Double election in May 2024?

I’m starting to think the next UK general election will be in May 2024. The date makes sense when you consider the current environment. A Conservative party is an unhappy place at the moment, drifting without any new ideas and doing the bare basics. Exhausted after 13 years of ruling, deeply tired after dealing with crisis after crisis. Party unity has broken down, infighting is common sometimes the party line is forgotten. The sniping between ministers or even briefing against the policy is common. Some people have their eye on the leadership of the party after the election.  It feels like a continuation of Boris Johnson’s just without the parties. Acting more like an opposition party.

May 2024 date makes sense for practical and political reasons. Holding both local and general at the same time reduces the pain from any local losses.  In practical terms, it allows you to focus the message on national issues and limits local issues. In political terms, major local losses would be painful. Thus heading into a general election would make you look divided. Conservative infighting would only get worse, forget about passing anything unpopular. Bills have already been dropped due to fears over the lack of support.

Energy supply shock has hit incomes, high inflation is causing further pain. Energy prices have decreased but remain higher by a significant amount. Largest hit to incomes in British history within the last 300 years. Looking doubtful things improve any time soon. Bank of England has raised interest rates to reduce inflation. That takes time and unclear without or not it needed to act. Rates are slowly feeding into the wider economy, and borrowing for a mortgage is much higher than before.  The average length is between 2 – 5 years majority ending in 2024.  Mortgage deals are ending with cheap rates forcing much higher rates onto borrowers. Small but highly concentrated group of voters about to get a significant income hit. Suffering from higher energy prices, inflation and much higher mortgage costs. The majority of the pain for mortgages is yet to come.

The latest date for any election is 2025, the government is already in campaign mode over running things. Rishi 5 missions look more like a campaign. Everything is pointing towards things that won’t improve by January 2025. The prime minister can pick the date and roll the dice, waiting it out could prove to be worse. Infighting within the government is looking worse every day. Some good news Boris Johnson has quit as an MP, the bad news is others are still pissing in the tent. At least that circus won’t drag on but a small number of by-elections are coming.

People are already quitting saying it has been toxic or exhausting. Tory rule has been one of crisis, far from fixing the roof been trying to keep it from flying off. The age of crisis and drama is coming to an end.

Nicola Sturgeon resigns

Nicola Sturgeon announced she resigning as first minster, along with leader of the SNP. Lifelong career in politics, she decided it is time to leave on her terms. Style was professional, measured and straight to the point. Sense of duty that sometimes is lacking from others. Able to switch between sounding human, giving detailed information in a clear way. During dark early days of covid she was a shining light on what to do. Compared to Boris Johnson he looked out of his depth.

One of the best communicators in decades British politics has seen. Sharp contrast to many other politicians, popular figure within and outside the party. I quite liked her for a number of reasons. I respected her, don’t fully agree with her politics.

Party crafted a space within left, centre left with centre of Scotland. Replacing Labour in minds of voters as being the progressive choice. Attracting a wide range of voters, some with social conservatives’ views. How she approached disagreement, creating bridges and finding common ground something that is often missing in English politics.

Scottish politics still had toxic elements but largely it was restricted to certain debates. Above all else Scottish parliament offers a blueprint for how politics can be done. Working with your opponents to help craft legislation. Even with SNP being a majority it still worked with opponents to create bills. Able to strengthen institutions and overall empowering Scotland. Westminster never really understood how to deal with Scotland or engage with it. SNP dominated the landscape during her leadership.  Longest serving first minster and first women in the role. Many reasons why it was time to leave, wanted to avoid being a divisive figure. Resignation statement makes clear just how draining and brutal it can be. History going to view her with kindness. 

Support for independence remains not a solid majority but has crystalized a minority. Nicola, understand you needed a majority not just a thin one. Independence being the core aim, she no longer believes she can carry the flag or deliver it. I believe in the union but understand it needs to change.

It would be foolish to believe the indepedence disappears overnight. I don’t think sudden recovery happens overnight for Labour. SNP are firmly now the establishment, that makes it hard to paint the party as outsiders. Record highs they enjoy are unlikely to remain forever. No party has a right to exist.

