Category: Politics

Politics

Mini budget, making of a financial crisis

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Mini budget, making of a financial crisis

UK government announced a mini-budget, part of it would be measures to deal with rising energy costs.  Details finally become public, universal blanket support with average cost capped. Business energy costs again average price is limited, 6 months compared to 2 years for the public. Idea behind it is incentive to reduce energy usage.

Energy generators have been making record profits, estimated to be about £170 billion. Reason is gas prices being linked to general energy unit costs. Some producers have seen no raising costs but huge profits as prices rise. Windfall tax on excess profits and delinking gas prices from energy generation would make sense but that was ruled out. Govt intervention was needed as the market became dysfunctional. Global problem as energy supplies and high demand pushed up prices.

Mini-budget proposed went far further than just the energy support package. At least we got some more details but for many businesses already too late. Normally markets barely move, markets do listen and react. Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng plan for growth was unfunded tax cuts for the rich, higher borrowing and limited details on supply style reforms. Kwasi economic credibility was destroyed by his own budget and actions. That not normal at all and unlikely to calm markets if he stays in post. UK is now facing weaker pound which means higher inflation and higher borrowing costs. Higher inflation means higher interest rates, lowering house prices and increasing borrowing costs overall. Markets are going bake in higher prices as insurance against the risky budget ideas. Punishing and warning the government to avoid doing stupid ideas.

Supply style reforms with no real details mixed with tax cuts to boost demand. Plan for growth is going to end up reducing growth, any growth gained is wiped out. Estimates of how much growth from the reforms about 0.1%. UK is now facing further spending cuts, inflation is eating into budgets. Real easy obvious supply side reforms like reducing NHS backlogs and waiting times not on the table. Nothing to boost skills or training. Nothing on childcare nothing on well anything but tax cuts for the few. UK could borrow to fund these things, apart from tax cuts. Borrowing costs would go up but not by that much.

UK is facing a toxic mix of poor policy choices, under funding of public services and trade barriers with the EU. Everything that is happening right now is by choice. Planning reform was promised again but no real details. Against this backdrop UK wants to scrap EU laws it voted to keep. Reaction against the UK budget was not due one policy idea but all of it. Being forced to pick what bits you want to keep but can’t have it all. Liz Truss now faces a painful U turn against her policy platform, she could ignore it but pay a heavy price. UK is now likely to go into a deep recession without further support unlikely to recover in time for a general election. Creating the conditions for defeat and just from one short budget. Bank of England had to step in to protect pension funds. 

Lizz Truss should own this mess and quickly learn from it. Speaking this morning and doubling down has not helped. Long list of people who think UK needs to change course but only two voices matter on the subject. Three weeks into the job and not making a good start.

Politics

Tory leadership fight fantasy vs fantasy

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Tory leadership fight fantasy vs fantasy

Boris Johnson was the answer, now the question is who replaces him. Boris’s administration suffered various external shocks and was rocked by scandals. An opportunity was wasted to reshape Britain in Boris’s image. Elected on a vague promise, unable to make decisions. Shocks combined with poor judgement burned away any capital. Sexual assault allegations against a deputy whip, Boris doubled down pledging support. Minsters resigned in protest, causing the downfall. Ended the same way it started, a chaotic political mess.

Eight candidates want the job of prime minister. Against the backdrop of strong economic headwinds, a poisoned chalice for whoever takes over. Recovery in disposable incomes is unlikely before any election. A toxic mix of inflation, public service backlog and chaotic governance.

  1. Rishi Sunak
  2. Penny Mordaunt
  3. Tom Tugendhat
  4. Liz Truss
  5. Suella Braverman
  6. Jeremy Hunt
  7. Kemi Badenoch
  8. Nadhim Zahawi

Sunak’s pitch is traditional conservativism focused on fiscal discipline and competence. Reluctance to provide support during a cost-of-living crisis. Sunak was in charge of the economy; his pragmatism was limited.  Show himself to be rather naive, making obvious mistakes. Old school conservativism but unwilling to answer problems ahead.

Mordaunt is heir to Boris, whatever that platform was. Reactionary conservativism is relaxed about certain things but wants to reshape the world. Her problem is being naive, similar to Boris making mistakes. A chameleon that changes all the time, can she make unpopular choices we don’t know. Liar at heart she say anything and double down.

