Category: Politics

Labour, Politics

Concern about Corbyn

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Concern about Corbyn

Membership was right were right voting for Corbyn!

Frustrated about the Labour party membership voted for serious change. Party was unable answer voter concerns, submitting to poor choices. Organisation failed to understand, membership wanted organisation to think differently.  Clear membership won’t be conned or fooled many want guarantees.  Party won’t return to the good old days of immigration mugs.

Many corbyn voters have bunker mentality, organisation done same in the past.  World is against you, wants to destroy what you started. Many feel party wants to go back to the good old days without you. Narrative of Westminster Elite who hate what you done.  Creating some of mental bunker won’t help must address any critics.  Criticism is healthy thing but many offer uncritical defence avoiding substance behind it.  Avoiding the criticism failing to provide, solutions or address anything.. Dangerous position cost us power in the past.

Many ‘moderates’ willing to admit that Corbyn voters were right.  Started something which many believed was not possible.  Should be respected channelled into effective direction with strong machine behind it.  Mass membership lacks clear direction to be any advantage.  Organization however must make effective use of this movement.  Massive membership does not mean mass movement has started.

Many joined the party under the same principles.   Throwing insults freely around won’t help you win any arguments.   News flash millions voted conservative insulting voters won’t get votes. Corbyn voters must understand people with doubts are not blairites.  Critics are not evil vampires,  valid amount of criticism should not be ignored.

Family spoke fondly of Labour growing up, remember meeting Labour councillors. Membership history joined after GE 2015 defeat.  Welcome Corbyn standing opened up the internal party debate. Still believe Corbyn standing was the right thing to do.   Corbyn gained my 2nd preference vote with Yvette first choice.

Lukewarm support

Corbyn had my lukewarm support,  hoped he would do better.  Tony Blair moment forced Labour rethink how organization was run, thinking differently to win. Given Corbyn time but can’t support Corbyn him.  Unable to grow within the role of Labour leader.   Lacking leadership skills required to lead.  Based on reports with general performance largely ineffective with no internal debate.   Organization has taken on bunker mentality, worse time any group could do it.  Various reports ranging former advisors to MPs saying the same thing.  Concerning Shadow ministers not having discussions can’t get hold of him. Corbyn voters complained party did not listen, now Corbyn is doing the same thing.  Incapable of leading if you can’t have internal policy debate.

Necessary to unite the party around your leadership in order to fulfill role of opposition leader. Can’t be successful playing tennis on chessboard.  Ineffective in getting his message to general population rather incompetence within westminster.   Failed in his daily duties making Labour party suffer as organization.  Real risk that Corbyn could split the party. Corbyn greatest gift to Labour won’t be his leadership what comes next.

Nobody wants to let the Tories do whatever they want.  My generation likely to feel pain for decades due constant weak opposition.  Choice in front of us reunite the party, reform it creating effective election winning machine or crack it apart.   More than willing to support Owen Smith, who can finish the job Corbyn started.  Corbyn needs plan to deal problems not just slogans.  Smith must offer guarantees to the membership.   Both leadership candidates need offer solutions to problems facing the party.

Let’s talk about evil word called compromise

Milk comes in various varieties whole fat, semi skimmed, skimmed and other called fat 1% milk.   Example you like whole fat milk,  don’t have the income to buy semi skimmed or whole fat.  Rest of your family does not mind the cheaper skimmed milk.  Normally people compromise take into account majority view and minority view. Politicians are required to compromise ones who don’t have means to avoid it.   Talking about politicians who can avoid making unpopular decisions.  Can still have principles doing any compromise.  Pragmatism is required dealing with many real life problems.  Reforms without pragmatism get overruled later down the line compared to solutions which do.  Best modern example which comes to mind NHS. Service has many compromises in place in order to exist.

Trying to make the point that compromises are not pure evil.  Should not dismiss view of others if they disagree with your own views but find common ground.   Instead make arguments which allow you get the compromise you desire. Can all disagree over bits of policy without insulting each other.

End of the day can still have principles when making any compromise.   Humans are irrational we all make bad decisions and choices.  Labour party made series of terrible choices post 2008. Compromises which was made in bad faith against reality.  Undermined economic link to European union which provided us with Brexit result.  Helped caused defeat twice in row made us question many values we hold as a party.

Centre ground problem

Centre ground large majority of voters who come together on series of issues. Political victories require compromises can’t win over any majority without it. Majority made up vast groups of voters, can’t win without winning large groups.  Each group has own set of concerns, values and ideas. Worse certain groups are more likely to vote compared to others.  Polling suggests Corbyn is deeply unpopular with every voter group.  Weak support with young voters which is declining.  Almost no support with big important voter demographics.   Can’t reach every group using social media echo chamber.

Opportunity

Opportunity post Brexit building majority of voters. Party must be willing to listen, learning from the past.  Fear small minority within the party, who don’t wish take advantage.  Current leadership unable use movement it created. Hate terms like right/left wing apologize in advance for next sentence. Right created majority could times in row.  Bringing together key groups to bring us Brexit vote victory.  Left have created a movement, which must listen not become echochamber. Series of compromises is required can’t ignore that.  All wings must come together can’t ignore each other. Left keeping the right honest giving it much needed courage.  Right giving the left must needed lesson can’t change everybody minds.  Compromises are required to rule and get what you want done. Leadership challenge provides Labour with major opportunity for us to work together again.

Big opportunity post Brexit and post Corbyn.   Speaking for majority who clearly not happy.  Very real opportunity to get the compromises required that so many desire. Very real opportunity to be destroyed.

Yes man

Corbyn greatest achievement could be Owen Smith.  Like many of you don’t know anything about Owen Smith.  Understand how some feel that Owen is just another PLP yes man who does not care. Every MP cares which why they decided to stand for public service.

