Category: Journal

David’s Journal entries

Politics

Liz Truss has resigned

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Liz Truss has resigned as PM.

Therefore, became the shortest reigning British Prime minister in history. Elected by the party membership, a mandate that was different to the 2019 conservative manifesto. Certainly, you would carefully plan what changes to do. Deeply inspired by free-market think tanks based on Tufton street. Toxic influence has poisoned British politics for years, markets firmly rejected it. Theories from Tufton street failed, U-turn was forced but the damage was already done. Instead, Truss decided to run headfirst into the brick wall. Normally you build consensus to govern, Lizz Truss tried to force things past parliament.

The whole platform went up in smoke, followed by a series of train wrecks. As it turns out she was deeply inexperienced and out of her depth for the top job. Unforced errors reduced her time further in downing street. The pain was accelerated by her own arrogance. The real tragedy she never took responsibility, and failed to learn from Boris Johnson’s own arrogance. A golden girl of the party grassroots failed basic lessons about politics. She never really had a big support base and ignored how important party management would be. Series of unforced errors, bad theory and total failure to understand how to get things done.

She is in office but without any real power. History won’t view her kindly and her political career is now over. The Halloween budget is most likely going to be pushed back. A new prime minister only having 3 days to sign off a budget is unlikely.

*Events moved quickly and I was thinking this morning she would stay a bit longer. Turns out lettuce does have a longer shelf life compared to her.

Journal, Politics

Circus of malaise, Lizz Truss’s premiership

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Circus of malaise, Lizz Truss Premiership

Long 6 weeks of malaise

A strong feeling of malaise is starting to set in. Unease about the current direction, sense of crisis in the air. Unhappy before things get tough and worse is certainly to come. Tory’s rule comes down to the media, the market, and mortgage holders’ support. Normally a budget doesn’t move the market, but Lizz Truss’ first budget doomed her premiership. Sacking senior civil service officials, refusing to release forecasts, and trying to cherry-pick forecasts. What little political capital she had was gone. Overnight she has caused low mortgage rates to disappear off the market. Causing UK borrowing costs to rapidly increase overnight. The reaction was corrosive, and credibility melted away. While further comments this was just the start caused further damage. Reality forced a huge climb down, destroying everything Lizz Truss said she would do. Feels like the dying days of a prime minister over the first 6 weeks.

Act 2 of the circus

Annoying off every single wing of the party. Straightaway you can smell blood in the air for further U-turns. Bunch of unpopular bills that are due in parliament. Unnecessary authoritarian power grabs, trying to create a mountain from a molehill. Like her predecessor, unforced errors have compounded her already tough job. The Labour party has created a trap. the prime minister decided to trigger it evidently making it worse. Therefore, forcing a none blinding vote on having a debate about fracking. Heavy-handed approach with mixed messages resulted in bullying, forcing MPs to vote with govt. A junior minister floated the idea it was a matter of confidence in the prime minister. Rumours flooded the chamber’s chief whip indeed deputies had resigned. Aftermath this morning is making the party even angrier at number 10.  Could have walked away from the vote.

Drama in Westminster cost of living crisis for rest

At the present time, Lizz Truss is likely to stay in power. Another key point party is desperate to avoid a lengthy leadership race. Over 12 MPs have publicly declared the prime minister should go. As a result, privately MPs have started to discuss what happens next. The lack of a unity candidate is keeping Lizz Truss in power for now. Only 10 days until the UK budget, the prime minister makes the final decision on signing things off. Especially important at the moment, as markets don’t like instability. The cost of living crisis is happening outside of Westminster, feels like a million miles away. The government needs to provide more support but is unwilling to do that. Public opinion has started to change, voters rarely take notice. The first thing to remember impossible to recover once negative impressions are formed.

Given these points matter of when, and who takes the crown. Kingdom in crisis and leadership is desired for the tough choices ahead.

Journal, Thoughts

Poetry – How do you really feel and Emotional islands

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Normally I don’t write much poetry, here two poems. I had fun writing both of theses.

