Category: Journal

David’s Journal entries

Politics

Double election in May 2024?

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Double election in May 2024?

I’m starting to think the next UK general election will be in May 2024. The date makes sense when you consider the current environment. A Conservative party is an unhappy place at the moment, drifting without any new ideas and doing the bare basics. Exhausted after 13 years of ruling, deeply tired after dealing with crisis after crisis. Party unity has broken down, infighting is common sometimes the party line is forgotten. The sniping between ministers or even briefing against the policy is common. Some people have their eye on the leadership of the party after the election.  It feels like a continuation of Boris Johnson’s just without the parties. Acting more like an opposition party.

May 2024 date makes sense for practical and political reasons. Holding both local and general at the same time reduces the pain from any local losses.  In practical terms, it allows you to focus the message on national issues and limits local issues. In political terms, major local losses would be painful. Thus heading into a general election would make you look divided. Conservative infighting would only get worse, forget about passing anything unpopular. Bills have already been dropped due to fears over the lack of support.

Energy supply shock has hit incomes, high inflation is causing further pain. Energy prices have decreased but remain higher by a significant amount. Largest hit to incomes in British history within the last 300 years. Looking doubtful things improve any time soon. Bank of England has raised interest rates to reduce inflation. That takes time and unclear without or not it needed to act. Rates are slowly feeding into the wider economy, and borrowing for a mortgage is much higher than before.  The average length is between 2 – 5 years majority ending in 2024.  Mortgage deals are ending with cheap rates forcing much higher rates onto borrowers. Small but highly concentrated group of voters about to get a significant income hit. Suffering from higher energy prices, inflation and much higher mortgage costs. The majority of the pain for mortgages is yet to come.

The latest date for any election is 2025, the government is already in campaign mode over running things. Rishi 5 missions look more like a campaign. Everything is pointing towards things that won’t improve by January 2025. The prime minister can pick the date and roll the dice, waiting it out could prove to be worse. Infighting within the government is looking worse every day. Some good news Boris Johnson has quit as an MP, the bad news is others are still pissing in the tent. At least that circus won’t drag on but a small number of by-elections are coming.

People are already quitting saying it has been toxic or exhausting. Tory rule has been one of crisis, far from fixing the roof been trying to keep it from flying off. The age of crisis and drama is coming to an end.

Thoughts

OceanGate hubris

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OceanGate hubris

On Sunday a submersible started a 11-hour journey to tour the shipwreck of the Titanic. After 1 hour and 45 minutes, Oceangate lost contact with the Titan. Thus beginning an international search and rescue operation to find out what happened. Specialist assets took days before reaching the site. Oceangate launch and recovery ship needed help. The launch site is a remote area but Oceangate at least had the last known location. Remotely operated vehicles (ROV) began the search supported by aircraft, looking for clues. I can’t find anything about Oceangate having its own ROV which is standard practice. Lost communication hinted at failure, a small deep-sea community privately had theories of what happened. Many had doubts about the company trying to do things on the cheap. 

One week later US Navy sources confirmed an unknown noise around the same time was detected. US coast guard and search teams took a while before confirming the Titan was lost and destroyed. Recovery teams kept information until ready to confirm. Given the remote nature of the site far easier to keep rumours at bay. 

The US coast guard confirmed a debris field had been found on Thursday. Therefore identified as part of the Titan, a catastrophic implosion destroyed and killed everybody onboard. 5 pieces of the Titan helped show what happened. A single burst of noise followed by silence helped confirm this. Debris was found 500 metres away from the Titanic, but never hit the ocean floor or the shipwreck.

Titan was a unique design 5 man submersible, that used different materials and designs. Deep diving submersibles normally remote, 1 man or a maximum of 3 crew. The footprint here was similar to remote or single-crew designs. Various engineers have started to point out, the margin of safety was low and lacking redundancies in case of failure. Concerns about safety and practices date back years with lawsuits filed by past employees. Operating in international waters means no rules but many companies do. Oceangate on the other hand decided rules are for losers. Never followed the tough safety certification, which requires retesting after so many hours and years. Oceangate on the other hand skipped that claimed its internal tests were enough. Presenting itself as being fully 100% safe.