Would you want job which get tons of abuse from the public?  Death threats even the real threat of violence?

Already done job like that gave me mental breakdown.  MPs are just normal people doing this role due caring. People can make choices you disagree with however they still care. May disagree with choices being made by these MPs but does not make them bad people.  We all make choices which many don’t agree with.  Understand how some feel that Owen is just another PLP yes man who does not care.  Every MP cares which why they decided to stand for public service.   Viewing them as the enemy won’t get us far. Rejecting viewpoints as bad faith does not win people. Labour party needs MPs to function within westminster.  Stop treating people like dirt you would hate to be treated the same.

Dislike the show

Don’t dislike the politics of Corbyn however do dislike his leadership.  Failed to turn the Labour organization around into winning machine.   Media operation lacks the talent using mainstream media and social media to full effect.  Total disregard for appearing on TV stations during prime time.  Backroom operation needs complete redesign bringing in the best talent.  Can’t place the blame at somebody else’s door forever.  Can’t go on blaming the ‘media’ for various mistakes you done. Party is not functioning correctly time to change operation behind it. Journalists have reported finding it difficult meeting Labour leadership. Labour Members of Parliament reported the same issues.  Press releases hours late, Journalists given it to late. Can’t name single new Corbyn policy discussed by Labour.  Just views held by Corbyn on subjects quite frankly don’t care about.

Failed create clear coherent position which voters can remember.   After European referendum made clear current operation is broken.

Government in waiting

Labour right now does not look like Government in waiting.  Corbyn does not command the support of the party.  No clear coherent policy position,  opponents have defined us.  Labour needs rethink current approach organization requires deep reform.  Being honest can’t see anyway Labour can be in power.  Principles are sound execution is incoherent, amateur student politics.  Members of Parliament have tried hold Corbyn to account.  Members who voted for him must hold him to account stop blaming others or media.  Now in control of the party do something about it.

Political opponents have in past defined you, now time to define your own image.  Clear coherent narrative is required.  Fear small minority not up to the challenge.  Corbyn Labour failing in the same way as new Labour did in the past

Way forward

Journalist Owen Jones produced this post on medium.  Corbyn needs to address points by Owen Jones with solutions.   Chris Dillow produced various blog posts on Labour.  Most interesting talking about common aim shared by left/right wing view points.   Radical idea floating around shared leadership, great solution which Corbyn could do.    Shaking up the backroom operation at Labour is required.  Organization should seek out talent over like minded yes men.  Organization should combined resources upgrading digital backbone.  Begin to address the communication problems between leaders office and party whips.  Seeking out better ways to communicate with membership.  Seeking out yes men who have no experience or talent won’t help.  Locking people into small bunker does nothing.  

Supporting Smith

Unwilling to offer unconditional support to Owen Smith.  Leadership bid had better media management compared to Corbyn.  Early days yet Smith showing strength even with social media. Addressing problems facing us plus providing solutions.   Saying going to do better is not enough. Clear plan is required bringing on the best talent.  Corbyn allies have blamed poor performance on others.  Smith cannot be allowed to do the same.  Do believe Smith is better suited and has solutions.

Labour, Politics

Labour Leadership thoughts 2016 – Updated

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Membership was right!

Labour party membership in my opinion were right voting for Corbyn.  Clear membership was frustrated with lackluster defense of fiscal policy. Lackluster defense of immigration unwilling to challenge black and white narratives.  Unable to think differently tackle complex issues, dealing with voter concerns without submitting to poor choices. Organisation failed to understand true scope what happened expecting many issues to blow over.  Membership wanted the organisation to think differently.

Noticed many corbyn voters have bunker mentality, organisation have done the same in the past. Feels like the world is against you and wants to destroy what you started. Many feel party wants to go back to the good old days without you.  Notice that westminster Elite has fallen in love with simple Brexit narrative poor old uneducated left behind voted Brexit.  Notice some Corbyn supporters have fallen in love with simple narrative elite against Corbyn.  Easy take this view given negative press coverage.  Criticism is healthy thing but many offer uncritical defence avoiding substance behind it.  Deciding to avoid thinking about criticism,  taking the wrong view point.

Many ‘moderates’ are willing to admit that Corbyn voters were right.  Started something which many lacked the belief was possible. Something which should be respected, plus valued could be major advantage.  Many of us joined the party under the same principles as each other. Throwing insults at each other does nothing to win arguments.   Worse still won’t win over voters hearts insulting them.  Corbyn voters must understand people with doubts are not blairites.  Corbyn was able to wake up large number of people to act in politics.  Organization however must make effective use of this movement.  Massive membership does not mean mass movement has started.

Clear membership won’t be conned or fooled many want guarantees.  Party won’t return to the good old days of immigration mugs. Ignoring problems until things get bad enough people talk about it.

My history with Labour

Family spoke fondly of Labour growing up, remember meeting Labour councillor couple dozen times growing up.  Subject of politics never came up just was in the background.  Membership history starts just after the GE 2015 defeat, kept an eye on politics for years.  Various reasons why I did it, shared many of values with Labour why I joined.  Wanted to support Labour due helping my family over the years.   Felt that Corbyn challenging the current thinking at the time was necessary . Still believe Corbyn standing was the right thing to do.   Corbyn gained my 2nd preference vote with Yvette being my first choice.

Corbyn had my lukewarm support, hoped he would change thinking many had within the party.   Tony Blair moment forced Labour rethink how organization was run and win against any conservatives. Can’t support Corbyn now, lacks the leadership skills required to lead.  Based on reports with general performance largely ineffective with no internal debate.   Organization has taken on bunker mentality, worse time any group could do it.  Various reports ranging former advisors to MPs saying the same thing.  Concerning Shadow ministers not having discussions with the leader.  Incapable of leading if you can’t have internal policy debate.

