Boris Johnson no confidence no power

Boris Johnson has won a vote of no confidence, 211 to 148. End of Johnson has started, formal way of removing him is over for now. Rule changes can happen that allow him to be removed from office sooner over later. Boris has no shame so won’t resign; political pressure alone won’t work. Things could get rather ruthless and dirty soon enough depends how savvy Boris is. Big danger for Boris is his own actions cause his downfall.

Opponents of Boris have yet to unite together but his own actions could do that. Come down to hard on the rebels could start making powerful enemies. Unorganised rebels caused by an organic dislike of Boris could get organised. Self-made mistakes over last 6 months have compounded together into a perfect storm. Angered the party into action caused the largest rebellion faced by the leadership. MPs knew what Boris was like they took a gamble for somebody unfit to become prime minster.

What happens now is start of a shadow leadership fight.  By elections are coming up soon could become a new flash point. Commons select committee on standards report on Boris could cause further pain for him. Unable to fix the recommendations could cause further pain.

Queen speech was rather empty, not many bills on the agenda. Boris has done rather little with that 80-seat majority. Lack of direction has caused things to drift along. Party was united to stop Corbyn and do Brexit. Now it plans to undo Brexit and Corbyn is long gone. Lack of answers on offer for things like cost-of-living crisis.

Boris like a wounded stag, got away yet again but final blow is not far away. Individual hunters want him but don’t want to work together just yet. One week a long time in politics. Events could pick up pace quickly with end being sudden.

Reign of Boris the fool needs to end, but I fear other fools await us. Nightmare won’t end any time soon until the political power of baby boomers is broken.

Ukraine failure of foreign policy and diplomacy

Modern world has created 24/7 news cycle, consumed by one thing. Often forget the smaller events, never reported due lacking the click power. Short snappy stories with so much detail lost, context missing and never explained. Things move quickly, interest is lost just fast any story turns up. Single big event has dozens of small events feeding into it. Russia newest invasion of Ukraine is no different. No formal notice given but last 8 years Russia been at war with Ukraine. No winners here just many losers in European foreign policy terms. Slow drift has become a series of major policy changes over night. History behind Ukraine is important, UK former ambassador to Ukraine wrote an article covering it. Missing the link for now.

I hold a deep concern over everybody escalating consequences are going to be huge. Nobody been honest about the costs involved here, everybody is gambling away. Small eastern European states announcement they want to join EU/NATO, some declaring sooner the better. Finland been talking about; Russian has threatened it along with Sweden. EU directly allowing the finance of weapon purchases. Countless nations increasing defense spending. Germany dropping foreign policy platforms it held for over 30 years. Turkey U turning on banning Russian ships. Been so many more shifts in policy hard to keep track. European geopolitics is changing at rapid pace. Everybody asking questions but very few easy answers on offer.

EU has tried to create single foreign platform, different priorities between east and west made that complicated. Dismissed the concerns of Eastern Europe, paranoid about Russia.  Europe is now waking up to the idea has to defend, eastern European states. Are we really ready for nuclear war over Estonia? Sanctions alone failed to stop Russia, needs stronger deterrence. Stationing troops closer to Russian border, Russia sees that as further escalation. Another escalation on top growing European influence due trade gravity. Every action or statement carries a big risk, things could get worse before things improve.

Takes time before any impact is felt, human misery caused by displacement or economic hit that going to happen. Images already of people trapped at Polish border, racist guards blocking people crossing. Foreign students trapped between borders requiring evacuations. Europe could help but again Russians see any logistics as trojan horse. India wants the students back but my lack the capacity to do it. Need cooperation between various nations, finding staff to fly people back. We already seen nations forget about people in war zones or when states fail. Afghanistan has British nationals with families trapped outside the borders or trapped inside. No plan on deal with countless tragedies, reduced cooperation when we need more. For every person killed that one family now grieving, every tank destroyed that group of families crying over loved ones.

Nobody wins off the back of human suffering, we all lost due this war. European foreign policy has been slow to consider what Russia would think. Fault is shared across Europe, not single action or act to blame but long series of events. Russia own actions have added fuel to the fire, directly attacking or threatening, state sponsored murder. What the strategy was it has failed and produced an outcome nobody wanted. Human suffering is huge going to cause shockwaves for whole of Europe. Credit to the EU crafted a refugee policy within days everybody agreeing to it.UK however still holding firm no visa no entry and hostile towards anybody who not rich. UK failure to deal with growing Russian influence in British politics is shocking. Sadly, British politics has always been about money, buying you whatever influence no questions asked. Foster a society around attacking institutions refused to repair or defend them. UK legal system bending to protect money laundering, white collar crime is viewed as naughty but less serious. Little to no resources spent on enforcement, underinvestment is coming back to bite us. British state is underfunded, legal system is open to abuse. Everybody has opened themselves up to foreign actors, Cyprus is hot bed of Russian money too.