Everything about this seems to be avoidable. The sea has becomes the final resting place for 5 more men. Rules and regulations exist for a reason this yet another reminder about why.

Journal, Politics

Iraq war 20 years later

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Iraq war 20 years later

The US spearheaded invasion of Iraq, was controversial, happened on 20th March 2003. Completed US withdrawal from Iraq in 2011. The unwinnable war realistically was about regime change, oil supplies, and chemical/nuclear weapon security. Aim to forcibly disarm Saddam Hussain and end his active support for modern terrorism.

Saddam Hussain declared war on his neighbouring states and resorted to chemical weapons in the questionable past. Iraq’s direct invasion of Kuwait for the discovered oil fields naturally caused the Gulf War. Forcing regime change, by economic sanctions, was unsuccessful. After 9/11, it caused serious security concerns around chemical and nuclear weapons. Saddam continued to threaten to use them. Geopolitics is messy, alliances form based on common interests. Therefore, at times, rivals can be your useful friends. Global powers, like US and Russia, have as much influence as great regional powers. 

The Iraq war with Iran took place between 1980 and 1988. The war was fought over territorial disputes, religious differences, and political tensions. Iraq went to war with Kuwait over wanting to secure more oil fields. The Gulf War, which took place between 1990 and 1991, was a conflict between Iraq and a coalition of countries led by the United States. The war was fought over Iraq‘s invasion of Kuwait in August 1990. Following the war, restraint was the response, economic sanctions and inspections over weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

Western interventions helped foster a feeling they could achieve anything. A series of successful military interventions followed.

– Iraq and Iran war in the 1980s.
– Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 caused the Gulf War. 
– UN mission to Haiti after a violent coup in 1991.
– Somali Civil War correctly saw a UN peacekeeper operation in 1992.
– Bosnian war massacres, NATO air campaign in 1995.
– Afghanistan in 1998 promptly attacking Al-Qaeda terrorist training camps.
– US-UK 4 day bombing of Iraq in 1998 over WMD concerns
– Kosovo War, NATO air campaign against Yugoslavia in 1999.
– Fierce US war against Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, 2001

The US official policy after 1998 efficiently was regime change in Iraq. After 9/11 argument was Saddam Hussain supporting terrorists and supplying weapons. Any evidence was found linking Al-Qaeda to Iraq was weak. Any intelligence about weapons programs came from untrustworthy sources. Isolated, it was difficult to substantiate any claims. Political pressure overruled any concerns. Al-Qaeda had retreated to the mountains in Afghanistan. Americans considered this a victory. Focus switched from Afghanistan to Iraq. Liberate the Iraqi people from oppression and create a democratic state.

Americans believed the next terrorist attack would come from Iraq. Efforts were made to get support of the UN, but that failed. On March 20th, 2003, the US invaded Iraq. The aim was regime change and finding WOMD. In May 2003, Saddam Hussain’s hold on power was lost. The quick defeat of Saddam exposed lack of planning. Tensions began to raise, beginning of a civil war and insurgency. Saddam was promptly captured in December 2003.The search for weapons ended in January 2004, intelligence was completely wrong.

Clear the claims were based on faulty intel, exaggerations and lies. No WMD were ever found, no credible evidence linking Al-Qaeda to Saddam. Democracy did not bring a wave of freedom, but unleashed sectarianism and violence with chaos. Millions displaced in the years afterwards.US occupation faced fierce resistance from various groups. Creating a sense of resentment and alienation.

Trying to rebuild a society during that time full of violence outbursts. Arab enemies of the US funnelled money and weapons to create zones of influence in Iraq, turning Iraq into a regional proxy war. Iranian funded militant groups flooded into Iraq. Saddam‘s loyalists started an insurgency. Factional civil war in the shattered country, regional power vacuum allowed Islamic state to rise.

Consequences of the war include, strained relations between the US and its allies. Ended up destabilising the balance of powers, Iraq was a counterweight to Iran. The war helped fuel the rise of anti-Americanism and radicalisation among some Muslims.

