Governments are proactive, and opposition parties are reactive.
How opposition parties react to events makes or breaks them. In politics, define yourself and risk somebody else doing that could be voters or opposition. Opposition parties are naturally reactive and need to hold power to do anything. Desperate for air time, every second counts.
Repeat the same message and tailor it that reflect what is on our minds. Tony Blair and David Cameron, offer lessons for the opposition. Blair’s high levels of charisma allowed complex topics within the same message. Cameron used the 08-banking crash to steer the conversation toward a long-term Tory goal of cutting spending. Repeating simple yet similar messages, spending was the problem. As David Cameron, other people spend far easier target. Getting elected is the easy part, governing is the hard part. Layers of governance can take years for the policy to happen. An example would be Brexit, rushing ahead unprepared helped fuel disruption. Political disillusions formed a giant quagmire. UK is now looking at starting a trade war with the EU. Lack of serious discussions about what it means and the direction. Still years behind being able to fulfil the original agreement. Temporary delays now look more permanent. Centralised government still has many decentralised parts that don’t have direct control over.
Civil service tries to execute the policy agenda, managers are required to get things done. Civil service needs more staff to deal with trade barriers, more friction means more paperwork. Tories have degraded UK public services and reduced the amount of spare capacity. External and internal shocks have tested the UK’s resilience. Civil service expanded to cope with the challenges. Now they face budget cuts and a bigger workload. Best and brightest with knowledge start leaving just dead wood. Result politicians find it even more difficult to get things done.
Most people won’t notice the disruption and upheaval until it reaches breaking point. They do take note if hospitals or power supplies stop working. Queuing at airports or traffic jams at the border. The key points most voters are comfortable, the cost-of-living crisis is a shared problem. A major fall in income however can be weathered but still noticed. Anybody who is not comfortable is fucked, sudden fall in income can’t weather that. Economic shock wave shakes the whole system causing further pain. Can’t buy as much coffee and don’t need as many coffee shops. Poorest start to cut back on essential items, do you eat or heat your home. Party in power can be proactive in supporting the economy. Boris has decided to be reactive, and let a problem become big before acting.
Rising demand for oil due to pent-up demand caused by covid. Global supply chains have ongoing issues, increasing prices as a result. Covid still causing turmoil, unlikely to end any time soon. Inflation has been climbing around the world, climate change is at a tipping point. Russia’s war with Ukraine has caused a huge energy supply shock, and won’t be ending any time soon. Headwinds are flowing stronger further disruption is certain. Long-term structural problems remain unsolved and won’t be easy to fix. A plan for all these challenges is lacking and no long-term thinking is is at the heart of n10.
British politics got semi unpopular government, doing unpopular things. Public trusts it to keep things working. They don’t trust Boris Johnson, anything linked to him is toxic. A posh party that is good at management, somewhat out of touch. The danger is past negative ideas about the party start to appear in people’s minds. Party brand is strong, trusting it but past biases remain. Party is rather good at finding a direction and ruthless when comes to winning. Waiting for the Tory party to fail is like waiting for a lottery win.
Labour has the opposite problem, weak brand and neutral views on the leader. Don’t want to be a hostage to fortune makes the job even harder. Unable to steer the conversation Labour found itself in a trap of its own making. Burnt by various defeats refusing to reframe the last decade. Parts of the party have decided to refight old battles and not notice this different opponent. Keir needs an answer that lets him reclaim the centre-ground and offer something that people could see as improving things. Any idea needs a clear united message or narrative about the last decade. Internal opponents complain about being too right or left-wing and lack any answers. The danger here is clear voters decide what the party stands for before it can set out its stalls. Party is not trusted and voters won’t listen. Rebuilding that trust with limited air time is tough.
Historic Labour seats that look similar to swing Tory seats with retired homeowners in old working-class communities. Income poor but asset rich thanks to homeownership. Traditional Tory seats are income rich being asset rich, mainly homeowners. Tories are suffering from small C traditional liberals moving away from the party. The narrative mainly focuses on Labour woes here, first Scotland followed by huge numbers of seats in the mix. These seats form part of a major realignment in British politics. Labour has become the party of urban liberal voters, a party of the new professional working class. Tories have become the party of homeowners, older with some small c liberals. Returning to old party battlegrounds in modern times. Voters are becoming far more volatile, old safe seats are changing and new marginal seats are appearing. Both parties are protected due to first past the post for now. Party loyalty is breaking down, swing voters matter more and own that centre-ground. Homeowners with mortgage holders have become a powerful bloc. Renters don’t have the same size in terms of population and don’t turn out.
Doing nothing and hoping to win by default, not exactly going to cope with having to do unpopular things. Tories have a nasty habit of winning, this time around decided not to help with falling incomes. Learning from each defeat, reshaping the party feeling like something different. Boris won on the idea of getting Brexit done and improving public services. People saw Boris, not another posh Tory who did not care or would not get stuff done.
The two most likely outcomes for the next election are a reduced majority or a hung parliament. Labour needs to lay the groundwork or risk further defeats. Never let a crisis go to waste, Tories are drifting. Won’t stay aimless without a direction for much longer. The electoral map is huge a challenge, Labour lacks a real loyal base. Party needs long-term Tory voters, swing Tory lean to win seats. 2017 was the result of some rather volatile voting patterns in unique times. Britain needs the Labour party to react instead of being a passive bystander. Damage the Tories have done means it is timing for a fightback, the desire to win is lacking.
Not easy being a party of opposition you’re reacting to events. Governments are proactive, opposition parties are reactive. One side is fixated on internal battles trying to keep hold of power. Party gate has destroyed trust in Boris. Doing whatever is required to keep in office. Screw running the nation unfit Boris needs to stay prime minister at any cost. The inmates are running the asylum. labour lacks the confidence to say what needs to be said. Failed to make an impact within the hostile environment it faces.
Easy to feel disheartened and a potential trade war with the EU not going to help.