Category: Politics

Brexit, Journal

Brexit oh noes

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Brexit oh noes

I was unprepared for the rain today, washing machine was meant to be active. Failed to plan for the weather turning, failed to prepare any washing. High amount of rain has stopped that plan. Some respects this could be a metaphor for brexit. British euroscepticism looks ignorance on how the EU works. Failing to understand anything about the EU. Mean to the ends screw details. Worrying trend which is concerning given how we meant to leave late march. Government is not ready to leave without a deal or with a deal. Biggest defeat against a sitting government looks unlikely any deal can pass. Westminster is crippled by self negotiations, negotiations with the EU was done months ago. Things are not looking great MPs are demanding the impossible. Focus has been on the backstop, ignoring the real problem. Why the backstop needs to exist in the first place. Unicorns still alive with less than one month to go.  

MPs should be protecting us from economic self harm. Time is running out with all options looking unlikely. My prediction deal passes with new leaders and some public vote happening. Who know what happens I do worry about the future.

Brexit, Journal, Politics, Thoughts

Minority driving policy – Brexit talks

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Minority driving policy – Brexit talks

The United Kingdom owes the European Union money. Parliament signed into law the commitment of these funds.  Including future commitments, example pension payments. Some MPs have claimed that the UK should not honour any contributions it signed.  Citing lack of membership as the reason. Commitments disappear overnight that view is wild oversimplifaction that inaccuarate. Wiping any commitments is a act of bad faith. Why should the Europeans trust us not to rescind any future agreemeants. Not a good way to start negotiations.

Political toxic given the self improsed fiscal constraints.  Narrative was born this was paying for future deal not past commitments.  Reality it paying for past and future commitments after we leave. Rather toxic to be giving away billions. Politicians have created this problem from past decisions. European Union wanted past/future commitments sorted first and trade next. UK goverment wanted to talk about trade first.  Clear deadlock has been caused by UK politicians.  Incomplete internal negotiations within conservative party are now public.  Appears to be three negotiations ongoing.  Conservative party internal ones,  ones towards media by the politicians. Don’t forget the formal most important ones with the Europeans.

Conservative goverment has to make a choice, time is running out. Europeans want this sorted have already moved on.  Threats to rescind make extension agreements even harder to pull off. Leaving has consequences, dishonest to say it won’t. Politicians have been unwilling to admit it has consequences at all. Choice has to be made and presented towards the house of commons.

Leaving without a deal UK is forced into negotiations over WTO membership.  Hundreads of nations with vested interests don’t all share the same goals.  Politicians have ignored this truth which would cause damage and push up prices.  UK would become a 3rd world country subject to delays for any trade. Many politicians instead talk up the idea that it would be a good thing.  Media has been silent on the reality that dropping out on WTO terms would cause.  Little to no discussion about how UK membership is subjuct to negotiations.  Some have been dishonest claiming it would give the UK freedom to do whatever it wants.  UK would become a rule taker over rule maker once leaving.

Three recent examples of rule taking, chlorine-rinsed chicken, Northern Ireland border checks after brexit and Bombardier tariffs.  Only the start of things to come.  Media has failed to explain what taking these rules mean.  Plain english it means can’t trade with other nations who don’t share the same rules. Impossible for Britain to be great free trade leader without ditching every rule and letting cheap imports flood Britain.  Once voters find out makes them poorer the Brexit dream turns to a nightmare.

Whole situation can’t be ignored, wishful thinking won’t make things better.

 

 

Politics, Thoughts

Theresa May reformer or authoritarian?

