Category: Journal

David’s Journal entries

Journal, Labour, Politics

What does polling tell us about next election?

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What does polling tell us about next election?

The answer is not much but does give an idea of the direction. Support declines during this period of time and increasing again when any election happens. However not always certain who going to get that increase in support. Polling is model based on current public opinion, snapshot showing the direction of travel. Any model is subject to margin of error, most of the time you land in the middle. Don’t know is high without any election in sight, more Tory leaning voters who don’t know about 20%. Hyper focus of any election causes people to decide. 

The most likely outcome of next general election, Tory majority smaller than 80. Boris is the glue holding together the Tory majority, one of the reasons behind the decline. Past biases have been reforged; most voters don’t blame Boris but the party. Danger is the feeling loss, sense of grief getting connected to the party after covid.  Toxic party brand coming back would be hard to shake off. Strength of Boris is slowly becoming a weakness, unpopular that now baked in. New Tory voters look similar to the old, any support looks conditional on Boris leadership. Story and message for the Tories exists and voters have general idea what they stand for. Recent events have made some question that belief in Boris. Not willing to abandon the party just yet, patience is draining away. Negative feelings around Boris are starting to settle in. Now just as unpopular as Corbyn was during 2018. No answers yet if that matters. 

Any Labour polling leads mask a complicated picture. Don’t know make any margin of error way bigger than normal. When almost 1/4 of any sample group don’t know and top of swing voters. Starts to get difficult how to produce any polling without wild errors at play. Most voters have negative view of Labour party brand, don’t think they could run things any better. They are clueless about Keir, most not having any opinion on him. Covid is not normal times at all, most voters form some view on leaders of a party within months. Last time this happened was with David Cameron, quickly made himself known during 2007/2008. Labour been flooding the airwaves with policy just nobody is listening. Danger here is without any clear message, voters create that message themselves. Left has tried many times the same message, never working. Bit of humble pie is required here, learning from what the Tories do right and Labour does badly. Voters don’t like insults towards the party they supported, not going to win people over calling them Satan. Lack of positive message about last decade makes it sound like labour failure not winning power. Badly needs an answer to what happened and the party wants moving forward. 

Loads can change but polling with the trend is hinting towards smaller Tory majority. Victory on the back what message however is anybody guess. Unlikely outcomes of hung parliament or Labour collation don’t seem realistic. Labour needs a massive recovery in England, Wales and Scotland. Danger of further decline happening, pain could be far from over yet. Sense of complacency after so much poor performance worries me. Leaning towards the party not improving at all. Major recovery is required to get close, no real evidence that is happening yet.  I don’t think the decline is over yet in certain places or seats. Long trend of decline can be traced back to the 70s. Of course, nothing is certain, politics can be volatile. 

Maybe Labour finds a voice at long last, negative feelings are seal the fate of Boris. Could end up with Labour prime minster after so long. I don’t think covid crisis is going way anytime soon, my gut feeling is voters give Boris one more shot at sorting things out. Tories have been able to reinvent party, even after being in charge for so long. 

So polling hints at smaller Tory majority and long road to recovery for Labour. 

Journal, Politics

Channel crossings death by design

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Channel crossings death by design

Thousands of people every year cross the channel, claims hundreds of lives each year.  We only care once images appear on TV screens of boats not the dead bodies. United Kingdom is outraged at people seeking a new home. The liberal’s failure to challenge dehumanising language is leaving us with blood in the water. Various policy areas, which same thing has been repeated in. Allowed are opponents to frame the debate and control the language. Common ground can be found but we can’t take purity at all cost approach. That means learning from defeat and what any opponents do well. Even from the so-called liberal defenders given little pushback. Only appear to care when it comes to internal power struggles and failing to counter the message.

Deaths do not matter just ‘illegal migration’ more ‘asylum seekers’ not human after all. Falling into this trap means we repeat the same mistakes and nothing gets better. General public are not monsters who hate everything. Drawbridge means that taking this risky unsafe route is only option left. If you want to stop unsafe crossings or reduce deaths need to provide safe routes and make it easier. Cooperation is required and some, humble pie on this British created problem. Tougher approach just leaves us with blood in the water.  These people are doing nothing illegal, want to make the UK their new home. Numbers coming to the UK are tiny, rest of Europe takes in way more people.