Tugendhat’s pitch return to one nation, a clean break from the past 3 years. Bit of everything, modern caring touch. Mix of small C social liberal but near the centre.

Truss heir to thatcherism, unable to grasp what that looks like. Rose tinted glasses view of Thatcher has created by accident a caricature.

Braverman stereotype Tory, caricature of the party.

Hunt small C one nation Tory, broke the NHS and now wants to fix it. Trying to appeal to couple different groups.

Badenoch honest Tory who small C but taking a traditional view on things.

Zahawi promise everything to everybody, another traditional Tory.

What question is the party membership trying to answer. Based on the candidates, sense of complacency and lack of desire to tackle the problems. No real debate about inflation or energy prices, just fantasy against fantasy.

UK faces a long period of stagnation, both political and economic. Internal party politics have caused brexit, threat of a trade war is still high. Uncertain world older homeowners and retired have avoided the shocks. Party has been ruthless in protecting the old at the cost of the young. Stable bedrock of homeowners who benefit from stagnation. Tories have little to no reason to reform the system. Older homeowners have benefited from this system. Party has stored up future problems and expects the old to vote Tory forever. 

Danger is creating poor Tory voters with wealth concentrated to the few. Many ways the Tory party is returning back to the past, party of rent seekers.

Economics, Journal, Politics

High inflation and low growth new normal?

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High inflation and low growth new normal?

The UK is suffering from Brexit-related inflation, supply shock energy and covid, with pent-up demand causing rising inflation, weak pound adds to the woes. Together this toxic mix is starting to lead to slow growth and high inflation. Strange mix of disinflationary and inflationary pressures, shocks to the economy.  Bank of England has few options, unable to reduce global energy inflation.

Simple narratives often the big picture. Fear is wage price spiral of the 1970s returns. That ignores the weak wage growth over the past decade, poor productivity that is plaguing UK. Major wage correction is required with big increases at the lower end. Public sector needs huge wage increases to keep staff. Already seeing some wage growth but that being outstripped by inflation. Companies finding keeping staff and hiring just as difficult. UK has far too many cars hand washes and little business investment.

Workers in the public sector are demanding higher pay or face strikes. Bank of England is warning workers not to seek higher wages or face fueling inflation. Misremembering what happened during the 1970s. Tories are stuck in thinking the answer comes from supply-side reforms when demand needs to be supported. A bunch of structural issues facing the UK, the housing market is sucking economic activity. Housing market is draining output as many are paying mortgages or funding retirement pots.

Simple narrative companies are greedy or workers are ignoring the complicated backdrop. No easy answers to solve the problems facing.

Northern Ireland protocol by design has created a sea border between it and UK. Closer alignment between the UK and EU would solve the issues. Border must be somewhere, some improvements but sea border must remain. Eurosceptic MPs are unlikely to support closer alignment, pragmatic thinking is dead. Scope for minor changes to be made but promises made for Eurosceptic can’t be kept. Most of the problems have been created by Boris Johnson’s own short-term thinking. Only cliff edges remain as solutions which lead us to a potential trade war with the EU. Not exactly smart to do during a period of high inflation with a weak pound.

Domestically Boris Johnson is weak and lacks the political capital or leadership to find a solution. Northern Ireland assembly DUP is blocking the appointment of a speaker. Local elections saw the DUP becoming the second-biggest party not the first. The government can’t be restored after a certain period election must be called again. DUP is demanding the Northern Ireland protocol be scrapped before they even consider coming back to the table. The UK is refusing protocol dispute resolution, recognizing European institutions would be toxic politics. EU position is renegotiation off the table, but the scope for changes once the UK implements the protocol in full. Without a change of leadership within Westminster, the deadlock looks safe to continue. Boris’s administration looks to be on its last legs, unlikely to command support within the commons. The only way forward looks to be reforming how the assembly works but Boris is refusing to listen to anybody.

The oil price had already been increasing, world reopening needed more oil as demand came back. Supply shock caused by covid would take years to resolve. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused energy prices to jump. Putting further pressure on supply chains, various raw materials being restricted by trade sanctions. Food prices are jumping in price, some nations are restricting exports. All of this adds to inflationary pressures facing the global economy. Energy prices rising have a disinflationary effect on demand. Growth slowing down across the world.