Only plan appears to be escalation, remains unclear what de-escalation would look like. West has some idea what Putin wants but unclear if Ukrainians would be happy with it. Russia wants real leverage, freezing of the current status quo. What that would look like remains unclear, does look like regime change at the moment. Fresh water ports are important to the Russian black sea fleet.

Britain has a chance to show it still great global player in the world. Boris Johnson is stuck, domestic toxic and weak during any crisis. Leadership rivals are attacking him on defence spending. Ranks of the Tory party are hardening against Russia and demanding more must be done. Close personal links to Russia not helpful, leave campaign close ties are painful. Russia western allies are thin on the ground, seeking to distance themselves. Russian influencers who caused so much pain and damage, trying to weaken Europe, repeat the same lines.

Regional stability is precious must be protected at all costs, defending law and order is necessary. Institutions we took for granted need reform, rebuilding. Things can never go back to normal, relationship with Russia is forever changed. Make no mistake things are about to get whole lot worse before anything improves on the ground. Cool heads must prevail otherwise things could get much worse and spiral out of control. Whole host of outcomes which come with various costs and risks. Putin has gambled, Europe strategy around eastern Europe is dead. Only thing that is certain, old order is ripped apart. We must rebuild, reforge and cooperation with Russia. We can’t risk peace in eastern Europe, other nations look unstable already. In the real-world things are never black and white. Only good thing that comes out of this, my desire to visit Ukraine. Learnt enough that looks like it would be a great trip away. I hope that I get a chance to visit it.

European peace is at stake, tinder box in eastern Europe right now. Just hope no cultural or historical items are destroyed by this war.

Update

West does not want military action, sad truth not willing to risk war with Russia. No fly zone would be an act of war, direct action against Russia military. Not even sure it would have the desired outcome, ending the war. We knew about this months ago yet failed to plan. Already the threat of nuclear weapons moving to Belarus. Which creates bit of problem for Eastern European states arming Ukraine. GRU have long history of operations against foreign nations, 2014 Czech Republic. Sending military shipments starts to become dangerous operation. Unlikely have any real impact being so late in day. Reaction so far from the west is not close to appeasement. How we got here weak enforcement and procedures around Russia money. Been reactive to Russia over proactive it starting to show. Borders of Europe faces very big humanitarian crisis, unclear how long it going to last. Europe has acted quite fast about coping with inflows from Ukraine. More needs to be done, more resources not just food and water.

Worse is yet to come and hardest part.

Russia invasion of Ukraine

Russia has attacked and invaded Ukraine again, 8 years ago it took Crimea, 4 years later started arming rebels in Donbass.  Everybody knew this day was coming, warned about it but West largely did nothing. Warm words of support but lacks the desire to defend Ukraine. Nothing short of Western troops would stop Putin now.  Sanctions that hurt Russia but cause pain in the west is off the cards. Just bystanders watching Russia declare war against Ukraine. Appears Putin does not desire another frozen conflict but wants puppet state of Ukraine. Remains unclear how far he wants to go. Frozen conflicts caused by Russia in Georgia, Moldova, trouble is coming back to Bosnia. State of emergency in Moldova, Lithuania, others are watching in horror. Threat to none NATO members is real, refugees are likely cross borders to escape.  Sweden and Finland both are talking about NATO membership. NATO summit is due tomorrow, but nations are talking. I do anything to avoid X but I won’t do that is not good enough.

Putin has priced in the cost of sanctions; military action is only option left. No fly zone over Ukraine created by NATO would be a start. I do fear only way to forward is troops to Ukraine.

Channel crossings death by design

Thousands of people every year cross the channel, claims hundreds of lives each year.  We only care once images appear on TV screens of boats not the dead bodies. United Kingdom is outraged at people seeking a new home. The liberal’s failure to challenge dehumanising language is leaving us with blood in the water. Various policy areas, which same thing has been repeated in. Allowed are opponents to frame the debate and control the language. Common ground can be found but we can’t take purity at all cost approach. That means learning from defeat and what any opponents do well. Even from the so-called liberal defenders given little pushback. Only appear to care when it comes to internal power struggles and failing to counter the message.

