Category: Politics

Politics

Easing the cost-of-living crisis

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Easing the cost-of-living crisis

Massive fall in real disposable incomes, started back in 2021 forecasts won’t end until 2024. Rapid rise in inflation off the back of Brexit, covid pandemic helping to increase it. Russia war with Ukraine has helped cause a huge energy supply shock. Shocks like that are normally deflationary, market failure has helped make this shock worse. Last decade has seen weak wage growth, barely at same levels last seen in 2008. Poorest have suffered the most over the last decade, won’t be changed any time soon. Reforms designed to help kick start wage growth have stalled or failed to appear. Growth has been slower compared to before Brexit, economy is smaller compared to what it would be. Weak fiscal stabilizers forced monetary policy to act and cause a recession. 

  1. Increase the base level of all benefits
  2. Increase benefits in line with inflation and above it
  3. Scrapping 2 child limit on tax credits
  4. Scrapping the bedroom tax
  5. Change the UC taper rate
  6. Scrapping age rules on housing benefits / increase to match rents
  7. Allow local councils to pay housing benefits directly to landlords
  8. No delay on first UC payments
  9. Cash payments for energy bills
  10. Writing off any legacy debts
  11. Targeted support for food bank users
  12. Expansion of social tariffs

Well known that best way to solve poverty is more money.  Longer term solutions are required like insulation program funded by grants. UK housing stock leaky, having some of lowest energy efficiency in Europe. Reforming the rules making housing stock healthier, would help with people’s health overall. 12 points listed above is undoing some of the government flagships reforms to welfare. Longer term reforms to energy market to include more resilience against price shocks.

Giant fall in disposable incomes something not seen for decades. Normally only see disposable fall that much during a recession, very real worry about stagflation. Boris and Rishi have decided for one off cash payment. Won’t be enough to cover the fall in disposable incomes but better than nothing. Half measure that already too late.

Politics

Morality is not black and white

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Morality is colourful never just black and white. Politics is about priorities; each choice leads to different outcomes. Choices are talked about in terms of being progressive or regressive. Push and pull factor which means certain priorities viewed as important.  Can pull certain voters with policy or push them away. Example 2 child tax credit limits, pulls voters who view welfare spending as a concern. Policy makes little to no sense, don’t really save that much money and cause great harm. Possible ends up costing more money with later state intervention.

Sometimes voters can support things that are against their own self-interest. Family of four may support the policy even if they get tax credits. Family of four could not support it but won’t vote, view other things as important.  Actions can have very limited consequences if voters don’t notice or view it as important. National insurance for example has increased at the same time income tax has declined. Ignorance plays a part, paying more taxes in general yet the message is otherwise. Does not help when journalists fail to inform or explain what happening.

We treat politics sometimes like a football team, criticism is awful must always support the team. SNP higher education policy on tuition fees has seen reduction in number of poorer students at university. More middle-class students going to university compare to poorer ones. As it turns out most voters who better off vote more compared to ones who don’t. One policy does not match the message or aims but suits the SNP nicely because that big lump of voters who are happy.

Which should get people asking the question what other polices don’t match the reality. Instead, the question is asked is SNP not a progressive party?

Over asking the question why was this outcome picked over the others that help poorer students more. Education policy been focused for very long time on university and ignored other elements. Graduate dominate political parties don’t have a clue what none graduates want. Tuition fees are basically future tax on graduates for middle class families. Helping fund the system for poorer students. Scrapping it means lower tax rates for graduates, less poorer students at uni. SNP has made that choice, again, comes down to priorities.  What is better helping 1/3 or 3/4 of students. Arguments is this more progressive or regressive don’t matter. What matters is are willing to take unpopular choices and understand how run the nation. What matters is why are certain choices being made. What matters is understanding the outcome of each choice. What matters is informing people about the choices on offer.

*Note the examples I used here could apply to any political party. I get the feeling I have misused morality.

Journal, Politics

Ukraine failure of foreign policy and diplomacy

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Ukraine failure of foreign policy and diplomacy

Modern world has created 24/7 news cycle, consumed by one thing. Often forget the smaller events, never reported due lacking the click power. Short snappy stories with so much detail lost, context missing and never explained. Things move quickly, interest is lost just fast any story turns up. Single big event has dozens of small events feeding into it. Russia newest invasion of Ukraine is no different. No formal notice given but last 8 years Russia been at war with Ukraine. No winners here just many losers in European foreign policy terms. Slow drift has become a series of major policy changes over night. History behind Ukraine is important, UK former ambassador to Ukraine wrote an article covering it. Missing the link for now.