Necessary to unite the party around your leadership in order to fulfill role of opposition leader. Can’t be successful in getting things done playing to different rules.  Corbyn has been ineffective in getting his message to general population rather incompetence within westminster.   Failed in his daily duties making Labour party suffer as organization.  Real risk that Corbyn could split the party if he carries on without real change. Corbyn voters complained party did not listen, now Corbyn is doing the same thing.

Respect what Corbyn has done opened up the debate.  Nobody wants to let the Tories do whatever they want.  Fear that Corbyn is letting the Tories do just that.  My generation are likely to feel that pain for years.  Choice in front of us reunite the party or crack it apart.  Owen Smith can put Labour in much better shape due to Corbyn’s work.  However he must offer guarantees to the membership. Corbyn greatest gift to Labour won’t be his leadership but forcing the debate to change with surge in membership.  

Compromise

Milk comes in various varieties whole fat, semi skimmed, skimmed and other called fat 1% milk.   Example you like whole fat milk,  don’t have the income to buy semi skimmed or whole fat.  Rest of your family does not mind the cheaper skimmed milk.  Normally people compromise take into account majority view and minority view. Politicians are required to compromise ones who don’t have means to avoid it.   Talking about politicians who can avoid making unpopular decisions.  Can still have principles when doing any compromise.  Pragmatism is required when dealing with many real life problems.  Reforms without pragmatism often get overruled later down the line compared to solutions which do.  Best modern example which comes to mind is the NHS. Service has many compromises in place in order for it to exist.

Trying to make the point that compromises are not pure evil.  Should not dismiss view of others if they disagree with your own views but find common ground.   Instead make arguments which allow you get the compromise you desire.  Centre ground is end of the day large majority of voters who come together on series of issues based on compromise. Political victories are made up vast groups of voters.   Can’t win without winning over large groups of different types of voters.  Each group personal set of values, ideas and issues.  Worse certain groups are more likely to vote compared to others. Recent polling suggests Corbyn is deeply unpopular with over 65s.  One voter group who on average has highest turnout compared to many others.  Can’t reach them using social media often have more conservative personal value views.

End of the day can still have principles when making any compromise.   Humans are irrational we all make bad decisions and choices.   Labour party made series of terrible choices post 2008. Compromises which was made in bad faith against reality.  Undermined economic link to European union which provided us with Brexit result.  Helped caused defeat twice in row made us question many values we hold as a party.

Opportunity

Membership who voted for Corbyn were right on many issues.   Opportunity to learn from the history building on any failure.  Must be willing to listen and learn from your mistakes.  Small minority within the party whatever side who don’t want to listen.  Left have created a movement, which must listen and be listened by the overall party.  Right has made series of compromises which led to victory, must not be ignored.  Both sides must not be ignored coming together.

Corbyn greatest achievement could be Owen Smith forcing his opponents to change their minds.   Left keeping the right honest giving it much needed courage.  Right giving the left must needed lesson can’t change everybody minds.  Compromises are required to rule and get what you want done. Leadership challenge provides Labour with major opportunity for us to work together again and win.  Challenge can provide Labour with new start.  Like many of you don’t know anything about Owen Smith.  Understand how some feel that Owen is just another PLP yes man who does not care. Every MP cares which why they decided to stand for public service.

Would you want job which get tons of abuse from the public?  Death threats even the real threat of violence?

Already done job like that gave me mental breakdown.  MPs are just normal people doing this role due caring. People can make choices you disagree with however they still care.  Some choices made which may morally disagree with however was done in good faith and belief was right. Understand how some feel that Owen is just another PLP yes man who does not care.  Every MP cares which why they decided to stand for public service.   Viewing them as the enemy won’t get us far. Rejecting viewpoints as bad faith does not win people over or the argument. Labour party needs MPs to function within westminster.   Party can’t reunite under Corbyn, not functioning correctly under him.  Can’t name single new Corbyn policy discussed by Labour.  Just views held by Corbyn on subjects quite frankly don’t care about.  Won’t lie want compromises with guarantees for the future. Can all disagree over bits of policy without insulting each other.

United under the same principles yes we can disagree on certain subjects.  We all want Labour led government who follows these principles.  Even under proportional representation we would still have to work together.  Very real opportunity to get the compromises required that so many desire.

Journal, Politics, Thoughts

Trident more questions over answers

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Last night house of commons voted to renew Trident UK nuclear deterrence.    Debate around Trident has been rather simplistic with public media failing to inform or educate on the subject. Nuclear deterrence requires parliament to exercise unlimited sovereignty.  Government decided that giving house of commons vote on the subject means future governments can’t undo that decision.  Shows you that for some matters parliamentary sovereignty is all powerful.  Ministers have been avoiding the subject for some time now kicking the can into the long grass.  Last night House Of Commons decided to stop kicking and start digging.  Just because you win the argument once does not mean the debate is over.  Devil is in the detail with that have some questions still over Trident.

Questions

  • Why have ministers not exercised right to make decisions without parliament?
  • Why the delay if the decision was important?
  • Why was it not taken sooner?
  • Which is more important hard power or soft?
  • UK influence based on military strength?
  • Trident flexile for future threats?
  • Likely future targets or targets in general?
  • Does Trident require parliament before firing?
  • Situations which make Trident worth keeping without use?
  • UK power linked to Trident when other states don’t have nuclear weapons but same influence on global stage?
  • Why are these jobs more important compared to others cut due to spending constraints?
  • Wise to spend 6% of defense spending on one giant project?