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Theresa May party conference speech showed conservative party from reformer to iron grip authoritarian. Seeking to answer Corbyn by repeating what it believes in not why it good for you. Overall failing to answer general election result from 2017. Unable to answer clearly or provide solutions to problems. Both parties have been unable to answer real grievances.  Decided to retreat back into the comfort zone. The population has the same desires yet values are massively different. Once you lost control of the narrative rather hard to gain it back. Conservatives were ruthless painting certain leaders as weak and incompetent.  Many view Theresa May as weak, the party have avoided the incompetent label so far. Conservatives have been unable to remove Theresa May or unable to find a replacement. Many view Theresa May as weak, the party have avoided the incompetent label so far. Attacking Corbyn plan to reversal most of the reforms made by the party. Spending the next 5 minutes doing a small reversal. Theresa May best moments have been reforming. At the home

Attacking Corbyn plan to reversal most of the reforms made by the party. Spending the next 5 minutes doing a small reversal. Theresa May best moments have been reforming. At the home office, she took on police racism focus on stop and searches. These bright moments of reform helped the party win power. The liberal side of the party learnt to accept liberal cultural attitudes. Authoritarian language in recent years took it away. Liberals within the party appear to have lost control. Brexit makes the problem even worse. Winners of the debate unable to answer what Brexit means.

Theresa May reformer or authoritarian?

Some ways she a reformer who understands Britain has problems. Understands that markets are required yet rules with the state keeping an eye on things is required. Another hand she rather authoritarian in getting some things done. She was in control of the home office when the immigration vans existed. Impossible to tell what the real Theresa May believes in. Old fashioned conservative with the desire to reform. Forced to be authoritarian to gain favour to win the leadership.
Do wonder what she could have done if her party had not limited her. If she not made so many missteps. Premiership at the moment shows the tragedy of Britain liberal values. Outsiders are attacking social and economic liberalism with no reply from the mainstream. Voters have not changed just want the same as before. The current system is unable to provide that. Centre ground is made up of two groups both have radically different values.

Hope one day we find out what Theresa May believes in.  History going to judge her as a mediocre reformer.

Brexit

Brexit time to stop it

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Leaving the European Union should be stopped. Obvious the Government is unprepared.

No clear details, no reports, no analysis, parliamentary process.

Euratom issues highlight just how flawed the current process is. How many “Euratom style” issues not been considered? I want to know the answer and why. Want to know why this was allowed to happen. Any other job dismissed immediately without pay.

Euratom has real consequences for communities near me. No cheerleader wants to discuss these issues. Attacking people bringing up the problems. Not just Euratom that rubs me the wrong way. Citizen rights are not a play thing.

Leaving the European Union should be stopped period.

Politics

Supply and confidence deal DUP 2017

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The conservative party has made supply and confidence deal with the DUP.  DUP started planning back in 2010 for this moment. Agreement comes at £1.5 billion pound cost over 2 years.  Creation of coordination committee plus bunch of commitments. Support for all Brexit and security legislation. Agreement lasts the lifetime of the Parliament [5 years]. Review in 2 years time end of the current session. 

  • The DUP will support the Tories on all Brexit and security legislation
  • The UK’s 2% Nato defence spending target will continue to be met
  • Cash support for farmers will remain at current levels until the next election
  • Both parties to adhere to commitments in Good Friday Agreement
  • No Irish border poll without “consent of the people”

Northern Ireland power sharing agreement collapsed due renewable Heat Incentive scandal. Whole deal brings up various questions.

Coordination committee what is the purpose?

Ablity to influence goverment policy making?

Direct line to the Goverment?

Ablity to influence legislation that part of the agreement?

Ablity to influence legislation outside of the agreement?

How can both parties adhere to GFA if DUP have direct line with UK goverement?

Cash support for farmers just Northern Ireland or United Kingdom?

DUP wants influence on futurue legislation?

DUP wants further devolution after VAT/corporation tax devoled?

Irish border referendum?

Planning for both outcomes in that referendum?

Impact on the GFA on that referendum?

How come the money has just been found?

 

Most likely more questions can be found.  Big questions to be asked over this funding suddenly being found. Conservatives repeating the economy is strong is an act of bad faith.  10% funding increase for Northern Ireland overnight.