As a teenager, I was against the Iraq war. I never believed the weapons of mass destruction claims and was sceptical about the claims being presented. Charles Kennedy debating the war and protests in London remains vivid memories. The Iraq war did make me question my trust in Westminster. It’s to recall what you were thinking 20 years ago.

I don’t expect the US or UK lied about the WMD. Therefore, groupthink combined with lack of critical thinking and analysis. Raw information was directly sent before any analysis or credible evidence could confirm it. The intelligence community obtained exaggerations and lies, and failed. Traditionally collecting valuable intelligence is difficult at the best of ideal times; if you demand a certain answer, you can discover it. It did reveal a fundamental weakness that has been addressed. 

Blair has argued intervention endures the valid thing to carry out, even without WMDs. That moral argument is rather weak considering various conflicts, civil wars and more the west ignored. Therefore, Iraq was much greater strategic importance due to fossil fuels. 

I however believe armed intervention merely provides a political purpose and should be used sparely. Upholding international law, typically helping properly defend independent nations from direct attack.  Does typically require a coherent set of practical aims and realistically be sole option left. Political peace can purely exist because of the offensive threat of raging war.

I don’t think the illegal war was proper. Alternatively, it has become bad a strategic blunder and moral failure. Ended up helping to spread terrorism and failed to spread democracy. Undoubtedly leaving behind an enduring legacy of considerable destruction and social division, empowered Iran in the middle east political region. 

Undoubtedly helped to merely accelerate waning American influence within global institutions. Merely demonstrating the political limits of global cooperation within regional institutions. Regional cooperation would be far better if you genuinely wanted regime change. Iraq in common was inevitably in the gradual process of forcibly disarming, and chemical weapons were old. The nuclear program had stalled because of international sanctions and attacks. 

A lasting legacy of Iraq has undoubtedly caused isolationists to typically warn against preventive intervention. It realistically was the possible start of much wider political trend, progressively weakening of global order in visible America image. Bunch more strategic failures due disunity. Creating strategic headaches, like Syria or Iran. Regional stability has been a decade old problem and it was made worse. Libya civil war did instantly see NATO-led armed action in 2011. An illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine saw a stronger response compared to Crimea in 2014. 

In conclusion it was an illegal war. Intervention has a place. 

Journal, Politics

Palace of Westminster

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Palace of Westminster

The UK Parliament is in a state of disrepair. The majestic Victorian building requires major work. It was first built in 1016, current structure is Victorian 1840. Damaged during WW2, can find details about it here and here. Rebuilt after WW2, Victorian design remained untouched. Over time, it has developed many hidden dangers, such as asbestos, fire hazards and structural defects. Temporary fixes have kept it functioning, but they are insufficient to prevent further deterioration.

Members of Parliament know about the problems, but they have postponed. They have spent years considering the same options: whether to remain in the building while it is being fixed, or to relocate temporarily or permanently. During 2018 debated Restoration and Renewal Programme, voting to temporality move out. After five years of indecision, they scrapped the sponsor body that was supposed to oversee the project and decided to bring it in-house.

However, this could result in a delay that could inflict huge permanent damage on the historic building. Kicking the issue into the next parliament. Westminster’s design is deeply flawed by modern standards. It lacks adequate fire safety measures, ventilation systems and accessibility features. The whole process of repairing stone, art and basic systems is complex and expensive. Conservatives are destroying the very thing they claim to love. No desire to preserve the Victorian palace of Westminster.

One option that has been suggested is decanting Parliament, which means moving its functions outside the main building while it undergoes restoration and renewal. This would make the project cheaper, safer and faster than staying put. Restoration and renewal would involve replacing existing systems that are outdated or unsafe with more efficient and reliable ones. Maintenance at present is costly and only delays a more comprehensive solution.

My own opinion is that Parliament should move out permanently and find a new location that better suits its modern needs. The palace should be turned into a museum that displays its history and significance for the public. Westminster is an icon of London and a symbol of democracy. The building and what it stands for are well-known, but it does not have to be limited by its past.

Some of the factors that may influence this decision are: accessibility, affordability, availability, security and symbolism. Here are some of the potential candidates for a new parliamentary site:

York has been proposed as a possible location by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. It is a historic city close to the geographic centre of England with good transport links to the rest of the country. It would require upgrading infrastructure to accommodate parliament and its associated functions. The city may lack the space and the estimated cost is £3 billion.