How do you really feel?

Sadness hidden behind the eyes
Cheerful smiling and joking, just a lie
Anxiety and depression close friends
Lying in bed with no motivation, oh you’re just lazy

Nobody really asks how you feel
Nobody really knows the self-isolation
Nobody really questions
Nobody listening

Freedom of choice is an illusion
Trapped in a prison of your own mind
Worse fears are the guards
Walls are your body
Warden is your brain

Tools of support in limited supply
Waiting waiting unknown wait time
Couple of hours over a short course
Not enough and too many waiting for too little

No, follow up no questions
Forgotten until the next referral
The cycle repeats until something gives
Giving up the gift of life for a sweet release

Never clean always leaving behind
Loved ones, unfinished chores
Why did nobody ask
How do you really feel?

Emotional islands

Emotions are like the weather
A powerful force of nature
You can’t control it only adopt
You can never be fully prepared
Dark sad clouds give way
Light happy clouds give way

Exposed to the endless cycle
Don’t forget that it passes
Don’t get rainbows without rain
Don’t get happiness without sadness
You are not an island, not alone
Day and night, we all connected

Politics

Mini budget, making of a financial crisis

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Mini budget, making of a financial crisis

UK government announced a mini-budget, part of it would be measures to deal with rising energy costs.  Details finally become public, universal blanket support with average cost capped. Business energy costs again average price is limited, 6 months compared to 2 years for the public. Idea behind it is incentive to reduce energy usage.

Energy generators have been making record profits, estimated to be about £170 billion. Reason is gas prices being linked to general energy unit costs. Some producers have seen no raising costs but huge profits as prices rise. Windfall tax on excess profits and delinking gas prices from energy generation would make sense but that was ruled out. Govt intervention was needed as the market became dysfunctional. Global problem as energy supplies and high demand pushed up prices.

Mini-budget proposed went far further than just the energy support package. At least we got some more details but for many businesses already too late. Normally markets barely move, markets do listen and react. Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng plan for growth was unfunded tax cuts for the rich, higher borrowing and limited details on supply style reforms. Kwasi economic credibility was destroyed by his own budget and actions. That not normal at all and unlikely to calm markets if he stays in post. UK is now facing weaker pound which means higher inflation and higher borrowing costs. Higher inflation means higher interest rates, lowering house prices and increasing borrowing costs overall. Markets are going bake in higher prices as insurance against the risky budget ideas. Punishing and warning the government to avoid doing stupid ideas.

Supply style reforms with no real details mixed with tax cuts to boost demand. Plan for growth is going to end up reducing growth, any growth gained is wiped out. Estimates of how much growth from the reforms about 0.1%. UK is now facing further spending cuts, inflation is eating into budgets. Real easy obvious supply side reforms like reducing NHS backlogs and waiting times not on the table. Nothing to boost skills or training. Nothing on childcare nothing on well anything but tax cuts for the few. UK could borrow to fund these things, apart from tax cuts. Borrowing costs would go up but not by that much.

UK is facing a toxic mix of poor policy choices, under funding of public services and trade barriers with the EU. Everything that is happening right now is by choice. Planning reform was promised again but no real details. Against this backdrop UK wants to scrap EU laws it voted to keep. Reaction against the UK budget was not due one policy idea but all of it. Being forced to pick what bits you want to keep but can’t have it all. Liz Truss now faces a painful U turn against her policy platform, she could ignore it but pay a heavy price. UK is now likely to go into a deep recession without further support unlikely to recover in time for a general election. Creating the conditions for defeat and just from one short budget. Bank of England had to step in to protect pension funds. 

Lizz Truss should own this mess and quickly learn from it. Speaking this morning and doubling down has not helped. Long list of people who think UK needs to change course but only two voices matter on the subject. Three weeks into the job and not making a good start.