Jobs

  • Total number of jobs connected to the program?
  • Total number of jobs directly connected to the program?
  • Total number of jobs directly connected by the supply chain?
  • Total number of jobs which could be relocated to other roles?

Most likely more questions around the whole subject.  Personal thoughts on the subject yet to hear convincing argument for keeping cold war relic. Argument comes down to idiom ‘Keeping up with the joneses’.   Don’t believe Trident is flexible enough for modern world.   Do find it rather frustrating the jobs argument given fiscal spending decline which reduced jobs in public sector.   Being honest feel this only reason behind not scraping the project.  However curious if jobs can’t be transferred with supply chain focused on other roles.  Plus curious how many United Kingdom based jobs are linked with Trident.

Would like to see Trident scaled back with clear plan on ditching nuclear weapons with money spent on other defense projects.  Jobs program designed to keep as many jobs as possible linked.  Willing to show pragmatism when comes to Trident.  Against nuclear weapons in general but understand nobody wants to cut jobs.  Current government has cut jobs in the past for no good reason.

 

Journal, Politics

David Cameron Legacy Successful Failure

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Successful failure

History won’t view David Cameron kindly nothing short of a successful failure.  Economic terms situation now worse, helping stagnate incomes due to fiscal policy choices.  Stalling economic recovery after 2010 due political economic fiscal reduction.   Making potential growth in the future even lower selling off public assets.  Reducing future tax revenues showing serious poor judgement.   Decision to hold referendum on UK European union membership added further uncertainty.   Future for united Kingdom is not very bright due his policy decisions.  Political front helped stoke up fears and pander to xenopedia.  Caused an economic crisis, political crisis and constitutional crisis.   Historians are going to view him as a very successful failure.  Leaving behind rather negative legacy showing poor judgement.

Wanted to keep united kingdom in European union he failed.   Wanted to preserve the union but failed Scotland may leave due Brexit.  Wanted to heal broken Britain but leaves behind country divided with hate crime rising.  Remarkable that David Cameron unlike some prime minister’s leaves office being rather popular. Popular with general public but unpopular with his own party.  Serious vacuum on political accountability, allowed him to avoid responsibility for his actions.  Big reason for these failures lies in economic policy. Highly unnecessary political austerity likely to have contributed to Brexit based on polling data.  Cameron exploited major political vacuum creating narrative allowing him enter number 10.  Lack of vision allowed his rivals to exploit the same mistakes.  Failure to tackle voter grievances and listen let him down.

Wanted to be Blair’s heir but turned out to be cheap tribute group.  Unlike blair lacked vision what he wanted to do.  Instead appeared that David Cameron was just doing the job due being expected. Obvious he did have some political talent riding the populist wave. Worse still everything done was avoidable.  Serious lack of vision helped diminished his premiership.  Serious lack of judgement helped diminished his premiership.  Incredible David Cameron was able to increase number seats sitting government held.  Last time that happened 1832,  Conservatives in 2015 was able to win 12 seat majority.

David Cameron legacy caretaker lacking vision who became successful failure.  Leaving things in worse shape compared to when he started.  Tony Blair cheap tribute group who lacked vision united behind economic illiterate goal.

Journal, Labour, Politics

Hard immigration discussion

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Let’s have a hard discussion on immigration. Voters often say immigration is one of the top concerns this is it complete lie.  Reason why this is a complete lie it’s because most voters. Been informed that immigration is a problem. Historic polling shows the immigration concerns have been a problem for a while now [80 odd years] but only for a small minority . Reality is most grievances have nothing to do with immediate immigration more simply domestic policy. Voters end up discussing economic features or failures in domestic policy.

Bank Of England study into wage impact showed -0.4% on low/unskilled workers.  Current government fiscal policy has had -10% wage impact on almost every worker group.

Hard discussion most people are deeply incorrect on immigration. immigration policy has been good for the country people completely wrong grievances are placed elsewhere. Political establishment have made false promises over tackling these grievances. Turning the immigration system into a complex disaster zone adding more regulation and tape. Voters are fickle bunch changing minds every couple of years. Current immigration debate is while being seen to tackle voter grievances but does not tackle them. Westminster is playing pragmatism and avoiding making rash decisions. Soaking up grievances but not dealing with them Westminster instead made the problem worse. Key problem here is how does Labour tackle this problem voter ignorance. Labour politicians have listen to concerns and give solution to voters. Labour has to champion immigration offering voters solutions to their grievances. Unfortunately telling the truth and facts may not be enough in this case and Labour may have to spin.  Age of information has just allowed misinformation to become the truth. Traditional Labour heartlands may already be lost but Labour can still speak to them.  Party faces two challenges winning over areas which understand immigration benefits and ones which don’t.

Hard discussion on immigration comes down to connecting to voters over immigration.  Strong robust defense of the subject is required we can’t out do other parties.   Instead we could create an even bigger mess which makes things worse.

Journal, Labour, Politics, Thoughts

Post EU Referendum/Corbyn

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United Kingdom referendum on European Union membership has exposed an inconvenient truth. Populist politics are here, lack of political leadership.  Westminster no policy on dealing with voter grievances.  Voters are fickle creatures often with legitimate concerns.   Politicians often exploit these concerns pandering voters.  Voters unwilling to take notice of politics until voting day. Worse still voters display serious lack of knowledge/information on various subjects.  Thinking they know loads about a subject but reality they are completely wrong.  Living in an age of information at your finger tips with voters unwilling to use this resource.  Politicians often don’t listen instead pick up white noise about legitimate concerns.  Worse still politicians are unwilling to admit success or failure.  With voters unable to hold politicians to account due total ignorance.  Claims various institutions are undemocratic often come down to general ignorance.

