Category: Politics

Brexit, Politics, Thoughts

Why I can’t support withdrawal agreement

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Why I can’t support withdrawal agreement

Leaving the European union, means to an end. Conventional wisdom mainstream, would developed a plan. Forging a cross party consensus, letting civil servants work. Listening to experts finding a pragmatic solution. Opposite happened no coherent plan, weak consensus based on the end. Article 50 triggered with two years to complete stage one. With full opposition parties support, similar red lines, blaming each other. Not obvious is what the British want, European diplomats are puzzled. Westminster is consumed around British viewpoint ignoring everything else.A task of leaving is not easy, complicated work requires massive amounts of resources. Based on research 760 international agreements need renegotiations completed. So much for quick and easy, ignorance not a defence. Leaving is like riding a unicycle juggling cats plus writing a speech prize winning novel within 30 minutes. Journalists focus on the bubble, failing to explain or inform. Overly focused on the backstop rest of legislation ignored. Blame is shared across the establishment.
Purpose of the backstop insurance against running out of time. Negotiations over the future need to be solved by 2021. Not designed to keep Britain in the EU by the backdoor. Both sides had to agree to the backstop, consent was given. British politics lacks a clear idea what comes next after the withdrawal agreement. Impossible to craft policy based on lies. With many demanding EU membership, no costs or responsibility. Cheerleaders of an exit, saying current offer is worse compared to membership. Certain critics have offered weak excuses saying they would have to support it. Means to an end, without a real plan. Whatever option is picked, downgrade on the current membership. Brexiteers demands influence over regulation, claiming UK had no influence inside but would outside. Further claims made by the Brexiteers, Europe adds barriers to trade. India on record saying UK blocked European trade agreements over migration. Citizens could enjoy freedom of movement with restrictions on everybody else. Short sighted deep rooted highly complacent arrogant disregard. Rude awakenings to happen towards the complacency showed by the British.
Leaving the European Union going to cause red tape for British business. UK needs to build new regulator bodies. Often claimed regulation cripples business, nobody knows which ones. Common complaint is working time directive, workers to 48 hours a week unless they opt out. Labour market already has very weak enforcement. Heard complaints about environmental regulation, again no single piece is named. What regulation do people disagree with nobody knows or why? Important to understand UK can veto any regulation changes under EU membership. UK civil servants at every stage help craft each EU law. Claimed UK lacks influence within the EU but can have more influence outside. Which one is it over regulation, no voice or has a voice? Impossible paradox which underlines the debate, hidden in plain sight like some other uncomfortable truths.
Worse all sides within the debate ignore the consequences. Dishonest to dismiss each warning, claiming sabotage. Adding barriers makes trading harder that a fact. Condescending to say voters understood, with the establishment not understanding the basics. Politicians claim to be against something they want. A framework around regulations is required, food safety exist for a reason. Business facing higher regulation burden to export or import would cost jobs. Companies are already moving jobs and planning less investment. Result in smaller tax base and economy, not difficult to understand barriers cause problems. Willing to gamble everything, risking the economy and people own livelihoods. The prime minster claims the referendum was about freedom of movement. Ending freedom of movement means removing British citizens right to travel and work. European Union necessary but not perfect, not immune to criticism. British politics is experiencing paralysis, caused by the referendum. Unable to pass the withdrawal agreement, unclear what anybody wants. Both mainstream parties desire similar things based on the red lines.
Incapable to defend freedom of movement. Others claim the mantle was in the name of ducks. Referendum acted as a lighting rod against everything people disliked in general. Will of the people defence, just series of mini majorities. Appropriate term is minority views, purely absolute majority is people don’t want to be poorer but richer. Everybody dreams about being a billionaire, money to buy gold houses. European Union does not stop the Government from dealing with why people claim they voted leave. Leaving does not automatic put right burning injustices. The longest period of time ignored why do people suddenly think things would change.
Conventional wisdom has so far been proved wrong. Cheerleaders have been dismissive, ignoring criticism or reality. European Union referendum was meant to settle internal party disputes. Everything was meant to get better but things going to get worse. Issues are never settled by a lone vote. Undemocratic to permanently lock something never to be touched again. Shocking decisions caused by internal politics within the conservative party made it worse. Decided to refer to just the bad decisions from the last three years. Crafting a political crisis that slowly tearing into the unwritten constitutional rules.