Manchester has also been suggested as a possible location. It is a modern city considered the capital of Northern England with good transport links to the rest of the country. It has hosted major events like the Commonwealth Games and the G7 summit. It has the infrastructure to accommodate parliament but may lack the space. The estimated cost is £2 billion. There may be competition from other nearby cities such as Liverpool or Leeds.

Birmingham is another option. It is the second-largest city in England with a diverse population and a reputation for culture. It is well connected to the rest of England and has hosted events like Manchester has done. It already has the infrastructure but may lack political support. A new parliamentary complex in Birmingham is estimated at £1 billion.

Need to offer local housing for MPs. Every MP has unique circumstances, families of different sizes. There could be other alternatives depending on feasibility, affordability, desirability and acceptability. The cost of the project is huge ranging from £3 to £77 billion. Until work begins we won’t know the real cost. Westminster’s decay feels similar to politics at present: unable to discuss policy instead focusing on division over problem-solving. Part of broader trend, lack of scrutiny.

The next government is going to have to deal with a crumbling parliament. Both mainstream parties have a consensus: something must be done. Parties are seriously thinking about devolution. Moving parliament would show they are serious about that. Devolution is going to play an important role going forward, aiming to decentralise the UK. There is a broad direction pointing that way, but no agreement on the fine details.

The next parliament is will be one dealing with crisis. Therefore would need to restore trust in British politics. Period of renewal not just Westminster but public service. Decaying palace is an reflection.

Journal

Testing bing new chatbot

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Testing bing new chatbot

Over the weekend, I have been testing the new AI-powered Bing. You can find my first impressions of using it here. I decided to give Bing some text to grammar and spell check. Below you can find the original text.

My version

Marvel has created a cinematic universe, based on the comic book stories. Creating in house TV shows and movies all connected. Taking a huge risk with the release of Iron man in 2008. First stage was the infinity saga from 2008 till 2019, second stage is multiverse saga. DC comics has tried to recreate the magic but has failed. Having its own success stories but unable to build a universe. New golden age of super hero media, partly inspired by the successful animated TV shows of the 90s and 2000s. Key lesson here is not flooding the market and taking some risk. Overwhelming number of sequels show people have forget what Walt Disney said.

“You Can’t Top Pigs With Pigs” Walt Disney

Highs and lows, some of best TV shows and movies have been released in last decade. Some of more successfully movies at the box office are formulaic. Sequels follow after a successful movie, until everything goes wrong. Nobody has been able to create media empire like Marvel has done. House of mouse finding mega success off the comic storytellers. Number of sequels and new heroes to a new generation. During the early 2000s Fox and Sony found some success with Xmen and spiderman. Unable to spin that into long term success. Making various sequels and having been rebooted, both crashing and burning.

Disney decided to buy 20th century fox. Sony entered an agreement which saw spiderman fall under Marvel magic creative touch. Result successful set of spiderman movies and being part of biggest super hero movie of all time. Sony plans to create its own universe based on spiderman, piggy backing off sequels. Darker venom movies setting up the stage for more to come. I’m not sure how much involvement Marvel is having here. Both Sony and Fox suffered a similar problem, unable to find similar success to Marvel. Both not really taking any risks and retelling old stories. Fox did take one big gamble with Deadpool but largely

Bing version

Marvel has created a cinematic universe based on the comic book stories, producing in-house TV shows and movies that are all connected. They took a huge risk with the release of Iron Man in 2008. The first stage was the Infinity Saga from 2008 to 2019, and the second stage is the Multiverse Saga. DC Comics has tried to recreate the magic but has failed, having its own success stories but unable to build a universe. We are in a new golden age of superhero media, partly inspired by the successful animated TV shows of the 90s and 2000s. The key lesson here is not to flood the market and to take some risks. The overwhelming number of sequels shows that people have forgotten what Walt Disney said:

“You Can’t Top Pigs With Pigs” Walt Disney

There have been highs and lows. Some of the best TV shows and movies have been released in the last decade, but some of the more successful movies at the box office are formulaic. Sequels follow after a successful movie, until everything goes wrong. Nobody has been able to create a media empire like Marvel has done. The House of Mouse has found mega success with the comic storytellers, introducing a number of sequels and new heroes to a new generation. During the early 2000s, Fox and Sony found some success with X-Men and Spider-Man, but they were unable to spin that into long-term success. They made various sequels and reboots, both crashing and burning.