Journal, Thoughts

Death of Queen Elizabeth ii

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Death of Queen Elizabeth ii

Queen Elizabeth ii passed away Thursday afternoon, 8th of September 2022. For 7 decades she was a symbol of continuity, a source of stability and order. Kingdom in turmoil the British public would turn to her, crown soft power and hold remained strong under her reign. I was in denial her reign would end, she had become an ethereal figure in British life. Reign that saw the birth of the commonwealth, modern Britain trying to find its place in the world. Just like when she came to the throne the kingdom is in turmoil, with economy and politics with a sense of malaise. 

Unlikely to see another Queen during my lifetime and reign as long. Remarkable women whose sense of duty and values are lacking these days. Of course, we never truly knew who the Queen was, mystery gave the crown its strength. She did care about her subjects, serving them and listening. Her death did cause me a tear, reflecting on my own grief. 

I wish King Charles the best of luck, got big shoes to fill. I do have a republican lean but I can see the value of the royal family.  In my own way must mourn her passing, the end of an era. She has reminded me to be my best self and that public duty is important. 

Paul Keating former Australian prime minister

In the 20th century, the self became privatised, while the public realm, the realm of the public good, was broadly neglected.

Queen Elizabeth II understood this and instinctively attached herself to the public good against what she recognised as a tidal wave of private interest and private reward. And she did this for a lifetime. Never deviating.

She was an exemplar of public leadership, married for a lifetime to political restraint, remaining always, the constitutional monarch.

To the extent that an hereditary monarch can ever reflect the will or conscience of a people, in the case of Britain, Queen Elizabeth II assimilated a national consciousness reflecting every good instinct and custom the British people possessed and held to their heart.

In a 70-year reign, she was required to meet literally hundreds of thousands of officials – presidents, prime ministers, ministers, premiers, mayors and municipal personalities.

It was more than one person should ever have been asked to do.

But Queen Elizabeth II’s stoicism and moralism welded her to the task and with it, the idea of monarchy.

Her exceptionally long, dedicated reign is unlikely to be repeated; not only in Britain, but in the world generally.

With her passing her example of public service remains with us as a lesson in dedication to a lifelong mission in what she saw as the value of what is both enduringly good and right.

Journal, Thoughts

The slow pace of change

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The slow pace of change

Change is slow and often incremental. The start and end often end up in history books, the journey is often seen in a modern view. Sometimes the journey is never discussed only the start and end points. Social attitudes move with the times, for example, society accepts gay people compared to 50 years ago. Result of persistent campaigning, the law is often slow to catch up. All of the above the result of gradual change, reforms happened followed by further reforms. The colourful history behind it is a bunch of important events along the way.

Of course, I have not covered anything and missing loads out from the picture. Could argue that I’m being ahistorical here and persistent radical action or radical legislation has done more. Thing is that really ignores the journey, without compromises none of this would be possible. A picture is far bigger than just radical action or legislation. An advocate of gradual change in positions of power helped play a big role here.

Here are three examples national health service, voting rights and weekend/working hours.

National health service story about access to healthcare.  NHS is the legacy of past healthcare infrastructure joining together due to war.

Voting rights and weekend/working hours legacy of civil liberties expanding. Voting rights result from various movements coming together, protests and riots. The weekend is unique here due coming from working habits and campaigns shaping it. 

Britain’s first hospital St Bartholomew’s Hospital was founded in 1123, providing healthcare for the poor. Free care was limited to hospitals or workhouses.  Workhouses often did medical care but left much to be desired for. Poor care resulted in many campaigns leading to reforms, against untrained staff in unsuitable wards. Short summary healthcare was unregulated for a very long time and disorganised, access was limited. Poor medical care was commonly resulting in death. 

English poor laws can be traced back to 1587–1598, medical care was offered. Access to healthcare was patchy, Poor patients suffered from substandard care. Medical science improved more hospitals opened up, and experiences got shared about what worked and did not. National insurance act of 1911 Insurance gave workmen entitlement to medical care, and women and children were not covered. The idea that health insurance needed to be extended to dependents become a consensus but war stalled it.