1. David Cameron calls a second referendum.
2. Blocking civil servants planning against all outcomes
3. Trigging article 50 before the UK was prepared
4. Blocking legal advice over article 50
5. MPs votes to trigger article 50
6. MPs is supporting the exit regulations.
7. Not seeking cross party support
8. Red lines over FoM
9. Announcing a general election,
10. No solution for the Irish border

We right now experience a period of uncertainty with decades worth of negotiations. No time to deal with legitimate grievances or problems. No extra money to provide for things people wants. Plague on both houses which nobody really wanted. Watch the excuses appear blaming everything including Europe. All resources directed towards limiting the self-harm. I can’t support the project of leaving understanding the exorbitant costs. I held my nose voting remain, because of David Cameron. Hard to appreciate the chaos voting to leave would cause. Never precisely grasped all the issues, but undertook research trying to inform myself. Frank honestly Northern Ireland was at the back of my mind. Like many viewing Ireland as settled, same view of complacency that union holds. A general messaging by leaves caused deep-seated mistrust my right to travel and work was at grave risk. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. Admitting bad decisions, initial step to correcting it. In any other line of employment would see you sacked. Making people poorer, adding barriers and removing rights. Undemocratic to allow such appeasement to go unchallenged. Complacency is how we got here more it, not the answer.

What happens next nobody knows, political crisis with constitutional system working.  I fear parliament has failed in it duty. Revoke looks like the only option but political toxic.

Brexit, Journal

Brexit oh noes

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Brexit oh noes

I was unprepared for the rain today, washing machine was meant to be active. Failed to plan for the weather turning, failed to prepare any washing. High amount of rain has stopped that plan. Some respects this could be a metaphor for brexit. British euroscepticism looks ignorance on how the EU works. Failing to understand anything about the EU. Mean to the ends screw details. Worrying trend which is concerning given how we meant to leave late march. Government is not ready to leave without a deal or with a deal. Biggest defeat against a sitting government looks unlikely any deal can pass. Westminster is crippled by self negotiations, negotiations with the EU was done months ago. Things are not looking great MPs are demanding the impossible. Focus has been on the backstop, ignoring the real problem. Why the backstop needs to exist in the first place. Unicorns still alive with less than one month to go.  

MPs should be protecting us from economic self harm. Time is running out with all options looking unlikely. My prediction deal passes with new leaders and some public vote happening. Who know what happens I do worry about the future.

Brexit, Journal, Politics, Thoughts

Minority driving policy – Brexit talks

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Minority driving policy – Brexit talks

The United Kingdom owes the European Union money. Parliament signed into law the commitment of these funds.  Including future commitments, example pension payments. Some MPs have claimed that the UK should not honour any contributions it signed.  Citing lack of membership as the reason. Commitments disappear overnight that view is wild oversimplifaction that inaccuarate. Wiping any commitments is a act of bad faith. Why should the Europeans trust us not to rescind any future agreemeants. Not a good way to start negotiations.

Political toxic given the self improsed fiscal constraints.  Narrative was born this was paying for future deal not past commitments.  Reality it paying for past and future commitments after we leave. Rather toxic to be giving away billions. Politicians have created this problem from past decisions. European Union wanted past/future commitments sorted first and trade next. UK goverment wanted to talk about trade first.  Clear deadlock has been caused by UK politicians.  Incomplete internal negotiations within conservative party are now public.  Appears to be three negotiations ongoing.  Conservative party internal ones,  ones towards media by the politicians. Don’t forget the formal most important ones with the Europeans.

Conservative goverment has to make a choice, time is running out. Europeans want this sorted have already moved on.  Threats to rescind make extension agreements even harder to pull off. Leaving has consequences, dishonest to say it won’t. Politicians have been unwilling to admit it has consequences at all. Choice has to be made and presented towards the house of commons.

Leaving without a deal UK is forced into negotiations over WTO membership.  Hundreads of nations with vested interests don’t all share the same goals.  Politicians have ignored this truth which would cause damage and push up prices.  UK would become a 3rd world country subject to delays for any trade. Many politicians instead talk up the idea that it would be a good thing.  Media has been silent on the reality that dropping out on WTO terms would cause.  Little to no discussion about how UK membership is subjuct to negotiations.  Some have been dishonest claiming it would give the UK freedom to do whatever it wants.  UK would become a rule taker over rule maker once leaving.