A weak pound causes imports to rise in price, exports should benefit but trade barriers. The labour market looks tight but ill health, and early retirement having less access to workers from the EU cause major headaches. The UK risks destroying its educated labour force with funding cuts and no retraining plan. No plan to get people back into the labour market.

Slow decline is far more likely over sudden bang but economy is looking rather sick. Wave of deregulation or supply side reforms won’t suddenly make things better. Tories no longer the party of business but stagnation suits homeowner base. High inflation could be new normal for the UK and low growth.

Journal, Politics

Governments proactive, opposition parties are reactive.

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Governments are proactive, and opposition parties are reactive.

How opposition parties react to events makes or breaks them. In politics, define yourself and risk somebody else doing that could be voters or opposition. Opposition parties are naturally reactive and need to hold power to do anything. Desperate for air time, every second counts. 

Repeat the same message and tailor it that reflect what is on our minds. Tony Blair and David Cameron, offer lessons for the opposition. Blair’s high levels of charisma allowed complex topics within the same message. Cameron used the 08-banking crash to steer the conversation toward a long-term Tory goal of cutting spending. Repeating simple yet similar messages, spending was the problem. As David Cameron, other people spend far easier target. Getting elected is the easy part, governing is the hard part. Layers of governance can take years for the policy to happen. An example would be Brexit, rushing ahead unprepared helped fuel disruption. Political disillusions formed a giant quagmire. UK is now looking at starting a trade war with the EU. Lack of serious discussions about what it means and the direction. Still years behind being able to fulfil the original agreement. Temporary delays now look more permanent. Centralised government still has many decentralised parts that don’t have direct control over. 

Civil service tries to execute the policy agenda, managers are required to get things done. Civil service needs more staff to deal with trade barriers, more friction means more paperwork. Tories have degraded UK public services and reduced the amount of spare capacity. External and internal shocks have tested the UK’s resilience. Civil service expanded to cope with the challenges. Now they face budget cuts and a bigger workload. Best and brightest with knowledge start leaving just dead wood. Result politicians find it even more difficult to get things done. 

Most people won’t notice the disruption and upheaval until it reaches breaking point. They do take note if hospitals or power supplies stop working. Queuing at airports or traffic jams at the border. The key points most voters are comfortable, the cost-of-living crisis is a shared problem. A major fall in income however can be weathered but still noticed. Anybody who is not comfortable is fucked, sudden fall in income can’t weather that. Economic shock wave shakes the whole system causing further pain. Can’t buy as much coffee and don’t need as many coffee shops. Poorest start to cut back on essential items, do you eat or heat your home. Party in power can be proactive in supporting the economy. Boris has decided to be reactive, and let a problem become big before acting. 

Rising demand for oil due to pent-up demand caused by covid. Global supply chains have ongoing issues, increasing prices as a result. Covid still causing turmoil, unlikely to end any time soon. Inflation has been climbing around the world, climate change is at a tipping point. Russia’s war with Ukraine has caused a huge energy supply shock, and won’t be ending any time soon. Headwinds are flowing stronger further disruption is certain. Long-term structural problems remain unsolved and won’t be easy to fix. A plan for all these challenges is lacking and no long-term thinking is is at the heart of n10. 

British politics got semi unpopular government, doing unpopular things. Public trusts it to keep things working. They don’t trust Boris Johnson, anything linked to him is toxic. A posh party that is good at management, somewhat out of touch. The danger is past negative ideas about the party start to appear in people’s minds. Party brand is strong, trusting it but past biases remain. Party is rather good at finding a direction and ruthless when comes to winning. Waiting for the Tory party to fail is like waiting for a lottery win.

Labour has the opposite problem, weak brand and neutral views on the leader. Don’t want to be a hostage to fortune makes the job even harder. Unable to steer the conversation Labour found itself in a trap of its own making. Burnt by various defeats refusing to reframe the last decade. Parts of the party have decided to refight old battles and not notice this different opponent. Keir needs an answer that lets him reclaim the centre-ground and offer something that people could see as improving things. Any idea needs a clear united message or narrative about the last decade. Internal opponents complain about being too right or left-wing and lack any answers. The danger here is clear voters decide what the party stands for before it can set out its stalls. Party is not trusted and voters won’t listen. Rebuilding that trust with limited air time is tough. 

