from the commission and make recommendations.  Final text is often compromise after weeks or years of work.

Voting within Council under system called qualified majority voting (QMV). UK has 29 votes each with Germany, France, Italy. Unanimity is required on various subjects no way of forcing things on others. 

European parliament – Only directly elected EU institution overseers of European union.  MEPs now have  “co-decision” powers in nearly all policy areas.  Helping to shape EU laws on equal basis with the Council.   Parliament still has to vote on any legalization, signs off on EU budget signs off on commissions decisions.

European External Action Service – EU “one voice” internationally, helping to push common EU foreign policy.

European court of justice –  Court which makes sure all nations follow EU law and settles disputes.

UK government structure

Little curious decided to look at how UK government structure goes.  Source from Gov.uk

  • Prime minister head of the UK government – Oversees the Civil Service and government agencies, appoints members of the government. Ministers are members of the House of Commons and House of Lords.  Responsible for the departments.  Departments and their agencies are responsible for putting government policy into practise.
  • The Civil Service does the practical and administrative work of government. Coordinated and managed by the Prime Minister, in their role as Minister for the Civil Service.
  • The Cabinet –  Senior members of government. Every week during Parliament, members of the Cabinet/ministers/secretaries of state. Discuss most important issues for the Government.
  • Devolved government – Devolved administrations are responsible for many domestic policy issues, and their Parliaments/Assemblies have law-making powers for those areas.
  • Local government – Councils often county councils and district, borough or city councils. Councils make and carry out decisions on local services.
  •  Parliament – Role look at what government is doing , debate issues and pass new laws.

Comparing European union and United kingdom

Okay it hard to make compared directly but going to try due to being curious.  Oversimplification I know but given one or two arguments against the EU decided it worth thinking about.

European commission shares some cross over Civil service within United kingdom.  Elected officials work with unelected officials keeping Government machine running. Various departments linked together working with civil service to complete the same goals.    Both are the central of Government with unelected officials with elected working together.  Central point of European Union handling many of the same tasks as the civil service does. 

Council of ministers = Cabinet/house of lords/civil service?

Made up of 28 permanent ministers, national governments select a representative often somebody with experience within Civil service. Meeting regularly according to their policy area. Detailed negotiations between the Council and the European Parliament help EU laws become part of the national legislation.  Examine draft laws from the commission and make recommendations. Final text is often compromise after weeks or years of work.

Like United Kingdom has it own Departments which focus on various topics.

Council of ministers is like the Cabinet apart from not made up of elected officials.  More like administration committee/political committee.

European parliament – House of Commons?

MEPs now have  “co-decision” powers in nearly all policy areas.  Equal power to the Council, parliament can block legalization/decisions.

European External Action Service close to the foreign office but each nation has it own foreign office.  More like action group getting things done which everybody agrees on goal wise.

Conclusion – European union stops national governments from doing whatever it wants and that good thing.  Can stop Britain becoming a tax haven with rock bottom taxes or protecting sugar farmers.  Very much like the current system within the UK designed to stop the Government doing whatever it wants but stronger.

Don’t want johnny foreigner making my rules complaint

Often a common complaint but UK does have major say at various stages.  Has various veto power, seats on various committees, bodies and anything else.  Very large voting block when comes to MEPs, council of ministers.  When you ask what is wrong with current system most can’t answer and just repeat.

This common complaint pretty irrational when you compared to the United kingdom system which devolve decisions making from citizens towards officials.   Therefore people who dislike johnny foreigner would like to see breakup of United kingdom with governments being setup in every town. Complaint could be applied without much effort towards current united kingdom structure. 

Eurosceptic vs europhile?

Skeptical of both the United Kingdom Government, European project.  On balance would be pragmatic Europhile that wants serious reform of the European Union and Eurozone.  Would like pragmatic reform splitting European Union andEurozone.  Beginning to deal with migration issues and economic issues facing the Eurozone.  Concern over the transparency of many decisions. Even some minor changes with transparency would be useful and helpful.  However understand that want within political landscape for far-reaching reforms is unlikely.  Failed economic policy has caused far more citzeens to be skeptical. 