Three recent examples of rule taking, chlorine-rinsed chicken, Northern Ireland border checks after brexit and Bombardier tariffs.  Only the start of things to come.  Media has failed to explain what taking these rules mean.  Plain english it means can’t trade with other nations who don’t share the same rules. Impossible for Britain to be great free trade leader without ditching every rule and letting cheap imports flood Britain.  Once voters find out makes them poorer the Brexit dream turns to a nightmare.

Whole situation can’t be ignored, wishful thinking won’t make things better.

 

 

Politics, Thoughts

Theresa May reformer or authoritarian?

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Theresa May party conference speech showed conservative party from reformer to iron grip authoritarian. Seeking to answer Corbyn by repeating what it believes in not why it good for you. Overall failing to answer general election result from 2017. Unable to answer clearly or provide solutions to problems. Both parties have been unable to answer real grievances.  Decided to retreat back into the comfort zone. The population has the same desires yet values are massively different. Once you lost control of the narrative rather hard to gain it back. Conservatives were ruthless painting certain leaders as weak and incompetent.  Many view Theresa May as weak, the party have avoided the incompetent label so far. Conservatives have been unable to remove Theresa May or unable to find a replacement. Many view Theresa May as weak, the party have avoided the incompetent label so far. Attacking Corbyn plan to reversal most of the reforms made by the party. Spending the next 5 minutes doing a small reversal. Theresa May best moments have been reforming. At the home

Attacking Corbyn plan to reversal most of the reforms made by the party. Spending the next 5 minutes doing a small reversal. Theresa May best moments have been reforming. At the home office, she took on police racism focus on stop and searches. These bright moments of reform helped the party win power. The liberal side of the party learnt to accept liberal cultural attitudes. Authoritarian language in recent years took it away. Liberals within the party appear to have lost control. Brexit makes the problem even worse. Winners of the debate unable to answer what Brexit means.

Theresa May reformer or authoritarian?

Some ways she a reformer who understands Britain has problems. Understands that markets are required yet rules with the state keeping an eye on things is required. Another hand she rather authoritarian in getting some things done. She was in control of the home office when the immigration vans existed. Impossible to tell what the real Theresa May believes in. Old fashioned conservative with the desire to reform. Forced to be authoritarian to gain favour to win the leadership.
Do wonder what she could have done if her party had not limited her. If she not made so many missteps. Premiership at the moment shows the tragedy of Britain liberal values. Outsiders are attacking social and economic liberalism with no reply from the mainstream. Voters have not changed just want the same as before. The current system is unable to provide that. Centre ground is made up of two groups both have radically different values.

Hope one day we find out what Theresa May believes in.  History going to judge her as a mediocre reformer.

Brexit

Brexit time to stop it

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Leaving the European Union should be stopped. Obvious the Government is unprepared.

No clear details, no reports, no analysis, parliamentary process.

Euratom issues highlight just how flawed the current process is. How many “Euratom style” issues not been considered? I want to know the answer and why. Want to know why this was allowed to happen. Any other job dismissed immediately without pay.

Euratom has real consequences for communities near me. No cheerleader wants to discuss these issues. Attacking people bringing up the problems. Not just Euratom that rubs me the wrong way. Citizen rights are not a play thing.

Leaving the European Union should be stopped period.

Politics

Supply and confidence deal DUP 2017

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The conservative party has made supply and confidence deal with the DUP.  DUP started planning back in 2010 for this moment. Agreement comes at £1.5 billion pound cost over 2 years.  Creation of coordination committee plus bunch of commitments. Support for all Brexit and security legislation. Agreement lasts the lifetime of the Parliament [5 years]. Review in 2 years time end of the current session. 

  • The DUP will support the Tories on all Brexit and security legislation
  • The UK’s 2% Nato defence spending target will continue to be met
  • Cash support for farmers will remain at current levels until the next election
  • Both parties to adhere to commitments in Good Friday Agreement
  • No Irish border poll without “consent of the people”

Northern Ireland power sharing agreement collapsed due renewable Heat Incentive scandal. Whole deal brings up various questions.

Coordination committee what is the purpose?

Ablity to influence goverment policy making?

Direct line to the Goverment?

Ablity to influence legislation that part of the agreement?

Ablity to influence legislation outside of the agreement?

How can both parties adhere to GFA if DUP have direct line with UK goverement?

Cash support for farmers just Northern Ireland or United Kingdom?

DUP wants influence on futurue legislation?

DUP wants further devolution after VAT/corporation tax devoled?

Irish border referendum?

Planning for both outcomes in that referendum?

Impact on the GFA on that referendum?

How come the money has just been found?