I hold a deep concern over everybody escalating consequences are going to be huge. Nobody been honest about the costs involved here, everybody is gambling away. Small eastern European states announcement they want to join EU/NATO, some declaring sooner the better. Finland been talking about; Russian has threatened it along with Sweden. EU directly allowing the finance of weapon purchases. Countless nations increasing defense spending. Germany dropping foreign policy platforms it held for over 30 years. Turkey U turning on banning Russian ships. Been so many more shifts in policy hard to keep track. European geopolitics is changing at rapid pace. Everybody asking questions but very few easy answers on offer.

EU has tried to create single foreign platform, different priorities between east and west made that complicated. Dismissed the concerns of Eastern Europe, paranoid about Russia.  Europe is now waking up to the idea has to defend, eastern European states. Are we really ready for nuclear war over Estonia? Sanctions alone failed to stop Russia, needs stronger deterrence. Stationing troops closer to Russian border, Russia sees that as further escalation. Another escalation on top growing European influence due trade gravity. Every action or statement carries a big risk, things could get worse before things improve.

Takes time before any impact is felt, human misery caused by displacement or economic hit that going to happen. Images already of people trapped at Polish border, racist guards blocking people crossing. Foreign students trapped between borders requiring evacuations. Europe could help but again Russians see any logistics as trojan horse. India wants the students back but my lack the capacity to do it. Need cooperation between various nations, finding staff to fly people back. We already seen nations forget about people in war zones or when states fail. Afghanistan has British nationals with families trapped outside the borders or trapped inside. No plan on deal with countless tragedies, reduced cooperation when we need more. For every person killed that one family now grieving, every tank destroyed that group of families crying over loved ones.

Nobody wins off the back of human suffering, we all lost due this war. European foreign policy has been slow to consider what Russia would think. Fault is shared across Europe, not single action or act to blame but long series of events. Russia own actions have added fuel to the fire, directly attacking or threatening, state sponsored murder. What the strategy was it has failed and produced an outcome nobody wanted. Human suffering is huge going to cause shockwaves for whole of Europe. Credit to the EU crafted a refugee policy within days everybody agreeing to it.UK however still holding firm no visa no entry and hostile towards anybody who not rich. UK failure to deal with growing Russian influence in British politics is shocking. Sadly, British politics has always been about money, buying you whatever influence no questions asked. Foster a society around attacking institutions refused to repair or defend them. UK legal system bending to protect money laundering, white collar crime is viewed as naughty but less serious. Little to no resources spent on enforcement, underinvestment is coming back to bite us. British state is underfunded, legal system is open to abuse. Everybody has opened themselves up to foreign actors, Cyprus is hot bed of Russian money too.

Only plan appears to be escalation, remains unclear what de-escalation would look like. West has some idea what Putin wants but unclear if Ukrainians would be happy with it. Russia wants real leverage, freezing of the current status quo. What that would look like remains unclear, does look like regime change at the moment. Fresh water ports are important to the Russian black sea fleet.

Britain has a chance to show it still great global player in the world. Boris Johnson is stuck, domestic toxic and weak during any crisis. Leadership rivals are attacking him on defence spending. Ranks of the Tory party are hardening against Russia and demanding more must be done. Close personal links to Russia not helpful, leave campaign close ties are painful. Russia western allies are thin on the ground, seeking to distance themselves. Russian influencers who caused so much pain and damage, trying to weaken Europe, repeat the same lines.

Regional stability is precious must be protected at all costs, defending law and order is necessary. Institutions we took for granted need reform, rebuilding. Things can never go back to normal, relationship with Russia is forever changed. Make no mistake things are about to get whole lot worse before anything improves on the ground. Cool heads must prevail otherwise things could get much worse and spiral out of control. Whole host of outcomes which come with various costs and risks. Putin has gambled, Europe strategy around eastern Europe is dead. Only thing that is certain, old order is ripped apart. We must rebuild, reforge and cooperation with Russia. We can’t risk peace in eastern Europe, other nations look unstable already. In the real-world things are never black and white. Only good thing that comes out of this, my desire to visit Ukraine. Learnt enough that looks like it would be a great trip away. I hope that I get a chance to visit it.