European union allows nations to work together for common goal blocks governments from doing whatever it wants.  Price is degree of lost national sovereignty for influence and power. European union is very much conservatism at heart.

Some of the biggest moment within history has come as the result of political unions.  America created global institutions which allowed it shape the world it own direction.  Europe holds the same opportunity to the same thing.   We can set the rules with others who agree with us or follow rules set by somebody else.  Rather set the rules with others who agree with us and share the same goals over follow.

Within the best interests for the United kingdom to stay within European union.  Loss of sovereignty much like devolving decision-making towards elected MPs.   Required to make Government work many don’t want to hear that but it true.  System needs more transparency, much like westminster hidden away is bad.   Okay to have some skeptical towards the Union or Government.  Idea behind European Union is deep-rooted conservatism in my eyes.  Concern the vote ends up being about vague idea behind Union, David Cameron reforms, vote of no confidence and economic troubles. Over the potential outcomes from both sides of the argument.

European union an opportunity not something to fear, was born out of shared goals.

Writing this out has made my place clear we must stay within Union and reform it.

Concern

Referendum ends up being vote on David Cameron’s conservative party running of the United Kingdom.  WIth people protest voting against the advice of David Cameron.  Fear that general ignorance lack of knowledge feeds into this whole campaign.  Wrong conclusion drawn when comes causality.  Britain has often rejected radical extreme viewpoints very conservative which why the term centre ground exists.

Economics, Journal, Politics, Thoughts

Unemployment

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Wrote a piece on unemployment some time ago, under the title unemployment grandiose of delusion.  Within that post talked about welfare system mainly benefit spending, populist policies, economic and personal experience.  Everybody has experience of unemployment from personal level to knowing others in that position.  Social problem with negative economic outcomes causing issues within the labour market.  Even with basic knowledge you can understand the whole concept.

Curious how measuring unemployment works this link explains the definition.  United Kingdom currently has lower unemployment compared to pre crisis.  Worth noting need to look at the numbers together compared to employment total.   Population has increased messing up the numbers even more this growth does not tell the whole story accurately.  Looking over the numbers you see self employment record high in total, almost the same level as public sector employment. Part time employment was increased, full time employment is down.  Most of the growth has been within London when comes to jobs with everybody else having less jobs growth.  Once you start to factor in these variables things become less good.  Productivity growth is low with wage growth, self employment does not appear to be doing much.  Self employment often means lower average wage compared to everybody else and not included in wage numbers.

Measuring unemployment by Labour force survey could have it own errors within it.  UK is far from full employment instead looks to have loads of slack within the economy.  Bank of England made a blog post on the subject of job market pairing people with right job.  Bank of underground blog post.

Unemployment within the UK looks to bad even worse compared to the official numbers with negative outcomes being major policy problem.  Government however is kicking the tin can down the road.  Lazy people are not holding the labour market back so what is.  Answer lies within basic idea of demand and only one source which can give more demand.  Government fiscal spending

Moving away from the subject of unemployment back to my own personal experience.

Finding a job is not easy and rejection makes you feel worthless.  Decided to keep spreadsheet with detailed information on every job application.  Mental health has taken a hit, serious hit when comes to being jobless. Unemployment is social problem with economic negative outcomes yet nobody wants to deal with it.  Time to talk more about the subject along with update on my personal experience so far.  Who knows maybe I do updates per month on the subject much to talk about from mental impacts to general health. Hoping to hear back from couple jobs soon but who knows.

