What does polling tell us about next election?

What does polling tell us about next election?

The answer is not much but does give an idea of the direction. Support declines during this period of time and increasing again when any election happens. However not always certain who going to get that increase in support. Polling is model based on current public opinion, snapshot showing the direction of travel. Any model is subject to margin of error, most of the time you land in the middle. Don’t know is high without any election in sight, more Tory leaning voters who don’t know about 20%. Hyper focus of any election causes people to decide. 

The most likely outcome of next general election, Tory majority smaller than 80. Boris is the glue holding together the Tory majority, one of the reasons behind the decline. Past biases have been reforged; most voters don’t blame Boris but the party. Danger is the feeling loss, sense of grief getting connected to the party after covid.  Toxic party brand coming back would be hard to shake off. Strength of Boris is slowly becoming a weakness, unpopular that now baked in. New Tory voters look similar to the old, any support looks conditional on Boris leadership. Story and message for the Tories exists and voters have general idea what they stand for. Recent events have made some question that belief in Boris. Not willing to abandon the party just yet, patience is draining away. Negative feelings around Boris are starting to settle in. Now just as unpopular as Corbyn was during 2018. No answers yet if that matters. 

Any Labour polling leads mask a complicated picture. Don’t know make any margin of error way bigger than normal. When almost 1/4 of any sample group don’t know and top of swing voters. Starts to get difficult how to produce any polling without wild errors at play. Most voters have negative view of Labour party brand, don’t think they could run things any better. They are clueless about Keir, most not having any opinion on him. Covid is not normal times at all, most voters form some view on leaders of a party within months. Last time this happened was with David Cameron, quickly made himself known during 2007/2008. Labour been flooding the airwaves with policy just nobody is listening. Danger here is without any clear message, voters create that message themselves. Left has tried many times the same message, never working. Bit of humble pie is required here, learning from what the Tories do right and Labour does badly. Voters don’t like insults towards the party they supported, not going to win people over calling them Satan. Lack of positive message about last decade makes it sound like labour failure not winning power. Badly needs an answer to what happened and the party wants moving forward. 

Loads can change but polling with the trend is hinting towards smaller Tory majority. Victory on the back what message however is anybody guess. Unlikely outcomes of hung parliament or Labour collation don’t seem realistic. Labour needs a massive recovery in England, Wales and Scotland. Danger of further decline happening, pain could be far from over yet. Sense of complacency after so much poor performance worries me. Leaning towards the party not improving at all. Major recovery is required to get close, no real evidence that is happening yet.  I don’t think the decline is over yet in certain places or seats. Long trend of decline can be traced back to the 70s. Of course, nothing is certain, politics can be volatile. 

Maybe Labour finds a voice at long last, negative feelings are seal the fate of Boris. Could end up with Labour prime minster after so long. I don’t think covid crisis is going way anytime soon, my gut feeling is voters give Boris one more shot at sorting things out. Tories have been able to reinvent party, even after being in charge for so long. 

So polling hints at smaller Tory majority and long road to recovery for Labour. 

Channel crossings death by design

Channel crossings death by design

Thousands of people every year cross the channel, claims hundreds of lives each year.  We only care once images appear on TV screens of boats not the dead bodies. United Kingdom is outraged at people seeking a new home. The liberal’s failure to challenge dehumanising language is leaving us with blood in the water. Various policy areas, which same thing has been repeated in. Allowed are opponents to frame the debate and control the language. Common ground can be found but we can’t take purity at all cost approach. That means learning from defeat and what any opponents do well. Even from the so-called liberal defenders given little pushback. Only appear to care when it comes to internal power struggles and failing to counter the message.