We frankly do not deserve them and should be ashamed of how we treat people. Asylum system places limits on what can do and often takes years to complete with perilous little support. I doubt people would enjoy having the same treatment applied to them. And climate change is likely to see way more people being pulled towards us.  Not a single successful nation in the world that does not have migration towards it. Best resource we can export is people. I never been more ashamed to be British than now.

Loads of things we can do but we refuse have decided to blame others. Instead of cooperation decided to demand and give nothing in return. Suits us more for purely political reasons to allow it to carry on. Current channel crossings are death by design and establishment don’t care. Yearly outrage yet no real desire to change policy.

Journal, Politics

What does UK polling tell us?

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What does UK polling tell us?

Polling offers you a brief snapshot, how do people feel about politics. The average British voter keeps politics away from daily life until needs to do something about it. A general rule of thumb during any general election voters minds are focused. Support starts to drift until the next cycle, people can’t remember who they supported last time. Polling offers you a brief snapshot of how people feel. The margin of error must be kept in mind but can give you a sense of direction. Noise in polling comes down to the famous don’t know.

What does the current snapshot tell you? Almost one 1/3 of voters don’t have any views on Keir Starmer. Some negative feelings from the core Tory base, Labour voters have positive feelings. The average person thinks Labour as a brand can’t lead but thinks the man in a suit can some don’t have any views of him. Safe to say the pandemic has delayed voters taking notice. During any crisis people normally give govt full support, again no poltics please we’re british. 

Compare to other opposition leaders at the same time, only David Cameron has similar numbers. Cameron held his cards close to his chest, voters listened to him during the 2008 crisis and his path to number 10 is history. During any crisis need to repeat the same message and get into voters minds. Not enough to say X party is shit, need your own story and message. Need to respond to any crisis, not policy firesale. Labour has made about 200+ policies but not a clear idea or message.

Polling is hinting towards a reduced majority and risk of hung parliament. Tories being biggest party still and Labour not being close to forming a govt alone. The margin of error means most likely looking at a smaller majority. Not certain but still possible increased majority is possible. The ground needed to be retaken is huge and need swing Tory but former Labour / lib dem voters.

Lots of work to do and hard choices need to be made. Loads of seats that last had a Labour MP back in 2001 or 2005 some further back.

Journal, Thoughts

The craze of NFT

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The craze of NFT

The last couple of years have seen blockchain-focused technology causing major crazes. Blockchain first use was cryptocurrency digital ledger, now non-fungible tokens use the same system. Both act very much like assets, markets for both being super volatile.

Meanwhile, gaming companies have pushed microtransactions as a core part of the business model. Digital sales of video games have been ballooned in size, with cosmetics items replacing expansions. Items for one game can’t be transferred. Revenues have become primarily driven by these cosmetics mainly.

Big AAA gaming companies claim customers still have a choice but to make digital items core to the experience. Rarely these days can you find a game without it. They have not been shy about it, apart from when regulators look around. Regulation of this new digital economy has yet to catch up. Dark underbelly and abuse have happened with this rapid growth some from mainstream actors. Wildwest with blockchain, criminals have milked the system using old methods.

The recent craze has been NFT or non-fungible tokens, normally digital art who the owner is stored on blockchain ledgers. Major brands have been slowly entering the market selling tokens. Gaming companies have been slowly waking up to this new source of income. Some are planning on adding it to the gaming experience. Whatever the hell that means…

A concept already exists with time-limited skins or items. The only difference is the lack of blockchain, which could in theory allow you to share it between games. Other technical solutions exist, the game shares assets between the various call of duty games.  Call of duty warzone has proved that not strictly necessary to do this. Laughable it would improve gameplay or user experience, finding it is hard to believe that the goal. We already have pre-order the game to get this cosmetic with no other way of getting it. Been massive focus on looking good to show off to your friends.