Important to remember how we got here.  Biggest financial crash which saw the worse decline in incomes blamed on government fiscal policy over financial institutions.  Average voter demanded solutions opposition then exploited this opportunity. Claiming the answer was sharp fiscal cuts, after recent worst economic downturns in modern times.  Economic experts were firmly against the move spent years studying the decision.  Uninformed media pundits proclaimed experts on economic issues. Instead of gaining stability voters was given uncertainty and incompetence.    History is important 1930/40s saw the same conditions legitimate grievances caused by politicians own failure went unchecked. Politicians unwilling to admit features are not bugs, voters are often seek extreme viewpoints for solutions.  Seeking answers to legitimate grievances populism thrives during economic hard times.

Voters often have legitimate grievances,  sometimes going unnoticed.  Majority often ignored until unlike any loud minority. Politicians should listen to grievances, understand what is driving each one. Impossible to understand every grievance sometimes blaming the wrong cause. Politicians should address each grievance pandering only caused more problems. Various historic examples showing that is the case.  False promises reduce voters trust in politicians to solve problems. Seeking out solutions from non things as they are sources often the loud minority takes hold.  Trying to influence voters grievance to the minority cause.

Feel like broken record repeating the above important to remember.  Status quo suffered from serious case of memory lost post 2008. Pundits claim to understand or know what is happening reality they don’t have a clue.   Voters are fickle however want the same thing stability and economic success.

Corbyn should resign from the labour leadership,  lacks the skills required for the role.   Legitimate criticism against the leadership, trying to reply on grievances.   Providing answers when many on the things as they are pander playing to biases,   Lackluster media operation combined with unclear message unable to reach voters.  Constant clear message from loud minority easier to understand over long message.  Labour party members clearly connected to Corbyn vision other candidates failing to offer any vision.  Policy matters at the moment so does vision that connects to voters minds. 

Opposition party role is holding the government to account, providing alternate vision. Leadership has failed on many fronts with various flaws lack of vision is not one of them.   Lackluster response post 2008 is worrying with many seeking populism answers.  Some Labour MPs have gone down the populism route claiming Corbyn answers are nonsense populism.  Unable to understand grievances not even listening to voters.  At the same time jumping on the populism wagon they claim is a real threat.

Personal opinion Corbyn needs to go,  Labour should not ditch his ideas.  Next Leader pragmatic when comes to dealing with voter grievances.  Post 2008 needs answers Labour wants to rule again needs to deal with grievances.

End result does not matter what does matter is the grievances voters displayed.  United Kingdom now suffers various divides with no plan.  United Kingdom now faces this period of uncertainty with serious challenges.   Political made series of crisis with no plan on what comes next.   Voters just want answers with stability back lack of leadership is not clear.   Making matters worse politicians who have helped create this mess don’t want any blame.  Unaccountable politics can do no wrong with nobody holding anybody to account.   Toxic mix of challenges now facing the United Kingdom with serious risk.

Great divide between leave and stay voters is education.  Leavers have far lower level of education compared to stay voters.  Leaving school with just GCSEs gives you far more likelihood voted for leave. Remain voters generally hold A Level or higher majority within this group voting to stay. Labour party must listen to voters trying to understand grievances.  Offering a stability, clear vision of the future and being honest.  Big key lesson to learn current operation is not providing a clear message to voters. Instead of answering any grievances party ignoring them.   Labour should talk about various subjects educating the public explaining if they are features or bugs.  Vast majority of voters don’t trust politicians.   Only need to see what happening in Westminster during this period to see why.

Referendum was one big giant test for Labour with the party failing do some basic mistakes.   Corbyn may hold some answers but not a real leader.  PLP has acted rash in trying to remove Corbyn given how likely another general election this why the decision. Whatever the result never a good time to seek new leadership during this uncertain period.   Europe question is going to stay around for decades now.   

Consequences yet be fully absorbed with many voters no understanding got no idea what they voted on.  Obvious that Westminster has no wish to leave European Union,  rash decision to hold the referendum viewed as a mistake.  Westminster forced to deal with serious consequences not dealing with voter grievances.  Letting fickle voters who lack knowledge on Europe vote on the future European union membership.  Stroking populism fears blaming voter grievances on Europe. Leave campaign was able to win referendum which was non legally binding. Westminster helped create the conditions which allowed leave campaign to win.  Due to voters being fickle politicians have time on their side.  No action taken until politicians have some sort of plan.  Voters wanted quick fix to problems now have to wait.  Politicians not acted on the vote yet due non legally binding.

Vote result may have forced westminster to deal with voter grievances.  Politicians now dealing with policy consequences of the past 40 years.  United Kingdom blighted with populism politics.  Easy to take very pessimistic view given the uncertainty created.  Adding to this politicians have jumped on the populist band wagon do voters being fickle.  Fueling further uncertainty lack of leadership being displayed.  Westminster now has to deal with political made crisis over Europe.  Required is realpolitik pragmatism dealing against with the problems on the table.  Bright side House of commons has shown pragmatism overcoming various problems.   Conservatives fiscal plans are dead showing high levels of pragmatism when required.  Loud minority has no time for pragmatism just seeks power.  Politics has been happy exploit grievances but unwilling calm grievances or offer real solutions.