Deaths do not matter just ‘illegal migration’ more ‘asylum seekers’ not human after all. Falling into this trap means we repeat the same mistakes and nothing gets better. General public are not monsters who hate everything. Drawbridge means that taking this risky unsafe route is only option left. If you want to stop unsafe crossings or reduce deaths need to provide safe routes and make it easier. Cooperation is required and some, humble pie on this British created problem. Tougher approach just leaves us with blood in the water.  These people are doing nothing illegal, want to make the UK their new home. Numbers coming to the UK are tiny, rest of Europe takes in way more people.

We frankly do not deserve them and should be ashamed of how we treat people. Asylum system places limits on what can do and often takes years to complete with perilous little support. I doubt people would enjoy having the same treatment applied to them. And climate change is likely to see way more people being pulled towards us.  Not a single successful nation in the world that does not have migration towards it. Best resource we can export is people. I never been more ashamed to be British than now.

Loads of things we can do but we refuse have decided to blame others. Instead of cooperation decided to demand and give nothing in return. Suits us more for purely political reasons to allow it to carry on. Current channel crossings are death by design and establishment don’t care. Yearly outrage yet no real desire to change policy.

What does UK polling tell us?

What does UK polling tell us?

Polling offers you a brief snapshot, how do people feel about politics. The average British voter keeps politics away from daily life until needs to do something about it. A general rule of thumb during any general election voters minds are focused. Support starts to drift until the next cycle, people can’t remember who they supported last time. Polling offers you a brief snapshot of how people feel. The margin of error must be kept in mind but can give you a sense of direction. Noise in polling comes down to the famous don’t know.

What does the current snapshot tell you? Almost one 1/3 of voters don’t have any views on Keir Starmer. Some negative feelings from the core Tory base, Labour voters have positive feelings. The average person thinks Labour as a brand can’t lead but thinks the man in a suit can some don’t have any views of him. Safe to say the pandemic has delayed voters taking notice. During any crisis people normally give govt full support, again no poltics please we’re british. 

Compare to other opposition leaders at the same time, only David Cameron has similar numbers. Cameron held his cards close to his chest, voters listened to him during the 2008 crisis and his path to number 10 is history. During any crisis need to repeat the same message and get into voters minds. Not enough to say X party is shit, need your own story and message. Need to respond to any crisis, not policy firesale. Labour has made about 200+ policies but not a clear idea or message.

Polling is hinting towards a reduced majority and risk of hung parliament. Tories being biggest party still and Labour not being close to forming a govt alone. The margin of error means most likely looking at a smaller majority. Not certain but still possible increased majority is possible. The ground needed to be retaken is huge and need swing Tory but former Labour / lib dem voters.

Lots of work to do and hard choices need to be made. Loads of seats that last had a Labour MP back in 2001 or 2005 some further back.

No politics please we’re British

The British public doesn’t pay any real attention to daily politics. Westminster in return does not pay any real attention to the public. Makes me think about this quote.

We are what we eat or you are what you eat

A very brief period of courting with various suitors seeking attention. One night stand happens, the result of the general election is called we forget. Don’t bother to inform ourselves, we have more knowledge about the next kettle good compared to political choices ahead. People go back to their daily lives ignoring politics until something happens that barely registering. To make matters worse even the leaders are ignorant of how governance works. Failing to understand or know that does not work like a car. Can pull the lever all you want but things don’t suddenly happen. Even the political class has no clue how things work or run. 

Both sides not understanding each other, each side thinking the worse about the other. High levels of ignorance and mistrust, that has been present for decades. Important to understand that last point, current feelings are nothing new just loyalty has declined. Agreement between everybody is rather messy. Most people don’t have a fixed ideology viewpoint, some lean but most are flexible. Of course, sometimes voters do want conflicting things. A good example is higher spending lower taxes, nobody has found a way to do that. Centre ground is a majority within the grand scheme of things. Voters want to be wooed, the common idea must appease voters but the problem here is that not what people want. For decades politicians have appeased to very worse instincts often presented as the only way to win over the centre-ground. Forget the base that already exists chasing after imagined voters.  