European peace is at stake, tinder box in eastern Europe right now. Just hope no cultural or historical items are destroyed by this war.

Update

West does not want military action, sad truth not willing to risk war with Russia. No fly zone would be an act of war, direct action against Russia military. Not even sure it would have the desired outcome, ending the war. We knew about this months ago yet failed to plan. Already the threat of nuclear weapons moving to Belarus. Which creates bit of problem for Eastern European states arming Ukraine. GRU have long history of operations against foreign nations, 2014 Czech Republic. Sending military shipments starts to become dangerous operation. Unlikely have any real impact being so late in day. Reaction so far from the west is not close to appeasement. How we got here weak enforcement and procedures around Russia money. Been reactive to Russia over proactive it starting to show. Borders of Europe faces very big humanitarian crisis, unclear how long it going to last. Europe has acted quite fast about coping with inflows from Ukraine. More needs to be done, more resources not just food and water.

Worse is yet to come and hardest part.

Journal, Politics

Russia invasion of Ukraine

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Russia invasion of Ukraine

Russia has attacked and invaded Ukraine again, 8 years ago it took Crimea, 4 years later started arming rebels in Donbass.  Everybody knew this day was coming, warned about it but West largely did nothing. Warm words of support but lacks the desire to defend Ukraine. Nothing short of Western troops would stop Putin now.  Sanctions that hurt Russia but cause pain in the west is off the cards. Just bystanders watching Russia declare war against Ukraine. Appears Putin does not desire another frozen conflict but wants puppet state of Ukraine. Remains unclear how far he wants to go. Frozen conflicts caused by Russia in Georgia, Moldova, trouble is coming back to Bosnia. State of emergency in Moldova, Lithuania, others are watching in horror. Threat to none NATO members is real, refugees are likely cross borders to escape.  Sweden and Finland both are talking about NATO membership. NATO summit is due tomorrow, but nations are talking. I do anything to avoid X but I won’t do that is not good enough.

Putin has priced in the cost of sanctions; military action is only option left. No fly zone over Ukraine created by NATO would be a start. I do fear only way to forward is troops to Ukraine.

Journal, Labour, Politics

What does polling tell us about next election?

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What does polling tell us about next election?

The answer is not much but does give an idea of the direction. Support declines during this period of time and increasing again when any election happens. However not always certain who going to get that increase in support. Polling is model based on current public opinion, snapshot showing the direction of travel. Any model is subject to margin of error, most of the time you land in the middle. Don’t know is high without any election in sight, more Tory leaning voters who don’t know about 20%. Hyper focus of any election causes people to decide. 

The most likely outcome of next general election, Tory majority smaller than 80. Boris is the glue holding together the Tory majority, one of the reasons behind the decline. Past biases have been reforged; most voters don’t blame Boris but the party. Danger is the feeling loss, sense of grief getting connected to the party after covid.  Toxic party brand coming back would be hard to shake off. Strength of Boris is slowly becoming a weakness, unpopular that now baked in. New Tory voters look similar to the old, any support looks conditional on Boris leadership. Story and message for the Tories exists and voters have general idea what they stand for. Recent events have made some question that belief in Boris. Not willing to abandon the party just yet, patience is draining away. Negative feelings around Boris are starting to settle in. Now just as unpopular as Corbyn was during 2018. No answers yet if that matters. 

Any Labour polling leads mask a complicated picture. Don’t know make any margin of error way bigger than normal. When almost 1/4 of any sample group don’t know and top of swing voters. Starts to get difficult how to produce any polling without wild errors at play. Most voters have negative view of Labour party brand, don’t think they could run things any better. They are clueless about Keir, most not having any opinion on him. Covid is not normal times at all, most voters form some view on leaders of a party within months. Last time this happened was with David Cameron, quickly made himself known during 2007/2008. Labour been flooding the airwaves with policy just nobody is listening. Danger here is without any clear message, voters create that message themselves. Left has tried many times the same message, never working. Bit of humble pie is required here, learning from what the Tories do right and Labour does badly. Voters don’t like insults towards the party they supported, not going to win people over calling them Satan. Lack of positive message about last decade makes it sound like labour failure not winning power. Badly needs an answer to what happened and the party wants moving forward. 