Gaming companies are chasing NFT due to seeing huge potential revenues, they have been abusing loopholes for years now. Hoping this craze leads to nothing but I fear the worse. This could be the next step something that is already here and possible. 

Journal, Thoughts

Everybody is terrible?

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Everybody is terrible?

Easier for people to recall negative memories over positive ones. Part of the reason why negative news stories get attention. Human nature designed to keep us safe from the same danger. This does however end up clouding decision making. Some great insights can be found in Thinking fast and slow by Daniel Kahneman. Book called lord of the files covers the idea everybody can be awful. The main idea from the book that everybody can be evil. A real-life example that inspired the book was rather different. Group of boys all worked together to survive. Somebody broke a bone the boys carried him around.

The majority of people are not acting out against each other. Most people are hard-working and follow the law. Of course, things not black and white, some grey areas but on average we not that terrible. Society has become desensitization always expecting the worse from people. Unfortunately, this does have policy consequences, extremes are seen as normal. Happens all the time with doctors or social care workers. Sometimes feeding on worse impulses resulting in poorer outcomes. Recent example UK government expected people not to follow any lockdown. Refused to consider it as an option, delaying the later response. In reality, a big chunk of the people acted first avoiding unnecessary behaviour.

Need to be careful not to get stuck in thinking everybody is terrible. Most people live within the grey zone, not angels or demons try to avoid causing harm. People can make poor choices based due to products that help exploit people. We don’t directly see it happen. Good example is cheap food production, helped by pushing down conditions for HGV drivers and pay. Most people have short memories when comes to these stories. Another example would be climate change, you don’t directly feel the impact but somebody else does.

Role to be played here for strong institutions and legal framework to help protect people. Fixing undesired outcomes by making them not viable. Group think that we are uncorrputable better than other nations as slow decline happens. Reducing or damaging rules or institutions as general voter looks away is the worse outcome. Voter apathy may suit some people but does long term hard to fix damage.

“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing,”

Self reflection is required and we should ask tough questions. Needs to be some serious debate about what sort of nation we want to be. Sometimes that means making unpopular but neccessary choices that benefit people.

Journal, Thoughts

Grief: Tigra last snuggle

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I never truly had a pet, most are family pets that I have helped pitch in to care for. Cats are often described as aloof, from my experience that is not true. Forming deep social bonds with their owners that not always obvious. They provide companionship acting as a blanket and support. Start to learn how they act and when things are wrong. Both feeding off each other.

Tigra was a sassy little cat who was curious and determined, would always punch above her weight. At first I never really connected to her but soon she stole my heart. Slowly becoming a companion to me, during my lowest point last year she helped save me. Would follow me around, lick and wash me sometimes. Snuggle up to me and sleep right next to me. Always wanting to inspect what I was having for lunch or anything new. She enjoyed heights loved to climb into trouble, once had to climb up a tree to get her. She would always be there for me, waiting for me to return home. Waking up would be greeted by a furry warm alarm clock. I have so many stories of her and thankful for the time we had together.

Last almost 24 hours I been waiting for her to return. Keep waiting to hear that meow and look over my shoulder for her.  Waiting for her to appear out of nowhere seeking the attention. Going to miss so much about her, calling her with meows in response. Dozens of meows which meant different things.

Last snuggle going to stay with me, as you numbed my foot. She gone now to heaven, after suffering from serious unfixable pain. Joining the other family pets together in peace and with my parents. Leaving behind one confused half sister and a family who loved every moment with her.  Goodnight Tigra 🙁 rest in peace

Journal

Fighting covid

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Fighting covid

The world wants to beat the covid-19 pandemic more cooperation is required. Everybody needs to pool resources together with health institutions capable of doing the job. Understanding how any respiratory virus spreads. This group of viruses are easy to spread and difficult to stop. Spreading by hijacking water droplets created by breathing. Basic hygiene measures alone are not enough. Only been able to eradicate two viruses nothing like this, suppressing covid is the most likely outcome. Rather basic four steps to getting that outcome, but in practice on a global level difficult to complete.