Once a narrative sets in often hard to shake it. The majority fail to educate themselves, history is written by the winners, not losers. Looking at the data Labour lost the retired not the working class. Yet the idea Labour lost the working class or spent all the money took the whole. Weak on crime when record backlog of court cases and lower amount of justice being done. Harsh sentences mean nothing if access to justice is restricted or limited. Education and history are important to help understand how we got here. I was shocked how we got here but once you consider everything it does make sense. My big worry is failing to learn the right lessons and not holding firm. Seeking imagined voters failing to hold on to what base we have. Deeply worried nobody has the right answers. 

A society that is ignorant, lacks the knowledge wonder why voters pick the unfit. Some people take pride in not thinking. I do understand that busy daily lives Westminster is alienly focusing on nonsense bullshit. Hope things can change and the system is repaired. Does require understand everything before coming up with solutions. 

Local elections 2021 – No easy answers

Local elections 2021 – No easy answers

The election happens people are quick to draw rapid conclusions, failing to grasp what happened. The dust has barely settled, X was the problem only if we did this instead. Same old faces turn up on TV to settle old scores. The pattern repeats nobody learns anything further decline happens. Worse still wrong lessons are learnt causing even more damage. Until somebody comes along rebuilds the party because they sort of understand the current map/rules. Tories have been far more successful at doing that. Long term realignment of British politics, sudden seat losses mask slow changes. With the slow steady decline in party loyalty, voters want to shop around now. Signs have been in front of us for decades at this point.

Rules of politics matter deeply at the moment.

Beware of lower turn out clouding things. On average turn out could be 1/4 of GE turnout. Ward data on who could live in that area is now almost one decade out of date. Meaning who could be voting could be deeply different to who you think is. Loads of data that is missing needs to be pieced together. What going on won’t be clear for some time. 

The average voter does not care about politics or even follow it. Finding it hard to name people or even remember how they voted. It complicated puzzle working out how and why people voted for the X party. Sad but true modern politics is full of contradictions, no pundit understands it even social scientists find it difficult to read.

Any big crisis the public pile behind the incumbent government of the day. Giving them the benefit of the doubt to fix things. Global pandemic means voters settle for the known over the unknown. Why rock the boat when nobody could see it coming. Normal rules are suspended until things are sorted. Difficult for any opposition party to get any air time at the best of times. Need laser-like focus and message that does not attack the govt outright.

Pandemic makes campaigning difficult, harder to do all the normal things. 

Labour’s uneasy choice

Hard to draw any real lessons from the current map when the above is so impactful. The obvious point is Labour is facing challenges from all sides. Results show the party losing to the greens/lib dems and Tories. Labour did however make some gains but the picture is mixed. Even on lower turn out recovery has started.  The gap is closing between the main parties but still dangers ahead. New management is largely unknown, the brand is damaged still. Slowly the recovery is happening with voters but a leader needs to be visible. Invisible lawyer man in the suit vibe won’t win any elections or inspire the membership. Does not help to have dozens of ideas or a complete detailed plan. Need something that ties it all together, better story compared to the other side. Long term trend has been against labour in many areas. Sometimes it not about Labour at all. No matter what we try voters did not want to listen. Tories just did better and voters like it more. 

Mountain we face has never been any clearer, to win, we must build a new coalition of voters. Expanding from the current base to former strongholds, grabbing potential ones too. Party must be competitive in existing marginal seats and hold what we got. That means understanding why voters go Tory and how to appeal to a much larger group who could lean Labour. The danger here this not the floor, support can go much lower. Not only that means getting better at playing the game of politics. To do that we must understand the current base and not be embarrassed by it. Above all else, we need to chase voters who could vote for us. That means understanding current voters, not the group we imagined are Labour voters. Can’t afford to marginalise ‘the left’, otherwise, we risk losing ground to the greens and lib dems. Party brand should be seen as safe and none threatening to people who will never vote for us. A difficult balancing act between radical change so many want and conservation instincts others have.  The last big key sticking point is lack of trust. That not going to be easy to address without being realistic. A shopping list of ideas or heavily detailed policy won’t cut it, needs to be a simple package.