Journal, Labour, Politics, Thoughts

Thoughts EU referendum

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Thoughts EU referendum

Conservative party promise of european union referendum had to be completed after the general election. David Cameron has spent the last couple of months visiting European union leaders talking about negotiations ahead of the united kingdom referendum. Average British voter is conservative don’t like radical change, sceptical of the state.   Plus the average British voter does not follow politics closely only follows it for couple of weeks.  David cameron is quite showman for this group targeting his messages directly to them. Historic polling has show immigration concern to be always level no matter the figure.  Once again historic polling shows european union to be low on the list of concerns.  Voters care more about jobs, schools, NHS even have better knowledge on these subjects.  British voters have been shown be ignorant when comes towards european union. British support free movement but deeply sceptical of others coming here.  Conservative party created a campaign to focus on non problem but turned it into a problem.  In work benefits have been the main focus, full negotiation was never going to happen.  David Cameron has showed he wants to stay in by targeting this non issue as an issue.   Referendum has been designed to answer populist politics minor concern for voters and keep eurosceptic MPs happy. Referendum therefore for small group within the Conservative party given talking about just immigration.  Voter apathy is justify given how the united kingdom parties have acted.   Unknown Jeremy Corbyn views on European union guessing he more Conservative compared to the Conservative party.  Poor media management means we don’t know his views.

European union faces a crisis with no leadership or desire to change. David Cameron could been leading the charge for reformed union dealing head on with issues at hand.  Negotiations could seen minor changes to the tax systems across all european union nations.  Country by country reporting of taxes paid, ending tax havens taking real action against tax avoidance.  Reforming the migrant system within union so easier to come here by legal channels linking up all nations under the same system.  Further cooperation when comes to information sharing and resource sharing. David Cameron does not have any desire to change shape of europe or united kingdom. Negotiations narrow focus on this non issue tells the whole story about europe.  Any talk of anything different is viewed as radical nonsense but that what caused this negotiation in the first place.  Failure to answer voter concerns has created an even bigger problem.   Immigrant problem is more economic with dose of social policy failure.

Problem with politics subject is complex patchwork quilt.  Some of my views could be conservative, liberal, socialist.  Not even sure on the definition of each of these due to vast range of subjects.

Conservative reforms

Original reforms have pretty much disappeared not going to lie I have no idea on newest reform being put forward.  Emergency brake for in work benefits, got no idea what reforms mean in total. Some within the party want the impossible to happen others just want to be seen as doing something.

Reforms I want

Tax reforms country by country reporting

Tax standardize across member states

Universal migration system legal channels with shared resources/funding

Standardize cooperation when comes to information sharing

ECB monetary policy reform changing mandate

Fiscal policy expansion

Euro bonds

Improving the economic situation at the heart of the eurozone. Unlikely that any of the above is going to happen no desire to improve European union.  Likely to vote for remain but don’t agree with David Cameron changes which are window dressing.

 

Journal, Politics

Unchristian David Cameron values

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David Cameron used his Christmas speech this year asking people ‘reflect on Christian values’

Two points to made here the message is vague hard to take any real offence and why people like him.  David Cameron avoids conflict anything which can cause offence tries to avoid instead putting out messages which suit the moment.  We don’t know what Cameron stands for because he avoids telling us instead telling us what we want to hear.   Obvious that his speech was talking to people who completely unaware who he is.  Average person in Britain finds it hard to name current government or any names from the front bench.  Therefore Cameron success can be found within the message and his main weakness.  Osborne and Cameron very similar to each other both think ahead try to avoid conflicts which end up hurting them.  Both lack any sort of moral backbone or connection to the real world.

Even the liberal democrats understand moral condemnation is required to some choices.

Cameron words are hollow empty when you look at his actions which very much go against the values he so called protect.   Don’t think he even understands what his message means not only person to be thinking this.  Common theme his speech are often vague giving very little away letting you take away what you want from it.  Over at the independent voices section you can find the following piece.. http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/david-camerons-britain-is-profoundly-un-christian-a6785596.html

Now only if you could take his skills add some moral fibre who knows could have a force to beat him.  However…the real threat is ahead comes from next leader who could be Boris or Osborne. Money is on Boris very much like David Cameron but liked more.