First, identify the virus.
Second, contain any outbreak.
Third, limit any mutations.
Fourth global vaccination program.

Identify the virus.

Medical breakthroughs in modern times have centred around DNA sequencing. 
Letting you map out how any disease works, helping understand how it functions. 
Massive investment has flowed into DNA sequencing programs. Western nations have the expertise, majority of global testing capacity, UK hosting the majority. Building a global early warning system to identify viruses was happening. Just Covid-19 happened before the system was ready. Everybody needs to do the heavy lifting, and any system would have resilenced at the heart of it. A strong case for more funding and resources with cooperation when comes to sequencing. Finding the health problem before it gets out of control. A serious lack of communication between everybody created a disjointed response. The virus had been running wild before anybody realised what was happening. This was the first modern respiratory virus that turned into a pandemic. Failure to spot it has created a giants series of health problems, the world needs to clean up.

Creating a network of regional health institutions, linked up to the global health body. Everybody in the chain has the power and resources with built-in resilience against global supply problems.

Containment

Any outbreak needs to be contained, need preparation and resources to rapidly act. Some decry the cost involved but known costs are far lower compared to unknown. In some ways, these mirror, the climate change debate. Letting the public health crisis get out of control causes massive damage to human lives, even causing death. We don’t know the long-term health impacts caused by this virus. The early stages of any outbreak containing any health crisis are easy, just needs strong enforcement and targeting the right areas. Need to suppress the outbreak so it is easier to control. Cooperation is needed to help contain any virus. Regional institutions need to come together on a global stage. Institutions like WHO needs more bite with cooperation on a global scale. WHO needs to change, flawed by design and unable to do the job. The world did not plan around something like covid and weak links in the chain are causing huge problems in containing it.

European nations planned around flu pandemics, proving inefficient. The focus was on basic hygiene measures like hand washing using soap. Indeed most prepared have discovered a virus out of control. Asian nations had faced respiratory diseases Sars and Mers. Similar to Covid preparations were done against similar threats. Turns out respiratory virus are significantly difficult to deal with. Asian societies that coped used social distancing measures, face masks and strict quarantine practices. Bunch more measures like strict trace and tracking program designed to find outbreaks and contain it. Clear public health messages with support provided to anybody impacted. Air travel was limited and quarantine for all travellers coming in or out. Everybody is finding covid-19 hard to control. Failure to contain it has resulted in massive headache. Colossal failure was not just shutting down global air travel sooner. 

Problem confronting the world presently is virus is widly out of control how achieve you contain it? Face masks, space between people helps to cut the viral loads. Basic hygience measures all help together. Medical supplies supply chain needs to be more resilence and spare slack is needed. Gamble is vaccination programs help contain it here and worry about air travel later. 

Limit mutations

The longer the virus stays out in the wild more mutations can happen. Scientists are extremely worried about mutations, lower efficacy rate causes severe problems for vaccinations. Small percent increase means more patients in hopsital on average.  Failure to vaccinate the world in time, means living with it. Possible that it becomes more devastating, more resistant to track and cope with. Possible turn into the flu-like annual event, with unknown health impacts constant flow of infections. The concern is this helps breed unknown type of virus that even worse. Tolerating things run hot could result in even worse health outcomes. 

Global vaccination

Vaccinations are effecitve against current mutations but that won’t last forever. Letting it burn widly out of control means each mutation could limit the process of any vaccinations. All that time and energy wasted setting you back to step 1. Global vaccination program is needed now starting most vulnerable first, everybody else next. Initially assume some severe risks that could deliver massive global impacts. In the present circumstances, the world has to contain something out in the wild. Letting the virus burn like a fire all around the world and hoping vaccinates alone will liberate us is foolish. 

Complacency is what helped cause this disaster more of it won’t resolve it. Nature have a nasty way of surprising us. 

Journal, Politics

No politics please we’re British

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The British public doesn’t pay any real attention to daily politics. Westminster in return does not pay any real attention to the public. Makes me think about this quote.