Bertrand Dawson was commissioned in 1919 by Christopher Addison, to report on medical care. An Interim Report on the Future Provision of Medical and Allied Services, laying down plans for primary and secondary health care centres. Private schemes existed that provided health care.   Local authorities ran hospitals for local ratepayers, charitable voluntary hospitals did offer free treatment. Local govt act 1929 allowed local authorities to run services, not just ones authorised by the poor laws. English poor laws helped create the system still used today. Poor laws that funded that system were replaced in 1948.

Socialist Health Association campaigned for the creation of NHS, founded in the 1930s. British Medical Association pamphlet 1938 followed in the same footsteps. War in 1938 delayed reforms but centralised state-run Emergency Hospital Service meant reform was needed. Voluntary hospitals now depended on government support. Rather obvious that bringing voluntary hospitals under a centralised system needed to happen.  Labour started to plan and think about the universal health care system. During the 1945 Labour govt, Beveridge’s report shaped a series of key reforms. Healthcare became an important plank in that program. 

NHS was the result of incremental change.

Voting rights

Members of parliament were picked by the King until 1265. After those members would be elected by various counties. The Knights of the Shire Act in 1432, established the right to vote for members. Only to owners of real property who paid taxes to the Crown of at least X in value. The Reform Act of 1832 expanded voting rights to freeholder men above the age of 21. Chartism working class movement happened between 1838 and 1857 demanding the right to vote. Women’s suffrage started in 1830s, and took until 1918 and 1928. Women had the right to vote before it was removed in 1835.

Further reform act 1867 enfranchised householders or renters, including many working-class voters for the first time. Further reforms saw everything start to get standardised. Representation of the People Act in 1918, removed property ownership requirements for men but women could vote if they owned property. Representation of the People Act 1928 removed the property requirement for women. The age to vote has been reduced with time, representation of the People Act 1969 and reforms after have reduced it to 18. That is just a brief overview, violent and non-violent protests happened.

Voting rights were the result of incremental change

Weekend/working hours are far more modern in terms of history. Legalisation reduced working hours; weekends came from campaigns. Uneven at first having to overcome various traditions. An unofficial version of the weekend did exist in the 1870s. Some workers already did it. Religious bodies argued for it, trade unions played a part. The weekend as we know it was established in the 1930s.

Working hours can trace that back to 1901, 1908, and 1919, modern working hours 48-hour week in 1921 were loads of updates and reforms after that.

Once again incremental change

Of course, I have not covered anything. Persistent action slowly builds up before causing change to happen. Social attitudes add to the pressure. All of the above the result of gradual change, reforms happened followed by further reforms. Continual pressure for radical change, caused compromises to happen. Without moderates in positions of power, nothing would get done. We often forget how far we come. At pride, I was reminded of how fast society can move. None of this is the result being passive, active campaigning slowly moving people’s minds. 

My big worry right now is we don’t have the time to wait for action on climate change. Signs are positive but loads of work to do, slowly running out of the road. 

 

Politics

Tory leadership fight fantasy vs fantasy

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Tory leadership fight fantasy vs fantasy

Boris Johnson was the answer, now the question is who replaces him. Boris’s administration suffered various external shocks and was rocked by scandals. An opportunity was wasted to reshape Britain in Boris’s image. Elected on a vague promise, unable to make decisions. Shocks combined with poor judgement burned away any capital. Sexual assault allegations against a deputy whip, Boris doubled down pledging support. Minsters resigned in protest, causing the downfall. Ended the same way it started, a chaotic political mess.

Eight candidates want the job of prime minister. Against the backdrop of strong economic headwinds, a poisoned chalice for whoever takes over. Recovery in disposable incomes is unlikely before any election. A toxic mix of inflation, public service backlog and chaotic governance.

  1. Rishi Sunak
  2. Penny Mordaunt
  3. Tom Tugendhat
  4. Liz Truss
  5. Suella Braverman
  6. Jeremy Hunt
  7. Kemi Badenoch
  8. Nadhim Zahawi

Sunak’s pitch is traditional conservativism focused on fiscal discipline and competence. Reluctance to provide support during a cost-of-living crisis. Sunak was in charge of the economy; his pragmatism was limited.  Show himself to be rather naive, making obvious mistakes. Old school conservativism but unwilling to answer problems ahead.

