Russia invasion of Ukraine

Russia has attacked and invaded Ukraine again, 8 years ago it took Crimea, 4 years later started arming rebels in Donbass.  Everybody knew this day was coming, warned about it but West largely did nothing. Warm words of support but lacks the desire to defend Ukraine. Nothing short of Western troops would stop Putin now.  Sanctions that hurt Russia but cause pain in the west is off the cards. Just bystanders watching Russia declare war against Ukraine. Appears Putin does not desire another frozen conflict but wants puppet state of Ukraine. Remains unclear how far he wants to go. Frozen conflicts caused by Russia in Georgia, Moldova, trouble is coming back to Bosnia. State of emergency in Moldova, Lithuania, others are watching in horror. Threat to none NATO members is real, refugees are likely cross borders to escape.  Sweden and Finland both are talking about NATO membership. NATO summit is due tomorrow, but nations are talking. I do anything to avoid X but I won’t do that is not good enough.

Putin has priced in the cost of sanctions; military action is only option left. No fly zone over Ukraine created by NATO would be a start. I do fear only way to forward is troops to Ukraine.

Channel crossings death by design

Thousands of people every year cross the channel, claims hundreds of lives each year.  We only care once images appear on TV screens of boats not the dead bodies. United Kingdom is outraged at people seeking a new home. The liberal’s failure to challenge dehumanising language is leaving us with blood in the water. Various policy areas, which same thing has been repeated in. Allowed are opponents to frame the debate and control the language. Common ground can be found but we can’t take purity at all cost approach. That means learning from defeat and what any opponents do well. Even from the so-called liberal defenders given little pushback. Only appear to care when it comes to internal power struggles and failing to counter the message.

Deaths do not matter just ‘illegal migration’ more ‘asylum seekers’ not human after all. Falling into this trap means we repeat the same mistakes and nothing gets better. General public are not monsters who hate everything. Drawbridge means that taking this risky unsafe route is only option left. If you want to stop unsafe crossings or reduce deaths need to provide safe routes and make it easier. Cooperation is required and some, humble pie on this British created problem. Tougher approach just leaves us with blood in the water.  These people are doing nothing illegal, want to make the UK their new home. Numbers coming to the UK are tiny, rest of Europe takes in way more people.

We frankly do not deserve them and should be ashamed of how we treat people. Asylum system places limits on what can do and often takes years to complete with perilous little support. I doubt people would enjoy having the same treatment applied to them. And climate change is likely to see way more people being pulled towards us.  Not a single successful nation in the world that does not have migration towards it. Best resource we can export is people. I never been more ashamed to be British than now.

Loads of things we can do but we refuse have decided to blame others. Instead of cooperation decided to demand and give nothing in return. Suits us more for purely political reasons to allow it to carry on. Current channel crossings are death by design and establishment don’t care. Yearly outrage yet no real desire to change policy.

What does UK polling tell us?

Polling offers you a brief snapshot, how do people feel about politics. The average British voter keeps politics away from daily life until needs to do something about it. A general rule of thumb during any general election voters minds are focused. Support starts to drift until the next cycle, people can’t remember who they supported last time. Polling offers you a brief snapshot of how people feel. The margin of error must be kept in mind but can give you a sense of direction. Noise in polling comes down to the famous don’t know.

What does the current snapshot tell you? Almost one 1/3 of voters don’t have any views on Keir Starmer. Some negative feelings from the core Tory base, Labour voters have positive feelings. The average person thinks Labour as a brand can’t lead but thinks the man in a suit can some don’t have any views of him. Safe to say the pandemic has delayed voters taking notice. During any crisis people normally give govt full support, again no poltics please we’re british. 

Compare to other opposition leaders at the same time, only David Cameron has similar numbers. Cameron held his cards close to his chest, voters listened to him during the 2008 crisis and his path to number 10 is history. During any crisis need to repeat the same message and get into voters minds. Not enough to say X party is shit, need your own story and message. Need to respond to any crisis, not policy firesale. Labour has made about 200+ policies but not a clear idea or message.

Polling is hinting towards a reduced majority and risk of hung parliament. Tories being biggest party still and Labour not being close to forming a govt alone. The margin of error means most likely looking at a smaller majority. Not certain but still possible increased majority is possible. The ground needed to be retaken is huge and need swing Tory but former Labour / lib dem voters.