A tory party you think we face is not the party we face. Uncomfortable truth no magic bullet exists, many things need to change. We need to learn from our opponents not mock them or say we better than the Tories. Saying the party people voted for is evil won’t get you very far at all. Party loyalty is disappearing at a rapid rate and that message does nothing now. Attacking pork-barrel politics won’t stick but give voters a reason to vote for them. Running on the same old message but the Tories does not cut it. The simple reality is party loyalty at an all-time low, voters shop around. Repeating the time old classic means we don’t really have a clue what to say. Fighting old battles and expecting to face the same opponent. 4 different flavours of the Tory party have beaten us each one with a different set of priorities. The most recent one running as the challenger, but being the incumbent. The only bit of good news here is Brexit is slowly disappearing from the public mind. Divides that caused it to remain wide open.

Tory party story is because of Brexit, more police, nurses and green policies are possible. We need a story that suits us to counter this idea. Gone are the days of Cameron declaring no green crap.  Make no mistake this opponent is way harder to beat, promising higher spending and taxes. Sharp difference from what Cameron promised. You may disagree but the average voter supported it with open arms. They want a good job, a nice house and to be rich. Attacking the rich blindly is attacking voters dreams. Makes no sense too and the appeal is too narrow. Labour offer to voters is a big massive collection of ideas with a green strategy at the heart. The problem is a giant shopping list of priorities, which are difficult to explain together. Needs to be easy to understand clear and focused package.

Greens issues, access to justice and sick pay

I would look at green issues, access to justice and sick pay. The story is needed that pulls all three together.  Left needs more substance that voters care about, right needs more substance that understands the party core vote. Both sides are trying to settle old scores and don’t want to face the music. Tories have moved we have been standing still against 2010s Tories. Certain bits of a policy platform needs to change to suit this reality. Less a shopping list of unachievable goals in the first term. A refined plan that matches our own voter’s priorities and any potential lean labour voters. Elements that are ripe ground like sick pay.  Reforming and scrapping UC party needs to pick one. More muddling through won’t work, we tried that. Not how you build trust with voters who can smell the bullshit from miles away. The strategy of more of the same has failed. Deeply concerned all sides have ideas but making some serious miscalculation who supports the party or could do. Failure to pick shows the deep unease with the choice we face. After some imagined group of voters ignoring everybody else. Trying not to offend anybody but pissing off everybody. Misunderstanding the current voter and chasing some imagined group who don’t exist. Not exactly been a recipe for success so far. 

I do feel Keir should hold his nerve, after these disappointing results. I will give the benefit of the doubt here because of the covid pandemic. Suspension of politics of normal has not helped the party at all. In the coming weeks, things should start returning to normal. The direction of travel should be outlined and made clear. Before covid the strategy focusing on green issues with every policy linked to it. Would appear the problem is the lack of focus and discipline in how to present it. Wide range of goals time to refine it and make it suit now. Don’t want to be hostage to fortune. Flexibility and resilience are needed when come to fighting the Tories. The labour party future depends on us learning the right lessons, understanding the base we have. Finding the lean labour voters who vote Tory, coming with something for them. 

Signs Keir wants former red wall voters but so far no serious offer has been made to anybody. Critics have failed to do the same. To make any serious policy platform need to have a clear understanding of our own voting base and who could join that coalition. Do we focus on the liberal young urban city voter base and cement it or expand to include former red wall voters. Many members disappointed in Keir want the former. Members like me want the latter but Boris has claimed that ground. Does mean understanding, listening to current voters and people who could vote for us. Could be the only way forward for the party. To do that we need to change priorities find a message that suits both. No party has the god-given right to exist and can be replaced. Both sides of the party appear to think the current base has no other place to go. The danger we repeat the same mistakes, chasing imagined group who don’t exist and alienation of people who do vote for us.