Mordaunt is heir to Boris, whatever that platform was. Reactionary conservativism is relaxed about certain things but wants to reshape the world. Her problem is being naive, similar to Boris making mistakes. A chameleon that changes all the time, can she make unpopular choices we don’t know. Liar at heart she say anything and double down.

Tugendhat’s pitch return to one nation, a clean break from the past 3 years. Bit of everything, modern caring touch. Mix of small C social liberal but near the centre.

Truss heir to thatcherism, unable to grasp what that looks like. Rose tinted glasses view of Thatcher has created by accident a caricature.

Braverman stereotype Tory, caricature of the party.

Hunt small C one nation Tory, broke the NHS and now wants to fix it. Trying to appeal to couple different groups.

Badenoch honest Tory who small C but taking a traditional view on things.

Zahawi promise everything to everybody, another traditional Tory.

What question is the party membership trying to answer. Based on the candidates, sense of complacency and lack of desire to tackle the problems. No real debate about inflation or energy prices, just fantasy against fantasy.

UK faces a long period of stagnation, both political and economic. Internal party politics have caused brexit, threat of a trade war is still high. Uncertain world older homeowners and retired have avoided the shocks. Party has been ruthless in protecting the old at the cost of the young. Stable bedrock of homeowners who benefit from stagnation. Tories have little to no reason to reform the system. Older homeowners have benefited from this system. Party has stored up future problems and expects the old to vote Tory forever. 

Danger is creating poor Tory voters with wealth concentrated to the few. Many ways the Tory party is returning back to the past, party of rent seekers.

Fathers and Mother’s Day

Fathers and Mother’s Day

Every year I’m reminded of the loss of both my parents. Slowly come to terms with that loss, grief still remains strong. Love for both of them will not disappear any time soon. I can remember their voices, full of memories. Lost a part of me that day, both dates are painful memories. Unable to forget a single detail about it. Music that was played I can’t listen to it anymore without crying.

Really should seek therapy but takes weeks, time is far too limited. I don’t think a single day should be a celebration but every day. Not until something is gone do you understand just how much you miss it. I never understand the whole point of it.

Artificial marketing day is designed to sell more things. I don’t need a special day to feel connected to my parents. Hope one day I can be a parent

Economics, Journal, Politics

High inflation and low growth new normal?

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High inflation and low growth new normal?

The UK is suffering from Brexit-related inflation, supply shock energy and covid, with pent-up demand causing rising inflation, weak pound adds to the woes. Together this toxic mix is starting to lead to slow growth and high inflation. Strange mix of disinflationary and inflationary pressures, shocks to the economy.  Bank of England has few options, unable to reduce global energy inflation.

Simple narratives often the big picture. Fear is wage price spiral of the 1970s returns. That ignores the weak wage growth over the past decade, poor productivity that is plaguing UK. Major wage correction is required with big increases at the lower end. Public sector needs huge wage increases to keep staff. Already seeing some wage growth but that being outstripped by inflation. Companies finding keeping staff and hiring just as difficult. UK has far too many cars hand washes and little business investment.

Workers in the public sector are demanding higher pay or face strikes. Bank of England is warning workers not to seek higher wages or face fueling inflation. Misremembering what happened during the 1970s. Tories are stuck in thinking the answer comes from supply-side reforms when demand needs to be supported. A bunch of structural issues facing the UK, the housing market is sucking economic activity. Housing market is draining output as many are paying mortgages or funding retirement pots.

Simple narrative companies are greedy or workers are ignoring the complicated backdrop. No easy answers to solve the problems facing.