Loads can change but polling with the trend is hinting towards smaller Tory majority. Victory on the back what message however is anybody guess. Unlikely outcomes of hung parliament or Labour collation don’t seem realistic. Labour needs a massive recovery in England, Wales and Scotland. Danger of further decline happening, pain could be far from over yet. Sense of complacency after so much poor performance worries me. Leaning towards the party not improving at all. Major recovery is required to get close, no real evidence that is happening yet.  I don’t think the decline is over yet in certain places or seats. Long trend of decline can be traced back to the 70s. Of course, nothing is certain, politics can be volatile. 

Maybe Labour finds a voice at long last, negative feelings are seal the fate of Boris. Could end up with Labour prime minster after so long. I don’t think covid crisis is going way anytime soon, my gut feeling is voters give Boris one more shot at sorting things out. Tories have been able to reinvent party, even after being in charge for so long. 

So polling hints at smaller Tory majority and long road to recovery for Labour. 

Journal, Politics

Channel crossings death by design

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Channel crossings death by design

Thousands of people every year cross the channel, claims hundreds of lives each year.  We only care once images appear on TV screens of boats not the dead bodies. United Kingdom is outraged at people seeking a new home. The liberal’s failure to challenge dehumanising language is leaving us with blood in the water. Various policy areas, which same thing has been repeated in. Allowed are opponents to frame the debate and control the language. Common ground can be found but we can’t take purity at all cost approach. That means learning from defeat and what any opponents do well. Even from the so-called liberal defenders given little pushback. Only appear to care when it comes to internal power struggles and failing to counter the message.

Deaths do not matter just ‘illegal migration’ more ‘asylum seekers’ not human after all. Falling into this trap means we repeat the same mistakes and nothing gets better. General public are not monsters who hate everything. Drawbridge means that taking this risky unsafe route is only option left. If you want to stop unsafe crossings or reduce deaths need to provide safe routes and make it easier. Cooperation is required and some, humble pie on this British created problem. Tougher approach just leaves us with blood in the water.  These people are doing nothing illegal, want to make the UK their new home. Numbers coming to the UK are tiny, rest of Europe takes in way more people.

We frankly do not deserve them and should be ashamed of how we treat people. Asylum system places limits on what can do and often takes years to complete with perilous little support. I doubt people would enjoy having the same treatment applied to them. And climate change is likely to see way more people being pulled towards us.  Not a single successful nation in the world that does not have migration towards it. Best resource we can export is people. I never been more ashamed to be British than now.

Loads of things we can do but we refuse have decided to blame others. Instead of cooperation decided to demand and give nothing in return. Suits us more for purely political reasons to allow it to carry on. Current channel crossings are death by design and establishment don’t care. Yearly outrage yet no real desire to change policy.

Journal, Politics

What does UK polling tell us?

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What does UK polling tell us?

Polling offers you a brief snapshot, how do people feel about politics. The average British voter keeps politics away from daily life until needs to do something about it. A general rule of thumb during any general election voters minds are focused. Support starts to drift until the next cycle, people can’t remember who they supported last time. Polling offers you a brief snapshot of how people feel. The margin of error must be kept in mind but can give you a sense of direction. Noise in polling comes down to the famous don’t know.

What does the current snapshot tell you? Almost one 1/3 of voters don’t have any views on Keir Starmer. Some negative feelings from the core Tory base, Labour voters have positive feelings. The average person thinks Labour as a brand can’t lead but thinks the man in a suit can some don’t have any views of him. Safe to say the pandemic has delayed voters taking notice. During any crisis people normally give govt full support, again no poltics please we’re british. 

Compare to other opposition leaders at the same time, only David Cameron has similar numbers. Cameron held his cards close to his chest, voters listened to him during the 2008 crisis and his path to number 10 is history. During any crisis need to repeat the same message and get into voters minds. Not enough to say X party is shit, need your own story and message. Need to respond to any crisis, not policy firesale. Labour has made about 200+ policies but not a clear idea or message.