Invisible front man magic trick won’t save the party or love bombing voters on green issues. Stronger media presentation is required, giving clear short answers. People should know the face, the rest of the party follows the line. Not easy to do given the rules of the game and conditions. All sides of the party need to unite together, compromise is required. Many members were willing to give Corbyn the benefit of the doubt after series of failures. The same should be given to Keir but we can’t look back repeat the same failed lines. Knives out for Keir at the first sign of trouble won’t do us any good. Changing leaders won’t magically fix everything. Ignoring the conditions laying the blame just on the leadership won’t work.

After Covid, I want a focus on green issues, access to justice and sick pay. Take a bit of policy platform from the right and left on each one. Green issues focus should be on better roads, buses. Ideas like the right to repair, reuse and recycle too. Justice only works if people have access to it. Should be something a former lawyer can feel comfortable talking about. The last point hits that spot the British public sense of fairness. Should help to inspire the base once more which we need to win. More importantly all of the above is something Labour voters can support. 

Climate change from carbon to the metal-based economy

Climate change from carbon to the metal-based economy.

Reducing consumption is missing from the current conversation. Need to deal with current waste, recycling and reuse only gets you so far. Shifting towards making the supply chains more circle recycle and reuse focused. A finite number of resources, need to be efficient, recycle and reuse. The focus so far has been on replacing and ignore the current waste problem. The challenge ahead is massive, need to be more efficient in everything we do. Not only that but learn to recycle and reuse way more. The result is changing how we view the world around us.

Switching to a less carbon-based economy requires metal. Extracting metal is very energy-intense, processing and manufacturing cause environmental damage. Even a minor increase in demand for metals causes huge amounts of damage. An idea we can switch without consequences is nonsense. Old electrical goods are difficult to recycle. Need to redesign the manufacturing process making things easier to recycle and reprocess. Metals can be reprocessed but certain products like batteries waste resources.

Phone companies have started to avoid shipping chargers with phones to lower e-waste. This is rather backwards when they release new models every couple of months. The focus needs to be on sending old phones back, less new phones with a much longer shelf life. Battery recycling research remains rather new, impossible at the moment to get the materials back. The amount of e-waste like phones is a huge problem, nothing like the plastic problem. Elephant in the room is how the recycling industry currently works. Shipping waste around the world, sometimes it can’t even be processed.

Electric cars alone won’t save us, at some point behaviours need to change. In my own opinion, we can increase the quality of everybody life and be environmentally friendly. Need to be honest about the changes needed and the cost of doing nothing. So far nobody wants to address the consumption element. Dreaming of technology saving us from past problems and fixing future issues.

What needs to happen?

Reduce consumption

Recycle more

Reuse materials

Be more efficient

Reshaping how the world works, to stop the climate from restructuring to a new normal. Just moving from carbon to metal would be a giant mistake. Storing up future problems, never addressing the obvious solution. Nobody wants to even touch it and think we can carry on as normal. Sounds a lot like Covid, people thinking we can go back. Failing to see how we got here.

Recovering from Covid pandemic

Recovering from Covid pandemic

Won’t be easy creating the require policy programs. Outstanding question remains is the govt up to the task?

Lost decade almost ended with another recession. Underlying economic numbers before the covid were weak. UK has entered recession, 11 years after the last one. Financial markets caused the great recession, pandemic caused this rapid recession. Loss of confidence changed behaviour, economic activity to decline, any official lock down policy started. Lock down policy is largely driven by public opinion, chaotic approach has not helped. Threat of pandemic was highly probable, experts warned about this threat for some time. Department of health even planned for this event. One simple virus was able to caused biggest economic slowdown in modern history. As turns out economic system today is far less resilience, food supply chain showed weakness. Banking sector this time is far more resilience, other parts of the economy are less resilience. Signs of weakness were present before the outbreak. Unlike the last recession, this mainly a health driven crisis. Dozens of potential outcomes, further shocks are still likely.