Lots of work to do and hard choices need to be made. Loads of seats that last had a Labour MP back in 2001 or 2005 some further back.

The British public doesn’t pay any real attention to daily politics. Westminster in return does not pay any real attention to the public. Makes me think about this quote.

We are what we eat or you are what you eat

A very brief period of courting with various suitors seeking attention. One night stand happens, the result of the general election is called we forget. Don’t bother to inform ourselves, we have more knowledge about the next kettle good compared to political choices ahead. People go back to their daily lives ignoring politics until something happens that barely registering. To make matters worse even the leaders are ignorant of how governance works. Failing to understand or know that does not work like a car. Can pull the lever all you want but things don’t suddenly happen. Even the political class has no clue how things work or run. 

Both sides not understanding each other, each side thinking the worse about the other. High levels of ignorance and mistrust, that has been present for decades. Important to understand that last point, current feelings are nothing new just loyalty has declined. Agreement between everybody is rather messy. Most people don’t have a fixed ideology viewpoint, some lean but most are flexible. Of course, sometimes voters do want conflicting things. A good example is higher spending lower taxes, nobody has found a way to do that. Centre ground is a majority within the grand scheme of things. Voters want to be wooed, the common idea must appease voters but the problem here is that not what people want. For decades politicians have appeased to very worse instincts often presented as the only way to win over the centre-ground. Forget the base that already exists chasing after imagined voters.  

Once a narrative sets in often hard to shake it. The majority fail to educate themselves, history is written by the winners, not losers. Looking at the data Labour lost the retired not the working class. Yet the idea Labour lost the working class or spent all the money took the whole. Weak on crime when record backlog of court cases and lower amount of justice being done. Harsh sentences mean nothing if access to justice is restricted or limited. Education and history are important to help understand how we got here. I was shocked how we got here but once you consider everything it does make sense. My big worry is failing to learn the right lessons and not holding firm. Seeking imagined voters failing to hold on to what base we have. Deeply worried nobody has the right answers. 

A society that is ignorant, lacks the knowledge wonder why voters pick the unfit. Some people take pride in not thinking. I do understand that busy daily lives Westminster is alienly focusing on nonsense bullshit. Hope things can change and the system is repaired. Does require understand everything before coming up with solutions. 

Recovering from Covid pandemic

Won’t be easy creating the require policy programs. Outstanding question remains is the govt up to the task?

Lost decade almost ended with another recession. Underlying economic numbers before the covid were weak. UK has entered recession, 11 years after the last one. Financial markets caused the great recession, pandemic caused this rapid recession. Loss of confidence changed behaviour, economic activity to decline, any official lock down policy started. Lock down policy is largely driven by public opinion, chaotic approach has not helped. Threat of pandemic was highly probable, experts warned about this threat for some time. Department of health even planned for this event. One simple virus was able to caused biggest economic slowdown in modern history. As turns out economic system today is far less resilience, food supply chain showed weakness. Banking sector this time is far more resilience, other parts of the economy are less resilience. Signs of weakness were present before the outbreak. Unlike the last recession, this mainly a health driven crisis. Dozens of potential outcomes, further shocks are still likely.

Recovery won’t start until confidence returns. Breakdown in confidence caused the economy to slow down, driven by covid 19. Investors have caused negative interest rates, signal they want stronger fiscal policy. This not normal downturn, any response needs to be not normal. Labour market started to suffer big job losses, furlough scheme was quickly created. Scheme covered huge parts of the economy, credit is due for creating massive scheme. Overall it could be argued this design is flawed, broad support doing bare minimum. Barely enough to avoid short term problems, turning health crisis into economic nightmare. Furlough scheme is due to come to an end, real challenge starts now. No clear guidance what policy is going to replace it. No details on what sectors are going to get extra support. Big risk is another outbreak happens with no policy plan. Hoping things go back to normal is unlikely to happen, economic restructuring happens during any recession.

Big unknown element during of this, Boris Johnson lack of clear idealogical direction. Danger here is re-fighting old battles, failing to hold Boris to account. Social safety net is less resilience, unemployment use universal credit. Other benefits during that time, became less generous. Huge problems with employment and support allowance, no benefit was spared.