Polling is hinting towards a reduced majority and risk of hung parliament. Tories being biggest party still and Labour not being close to forming a govt alone. The margin of error means most likely looking at a smaller majority. Not certain but still possible increased majority is possible. The ground needed to be retaken is huge and need swing Tory but former Labour / lib dem voters.

Lots of work to do and hard choices need to be made. Loads of seats that last had a Labour MP back in 2001 or 2005 some further back.

Journal, Politics

No politics please we’re British

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The British public doesn’t pay any real attention to daily politics. Westminster in return does not pay any real attention to the public. Makes me think about this quote.

We are what we eat or you are what you eat

A very brief period of courting with various suitors seeking attention. One night stand happens, the result of the general election is called we forget. Don’t bother to inform ourselves, we have more knowledge about the next kettle good compared to political choices ahead. People go back to their daily lives ignoring politics until something happens that barely registering. To make matters worse even the leaders are ignorant of how governance works. Failing to understand or know that does not work like a car. Can pull the lever all you want but things don’t suddenly happen. Even the political class has no clue how things work or run. 

Both sides not understanding each other, each side thinking the worse about the other. High levels of ignorance and mistrust, that has been present for decades. Important to understand that last point, current feelings are nothing new just loyalty has declined. Agreement between everybody is rather messy. Most people don’t have a fixed ideology viewpoint, some lean but most are flexible. Of course, sometimes voters do want conflicting things. A good example is higher spending lower taxes, nobody has found a way to do that. Centre ground is a majority within the grand scheme of things. Voters want to be wooed, the common idea must appease voters but the problem here is that not what people want. For decades politicians have appeased to very worse instincts often presented as the only way to win over the centre-ground. Forget the base that already exists chasing after imagined voters.  

Once a narrative sets in often hard to shake it. The majority fail to educate themselves, history is written by the winners, not losers. Looking at the data Labour lost the retired not the working class. Yet the idea Labour lost the working class or spent all the money took the whole. Weak on crime when record backlog of court cases and lower amount of justice being done. Harsh sentences mean nothing if access to justice is restricted or limited. Education and history are important to help understand how we got here. I was shocked how we got here but once you consider everything it does make sense. My big worry is failing to learn the right lessons and not holding firm. Seeking imagined voters failing to hold on to what base we have. Deeply worried nobody has the right answers. 

A society that is ignorant, lacks the knowledge wonder why voters pick the unfit. Some people take pride in not thinking. I do understand that busy daily lives Westminster is alienly focusing on nonsense bullshit. Hope things can change and the system is repaired. Does require understand everything before coming up with solutions. 

Journal, Labour, Politics

Local elections 2021 – No easy answers

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Local elections 2021 – No easy answers

The election happens people are quick to draw rapid conclusions, failing to grasp what happened. The dust has barely settled, X was the problem only if we did this instead. Same old faces turn up on TV to settle old scores. The pattern repeats nobody learns anything further decline happens. Worse still wrong lessons are learnt causing even more damage. Until somebody comes along rebuilds the party because they sort of understand the current map/rules. Tories have been far more successful at doing that. Long term realignment of British politics, sudden seat losses mask slow changes. With the slow steady decline in party loyalty, voters want to shop around now. Signs have been in front of us for decades at this point.

Rules of politics matter deeply at the moment.

Beware of lower turn out clouding things. On average turn out could be 1/4 of GE turnout. Ward data on who could live in that area is now almost one decade out of date. Meaning who could be voting could be deeply different to who you think is. Loads of data that is missing needs to be pieced together. What going on won’t be clear for some time. 

The average voter does not care about politics or even follow it. Finding it hard to name people or even remember how they voted. It complicated puzzle working out how and why people voted for the X party. Sad but true modern politics is full of contradictions, no pundit understands it even social scientists find it difficult to read.

Any big crisis the public pile behind the incumbent government of the day. Giving them the benefit of the doubt to fix things. Global pandemic means voters settle for the known over the unknown. Why rock the boat when nobody could see it coming. Normal rules are suspended until things are sorted. Difficult for any opposition party to get any air time at the best of times. Need laser-like focus and message that does not attack the govt outright.

Pandemic makes campaigning difficult, harder to do all the normal things. 