We are what we eat or you are what you eat

A very brief period of courting with various suitors seeking attention. One night stand happens, the result of the general election is called we forget. Don’t bother to inform ourselves, we have more knowledge about the next kettle good compared to political choices ahead. People go back to their daily lives ignoring politics until something happens that barely registering. To make matters worse even the leaders are ignorant of how governance works. Failing to understand or know that does not work like a car. Can pull the lever all you want but things don’t suddenly happen. Even the political class has no clue how things work or run. 

Both sides not understanding each other, each side thinking the worse about the other. High levels of ignorance and mistrust, that has been present for decades. Important to understand that last point, current feelings are nothing new just loyalty has declined. Agreement between everybody is rather messy. Most people don’t have a fixed ideology viewpoint, some lean but most are flexible. Of course, sometimes voters do want conflicting things. A good example is higher spending lower taxes, nobody has found a way to do that. Centre ground is a majority within the grand scheme of things. Voters want to be wooed, the common idea must appease voters but the problem here is that not what people want. For decades politicians have appeased to very worse instincts often presented as the only way to win over the centre-ground. Forget the base that already exists chasing after imagined voters.  

Once a narrative sets in often hard to shake it. The majority fail to educate themselves, history is written by the winners, not losers. Looking at the data Labour lost the retired not the working class. Yet the idea Labour lost the working class or spent all the money took the whole. Weak on crime when record backlog of court cases and lower amount of justice being done. Harsh sentences mean nothing if access to justice is restricted or limited. Education and history are important to help understand how we got here. I was shocked how we got here but once you consider everything it does make sense. My big worry is failing to learn the right lessons and not holding firm. Seeking imagined voters failing to hold on to what base we have. Deeply worried nobody has the right answers. 

A society that is ignorant, lacks the knowledge wonder why voters pick the unfit. Some people take pride in not thinking. I do understand that busy daily lives Westminster is alienly focusing on nonsense bullshit. Hope things can change and the system is repaired. Does require understand everything before coming up with solutions. 

Journal

Happy Pride month 2021

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Happy Pride month 2021

Every June LGBT community celebrates Pride month. Identify has expanded and the community population has grown over the decades. Attitudes have changed with people becoming more accepted. Still, more to do but now it’s time to celebrate everything unique about us all. I’m going to spend the month enjoying some pride classics. 

Journal

Cryptocurrency – I don’t see it working

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Cryptocurrency – I don’t see it working

Cryptocurrency does not act as a currency more like a deeply violate asset. The idea of the digital coin started back in the early 1980s, idea was implemented but failed during the 90s. The modern version however has found some cult success. Everybody knows the name Bitcoin born during 2008/09s. Dozens of clones exist each with different ideas driving them. Ideas behind it are a rejection that money needs to be issued by banks. Exchange rates should not have the central bank controlling them. Any company can create contracts as long parties agree. Promise that it could act like a currency has failed to materialize.

Unlike normal currencies, value is not backed by any institutions. Result violate price that all coins share, sudden market drops happen loads. The problem quite simply comes down to the overall design. Any currency is created by solving cryptography mathematics equations. Finite supply to due how the equation, the public ledger is used to record everything. The whole system is anonymous, encrypted but transactions are recorded. Recording everything is a major data storage nightmare. Giant database that is ripe to being hacked. The system has twisted itself into knots, claiming to save us all.

Like physical mining, energy is required and resources to create it. The computing power needed to mine it needs rare earth metals and fossil fuels. For something with no real value, it has a massive environmental impact. White tech bros who promise the world and don’t have a clue promote it. Fluctuations in price mean one day that dream car is yours, next day only half it. Blockchain the technology behind the ledger is meant to be useful yet nobody has found a real use for it. A credit rating system built off it could in theory work. 

The financial sector could be shaken up but creating new asset won’t do it. Making it easier for new competition to enter the market makes sense. Of course, need to make sure the cost not too high but investors are protected. What investors want right now are safe assets not risky ones. The trend is just a bunch of snake oil around some worthless encyrption. Regulators are keeping a close eye on it and for good reason. 

I think the whole thing one giant waste of time. Better off investing money in anything that has real value.