Historic Labour seats that look similar to swing Tory seats with retired homeowners in old working-class communities. Income poor but asset rich thanks to homeownership. Traditional Tory seats are income rich being asset rich, mainly homeowners. Tories are suffering from small C traditional liberals moving away from the party. The narrative mainly focuses on Labour woes here, first Scotland followed by huge numbers of seats in the mix. These seats form part of a major realignment in British politics. Labour has become the party of urban liberal voters, a party of the new professional working class. Tories have become the party of homeowners, older with some small c liberals. Returning to old party battlegrounds in modern times. Voters are becoming far more volatile, old safe seats are changing and new marginal seats are appearing. Both parties are protected due to first past the post for now. Party loyalty is breaking down, swing voters matter more and own that centre-ground. Homeowners with mortgage holders have become a powerful bloc. Renters don’t have the same size in terms of population and don’t turn out. 

Doing nothing and hoping to win by default, not exactly going to cope with having to do unpopular things. Tories have a nasty habit of winning, this time around decided not to help with falling incomes. Learning from each defeat, reshaping the party feeling like something different. Boris won on the idea of getting Brexit done and improving public services. People saw Boris, not another posh Tory who did not care or would not get stuff done.

The two most likely outcomes for the next election are a reduced majority or a hung parliament. Labour needs to lay the groundwork or risk further defeats. Never let a crisis go to waste, Tories are drifting. Won’t stay aimless without a direction for much longer. The electoral map is huge a challenge, Labour lacks a real loyal base. Party needs long-term Tory voters, swing Tory lean to win seats. 2017 was the result of some rather volatile voting patterns in unique times. Britain needs the Labour party to react instead of being a passive bystander. Damage the Tories have done means it is timing for a fightback, the desire to win is lacking. 

Not easy being a party of opposition you’re reacting to events. Governments are proactive, opposition parties are reactive. One side is fixated on internal battles trying to keep hold of power. Party gate has destroyed trust in Boris. Doing whatever is required to keep in office. Screw running the nation unfit Boris needs to stay prime minister at any cost. The inmates are running the asylum. labour lacks the confidence to say what needs to be said. Failed to make an impact within the hostile environment it faces. 

Easy to feel disheartened and a potential trade war with the EU not going to help. 

Journal, Politics

Boris Johnson no confidence no power

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Boris Johnson no confidence no power

Boris Johnson has won a vote of no confidence, 211 to 148. End of Johnson has started, formal way of removing him is over for now. Rule changes can happen that allow him to be removed from office sooner over later. Boris has no shame so won’t resign; political pressure alone won’t work. Things could get rather ruthless and dirty soon enough depends how savvy Boris is. Big danger for Boris is his own actions cause his downfall.

Opponents of Boris have yet to unite together but his own actions could do that. Come down to hard on the rebels could start making powerful enemies. Unorganised rebels caused by an organic dislike of Boris could get organised. Self-made mistakes over last 6 months have compounded together into a perfect storm. Angered the party into action caused the largest rebellion faced by the leadership. MPs knew what Boris was like they took a gamble for somebody unfit to become prime minster.

What happens now is start of a shadow leadership fight.  By elections are coming up soon could become a new flash point. Commons select committee on standards report on Boris could cause further pain for him. Unable to fix the recommendations could cause further pain.

Queen speech was rather empty, not many bills on the agenda. Boris has done rather little with that 80-seat majority. Lack of direction has caused things to drift along. Party was united to stop Corbyn and do Brexit. Now it plans to undo Brexit and Corbyn is long gone. Lack of answers on offer for things like cost-of-living crisis.

Boris like a wounded stag, got away yet again but final blow is not far away. Individual hunters want him but don’t want to work together just yet. One week a long time in politics. Events could pick up pace quickly with end being sudden.

Reign of Boris the fool needs to end, but I fear other fools await us. Nightmare won’t end any time soon until the political power of baby boomers is broken.

Politics, Thoughts

Outcome of next general election has various scenarios. 

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Outcome of next general election has various scenarios.

  1. 80+ seat Tory majority
  2. 40+ seat Tory majority
  3. Small Tory majority
  4. Hung parliament another election
  5. Minority government
  6. Formal coalition
  7. Small Labour majority
  8. 40+ Labour majority

1, Further 40 Labour marginal seats could become gains. Small swing is required to flip the seats, long term trend against Labour in said seats.

2, Reduced majority with Labour flipping marginal seats. Recovery takes place in England or Scotland or Wales, could be mix across the board. Couple southern English seats flip with other trending labour.