Taken one decade to combine various benefits into one, designed to lower the welfare cost. System is far less generous, weeks until the first payment. Built in sanctions designed to be harsh, punishing people over supporting. Whole thing is designed to cut costs over support people. Roll out is not even completed at this stage, millions of families still to switch. Covid has exposed fiscal stabilisers was short term political choice. Frankly never designed with fairness, or support in mind. Likely we are facing mass unemployment, system never designed to cope with this outcome. Programs designed to help claimants are gone. Point of the system avoiding people from claiming with weeks until first payment.

Labour market quickly turned negative, major job losses. Forced the conservative party create, furlough scheme. Designed to keep people in jobs. Blanket approach to preserve, protect and stem any job losses. Necessary massive blunt but costly program to run for extended time frame. Details can be debated, loads of flaws including inflexible with fixed end date. Rest of Europe already have furlough schemes built into welfare policies. Smarter flexible approaches which allow for part time work, providing retraining and job creation. UK policy makers had none of that existing structure. Any recession is painful, shape or size is determined by policy response. Choices made during any crisis will define governments. Government policy platform was level up, get brexit done and more public service funding. Pandemic has ruined that policy platform.

About to find causes out how serious each promise was. Doing nothing is not an option at all. Big risk is doing nothing could cause major long term damage. Long term investment promises do little for job losses now. Building roads to nowhere, no real response to now. When reality bites government folds, how much do promises matter to Boris?

Creating giant policy problem, quick answers with no draw backs no thing exists. So far reality has destroy various bits of policy due being to difficult. Large majority is not enough when crisis happen, with no clear ideology thinking.

What levers could be used?

No perfect solution here to serious health crisis.

Increasing benefits to be more generous, existing fiscal stabilisers is another option. Changes to universal credit sanctions, don’t forget about ESA. Sick pay payments increasing the length. Decreasing payment waiting times.

Furlough scheme could be extended, modified providing part time work. Extending support for sectors which can’t operate, retail, tourism and service sectors.

Zombie businesses are real concern but government already given them money. Further grants to help, changing business loans to grants.

Above all else this health crisis not an economic one, any packages must be carefully directed. Opportunity to make long term changes, avoiding short term thinking to create a better system. Based on past behaviour, don’t expect any big major policy shifts. Who knows natural party of government earned that title. UK government can be described authoritarian nationalism populist movement. Party of law and order, wants to break the law. Destroy institutions who hold the executive to account. Brexit project goes against every single traditional principle, thatcherism ideas on state aid is ignored. Yet nobody is willing to challenge or even fight for what they believe in. At the moment they have fallen for their very worse instincts.    Incompetence decision making has got us so far, followed by dozens of U turns towards right policy. Covid 19 pandemic has only just started, big choices far policy makers ahead. Just hope they are willing to listen and learn.

Deep concern UK won’t recover from covid, releasing the very worse instincts. Should not rebuild but create a future everybody can support. Much bigger challenges remain unaddressed I don’t have much faith.

Capitalism has been at the heart of the global economic thinking. Liberalism of services, financial markets, goods and labour. No other system has produced results which have massively increased incomes. Various flaws with the current global economy, focusing pure growth and lack of resilience. Just in time supply lines are cheap, efficient but don’t have much resilience. Result cheaper goods, labour becoming cheaper but assets have become inflated. Globalisation has been at heart of economic thinking for decades now. Rapid expansion of financial markets with more traditional trade, combined with services. Light touch on financial market regulation, created risky assets. Opening up local goods to international markets. Geography plays major part in trade, many won’t feel the benefits directly. Trading over any distance requires capital, most businesses are local.

I don’t think destroying capitalism is the answer but reforming it. At the heart of that reform, core concept of resilience. Support for the labour market should be short and longer term focused. Something needs to be done about assets prices. Nations should work together against common threats, covid or climate change have exposed how important that is. We can’t afford to be inward looking. Global food supply chains have been flexible enough during covid but poorer nations have suffered. Resilience should be part of the conversation going forward. All of this requires long term policies, politics should be honest. 

Society as whole needs to ask some pretty difficult questions, may not like the answers. Covid pandemic has crippled my trust in the UK government. I don’t feel safe returning back to normal. Solve the health crisis, bulk of the economic problems disappear. Have big concerns no real long term plan on tackling any problems. Only a desire to blame others. Future is looking rather rubbish. I can only see dark clouds ahead and giant cliff edge caused by brexit getting closer. Maybe this the government we deserve as a society.