Now a new guard takes over, with no successor in sight process to select a new leader for Scotland begins.

ID cards compromise for a liberal immigration system?

Immigration and migration are signs of success economy. A small number of people migrate, moving for work or looking for a new home. The vast majority of people don’t move that far from where they are born. Big cities draw people in for work before they settle in urban areas nearby. Education opens up opportunities, others stay closer to home.

The movement of people even at an internal level is small. External populations don’t move on mass unless they are forced to. Nobody questions people moving from cities to towns, but they do question foreign-born citizens coming here. The reason is simple people don’t like the unknown. In reality, you have more in common with them than billionaires or millionaires who own various media platforms.

The political establishment has made legal routes, costly plus time-consuming. Basically, creating a system that incentivizes the rich or middle class to use it. Crafting an impression that they want to reduce migration, but in reality, no desire at all to do it. A shrinking labour force is never a good thing. Restricting the supply of labour even further would be terrible news.

Using every single lever possible to undermine the immigration system. Reducing resources for the asylum seekers, dehumanizing the legal route. Creating unsafe routes only real way in. At the same time created a toxic system that treats people badly. Gangs exist due to a lack of legal safe easy routes for many people to take. Most people crossing channels in small boats are asylum seekers. Taking the risky deadly trip, doing nothing wrong. Highly driven people who you want in the UK.

Speaking of the asylum system has slowly been degraded. The number of people applying is static, compared to others smaller than average. Therefore, current problems are a due backlog of cases not being decided within 6 months. On-purpose delays are designed to push people away. We could let people work as cases are decided but we don’t.

Sometimes problems are complicated, often lacking any solutions. As it turns out-migration is one of the problems. You can create a system that is safer, and easier to use with lower barriers. Or could create a system that treats people like animals and a problem. I rather treat people how I would like to be treated because one day, the UK could find itself at the other end of the stick.

The unique thing about the UK is the lack of a universal identity card system. Have a patchwork system with certain services restricted already. The state is already powerful enough can oppress citizens or none citizens if it wanted. Therefore, the tools already exist, for an authoritarian regime to abuse the tools. Already a push at the moment for voter ID checks to come into force.

Could create a card system that allows for an amnesty to happen. Easier enforcement at the cost of civil liberties, not a fan but would help. Given the scale of identity, checks don’t think civil liberties are the problem here. Created a society that outsources most of the functions of government to private businesses.

I have slowly changed my mind about ID cards. Why I think it could lead to a more liberal and sensible immigration system. The issue is less important and most voters feel the UK has restored control. Vibe-based policymaking has been powerful in recent times. Recent newspaper highlights have not helped with the idea the govt is incompetent, painting the picture of an uncontrolled mess. ID cards can help reassure voters, govt has a grip. Opening up the way for a more flexible and liberal system. Possibly you could see freedom of movement return in a future labour govt policy mix.

Voter ID does come to pass ID cards could help stop discriminating against some groups. I do recognise that most voters are more authoritarian than me. Simply dismissing the idea can lead to some horrible outcomes. The price worth paying for a kinder approach. Without losing the ability to implement a more liberal policy.

Labour is trusted, ID cards could seal voters’ trust in the party on immigration. Could end up being a compromise worth considering. Labour caution so far is worrying me but I can understand why.

Age of disruption

Legacy of GFC and Thatcher reforms

After the great financial crisis, the UK has underperformed and never fully recovered. Many parts of the UK have never recovered from repeated shocks. Failure to address the imbalance has created deep scars. Nations around the world share similar problems but tried to fix them. Economic inequality has major negative outcomes. The UK is looking at two lost decades of wage growth, and dozens of structural problems that are hard to fix. Deregulation with light touch regulation has created low competition. State intervention has become a sticking plaster for fundamental problems.

Margaret Thatcher’s early years saw unpopular reforms first before sharing the benefits later. Of course, the reforms she did, caused huge amounts of pain. She accelerated trends against unproductive industry and sold off public owned assets. Took years before the fruits of the reforms took hold. Therefore Thatcher benefited from the business cycle returning back. She did however cause a massive set of problems for future prime ministers. She created a class of income poor but asset rich workers. Thatcher did create regulators that went with the light-touch approach.