United Kingdom has couple options on the table.  Highly unlikely that United Kingdom leaves the European Union.  Westminster has couple choices in making things work after the referendum.   Remain has strong majority within westminster any decision to leave would be complex undertaking. Spending cuts has reduced number of experts within UK institutions leading negotiations. Leave campaign goal appears more about power grab over leaving.  Leave politicians unwilling to admit or own up to consequences.   Concerning given how these politicians want to take up the top jobs.  Decision to remain requires dealing with voter grievances.  Owning up to policy consequences and explaining what policy choices mean.  Leave campaign are now backtracking over promises. Remain campaigners warnings seem to have been correct.  More worrying is the fact United Kingdom held non legally binding voted.   Created global turmoil destroying the economic recovery proving how weak it was.  Illegitimate concerns have now become legitimized likely mobilised again. Disenfranchised voters exploited for personal gain. Voter grievances are features of policy decisions. Opportunity to pick up disenfranchised answering grievances.

United Kingdom is now facing a political made crisis.  Facing full-scale crisis in the following areas, Political crisis, Economic crisis, Constitution crisis and Social crisis.

  • Political – General lack of direction within all the mainstream political parties.  Lacking purpose are the Tories who came to power under the promise of fiscal tightness.   Growing number have rejected fiscal plans the party came to power with.   Appears some did not fully understand consequences of this policy.  Labour feeling the aftermath of Tory fiscal plans with many communities worse off.  Party has been unable to correctly challenge the narrative painted by the Tories.  Membership clearly want it challenged with real leadership and vision on the other way.  Soft challenge on the narrative has failed with some wishing to pander.
  • Economic – Uncertainty now stands around European Union membership.  Causing serious economic damage as uncertainty grows.  Weak economic recovery now likely to have died off.  Unbalanced as an economy facing real challenges plus global headwinds.   Required reforms have not been completed in some cases delayed or dropped from the table.  Bank Of England has little to no tools to help the economy.   Politics get in the way of major fiscal support.
  • Constitution –  Patch work repairs to United Kingdom Constitution likely to undo.  Real thinking required how to repair and keep together the Union.  Helping to fix some of the power balances and economic imbalances.   Obvious answer is Federal united kingdom.
  • Social – Growing number of grievances.  Couple nasty social trends which need answers or face going mainstream.

Corbyn unprepared United kingdom is facing biggest set challenges in recent modern times.  Should resign as leader of the Labour party current backdrop demands it.  Require somebody who can give leadership during this difficult period.  Unable to grow into the role addressing any weakness. Necessary to discuss this opportunity calm ruthless pragmatic fashion.  Publicity lost confidence of colleagues Corbyn can’t hang on without causing serious damage.   Labour party often not ruthless enough when comes to getting rid of failing leaders.  Painful to watch this unfold before my eyes given political made crisis unfolding in the background.  Lack of stability coming from westminster.  Corbyn has allowed Westminster unaccountably to carry on.  Wasting opportunity to attack lack of planning when comes to Brexit.  Don’t respect Corbyn used to respect him do his principles, lost my confidence to lead.   Leadership would be Corbyn resigning from the job having laid the groundwork. Don’t wish to give the conservatives feel ride when comes to power and setting the narrative.   Small opportunity to settle grievances getting Labour back into office.  Experiment must end now future of United Kingdom is at risk. Economic experiment from the conservatives have failed. Social experiment has failed fueling grievances.  Failing to dent the conservative narrative he must go. Management has been lacking when comes to the media operation.

Having lost the confidence of colleagues leadership contest is now required.  Corbyn leaving the post would mean he not ultimately included on the ballot.  Resign no place on the leadership ballot. Stand on try to fight off any leadership challenge Corbyn faces ripping the party apart.  Obvious choice would be to resign,  forced to fight very long battle otherwise.  Labour party bigger than one person more than protest movement.  No good scenario for Corbyn to hang on for. Destroying the Labour party defeated almost wiped out.   Depressing to think about it, unlikely things have happened.  Don’t expect that to happen but very messy ending for Corbyn. 

Labour requires pragmatism vision unite every fraction under one banner together. Contradictions heighten until a revolutionary synthesis combines all factions. Divorce is the wrong answer would only be messy.  Regards concerned Labour member who wants a Labour government.

Journal, Politics, Thoughts

Oh dear Brexit…

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Disclaimer:  Suffering from lack of sleep, not eaten much at all.

Okay

Lets not sugar coat anything David Cameron has just made the worse gamble and lost.  Don’t agree with Brexit voters just dropped one hell of a time bomb.  Time to deal with the problems and reach out/listen.

 

 

Politics, Thoughts

More EU Referendum thoughts

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Tomorrow Britain holds a referendum on European union membership.  Little sick of the whole thing opinions being given as facts. No debate just pure focus on domestic.  Referendum has showed that average voters cares little to nothing about what happens in Europe.   Care little to nothing about politics until we feel pain don’t take an active interest in the subject at all.   My position has always been remain within the union.  Currently all issues within the debate purely domestic caused by government policy.  Rather surprising that government has not been held accountable for certain choices.  Uneducated public are being let down by politicians who are not listening like voters until ballot paper day.   Depressing state of politics comes down to couple weeks small minority imprint the issues.  Economic pain caused by the 08 financial crisis still impacts people today and politicians have made things worse.  Made false promises pandering failing to offer solutions, declining to take responsibility.  Any other job these people would be fired due lying and pure incompetence.   Unlikely to never find another job again.  Many on the leave side are doing mini rebellion against Government policy.  Voted in on certain mandate now doing rebellion against that mandate.  Desire to climb up the ladder by stabbing your boss who won against all the odds.   Turns out that current fiscal policy rather hard and has an impact which voters do notice.   Success story only and not my fault is the name of the day somebody else messed up.  

Part of the reason why feel the need to take up an interest in politics.   Nobody else wants to sort out this bloody mess.   Time to repair the relationship between the public and house of commons.  Voters need to take much greater interest in politics.