Recovery won’t start until confidence returns. Breakdown in confidence caused the economy to slow down, driven by covid 19. Investors have caused negative interest rates, signal they want stronger fiscal policy. This not normal downturn, any response needs to be not normal. Labour market started to suffer big job losses, furlough scheme was quickly created. Scheme covered huge parts of the economy, credit is due for creating massive scheme. Overall it could be argued this design is flawed, broad support doing bare minimum. Barely enough to avoid short term problems, turning health crisis into economic nightmare. Furlough scheme is due to come to an end, real challenge starts now. No clear guidance what policy is going to replace it. No details on what sectors are going to get extra support. Big risk is another outbreak happens with no policy plan. Hoping things go back to normal is unlikely to happen, economic restructuring happens during any recession.

Big unknown element during of this, Boris Johnson lack of clear idealogical direction. Danger here is re-fighting old battles, failing to hold Boris to account. Social safety net is less resilience, unemployment use universal credit. Other benefits during that time, became less generous. Huge problems with employment and support allowance, no benefit was spared.

Taken one decade to combine various benefits into one, designed to lower the welfare cost. System is far less generous, weeks until the first payment. Built in sanctions designed to be harsh, punishing people over supporting. Whole thing is designed to cut costs over support people. Roll out is not even completed at this stage, millions of families still to switch. Covid has exposed fiscal stabilisers was short term political choice. Frankly never designed with fairness, or support in mind. Likely we are facing mass unemployment, system never designed to cope with this outcome. Programs designed to help claimants are gone. Point of the system avoiding people from claiming with weeks until first payment.

Labour market quickly turned negative, major job losses. Forced the conservative party create, furlough scheme. Designed to keep people in jobs. Blanket approach to preserve, protect and stem any job losses. Necessary massive blunt but costly program to run for extended time frame. Details can be debated, loads of flaws including inflexible with fixed end date. Rest of Europe already have furlough schemes built into welfare policies. Smarter flexible approaches which allow for part time work, providing retraining and job creation. UK policy makers had none of that existing structure. Any recession is painful, shape or size is determined by policy response. Choices made during any crisis will define governments. Government policy platform was level up, get brexit done and more public service funding. Pandemic has ruined that policy platform.

About to find causes out how serious each promise was. Doing nothing is not an option at all. Big risk is doing nothing could cause major long term damage. Long term investment promises do little for job losses now. Building roads to nowhere, no real response to now. When reality bites government folds, how much do promises matter to Boris?

Creating giant policy problem, quick answers with no draw backs no thing exists. So far reality has destroy various bits of policy due being to difficult. Large majority is not enough when crisis happen, with no clear ideology thinking.

What levers could be used?

No perfect solution here to serious health crisis.

Increasing benefits to be more generous, existing fiscal stabilisers is another option. Changes to universal credit sanctions, don’t forget about ESA. Sick pay payments increasing the length. Decreasing payment waiting times.

Furlough scheme could be extended, modified providing part time work. Extending support for sectors which can’t operate, retail, tourism and service sectors.

Zombie businesses are real concern but government already given them money. Further grants to help, changing business loans to grants.

Above all else this health crisis not an economic one, any packages must be carefully directed. Opportunity to make long term changes, avoiding short term thinking to create a better system. Based on past behaviour, don’t expect any big major policy shifts. Who knows natural party of government earned that title. UK government can be described authoritarian nationalism populist movement. Party of law and order, wants to break the law. Destroy institutions who hold the executive to account. Brexit project goes against every single traditional principle, thatcherism ideas on state aid is ignored. Yet nobody is willing to challenge or even fight for what they believe in. At the moment they have fallen for their very worse instincts.    Incompetence decision making has got us so far, followed by dozens of U turns towards right policy. Covid 19 pandemic has only just started, big choices far policy makers ahead. Just hope they are willing to listen and learn.