3, Working or simple majority is the outcome here. Labour becoming competitive once again in marginal seats, deep recovery takes place in England or Scotland or Wales, could be mix across the board.

4, No simple majority can form, coalition becomes impossible. Leading to another election being held to resolve the problem.

5, Biggest party leads minority government, Labour is supported by other parties.

6, Formal coalition is formed with simple or working majority.

7, Simple or working labour majority.

8, Working Labour majority.

At the moment 3 outcomes are likely, 3th 4th and 5th scenarios. Boris Johnson has become deeply unpopular, dysfunctional responses to self-made crisis after each other. Voters don’t trust anything connected to him, becoming a drag on his party.

Don’t forget huge cost of living crisis, past ones have ended prime ministers.  Polling with focus groups is not looking good, small swing ends the majority. Former Labour seats caused huge pain for the party, Tories even facing losing long term seats seems fine with it. Blind spot over the seats flipping away from the party, ignoring and viewing them as not important. Success of the party in winning on display here, not really been thinking about anything does not need to.

Both mainstream parties have seen rapid shifts in terms of support. Former Labour seats have seen huge swings against the party about 12% in 2019. Smaller but steady flow of swings against Tories have been happening over last 20 years. Labour lost Scotland, parts of the north, Tories have lost London, cities and graduates.

Simple or working majority I think is most likely outcome. Tories barely holding on to power. If Labour wants to win needs a story about the past decade and cost of living crisis connected to it. Unconvinced looking competence alone is enough, focus on bread-and-butter issues. Challenge is huge with mountain to climb 3 election cycles or more. Possible for the party to use the cost-of-living crisis as reason vote Labour. Small group want radical change but not sure most really do. Never let a crisis go to waste but first step is getting voters to listen. Very long time the party has been untrusted on almost every issue. Needs to show the party is ready to run things.

After 12 years in power, Tories feel lacking in their mission. Labour lacks the desire to win after 4 defeats. Nothing is certain when comes to politics huge amount of uncertainty. Keir Starmer being a success leaves the door open, repairing the party standing and learning how to talk is success.

Politics

Easing the cost-of-living crisis

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Easing the cost-of-living crisis

Massive fall in real disposable incomes, started back in 2021 forecasts won’t end until 2024. Rapid rise in inflation off the back of Brexit, covid pandemic helping to increase it. Russia war with Ukraine has helped cause a huge energy supply shock. Shocks like that are normally deflationary, market failure has helped make this shock worse. Last decade has seen weak wage growth, barely at same levels last seen in 2008. Poorest have suffered the most over the last decade, won’t be changed any time soon. Reforms designed to help kick start wage growth have stalled or failed to appear. Growth has been slower compared to before Brexit, economy is smaller compared to what it would be. Weak fiscal stabilizers forced monetary policy to act and cause a recession. 

  1. Increase the base level of all benefits
  2. Increase benefits in line with inflation and above it
  3. Scrapping 2 child limit on tax credits
  4. Scrapping the bedroom tax
  5. Change the UC taper rate
  6. Scrapping age rules on housing benefits / increase to match rents
  7. Allow local councils to pay housing benefits directly to landlords
  8. No delay on first UC payments
  9. Cash payments for energy bills
  10. Writing off any legacy debts
  11. Targeted support for food bank users
  12. Expansion of social tariffs

Well known that best way to solve poverty is more money.  Longer term solutions are required like insulation program funded by grants. UK housing stock leaky, having some of lowest energy efficiency in Europe. Reforming the rules making housing stock healthier, would help with people’s health overall. 12 points listed above is undoing some of the government flagships reforms to welfare. Longer term reforms to energy market to include more resilience against price shocks.

Giant fall in disposable incomes something not seen for decades. Normally only see disposable fall that much during a recession, very real worry about stagflation. Boris and Rishi have decided for one off cash payment. Won’t be enough to cover the fall in disposable incomes but better than nothing. Half measure that already too late.

Politics

Morality is not black and white

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Morality is colourful never just black and white. Politics is about priorities; each choice leads to different outcomes. Choices are talked about in terms of being progressive or regressive. Push and pull factor which means certain priorities viewed as important.  Can pull certain voters with policy or push them away. Example 2 child tax credit limits, pulls voters who view welfare spending as a concern. Policy makes little to no sense, don’t really save that much money and cause great harm. Possible ends up costing more money with later state intervention.