A dream turned nightmare with unproductive vested interests returning. Markets have become dominated by small groups of companies with little or no competition. Public-owned companies have become private unproductive companies with no competition. Weak labour market regulation did create cheap labour by the backdoor. UK workers on average are poorer than European workers. Globalisation saw many benefits, cheap goods created a wave of low inflation. Central banks believed they had control over the levers of inflation.

New Labour riding the Thatcher wave

New Labour decided to ride the wave Thatcher helped create. Economic boom allowed for lower taxes, Blair did some unpopular reforms. Labour did however invest into public services, day to day spending funded by tax increases. Brown like many others had fiscal rules to help guide policy. Party did loads to help the poorest. Leaving in place the fundamental changes that allowed more homeowners to exist and inflate the asset prices further. Some of the more difficult reforms ended up being to scrapped. Blair and Brown funded infrastructures projects to boost growth. Much of new Labour legacy destroyed outside handful of reforms. Brown supply side reforms like minium wage have stood the test of time.

Open secret the conservatives wanted to cut spending, blamed New labour for the great financial crisis. Brown allowed Cameron to craft a narrative Labour spending was to blame. Financial crash was caused by bankers, inflated assets with high risk borrowing. Bubble burst with assets falling in price, banks cut lending due lacking the cash to cover the losses. Financial sector was bailed out before it would seize up. Reform came to reduce the risk in the system, patch work but better than nothing.

Cameron / Osborne ideology debt rules

Cameron / Osborne solution was cutting public spending. Poorest in society ended up taking the bulk of the burden. The pair reduced the size of the state to kick start the economy. Not exactly kicked started the economy, helped to stall the recovery until they slowed down the pace of cuts. Various economic numbers have stalled or failed to meet the historic trends.

Conservative’s self-made rules have been changed before,  no reason why debt-to-GDP could not be stable. The choice was made ratio of debt-to-GDP has to come down. Rules are designed to create some stability and credibility behind a political choice Tories have chased from 2001 onwards. George Osborne’s office of budget responsibility has highlighted the choice before. Osborne decided to promote tax cuts for the middle class and wealthy when he could get away with it.

UK like many other nations enjoyed record low rates on borrowing for over a decade during a period of low growth. Failed to invest during this perfect time, much needed reforms got ignored or kicked into the long grass. The UK is set to have lost two decades of economic performance and face huge drags in growth. Result is public services without capacity or resilience needed against shocks. 12 years of pain for no real benefit. Client journalists have repeated the lie that things must be this way. Alternatives do exist but nobody must be informed about them.

Boris Brexit size hole and Truss gone

Cameron failure over party management, ruined his career and caused brexit to happen. Three prime ministers in a row grasped the brexit mandate. Briefly Cameron held an EU referendum, lost it and quit. Unable to control eurosceptic flank, too a gamble and lost.

May flirted with eurosceptic flank, tried create internal coalition within the party that could support brexit. She took a gamble for an election and lost her majority.  Once again failing at party management after crafting hard red lines making any deal impossible.

Johnson came along with Irish sea border deal nobody could support before and passed it. Clown was crippled by crisis, poor at party management. Party animal that was Johmson, lied and cheated his way to the top. Defeated by his own hubis, whole government resigned and forced Boris to quit.

Truss quickly came to power and quickly resigned. One budget promising growth without hard work, tax cuts for the rich. Helped to cause market turmoil pushed up borrowing costs and caused mortgage rates to skyrocket.

Rich Rishi has come yet another Oxford graduate who has his fingers over this mess. At the time of writing he still prime minster.

Age of disruption came from with the conservative

Various choices therefore, the result is a shortfall of about £35 to 50 billion, extra money is wiggle room.  Just in case the magic growth fairy fails to visit. Structual weakness UK has underperformed and never fully recovered. Moron risk premium has now been applied to the UK. Goverment job is lender of last resort against shocks that happen, things like covid or recessions. More growth means less tax revenue is required. Brexit created trade barriers helping to fuel already poor growth of the UK economy has resulted in a bigger shortfall. Increasing growth means more tax revenue but supply-side reforms like a more liberal planning system are badly needed.