Reality is David Cameron makes me ashamed with current direction we’re moving.

 

 

Labour, Politics

Scapegoat immigrant

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Scapegoat immigrant

Scapegoat immigrant has been blamed for basic failure of the modern capitalist economy. Capitalist system has helped solve the supply issue within the economy but failed the demand side of things.

Issue right now loads of supply but no demand nobody is willing to spend. Policy makers are solving half the equation giving the wrong answer wondering what the hell happened.

Focus on supply side reforms has not fixed the demand issue and instead reduced demand by laying off workers and reducing incomes [wages/benefits]. Reducing fiscal spending has made the economy stagnant and reduced potential growth leading to death spiral. Rich have gotten richer but decided to push up asset prices over spend how many pairs of jeans can one millionaire buy a year. Current system would make sense if that millionaire was buying food/clothes spending his money for his workers but that not the case. Many these people are closet socialists in some twisted sense..

Funny how people believe in the free market but willing to add protectionism policies which reduce growth and income. Free market is great due to innovation by luck, not due to greater competition or efficiency.

Economic uncertainty caused by the wrong policy choices have had massive impact on people. Politicians have been unwilling to admit they got things wrong instead picked a obvious Scapegoat. Just like the economy people won’t trust us if we peddle this myths instead of taking them on. Real leaders lead not follow the pack. Fix the economic uncertainty come up with better social integration model you fixed the issue.

Start is being honest with voters and talk to them. Problem is how?

Labour, Politics

Two Labours

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Political parties have often been board church of people first past the post makes this marriage even more necessary.  Talk of the centre ground part, this in part comes from the current voting system.  Recently been talk about the divide within Labour party but this ignores reality always been board church.   All sides within the party must work together if wants power does mean compromising.  Mistakes have been made criticism along with ideas and support is required from every side. Briefing against your own leader does not help your cause only increases the length of time out of power.  Cold war against Corbyn is unlikely to solve Labours woes instead supporting him and understanding what happened is required.  Various wings of the party have failed to learn from history repeating same mistakes.

Willing to admit Corbyn so far has failed on various fronts.  Government has been given loads of space when should be sweating due to moving the goal posts.  What has happened instead is moving towards populist policy instead of dispelling some myths.  Both sides of the party have made this mistake and failed to take hold of the message or even communicated correctly. Speculation with reports of fighting is not helpful fails to learn from the past.

End of the day all Labour members/supporters and voters want Labour government.

Wanted a leader who is media message is perfect, can talk to people, gives us an alternate.   Best we have is Corbyn who media management has been lacklustre with unhappy parliamentary Labour party who is unwilling to move on from the past.  Hardcore Corbyn supporters also unwilling to move on from the past.  Corbyn would not have won within winning the so called centre ground which speaks volumes of the disconnect.  Labour party right now feels more like student politics even the grown up parliamentary Labour party is looking more like student union.

Party needs to tell some cold hard truths and attack myths along with paint an alternate vision. Tories have built up big collection of myths which are easy to attack and vision does not match reality.  You know that Apprenticeship levy was abolished by Mrs. Thatcher and going to cost business millions of pounds a year extra tax.  Police spending has been cut by 2.4% but nobody noticed that…

If the parliamentary Labour party wants to win over Corbyn supporters should start doing his job for him.  Corbyn could not win within taking the centre group of the Labour party and setting his own narrative keeping on message.  Attacking Corbyn only makes the task of removing him much harder and getting back into power.  Doing a better job taking his message, painting your own narrative is how you win.   Political spin is required and media control.  Hints that some within the opposition understand the above point and want to win over the rebel membership.