Economics, Politics, Thoughts

Why Vote Leave have no argument

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Just hearing arguments against the Government domestic policies for last 40 years.  With politicians unwilling to admit consequences or explain that ‘bugs are features’.  Instead see politicians riding the populist wave unwilling to address the root causes.  Group of people who feel things are bad enough they are willing to risk it all.  Unwilling to even see that actions they take would cause more pain not help.

My best advice if you care enough about these issues get involved in politics.  Start doing something to help address any problems you have not just complaint on voting days.   Need to take this advice myself get in contact with my local labour party activists once again.  Make Government accountability your main goal instead of blaming anybody for the problems.

Sovereignty argument

Legal definition of Parliamentary sovereignty, from that definition United kingdom has full sovereignty. Argument is lost before it started unless you wanted a new legal definition.  Confirming United Kingdom still holds the unlimited veto powers.

Definition leave campaigners are using is inaccurate, wrong and spreading lies.  Further this point any trade agreements or membership of international organizations would reduce sovereignty.  Emotional isolation argument pretending to be about sovereignty.  Shifting the blame from domestic executive to European legal executive.   Welcome to explain how membership of the European union is wrong but World Trade Organization is fine.  Could do the same with any institution . 

What is the real intent behind anybody claiming European laws was overruling the UK legal system?

How come the domestic executive has not taken actions against problems reported in newspapers?

Could it be that newspapers are reporting inaccurate information to increase sales?  Failing in any duty to inform the public and educate them.  Causing a recession is not worth it for powers we already have.

No veto over Turkey joining the EU. 

Evidence points to that being incorrect and inaccurate.

Immigration argument

Evidence suggests that low skilled immigration, low skilled workers suffer an negative impact on wages.  Much debate over the impact various studies have shown very minor impact for workers. Government fiscal policy has caused much greater decline in real wages -10% for almost all groups. Impact from immigration on semi/low skilled workers 0.4%. Based on the evidence United Kingdom does not have major amount of low immigration.   Evidence shows that on average migrants have higher level of education compared to UK natives.  Age wise migrants are younger pay in more taxes due to taking up median to high skilled jobs on average.   Younger workers who come here pay taxes using little to no public services.  Evidence does not back up the general assumption that immigration has been terrible.  Reducing immigration would decrease the overall tax base increasing general tax rates.   Negative impact on low end wages is reduced due having a bigger working population paying taxes.

David Cameron pledge to drive immigration down was deeply unrealistic.  Listen to leave campaign your hear they want to increase immigration from outside of the EU.  Nations which have points based system have seen major inflows of people.  Vote leave want to increase immigration but decrease it?

Cost for driving down immigration is not worth it given the economic cost.  Instead the blame policy is designed to avoid criticism for policy failures many have supported but caused great pain to the poor. Social bits of policy we can do help people cope with immigration.

Infrastructure argument

Domestic executive has decreased spending with general population aging and increasing in size. Aging population puts far more strain on infrastructure compared to migrants.  Fallacy to blame this on migrants if anything poor planning from politicians.

Shared benefit

Evidence to support the European Union membership given us great number of benefits.  Helped make the United kingdom economcy far more competitive reduced regulation across Europe.   Trade barriers have declined freedom of movement has allowed travel to be expanded.  Reason why nobody wants us to leave due to being own benefit and their benefit.   Same reasoning could be applied once again to any global institution no campaign for us to leave?

Experts

Some of the Experts who wanted us to join the Euro are supporting leave.   Vast majority are against Brexit, trying to silence experts who disagree with you is silly.

Promises

Both sides have made promises but some won’t admit the truth.  Immigration won’t decline with Brexit or remain won’t decline period.  False promise if you believe that leaving would reduce it. Incredible rubbish has been provided from both sides.

Budget cuts

Blame lies with the Government for cutting public services,  not immigration.  This what happens when you have a fixed fiscal policy so much for the household budget.  Cut backs have caused the strain in public services not slow population growth.

Labour, Politics

10 things moderates need to remember – Labour

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1, Labour lost the general election

Clear blue skies warm spring day, recession is over life is good. Why are people angry? Most pundits offer this sort of white noise confused why people are upset.  Global recession caused many incomes to decline with no recovery, higher taxes lower public spending.   Pay more get less at the same time public services decline.  Failing to inform, explain and educate the general public on the consequences of this policy.  Pundits ignore biggest economic shock to incomes in modern times, blaming the angry voices on populist politicians.  Blaming the symptom not the cause, any different opinion as extreme unable to see biases.  Memory loss when comes to this economic shock which has helped cause this pain is striking. Politicians are famous for spinning biases offering false promises to win.  Empty promises things would get better for the many and spending cuts would make us rich again.

2, Populist politicians rise at heart of westminster

Various parties have now claimed successes as failures which must be corrected. Every action has consequences,  policy decisions taken now have major long term impacts.  Fiscal policy choices taken now have reduce incomes reduced future incomes and degraded public services.   Delayed the recovery cause massive pain for little to no benefit.  Asking the question why voters are angry shows that you don’t understand or listen.  Instead voters get politicians who follow the dog whistle listening to the white noise making poor choices instead of helping.  Switching issues more regularity than swingers do with lovers.   Data that shows voters don’t care about immigration like you think they do.  Focus on immigration has more to do with failure when comes fiscal policy over concern on immigration.  Small minority do care about it however in areas which have low levels of immigration.