Northern Ireland protocol by design has created a sea border between it and UK. Closer alignment between the UK and EU would solve the issues. Border must be somewhere, some improvements but sea border must remain. Eurosceptic MPs are unlikely to support closer alignment, pragmatic thinking is dead. Scope for minor changes to be made but promises made for Eurosceptic can’t be kept. Most of the problems have been created by Boris Johnson’s own short-term thinking. Only cliff edges remain as solutions which lead us to a potential trade war with the EU. Not exactly smart to do during a period of high inflation with a weak pound.

Domestically Boris Johnson is weak and lacks the political capital or leadership to find a solution. Northern Ireland assembly DUP is blocking the appointment of a speaker. Local elections saw the DUP becoming the second-biggest party not the first. The government can’t be restored after a certain period election must be called again. DUP is demanding the Northern Ireland protocol be scrapped before they even consider coming back to the table. The UK is refusing protocol dispute resolution, recognizing European institutions would be toxic politics. EU position is renegotiation off the table, but the scope for changes once the UK implements the protocol in full. Without a change of leadership within Westminster, the deadlock looks safe to continue. Boris’s administration looks to be on its last legs, unlikely to command support within the commons. The only way forward looks to be reforming how the assembly works but Boris is refusing to listen to anybody.

The oil price had already been increasing, world reopening needed more oil as demand came back. Supply shock caused by covid would take years to resolve. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused energy prices to jump. Putting further pressure on supply chains, various raw materials being restricted by trade sanctions. Food prices are jumping in price, some nations are restricting exports. All of this adds to inflationary pressures facing the global economy. Energy prices rising have a disinflationary effect on demand. Growth slowing down across the world.

A weak pound causes imports to rise in price, exports should benefit but trade barriers. The labour market looks tight but ill health, and early retirement having less access to workers from the EU cause major headaches. The UK risks destroying its educated labour force with funding cuts and no retraining plan. No plan to get people back into the labour market.

Slow decline is far more likely over sudden bang but economy is looking rather sick. Wave of deregulation or supply side reforms won’t suddenly make things better. Tories no longer the party of business but stagnation suits homeowner base. High inflation could be new normal for the UK and low growth.

Journal, Politics

Governments proactive, opposition parties are reactive.

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Governments are proactive, and opposition parties are reactive.

How opposition parties react to events makes or breaks them. In politics, define yourself and risk somebody else doing that could be voters or opposition. Opposition parties are naturally reactive and need to hold power to do anything. Desperate for air time, every second counts. 

Repeat the same message and tailor it that reflect what is on our minds. Tony Blair and David Cameron, offer lessons for the opposition. Blair’s high levels of charisma allowed complex topics within the same message. Cameron used the 08-banking crash to steer the conversation toward a long-term Tory goal of cutting spending. Repeating simple yet similar messages, spending was the problem. As David Cameron, other people spend far easier target. Getting elected is the easy part, governing is the hard part. Layers of governance can take years for the policy to happen. An example would be Brexit, rushing ahead unprepared helped fuel disruption. Political disillusions formed a giant quagmire. UK is now looking at starting a trade war with the EU. Lack of serious discussions about what it means and the direction. Still years behind being able to fulfil the original agreement. Temporary delays now look more permanent. Centralised government still has many decentralised parts that don’t have direct control over. 

Civil service tries to execute the policy agenda, managers are required to get things done. Civil service needs more staff to deal with trade barriers, more friction means more paperwork. Tories have degraded UK public services and reduced the amount of spare capacity. External and internal shocks have tested the UK’s resilience. Civil service expanded to cope with the challenges. Now they face budget cuts and a bigger workload. Best and brightest with knowledge start leaving just dead wood. Result politicians find it even more difficult to get things done. 

Most people won’t notice the disruption and upheaval until it reaches breaking point. They do take note if hospitals or power supplies stop working. Queuing at airports or traffic jams at the border. The key points most voters are comfortable, the cost-of-living crisis is a shared problem. A major fall in income however can be weathered but still noticed. Anybody who is not comfortable is fucked, sudden fall in income can’t weather that. Economic shock wave shakes the whole system causing further pain. Can’t buy as much coffee and don’t need as many coffee shops. Poorest start to cut back on essential items, do you eat or heat your home. Party in power can be proactive in supporting the economy. Boris has decided to be reactive, and let a problem become big before acting. 