Some view me as hardcore leftie not even close 🙂

 

Labour, Politics, Thoughts

Syria air strikes

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Vote on air strikes in Syria is due tonight 10pm by MPs [Members of parliament] from House of Commons of the United Kingdom.  United Kingdom is already part of air strikes in Iraq, conservative party failed in 2013 to win support for air strikes.  Situation within middle east is now much worse, civil war in Syria has become frozen conflict.  Declining influence result power vacuum extremism groups taking hold with terror attacks across the middle east.  Soft power with hard power only way of fixing this issue.  Does mean economic action with major soft power and troops.  Economic action forcing parties to the table would be useful start.  Overconfident we can fix this this issue with just air strikes.

Russia is willing to play role within middle east we should let them help.

Do not support air strikes without action in other areas just wishful thinking air strikes creates frozen conflict.  Home growth terror is created by social issues at home economic mainly with social. What we can do is help create more peaceful solution to the middle east.  Language of war is not helpful should not be doing what opponents want.  Want war with unrest with highly emotionally language.

Reality sometimes problems don’t have solutions.

Actions so far in Iraq have proved that half measures like air strikes only get you so far.   Argument for air strikes based on somebody else doing the heavy lifting with wishful thinking.  Hope Labour MPs don’t vote in favour…

If I was Labour MP would be voting against the motion.

Politics, Thoughts

Gun politics outsider view

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Gun control bring up some questions about the society you want to live in.  Want to live in society which mass shootings are normal move to a war zone.  When prevention could have stopped these mass shootings you have to ask did was no action taken. Prevention policy common place for many elements of government policy.  Example seat belts helped cut deaths from car accidents some how with guns we can’t take any action.  Firearm death are now almost more common compared to car accident deaths in America.  Data from http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/injury.htm 2011 is latest data.

Motor vehicle deaths 33,804

Firearm deaths 33,636.

Cost benefit for prevention on many issues creates saving in the long-term.  Issue at hand has many factors but gun control changes could have big short-term impact on reducing these numbers.  People seek quick fix avoiding other options which they don’t agree with.  America has this issue which sadly the evidence backs up from most of the world. Only places which have far more firearm deaths, failed states, war zones and poverty with high crime.  Evidence around the world tougher gun control results in less deaths.  Harder for criminals to get hold of weapons and use them.  However we’re trying to close the stable door after horse has bolted.  Lessons learnt from around the world when it comes to solving that problem.

Far more people die from firearms every year over terror attacks yet we respond to unlikely events.

More guns!!!!

War zones are known for being safer over average neighbourhood.  Don’t understand why you want more guns to solve problem created by access to weapons.  Only argument one can make is these events keep happening. America is only nation which decreases gun laws in response to these events every other nation has harsher laws. Case for stronger background checks and even restrictions.  Could be something simple or big restrictions. Standardize gun laws could be part of the solution.

Argument on the changes which could happen over not needing them.

Last point healthcare provisions mainly mental health standardize and free to support people who need it.  That is leading onwards to another debate which badly needs to happen.

As an outsider I find the debate interesting along with saddening. American society appears unlikely to ask hard questions against some very powerful vested interest groups.

Journal, Politics, Thoughts

Train platform politics

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Social media helped me get interested in politics months talking about it online couple months ago decided time to help out.  Talking only gets you so far you need action in order to get your way. Longest period of time noticed voter apathy about issues.  Big shock seeing voter apathy and jumping into the deep end with people who do care.

My generation has voter apathy on an epic scale being less likely to vote compared to any other group.  Incomes of this generation have suffered likely to become first generation to be indebted OAPs.  Result is lower incomes, less wealth and indebted with kids indebted once we die. Gaps between the have not and haves is likely to grow as wealth is passed down to generations.  Suffering with lower incomes likely to suffer from public service cuts all for tax cuts.  Inequality is set to expand between generations with wealth being the main driver.

Older generations have gained so many benefits from past growth gained wealth, massive increases incomes and lower taxes.  Older voters are more likely to voter compared to any demographic. Most members of political parties are older.

Trains and politics

At the train station waiting on the platform I had the pleasure to bump into an older Scottish gentlemen.