Sometimes voters can support things that are against their own self-interest. Family of four may support the policy even if they get tax credits. Family of four could not support it but won’t vote, view other things as important.  Actions can have very limited consequences if voters don’t notice or view it as important. National insurance for example has increased at the same time income tax has declined. Ignorance plays a part, paying more taxes in general yet the message is otherwise. Does not help when journalists fail to inform or explain what happening.

We treat politics sometimes like a football team, criticism is awful must always support the team. SNP higher education policy on tuition fees has seen reduction in number of poorer students at university. More middle-class students going to university compare to poorer ones. As it turns out most voters who better off vote more compared to ones who don’t. One policy does not match the message or aims but suits the SNP nicely because that big lump of voters who are happy.

Which should get people asking the question what other polices don’t match the reality. Instead, the question is asked is SNP not a progressive party?

Over asking the question why was this outcome picked over the others that help poorer students more. Education policy been focused for very long time on university and ignored other elements. Graduate dominate political parties don’t have a clue what none graduates want. Tuition fees are basically future tax on graduates for middle class families. Helping fund the system for poorer students. Scrapping it means lower tax rates for graduates, less poorer students at uni. SNP has made that choice, again, comes down to priorities.  What is better helping 1/3 or 3/4 of students. Arguments is this more progressive or regressive don’t matter. What matters is are willing to take unpopular choices and understand how run the nation. What matters is why are certain choices being made. What matters is understanding the outcome of each choice. What matters is informing people about the choices on offer.

*Note the examples I used here could apply to any political party. I get the feeling I have misused morality.

Journal, Politics

Ukraine failure of foreign policy and diplomacy

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Ukraine failure of foreign policy and diplomacy

Modern world has created 24/7 news cycle, consumed by one thing. Often forget the smaller events, never reported due lacking the click power. Short snappy stories with so much detail lost, context missing and never explained. Things move quickly, interest is lost just fast any story turns up. Single big event has dozens of small events feeding into it. Russia newest invasion of Ukraine is no different. No formal notice given but last 8 years Russia been at war with Ukraine. No winners here just many losers in European foreign policy terms. Slow drift has become a series of major policy changes over night. History behind Ukraine is important, UK former ambassador to Ukraine wrote an article covering it. Missing the link for now.

I hold a deep concern over everybody escalating consequences are going to be huge. Nobody been honest about the costs involved here, everybody is gambling away. Small eastern European states announcement they want to join EU/NATO, some declaring sooner the better. Finland been talking about; Russian has threatened it along with Sweden. EU directly allowing the finance of weapon purchases. Countless nations increasing defense spending. Germany dropping foreign policy platforms it held for over 30 years. Turkey U turning on banning Russian ships. Been so many more shifts in policy hard to keep track. European geopolitics is changing at rapid pace. Everybody asking questions but very few easy answers on offer.

EU has tried to create single foreign platform, different priorities between east and west made that complicated. Dismissed the concerns of Eastern Europe, paranoid about Russia.  Europe is now waking up to the idea has to defend, eastern European states. Are we really ready for nuclear war over Estonia? Sanctions alone failed to stop Russia, needs stronger deterrence. Stationing troops closer to Russian border, Russia sees that as further escalation. Another escalation on top growing European influence due trade gravity. Every action or statement carries a big risk, things could get worse before things improve.

Takes time before any impact is felt, human misery caused by displacement or economic hit that going to happen. Images already of people trapped at Polish border, racist guards blocking people crossing. Foreign students trapped between borders requiring evacuations. Europe could help but again Russians see any logistics as trojan horse. India wants the students back but my lack the capacity to do it. Need cooperation between various nations, finding staff to fly people back. We already seen nations forget about people in war zones or when states fail. Afghanistan has British nationals with families trapped outside the borders or trapped inside. No plan on deal with countless tragedies, reduced cooperation when we need more. For every person killed that one family now grieving, every tank destroyed that group of families crying over loved ones.