 

Labour

Post-election thoughts – 2017

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Post-election thoughts – 2017

Okay, so GE2017 happened, time to address why we lost. Conservatives are weak won’t remain that way for long. Future campaigns won’t be fighting on the same battle lines as now. Rules could have changed we won’t know yet. Party needs to look at what we did right and wrong. Many non-Corbyn supporters are willing to join the tent. Both sides must stop calling each other names creating real unity. From my own experience this already the case at a local level.

Corbyn now has to beat this result and towards a majority. Created a list of potential challenges standing in his way.

  • Daily politics duties – Bringing the energy from the campaign back to Westminster. Effective opposition picking smart battles and being nimble. Opening up the tent listening to criticism.
  • Looking competent – Looking like a government in waiting.
  • Start treating the British people as grown-ups – Case to be made about popular things and unpopular choices.
  • Brexit something has to give.
  • Winning over Labour to Tory voters

Look forward to answers Labour brings to the table.

Politics, Thoughts

Brexit freedom from?

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Freedom of choice, freedom of speech, an interesting concept.  Many want freedom but freedom from what? How much freedom can one person gain?

According to Micheal Caine leaving the European union was about freedom.  Freedom from the European Union. Unknown what he meant by that statement.  Requires him to defined what he means by European union. Many Brexitterers want free trade with Europe by adding barriers.  Certain that goes against the definition of free trade. Protectionist trade policies do not equal free trade.  State aid won’t save jobs or create new ones.  Worth pointing out that global rules in place on state aid. For all it faults capitalism markets have not destroyed jobs without creating new ones.

Trading requires considerable confidence in each other. Unfortunately, bodies are required to oversee any deals plus deal with disputes.  Legal standpoint it impossible to be free and trade with Europe.  An outdated inaccurate concept which has not been possible for 400 hundred plus years. The legal system does not work based on feeling less sovereignty.

Which why the current solution exists in legal terms.  European court of justice is that body which deals with trade disputes. United Kingdom government red line is European court of justice acting as that body.  Unknown why this position was taken, red line limits what the United Kingdom can achieve. Forces the creation of new body independent of the European court.  Funny enough adds more red tape many claims they want to remove.

Paradox can’t have absolute legal sovereignty if you wish to trade.  Trading requires you givve up some sovereignty. Which begs the question freedom from what? Freedom from trading with the rest of the world?

Journal, Politics

Britain not feeling so good right now

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Britain not feeling so good right now.  General feel things are not good. General public voted to leave the European union.  Based on polling data largely driven by feeling.  Term generation snowflake looks like it has spread across various generations. Inconvenient truth democracy only works if you can change your mind with freedom of ideas.  A far bigger act of bad faith not to open the door to stopping Brexit. Valuable lesson people are not rational and driven by feelings. The government should not hold referendums.

Something sounds too good to be true, it probably is, if

United kingdom has yet to fully recover from 2008.  Many people are still feeling the effects of the 2000s. Not hard to understand why many voted for unicorns and rainbows.  Feeling things are bad why not take a gamble to improve things.  Why the idea of change can be so powerful. Not all leave voters are the same.  The majority was created from a range of groups/ages.

Some want a bigger state or more state control.  Expecting the state to do a better job compared to the free market. Some feel like the United kingdom was powerless within the European union.  Yet support the United kingdom being in other global groups.  Some leavers who wish protect certain industries. Some who want a return to the past.  Some wanted less immigration.

Rainbow coalition, however, feels worse off now compared to before. Unclear rejection of whatever has made them feel worse.  Misdirected anger towards somebody.  Obvious now that decade making Europe a key issue with immigration would cause this.  Combined with a stupid fiscal policy which made people worse off and feels worse off.

Still, view Brexit as a pointless act of self-harm to make you feel better.  Burning the house down due not liking the carpet you picked out. Great depression which has clouded the greatness of the United Kingdom.   Everything that was built is now at very serious risk for no gain.