British politics has created a toxic trap, incentives against doing painful but much-needed reforms. An endless cycle of cutting just means worse public services that cost more in the long run. Big failure over last couple of decades have been not building enough. Anti growth coalition Liz Truss talked about includes Tory voters, mainly older homeowners who block things getting done. Older voters dislike doing what is required to help younger workers who fund their retirement. Poorer workers now is storing up poorer retired pensioners in the future. Older voters who are insulated took a gamble on brexit. Breaking that cycle is important and necessary.

Question and answer

Current drags on UK growth are dysfunctional housing market, poor infrastructures and planning system.  Liz Truss was right to focus on the UK poor performance and lack of growth, Tories have helped fuel that.

Housing market has become an asset that sucks money from more productive things. Bursting that bubble requires slowly decreasing prices, needs bold tax reform and changing incentives.

Infrastructure like roads, homes and other services needs to be built. In order to sustain the current growing population or even aging population. At the same time

Planning reform that allows stuff to built takes forever to build anything in the UK due locals blocking. Cities unable to expand due green belt or locals blocking developments. Sometimes good reason for delays, like environment issues or flooding concerns.

Politicans are reflecting what voters tell them they want. Often that is dangerous and contradictory. Leaving many good set of policies in the bad sell pile. Channelling Cameron here with some hard truths that are unpopular could allow us to break that cycle. Does mean breaking the long term hold certain groups of voters have over politics. The planets sake rebuilding the system is needed. Otherwise the planet may give us giant shock and even bigger disruption.

Dysfunctional British parliament is a symptom of the British voters contradictory desires. Liz Truss asked the right question but gave the wrong answers. World is growing older and UK won’t remain attractive problems remain.

Rishi Sunak has become prime minister, a boring fiscal conservative. Similar instincts to the rest of his party but is inexperienced. At times he can be robotic and geeky, viewed as highly competent. Boring with a hint of dull is back in fashion. Boris promoted Rishi, hoping the treasury would be under n10 thumb. As it turns out treasury had other ideas and power remained untouched. Boris declined and Rishi climbed in terms of influence. Rishi was one of the first senior ministers to leave helping to oust Boris from power. In many ways, Rishi is a traditional conservative. Boris’s 2019 election coalition is different to traditional blue voters. Similar in being homeowners but they want more state intervention.

Pressure on political services means more demand for higher spending. Liz Truss asked the right questions but got the answers wrong. More growth would reduce the tax burden, policies needed for that require a mandate. UK badly needs planning reform and other supply side reforms. Not every reform is anti-worker. Bold radical tax reform is also needed to fund public services. Changes require need a mandate that Rishi lacks. Therefore, a general election is required but first Tories need to understand what they want to do. So far looks like more of the same. 

Both main parties have an opportunity. Only question is do they want to take it and change the direction the UK is heading in.

Liz Truss has resigned as PM.

Therefore, became the shortest reigning British Prime minister in history. Elected by the party membership, a mandate that was different to the 2019 conservative manifesto. Certainly, you would carefully plan what changes to do. Deeply inspired by free-market think tanks based on Tufton street. Toxic influence has poisoned British politics for years, markets firmly rejected it. Theories from Tufton street failed, U-turn was forced but the damage was already done. Instead, Truss decided to run headfirst into the brick wall. Normally you build consensus to govern, Lizz Truss tried to force things past parliament.

The whole platform went up in smoke, followed by a series of train wrecks. As it turns out she was deeply inexperienced and out of her depth for the top job. Unforced errors reduced her time further in downing street. The pain was accelerated by her own arrogance. The real tragedy she never took responsibility, and failed to learn from Boris Johnson’s own arrogance. A golden girl of the party grassroots failed basic lessons about politics. She never really had a big support base and ignored how important party management would be. Series of unforced errors, bad theory and total failure to understand how to get things done.

She is in office but without any real power. History won’t view her kindly and her political career is now over. The Halloween budget is most likely going to be pushed back. A new prime minister only having 3 days to sign off a budget is unlikely.

*Events moved quickly and I was thinking this morning she would stay a bit longer. Turns out lettuce does have a longer shelf life compared to her.