Rare to see somebody willing to be friendly to random people but so welcoming and warm.

What voter apathy?

Within 30 seconds about 5 people was talking about politics. Makes me wonder if we do have apathy or politicians are hard to reach. Language is another factor with avoid answering the questions language turning people off.

Soon the subject of travel came up due to being a train station.  Before long range of subjects was being talked about on the platform.  Gentlemen was confused by voter apathy, why people did not vote but would vote for x factor.  Gentlemen viewed himself as Left wing socialist but as somebody pointed out most voters don’t.  Certain parties have been efficient in making their language even policy appear neutral to win over people. Centre political parties do just that swing to suit the mood with some ideology direction pushing them in a certain direction.

People did agree with some of his socialists values, new Labour had some socialists values along with policy bundled with it.

Direction

We all want the same thing just don’t agree on the same direction.  Travel destination for both of us was different along with ideology but shared the same values.

 

Journal, Labour, Politics, Thoughts

Tom and Jerry: Labour leadership thoughts

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Labour leadership election has ended, Jeremy Corbyn winning with 59.5% of the vote.  Race was meant to be closer however Corbyn was able to win out right just like Tony Blair did.

Speechless victory nothing short of outstanding given Corbyn just reached the requirements.

Jeremy supporters created a powerful coalition over number of years, needed a candidate his supporters sealed the deal.  Tom Watson supporters had only one candidate in mind with his supporters working on building a coalition within the party.  Membership has picked Tom and Jerry to lead them.

Old coalition of New Labour or centrists is defeated.  Different shades of Labour but share some common ground.  Both in the past have been rebels, Jeremy avoiding front bench with Tom serving only to leave. Profile wise Jeremy bold radical against the standard, Tom is tradition, focused on grass roots.  Common ground both ran on platforms which was positive and focused on change. To win Labour needs a grand coalition of voters.  Remains to be seen if the Jeremy can bridge the gap between PLP to membership or build a coalition of voters.  Tom should be able to help massive network of connections within the party which was able to help win.

Result now means the party is going to be change both want to see radical changes.  Movement roots being efficient in how it campaigns.  Party of government in the waiting with the power to move the membership.

Whatever the result task of victory in 2020 is massive with major forces to beat.  Party needs to avoid giving extra ammo to the conservative focus on being ruthless. Challenge for Corbyn is keeping his platform without giving ammo.  Expect to see certain policy dropped in favour of debate within the party.  Compromise key for Corbyn to keep hold of power his supporters don’t hold control of key parts of the party.  Mistake for anybody who did not vote for Corbyn to be purged from the party.  Opinion is useful along with their knowledge even experience.

Corbyn should move towards a more moderate centre left platform but keeping his core platform.  Purged people from the party would be a mistake instead should be open to debate and compromise. Centrists have not disappeared they should not be side lined like the left of the party was. Repeating mistakes made by them would be a mistake failure to answer the political winds has resulted in this victory.

 

Corbyn needs sound advice from all sides in order to build a successful platform and reform the party.  Labour is a big church just like United Kingdom you need to win over massive group of voters to win.  Questions over Corbyn ability to win over these groups within the party and beyond.

Whoever was going to lead the party in 2020 would be facing an impossible task.  If Corbyn can help win over 50 more seats growing the movement victory in 2025 could be possible.  I don’t think he can win in 2020 but think he could be the start of something which makes 2025 victory possible.  Labour could turn from being a passive party into a real road block forcing landscape to change.  All sides of the political spectrum should be looking forward to towards the same goal. Little bit of criticism is required with massive amount of debate.   Look forward to working for the party to bring about the change required.

Forces against Labour are going to be moving quickly neutralize the party that is why we need the old guard for advice.

Old guard should not seek to remove him at the first sign of failure his supporters are powerful allies for the party.

Keeping your principles with compromise makes you far stronger as a leader.