Labour’s uneasy choice

Hard to draw any real lessons from the current map when the above is so impactful. The obvious point is Labour is facing challenges from all sides. Results show the party losing to the greens/lib dems and Tories. Labour did however make some gains but the picture is mixed. Even on lower turn out recovery has started.  The gap is closing between the main parties but still dangers ahead. New management is largely unknown, the brand is damaged still. Slowly the recovery is happening with voters but a leader needs to be visible. Invisible lawyer man in the suit vibe won’t win any elections or inspire the membership. Does not help to have dozens of ideas or a complete detailed plan. Need something that ties it all together, better story compared to the other side. Long term trend has been against labour in many areas. Sometimes it not about Labour at all. No matter what we try voters did not want to listen. Tories just did better and voters like it more. 

Mountain we face has never been any clearer, to win, we must build a new coalition of voters. Expanding from the current base to former strongholds, grabbing potential ones too. Party must be competitive in existing marginal seats and hold what we got. That means understanding why voters go Tory and how to appeal to a much larger group who could lean Labour. The danger here this not the floor, support can go much lower. Not only that means getting better at playing the game of politics. To do that we must understand the current base and not be embarrassed by it. Above all else, we need to chase voters who could vote for us. That means understanding current voters, not the group we imagined are Labour voters. Can’t afford to marginalise ‘the left’, otherwise, we risk losing ground to the greens and lib dems. Party brand should be seen as safe and none threatening to people who will never vote for us. A difficult balancing act between radical change so many want and conservation instincts others have.  The last big key sticking point is lack of trust. That not going to be easy to address without being realistic. A shopping list of ideas or heavily detailed policy won’t cut it, needs to be a simple package.

A tory party you think we face is not the party we face. Uncomfortable truth no magic bullet exists, many things need to change. We need to learn from our opponents not mock them or say we better than the Tories. Saying the party people voted for is evil won’t get you very far at all. Party loyalty is disappearing at a rapid rate and that message does nothing now. Attacking pork-barrel politics won’t stick but give voters a reason to vote for them. Running on the same old message but the Tories does not cut it. The simple reality is party loyalty at an all-time low, voters shop around. Repeating the time old classic means we don’t really have a clue what to say. Fighting old battles and expecting to face the same opponent. 4 different flavours of the Tory party have beaten us each one with a different set of priorities. The most recent one running as the challenger, but being the incumbent. The only bit of good news here is Brexit is slowly disappearing from the public mind. Divides that caused it to remain wide open.

Tory party story is because of Brexit, more police, nurses and green policies are possible. We need a story that suits us to counter this idea. Gone are the days of Cameron declaring no green crap.  Make no mistake this opponent is way harder to beat, promising higher spending and taxes. Sharp difference from what Cameron promised. You may disagree but the average voter supported it with open arms. They want a good job, a nice house and to be rich. Attacking the rich blindly is attacking voters dreams. Makes no sense too and the appeal is too narrow. Labour offer to voters is a big massive collection of ideas with a green strategy at the heart. The problem is a giant shopping list of priorities, which are difficult to explain together. Needs to be easy to understand clear and focused package.

Greens issues, access to justice and sick pay

I would look at green issues, access to justice and sick pay. The story is needed that pulls all three together.  Left needs more substance that voters care about, right needs more substance that understands the party core vote. Both sides are trying to settle old scores and don’t want to face the music. Tories have moved we have been standing still against 2010s Tories. Certain bits of a policy platform needs to change to suit this reality. Less a shopping list of unachievable goals in the first term. A refined plan that matches our own voter’s priorities and any potential lean labour voters. Elements that are ripe ground like sick pay.  Reforming and scrapping UC party needs to pick one. More muddling through won’t work, we tried that. Not how you build trust with voters who can smell the bullshit from miles away. The strategy of more of the same has failed. Deeply concerned all sides have ideas but making some serious miscalculation who supports the party or could do. Failure to pick shows the deep unease with the choice we face. After some imagined group of voters ignoring everybody else. Trying not to offend anybody but pissing off everybody. Misunderstanding the current voter and chasing some imagined group who don’t exist. Not exactly been a recipe for success so far. 