Deep concern UK won’t recover from covid, releasing the very worse instincts. Should not rebuild but create a future everybody can support. Much bigger challenges remain unaddressed I don’t have much faith.

Covid – Dark clouds ahead

Capitalism has been at the heart of the global economic thinking. Liberalism of services, financial markets, goods and labour. No other system has produced results which have massively increased incomes. Various flaws with the current global economy, focusing pure growth and lack of resilience. Just in time supply lines are cheap, efficient but don’t have much resilience. Result cheaper goods, labour becoming cheaper but assets have become inflated. Globalisation has been at heart of economic thinking for decades now. Rapid expansion of financial markets with more traditional trade, combined with services. Light touch on financial market regulation, created risky assets. Opening up local goods to international markets. Geography plays major part in trade, many won’t feel the benefits directly. Trading over any distance requires capital, most businesses are local.

I don’t think destroying capitalism is the answer but reforming it. At the heart of that reform, core concept of resilience. Support for the labour market should be short and longer term focused. Something needs to be done about assets prices. Nations should work together against common threats, covid or climate change have exposed how important that is. We can’t afford to be inward looking. Global food supply chains have been flexible enough during covid but poorer nations have suffered. Resilience should be part of the conversation going forward. All of this requires long term policies, politics should be honest. 

Society as whole needs to ask some pretty difficult questions, may not like the answers. Covid pandemic has crippled my trust in the UK government. I don’t feel safe returning back to normal. Solve the health crisis, bulk of the economic problems disappear. Have big concerns no real long term plan on tackling any problems. Only a desire to blame others. Future is looking rather rubbish. I can only see dark clouds ahead and giant cliff edge caused by brexit getting closer. Maybe this the government we deserve as a society.

Never ending political crisis brexit

Never ending political crisis brexit

Political crisis that has no end, brexit has caused ruin. Ruining anybody once the details become clear. So far destroying two prime minsters May and Cameron. At the heart pure delusion about Britain place in the world. We can become free trade beacon by leaving biggest free trade bloc in the world. Misunderstanding about the process, with no desire to face reality. Backstop in Northern Ireland become an boggy man.  Impossible demands which undermine each other. Claims solutions can we found yet unwilling to commit to the backstop. Britain has avoided the automatic cliff edge by European goodwill. So far international markets have allowed this behavior to go unchallenged we don’t deserve it.

All options look possible, remain or revoke or deal or no deal. And only one option is certain, no deal is the default. Unstable given the current background not looking like long term solutions. Rest of world ignores British made political crisis. Europe not even talking about us, we not even talking to Europe.

Brexit nothing new

Brexit nothing new

Looking increasingly likely United Kingdom leaves the European Union, automatically without any deal by October. Looking increasingly likely we don’t end up leaving at all by October. Leaving was never a single one off event more long series of events. Withdrawal agreement would be a point of no return. Shaping the future relationship it is the hardest possible exit. Decades worth of negotiations whatever option you pick. No real majority at the moment for the easy bit. Entering any relationship from an unstable point never a good start.

Leave supporters refusing to back the current withdrawal agreement. Demanding the government renegotiation over the backstop, other solutions could solve the problem. If you claim other solutions can negate the backstop why not support it? No real risk around the backstop surely?Simply put the solutions don’t exist, current agreement is going to shape the future relationship.

Deeply chaotic exit looks likely, UK politicians have rejected every option. Blaming others for their own mistakes. Remain backing MPs have fallen into line supporting the deal against their better judgment. Leave backing MPs have refused to fall into line but attacked everybody else. Whatever option happens leads to uncertainty, decades worth of negotiations ahead. No deal would spark a series of events to resolve problems around no deal.

Possible the UK ends up not leaving at all, Europeans hold all the cards. Process of article 50 was always flawed method to leave. Time is being wasted as politicians repeat the same mistakes. Reset button is required but even that may not work.