 

Most likely more questions can be found.  Big questions to be asked over this funding suddenly being found. Conservatives repeating the economy is strong is an act of bad faith.  10% funding increase for Northern Ireland overnight.

 

Labour

Post-election thoughts – 2017

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Post-election thoughts – 2017

Okay, so GE2017 happened, time to address why we lost. Conservatives are weak won’t remain that way for long. Future campaigns won’t be fighting on the same battle lines as now. Rules could have changed we won’t know yet. Party needs to look at what we did right and wrong. Many non-Corbyn supporters are willing to join the tent. Both sides must stop calling each other names creating real unity. From my own experience this already the case at a local level.

Corbyn now has to beat this result and towards a majority. Created a list of potential challenges standing in his way.

  • Daily politics duties – Bringing the energy from the campaign back to Westminster. Effective opposition picking smart battles and being nimble. Opening up the tent listening to criticism.
  • Looking competent – Looking like a government in waiting.
  • Start treating the British people as grown-ups – Case to be made about popular things and unpopular choices.
  • Brexit something has to give.
  • Winning over Labour to Tory voters

Look forward to answers Labour brings to the table.

Politics, Thoughts

Brexit freedom from?

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Freedom of choice, freedom of speech, an interesting concept.  Many want freedom but freedom from what? How much freedom can one person gain?

According to Micheal Caine leaving the European union was about freedom.  Freedom from the European Union. Unknown what he meant by that statement.  Requires him to defined what he means by European union. Many Brexitterers want free trade with Europe by adding barriers.  Certain that goes against the definition of free trade. Protectionist trade policies do not equal free trade.  State aid won’t save jobs or create new ones.  Worth pointing out that global rules in place on state aid. For all it faults capitalism markets have not destroyed jobs without creating new ones.

Trading requires considerable confidence in each other. Unfortunately, bodies are required to oversee any deals plus deal with disputes.  Legal standpoint it impossible to be free and trade with Europe.  An outdated inaccurate concept which has not been possible for 400 hundred plus years. The legal system does not work based on feeling less sovereignty.

Which why the current solution exists in legal terms.  European court of justice is that body which deals with trade disputes. United Kingdom government red line is European court of justice acting as that body.  Unknown why this position was taken, red line limits what the United Kingdom can achieve. Forces the creation of new body independent of the European court.  Funny enough adds more red tape many claims they want to remove.

Paradox can’t have absolute legal sovereignty if you wish to trade.  Trading requires you givve up some sovereignty. Which begs the question freedom from what? Freedom from trading with the rest of the world?

Journal, Politics

Britain not feeling so good right now

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Britain not feeling so good right now.  General feel things are not good. General public voted to leave the European union.  Based on polling data largely driven by feeling.  Term generation snowflake looks like it has spread across various generations. Inconvenient truth democracy only works if you can change your mind with freedom of ideas.  A far bigger act of bad faith not to open the door to stopping Brexit. Valuable lesson people are not rational and driven by feelings. The government should not hold referendums.

Something sounds too good to be true, it probably is, if

United kingdom has yet to fully recover from 2008.  Many people are still feeling the effects of the 2000s. Not hard to understand why many voted for unicorns and rainbows.  Feeling things are bad why not take a gamble to improve things.  Why the idea of change can be so powerful. Not all leave voters are the same.  The majority was created from a range of groups/ages.

Some want a bigger state or more state control.  Expecting the state to do a better job compared to the free market. Some feel like the United kingdom was powerless within the European union.  Yet support the United kingdom being in other global groups.  Some leavers who wish protect certain industries. Some who want a return to the past.  Some wanted less immigration.

Rainbow coalition, however, feels worse off now compared to before. Unclear rejection of whatever has made them feel worse.  Misdirected anger towards somebody.  Obvious now that decade making Europe a key issue with immigration would cause this.  Combined with a stupid fiscal policy which made people worse off and feels worse off.

Still, view Brexit as a pointless act of self-harm to make you feel better.  Burning the house down due not liking the carpet you picked out. Great depression which has clouded the greatness of the United Kingdom.   Everything that was built is now at very serious risk for no gain.

A50 was sent 4 days ago, goals the Government wanted are ruined.  European union has signaled won’t budge on any of them. Destroying two successful economic/political unions because you feel bad.  Removing freedom to work/live/travel in Europe because you feel like immigration is the problem.  Won’t be silent over this.  Now it time to find a way unite people back together and make them feel better.   Living in the digital age of feelings.