3, Centre ground

Much talk about Labour reclaiming the centre ground.  Should avoid upsetting the centre ground follow the Tories.  Reality is Tories have upset the centre ground populist with fiscal policy.  Centre ground shifts all the time failure to convince voters given us major consequences. Britain set for period of low growth due to it fiscal policy, incomes have not recovered.   Centre ground voters suffering the consequences apart from older voters who have benefited in the short term.   Keep being told should still follow the Tories because voters have voted for this.  Ignoring the consequences that have been explained from various economic institutions.  Should not follow the herd blindly but can offer some clues.  Labour needs to win over the centre ground in order to win when comes to first past the post.   However does not mean we can’t be radical convincing voters that troubles facing the nation matters to them.  Obvious examples was Tony Blair, David Cameron with the ‘Debt problem’.  Much talk about the SNP being centre left the reality more towards the centre talking radical but being neutral.  SNP won over the majority by the stable party which does nothing to rock the boat.

4, Consequences

Voters wanted things to return to normal, voted for stability and improving prospect to return. Politicians are leading voters down a road with even worse growth, worse income prospects. Questions about how long this can last for certain voting groups have benefited at expense of others.   Young people often beat economic waves due to time however damage could be permanent.  My generation are facing the worse prospects compared to their parents.   Parents have voted against giving their children more debt assets but given use worse prospects when comes to income/wealth creation.  Likely my generation could see pensions and other benefits disappear.   Reality is the current economic troubles are caused by politics could be solved by some simple fiscal policy.   Worse still failed to listen to voters instead small minority who wanted this for whatever reason.   Failure to convince voters of the truth is leading us down an ugly path. Removing morals for a second the damage done by increasing inequality to growth is massive.  Deaths have been linked towards reducing the social welfare safety net.

5, Looking forward

Tories vague vision only has so much fuel left within the tank.  Highly unlikely but not impossible that voters are going to accept this new fiscal reality.  No overarching desire or support from the general public to see spending decrease even further.   Sense of entitlement from taxpayers that expect certain benefits.   Decreasing the tax base even further puts serious strain on current taxpayers.  Tory party is fighting over the direction of the party, with various wings battling for control. Current rhetoric hints the party may return to 97 fiscal policy.  Painting Labour as the source for current economic problems created by Tory policy.   Attacking Labour on every image front doing damage to the brand.

6, Listen to people 

Labour wants to win needs to listen to voters, convince them concerns matters.   Not enough to tell the truth need to listen, connect with people.   Truth may not be enough may have to spin couple biases to win favour.  Problem here so much distrust towards politicians that going to be hard to pull off.  Needs to reconnect with communities and target Tory voters.  We can’t afford to target non voters who don’t vote.  Can hope to pick them up once we have the voters onboard.  SNP was able to pull off that trick in Scotland once for certain wards.   Should be a serious push in every area talking to Tories/UKIP.   Labour can’t win over small minority but we can win the centre ground support some of these parties gain.   Clear message should be directed towards these groups with major vision presented.   Every major voting block needs to come back towards Labour.  Older voters should listen to concerns convincing them young people matter for own prospects in old age.

7, Message/media management 

Key weakness here is Labour lacking a clear message/vision however all united under couple common values.   Ed miliband biggest mistake failing get this right early on.  Did however connect to various voters with his message at times. Corbyn has followed making the same mistakes for whatever reasoning picking ideology over experience.   Talking about Seumas Milne, Labour’s director of communications being unprepared for the role.   Watching Corbyn you get the sense he was unprepared for the role.  Labour needs to rediscover the dark arts of media management plus spin.   Using these tools to amplify your message, New politics has a place to play.  Every wing of the party needs to understand this weakness and learn from it.  Keep losing due this problem want to win needs solving.

8, Tories are ruthless

Now understand just how ruthless the Tory party can be.  Reason why the party has more years in power compared to Labour.  Party is ruthless Labour needs to rediscover the ruthless nature that is required for politics.  Understand Corbyn wants newer kinder politics does not mean can’t be ruthless with that goal.  Many within the party appear to have given up waiting for the perfect moment to strike. Tories spent years building up a message repairing any image done striking once the groundwork was done.   We can’t afford to wait for voters to turn against the Tories.

9, Blame Corbyn

Easy to blame past leaders much harder to understand what went wrong.  Worse still people attacking him offer no solutions most of the time.  May not be natural allies does not mean you can’t give him advice and offer solutions.  Blindly aimed attacks only weaken your position.  Understand that Corbyn was unprepared for the role however has kept Labour out of populists reach.   Corbyn has made mistakes but no worse compared to what we done in the past.   Corbyn has been small moral position keeping us from being dragged over the edge.  Stability in uncertain times for many members challenging the ideas post 2008.  Trying to blame Corbyn for all your woes is not good starting point.

10,  Loyalty

Have little to no loyalty towards Corbyn his performance has been what I expected.  Backbencher forced to lead who not a leader doing the best he can. Open secret that he was heavily unprepared for the role.   However do have strong amount of loyalty towards the Labour party in general due to the shared values.   Some people have claimed the party is no longer the party they joined and can’t support him.   Labour party is bigger than it leader, Corbyn shares same common values as the party. View Corbyn not as the leader but more the rock keeping us stable.  Down to the party to define the direction and find a better leader.  Should learn from history replace leaders quicker not before giving them enough time. We must learn that voters offer little to no loyalty to politicians.  Seeking to replace leaders once the performance is terrible enough.   Party still the same party as 30 years ago due to the share values.  Some of you may disagree the values have not changed one bit.  Leaving Labour over Corbyn risk the party being corrupted by populist minorities.

 

 

Too Long Didn’t Read

Not enough to tell the truth you need to make people believe and trust you.  We face many challenges going forward failing to learn from past lessons.  Start by listening to concerns understanding the real source.   Can start controlling the message getting that message to voters that need to hear it.  Need to connect with various voting groups not just couple.

I feel like the only person who shares this sort of thinking right now.