Rising demand for oil due to pent-up demand caused by covid. Global supply chains have ongoing issues, increasing prices as a result. Covid still causing turmoil, unlikely to end any time soon. Inflation has been climbing around the world, climate change is at a tipping point. Russia’s war with Ukraine has caused a huge energy supply shock, and won’t be ending any time soon. Headwinds are flowing stronger further disruption is certain. Long-term structural problems remain unsolved and won’t be easy to fix. A plan for all these challenges is lacking and no long-term thinking is is at the heart of n10. 

British politics got semi unpopular government, doing unpopular things. Public trusts it to keep things working. They don’t trust Boris Johnson, anything linked to him is toxic. A posh party that is good at management, somewhat out of touch. The danger is past negative ideas about the party start to appear in people’s minds. Party brand is strong, trusting it but past biases remain. Party is rather good at finding a direction and ruthless when comes to winning. Waiting for the Tory party to fail is like waiting for a lottery win.

Labour has the opposite problem, weak brand and neutral views on the leader. Don’t want to be a hostage to fortune makes the job even harder. Unable to steer the conversation Labour found itself in a trap of its own making. Burnt by various defeats refusing to reframe the last decade. Parts of the party have decided to refight old battles and not notice this different opponent. Keir needs an answer that lets him reclaim the centre-ground and offer something that people could see as improving things. Any idea needs a clear united message or narrative about the last decade. Internal opponents complain about being too right or left-wing and lack any answers. The danger here is clear voters decide what the party stands for before it can set out its stalls. Party is not trusted and voters won’t listen. Rebuilding that trust with limited air time is tough. 

Historic Labour seats that look similar to swing Tory seats with retired homeowners in old working-class communities. Income poor but asset rich thanks to homeownership. Traditional Tory seats are income rich being asset rich, mainly homeowners. Tories are suffering from small C traditional liberals moving away from the party. The narrative mainly focuses on Labour woes here, first Scotland followed by huge numbers of seats in the mix. These seats form part of a major realignment in British politics. Labour has become the party of urban liberal voters, a party of the new professional working class. Tories have become the party of homeowners, older with some small c liberals. Returning to old party battlegrounds in modern times. Voters are becoming far more volatile, old safe seats are changing and new marginal seats are appearing. Both parties are protected due to first past the post for now. Party loyalty is breaking down, swing voters matter more and own that centre-ground. Homeowners with mortgage holders have become a powerful bloc. Renters don’t have the same size in terms of population and don’t turn out. 

Doing nothing and hoping to win by default, not exactly going to cope with having to do unpopular things. Tories have a nasty habit of winning, this time around decided not to help with falling incomes. Learning from each defeat, reshaping the party feeling like something different. Boris won on the idea of getting Brexit done and improving public services. People saw Boris, not another posh Tory who did not care or would not get stuff done.

The two most likely outcomes for the next election are a reduced majority or a hung parliament. Labour needs to lay the groundwork or risk further defeats. Never let a crisis go to waste, Tories are drifting. Won’t stay aimless without a direction for much longer. The electoral map is huge a challenge, Labour lacks a real loyal base. Party needs long-term Tory voters, swing Tory lean to win seats. 2017 was the result of some rather volatile voting patterns in unique times. Britain needs the Labour party to react instead of being a passive bystander. Damage the Tories have done means it is timing for a fightback, the desire to win is lacking. 

Not easy being a party of opposition you’re reacting to events. Governments are proactive, opposition parties are reactive. One side is fixated on internal battles trying to keep hold of power. Party gate has destroyed trust in Boris. Doing whatever is required to keep in office. Screw running the nation unfit Boris needs to stay prime minister at any cost. The inmates are running the asylum. labour lacks the confidence to say what needs to be said. Failed to make an impact within the hostile environment it faces. 

Easy to feel disheartened and a potential trade war with the EU not going to help.