I do feel Keir should hold his nerve, after these disappointing results. I will give the benefit of the doubt here because of the covid pandemic. Suspension of politics of normal has not helped the party at all. In the coming weeks, things should start returning to normal. The direction of travel should be outlined and made clear. Before covid the strategy focusing on green issues with every policy linked to it. Would appear the problem is the lack of focus and discipline in how to present it. Wide range of goals time to refine it and make it suit now. Don’t want to be hostage to fortune. Flexibility and resilience are needed when come to fighting the Tories. The labour party future depends on us learning the right lessons, understanding the base we have. Finding the lean labour voters who vote Tory, coming with something for them. 

Signs Keir wants former red wall voters but so far no serious offer has been made to anybody. Critics have failed to do the same. To make any serious policy platform need to have a clear understanding of our own voting base and who could join that coalition. Do we focus on the liberal young urban city voter base and cement it or expand to include former red wall voters. Many members disappointed in Keir want the former. Members like me want the latter but Boris has claimed that ground. Does mean understanding, listening to current voters and people who could vote for us. Could be the only way forward for the party. To do that we need to change priorities find a message that suits both. No party has the god-given right to exist and can be replaced. Both sides of the party appear to think the current base has no other place to go. The danger we repeat the same mistakes, chasing imagined group who don’t exist and alienation of people who do vote for us.

Invisible front man magic trick won’t save the party or love bombing voters on green issues. Stronger media presentation is required, giving clear short answers. People should know the face, the rest of the party follows the line. Not easy to do given the rules of the game and conditions. All sides of the party need to unite together, compromise is required. Many members were willing to give Corbyn the benefit of the doubt after series of failures. The same should be given to Keir but we can’t look back repeat the same failed lines. Knives out for Keir at the first sign of trouble won’t do us any good. Changing leaders won’t magically fix everything. Ignoring the conditions laying the blame just on the leadership won’t work.

After Covid, I want a focus on green issues, access to justice and sick pay. Take a bit of policy platform from the right and left on each one. Green issues focus should be on better roads, buses. Ideas like the right to repair, reuse and recycle too. Justice only works if people have access to it. Should be something a former lawyer can feel comfortable talking about. The last point hits that spot the British public sense of fairness. Should help to inspire the base once more which we need to win. More importantly all of the above is something Labour voters can support. 

Journal, Politics, Thoughts

Climate change from carbon to the metal-based economy

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Climate change from carbon to the metal-based economy.

Reducing consumption is missing from the current conversation. Need to deal with current waste, recycling and reuse only gets you so far. Shifting towards making the supply chains more circle recycle and reuse focused. A finite number of resources, need to be efficient, recycle and reuse. The focus so far has been on replacing and ignore the current waste problem. The challenge ahead is massive, need to be more efficient in everything we do. Not only that but learn to recycle and reuse way more. The result is changing how we view the world around us.

Switching to a less carbon-based economy requires metal. Extracting metal is very energy-intense, processing and manufacturing cause environmental damage. Even a minor increase in demand for metals causes huge amounts of damage. An idea we can switch without consequences is nonsense. Old electrical goods are difficult to recycle. Need to redesign the manufacturing process making things easier to recycle and reprocess. Metals can be reprocessed but certain products like batteries waste resources.

Phone companies have started to avoid shipping chargers with phones to lower e-waste. This is rather backwards when they release new models every couple of months. The focus needs to be on sending old phones back, less new phones with a much longer shelf life. Battery recycling research remains rather new, impossible at the moment to get the materials back. The amount of e-waste like phones is a huge problem, nothing like the plastic problem. Elephant in the room is how the recycling industry currently works. Shipping waste around the world, sometimes it can’t even be processed.

Electric cars alone won’t save us, at some point behaviours need to change. In my own opinion, we can increase the quality of everybody life and be environmentally friendly. Need to be honest about the changes needed and the cost of doing nothing. So far nobody wants to address the consumption element. Dreaming of technology saving us from past problems and fixing future issues.

What needs to happen?

Reduce consumption

Recycle more

Reuse materials

Be more efficient

Reshaping how the world works, to stop the climate from restructuring to a new normal. Just moving from carbon to metal would be a giant mistake. Storing up future problems, never addressing the obvious solution. Nobody wants to even touch it and think we can carry on as normal. Sounds a lot like Covid, people thinking we can go back. Failing to see how we got here.