Deaths do not matter just ‘illegal migration’ more ‘asylum seekers’ not human after all. Falling into this trap means we repeat the same mistakes and nothing gets better. General public are not monsters who hate everything. Drawbridge means that taking this risky unsafe route is only option left. If you want to stop unsafe crossings or reduce deaths need to provide safe routes and make it easier. Cooperation is required and some, humble pie on this British created problem. Tougher approach just leaves us with blood in the water.  These people are doing nothing illegal, want to make the UK their new home. Numbers coming to the UK are tiny, rest of Europe takes in way more people.

We frankly do not deserve them and should be ashamed of how we treat people. Asylum system places limits on what can do and often takes years to complete with perilous little support. I doubt people would enjoy having the same treatment applied to them. And climate change is likely to see way more people being pulled towards us.  Not a single successful nation in the world that does not have migration towards it. Best resource we can export is people. I never been more ashamed to be British than now.

Loads of things we can do but we refuse have decided to blame others. Instead of cooperation decided to demand and give nothing in return. Suits us more for purely political reasons to allow it to carry on. Current channel crossings are death by design and establishment don’t care. Yearly outrage yet no real desire to change policy.

What does UK polling tell us?

Polling offers you a brief snapshot, how do people feel about politics. The average British voter keeps politics away from daily life until needs to do something about it. A general rule of thumb during any general election voters minds are focused. Support starts to drift until the next cycle, people can’t remember who they supported last time. Polling offers you a brief snapshot of how people feel. The margin of error must be kept in mind but can give you a sense of direction. Noise in polling comes down to the famous don’t know.

What does the current snapshot tell you? Almost one 1/3 of voters don’t have any views on Keir Starmer. Some negative feelings from the core Tory base, Labour voters have positive feelings. The average person thinks Labour as a brand can’t lead but thinks the man in a suit can some don’t have any views of him. Safe to say the pandemic has delayed voters taking notice. During any crisis people normally give govt full support, again no poltics please we’re british. 

Compare to other opposition leaders at the same time, only David Cameron has similar numbers. Cameron held his cards close to his chest, voters listened to him during the 2008 crisis and his path to number 10 is history. During any crisis need to repeat the same message and get into voters minds. Not enough to say X party is shit, need your own story and message. Need to respond to any crisis, not policy firesale. Labour has made about 200+ policies but not a clear idea or message.

Polling is hinting towards a reduced majority and risk of hung parliament. Tories being biggest party still and Labour not being close to forming a govt alone. The margin of error means most likely looking at a smaller majority. Not certain but still possible increased majority is possible. The ground needed to be retaken is huge and need swing Tory but former Labour / lib dem voters.

Lots of work to do and hard choices need to be made. Loads of seats that last had a Labour MP back in 2001 or 2005 some further back.

The British public doesn’t pay any real attention to daily politics. Westminster in return does not pay any real attention to the public. Makes me think about this quote.

We are what we eat or you are what you eat

A very brief period of courting with various suitors seeking attention. One night stand happens, the result of the general election is called we forget. Don’t bother to inform ourselves, we have more knowledge about the next kettle good compared to political choices ahead. People go back to their daily lives ignoring politics until something happens that barely registering. To make matters worse even the leaders are ignorant of how governance works. Failing to understand or know that does not work like a car. Can pull the lever all you want but things don’t suddenly happen. Even the political class has no clue how things work or run. 

Both sides not understanding each other, each side thinking the worse about the other. High levels of ignorance and mistrust, that has been present for decades. Important to understand that last point, current feelings are nothing new just loyalty has declined. Agreement between everybody is rather messy. Most people don’t have a fixed ideology viewpoint, some lean but most are flexible. Of course, sometimes voters do want conflicting things. A good example is higher spending lower taxes, nobody has found a way to do that. Centre ground is a majority within the grand scheme of things. Voters want to be wooed, the common idea must appease voters but the problem here is that not what people want. For decades politicians have appeased to very worse instincts often presented as the only way to win over the centre-ground. Forget the base that already exists chasing after imagined voters.  

Once a narrative sets in often hard to shake it. The majority fail to educate themselves, history is written by the winners, not losers. Looking at the data Labour lost the retired not the working class. Yet the idea Labour lost the working class or spent all the money took the whole. Weak on crime when record backlog of court cases and lower amount of justice being done. Harsh sentences mean nothing if access to justice is restricted or limited. Education and history are important to help understand how we got here. I was shocked how we got here but once you consider everything it does make sense. My big worry is failing to learn the right lessons and not holding firm. Seeking imagined voters failing to hold on to what base we have. Deeply worried nobody has the right answers. 

A society that is ignorant, lacks the knowledge wonder why voters pick the unfit. Some people take pride in not thinking. I do understand that busy daily lives Westminster is alienly focusing on nonsense bullshit. Hope things can change and the system is repaired. Does require understand everything before coming up with solutions.