Nobody wins off the back of human suffering, we all lost due this war. European foreign policy has been slow to consider what Russia would think. Fault is shared across Europe, not single action or act to blame but long series of events. Russia own actions have added fuel to the fire, directly attacking or threatening, state sponsored murder. What the strategy was it has failed and produced an outcome nobody wanted. Human suffering is huge going to cause shockwaves for whole of Europe. Credit to the EU crafted a refugee policy within days everybody agreeing to it.UK however still holding firm no visa no entry and hostile towards anybody who not rich. UK failure to deal with growing Russian influence in British politics is shocking. Sadly, British politics has always been about money, buying you whatever influence no questions asked. Foster a society around attacking institutions refused to repair or defend them. UK legal system bending to protect money laundering, white collar crime is viewed as naughty but less serious. Little to no resources spent on enforcement, underinvestment is coming back to bite us. British state is underfunded, legal system is open to abuse. Everybody has opened themselves up to foreign actors, Cyprus is hot bed of Russian money too.

Only plan appears to be escalation, remains unclear what de-escalation would look like. West has some idea what Putin wants but unclear if Ukrainians would be happy with it. Russia wants real leverage, freezing of the current status quo. What that would look like remains unclear, does look like regime change at the moment. Fresh water ports are important to the Russian black sea fleet.

Britain has a chance to show it still great global player in the world. Boris Johnson is stuck, domestic toxic and weak during any crisis. Leadership rivals are attacking him on defence spending. Ranks of the Tory party are hardening against Russia and demanding more must be done. Close personal links to Russia not helpful, leave campaign close ties are painful. Russia western allies are thin on the ground, seeking to distance themselves. Russian influencers who caused so much pain and damage, trying to weaken Europe, repeat the same lines.

Regional stability is precious must be protected at all costs, defending law and order is necessary. Institutions we took for granted need reform, rebuilding. Things can never go back to normal, relationship with Russia is forever changed. Make no mistake things are about to get whole lot worse before anything improves on the ground. Cool heads must prevail otherwise things could get much worse and spiral out of control. Whole host of outcomes which come with various costs and risks. Putin has gambled, Europe strategy around eastern Europe is dead. Only thing that is certain, old order is ripped apart. We must rebuild, reforge and cooperation with Russia. We can’t risk peace in eastern Europe, other nations look unstable already. In the real-world things are never black and white. Only good thing that comes out of this, my desire to visit Ukraine. Learnt enough that looks like it would be a great trip away. I hope that I get a chance to visit it.

European peace is at stake, tinder box in eastern Europe right now. Just hope no cultural or historical items are destroyed by this war.

Update

West does not want military action, sad truth not willing to risk war with Russia. No fly zone would be an act of war, direct action against Russia military. Not even sure it would have the desired outcome, ending the war. We knew about this months ago yet failed to plan. Already the threat of nuclear weapons moving to Belarus. Which creates bit of problem for Eastern European states arming Ukraine. GRU have long history of operations against foreign nations, 2014 Czech Republic. Sending military shipments starts to become dangerous operation. Unlikely have any real impact being so late in day. Reaction so far from the west is not close to appeasement. How we got here weak enforcement and procedures around Russia money. Been reactive to Russia over proactive it starting to show. Borders of Europe faces very big humanitarian crisis, unclear how long it going to last. Europe has acted quite fast about coping with inflows from Ukraine. More needs to be done, more resources not just food and water.

Worse is yet to come and hardest part.

Journal, Politics

Russia invasion of Ukraine

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Russia invasion of Ukraine

Russia has attacked and invaded Ukraine again, 8 years ago it took Crimea, 4 years later started arming rebels in Donbass.  Everybody knew this day was coming, warned about it but West largely did nothing. Warm words of support but lacks the desire to defend Ukraine. Nothing short of Western troops would stop Putin now.  Sanctions that hurt Russia but cause pain in the west is off the cards. Just bystanders watching Russia declare war against Ukraine. Appears Putin does not desire another frozen conflict but wants puppet state of Ukraine. Remains unclear how far he wants to go. Frozen conflicts caused by Russia in Georgia, Moldova, trouble is coming back to Bosnia. State of emergency in Moldova, Lithuania, others are watching in horror. Threat to none NATO members is real, refugees are likely cross borders to escape.  Sweden and Finland both are talking about NATO membership. NATO summit is due tomorrow, but nations are talking. I do anything to avoid X but I won’t do that is not good enough.

Putin has priced in the cost of sanctions; military action is only option left. No fly zone over Ukraine created by NATO would be a start. I do fear only way to forward is troops to Ukraine.