A50 was sent 4 days ago, goals the Government wanted are ruined.  European union has signaled won’t budge on any of them. Destroying two successful economic/political unions because you feel bad.  Removing freedom to work/live/travel in Europe because you feel like immigration is the problem.  Won’t be silent over this.  Now it time to find a way unite people back together and make them feel better.   Living in the digital age of feelings.

Labour, Politics

10 questions for Corbyn supporters – Labour

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  1. How do you rebuild bridges within the Labour party?
  2. How do you rebuild trust within the Labour party?
  3. How do you build bridges with Tory-leaning voters?
  4. How do you rebuild trust with Tory-learning voters?
  5. How does Labour gain trust on the economy?
  6. How does Labour gain trust on Brexit?
  7. How does Labour change the conversation?
  8. Do you see Labour winning next GE?
  9. Have you done any canvassing?
  10. How involved are you with the party?
Economics, Journal, Politics, Thoughts

Sovereignty and trade thoughts

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Time to talk about sovereignty and trade. The concept of sovereignty causes some rather big problems with trade. Binary version has not existed for hundreds of years.

Hundreds of years nations have transferred sovereignty, allowing standardisation. By doing this allowed nations to trade with each other.  On much smaller scale nations have done the same thing. Towns can trade with each other, reducing barriers causing freedom of capital or labour.  The relationship which has become a permanent feature.  Trade is very closely linked to distance.  Towns miles apart deal more trade with each other.  Local companies trade with each other more over international trade.  Opening up markets have provided them with more opportunities.  Small towns have followed rules set by bigger towns in order to trade. A core principle is required to trade. Standard is set everybody follows that standard to trade. Not by accident can order 10Kg worth of cocoa butter from Japan. Ultimately providing massive wealth to everybody.

Recent years has been calls to restore sovereignty.   Which must mean people want the breakup of the United Kingdom.  Towns split up into groups implement their own parliaments.  Standards disappear due voiding sovereignty.  Trade between towns stops, as a result, everybody gets poorer.  Sovereignty like that is rather outdated, incompatible with any economy.

White paper on Brexit covered the subject of sovereignty. United kingdom just like every town already has absolute sovereignty.

2.1 The sovereignty of Parliament is a fundamental principle of the UK constitution. Whilst Parliament has remained sovereign throughout our membership of the EU, it has not always felt like that.

Government just admitted it straight to the point in absolute certainty. The goal has already been completed yet is included in the aims.

Nobody is calling for the breakup of United kingdom apart from some nationalist parties.  Impact on trade would be massive due to more barriers.  Imagine having to visit customs office every time went into a town. Moving the economy towards the more protectionist model. Many Brexiters claim it would result in a freer trade policy.  Reality would not result in more free trade but less of it.

A couple of questions start to appear.

  • What do people mean by sovereignty?
  • How do people seek to restore sovereignty?
  • How can this policy result in freer trade if we put up barriers?
  • So what do people want to achieve?
  • What does more control mean?

Leaving the European Union seeks to reduce United Kingdom influence.  Transferring sovereignty back reduces direct influence. General public wanted more control, the United Kingdom is getting less. An analogy would be one council leaving a large council group for more funding.  Yet that won’t happen due being a smaller voice. Expect vast majority of people voted with hearts over brain. Obvious that you gain less power/influence. Barriers to trade would cause long term damage and reduce economic growth.  Great act of self-harm which undermines your own desired outcome.

Indicating take back control argument is an emotional cultural response.  Voters wanted to take back control many would be calling for constitutional reform.  The massive amount of mistrust means many don’t trust politicians.  War of misinformation around Europe with over one decade of focus has not helped.  Blaming policy decisions taken in Westminster, on somebody else avoiding blame. Angry at the system lacking trust, that people don’t share the same values or goals.  A massive amount of vision helped create the world around us now many want to set it on fire.

Transferring sovereignty has helped share British values.  Creating wealth for many opening up many opportunities.  Don’t think we need have a debate on the subject. Tackle the problem at its roots. Dealing directly with any grievances.  Requires dealing with the problem not, the symptom.

References

White paper