Disney decided to buy 20th Century Fox. Sony entered an agreement that allowed Spider-Man to fall under Marvel’s creative touch. The result was a successful set of Spider-Man movies and being part of the biggest superhero movie of all time. Sony plans to create its own universe based on Spider-Man, piggybacking off the sequels. Darker Venom movies are setting the stage for more to come. I’m not sure how much involvement Marvel has here. Both Sony and Fox suffered from a similar problem: they were unable to find similar success to Marvel. They did not really take any risks and retold old stories. Fox did take one big gamble with Deadpool, but that was largely an exception.

The Bing chatbot performed that task rather well, outputting human-sounding text. The next test was asking it to provide a summary and a poem based on that input.

Marvel has created a shared universe of superhero films and TV shows based on their comic books, starting with Iron Man in 20081. The first phase of their universe was called the Infinity Saga and spanned from 2008 to 20192. The second phase is called the Multiverse Saga and is ongoing2. DC Comics has tried to emulate Marvel’s success but has struggled to create a coherent and popular universe, although some of their standalone films have been well-received. Superhero media is very popular nowadays, partly influenced by the animated shows of the past. However, some critics argue that the superhero genre is becoming too repetitive and formulaic, and that originality and risk-taking are needed to avoid saturation. This is in line with Walt Disney’s quote: “You Can’t Top Pigs With Pigs”

You can see Bing searching the web and providing references. I asked Bing to summarize it further and here the result.

Marvel has made a shared universe of superhero films and TV shows since 2008. DC Comics has tried to do the same but has failed. Superhero media is very popular but also very similar. Walt Disney said: “You Can’t Top Pigs With Pigs”.

Now let’s ask Bing to create a poem based on that text.

Marvel has a vision
To create a world of heroes
With stories that connect
Across films and shows

They started with Iron Man
And ended with Endgame
The Infinity Saga was a hit
The Multiverse Saga is the same

DC Comics tried to follow
But they could not compete
Their universe was messy
Their films were incomplete

Superhero media is booming
Thanks to cartoons of the past
But some say it's too much
And the genre won't last

Walt Disney had a wisdom
That still applies today
You can't top pigs with pigs
You have to find a new way

Automation of grammar, spell checking is significant for me.  The chatbot also formats the text to highlight what was changed. Instead of having to manually update the text, I input the whole text and copy the output now. Bing performance is superior compared to Microsoft editor. Watching the bot working is quite something.

I don’t think it removes the need for human input, but it helps improve productivity. The text above is just one example of automation. A skilled editor could proofread the final results. There is potential here to improve productivity for the average worker. For example, customer feedback can be summarized, saving time.

I have not just inputted random text, but given it a spreadsheet formula problem to solve. Bing’s ability to write code and debug that code could be a gamechanger. However, there are hidden guard rails that exist that limit the ability of Bing to fulfill your requests. Bing searched the Libra office documentation, forums and more to find the solution. This is a basic automation of a web search based on a language input. I tried to get Bing to build whole spreadsheet for me but it refused. Instead gave me three to four different answers, each of which could give a right solution. Sometimes it can give you different results based on the same question.

Asking it a basic question what is the population of London?

According to the London Datastore1, London is home to an estimated 8.8 million people, making it the largest city in the UK. It is also a highly diverse city, with over 3.5 million residents born outside the UK. The population of London is estimated to be just over 9 million people in 20202, an increase of over 2 million people when compared with the early 1980s. The population of London is expected to hit the 10 million mark by 20352.

2nd

Hello, this is Bing. According to the latest census data, the population of London was 8.91 million in 20181. It is the largest and most diverse city in the United Kingdom, with over 3.5 million residents born outside the UK2. London stands on the River Thames in south-east England and has been a major settlement for two millennia34.

Search engines already suffer from misinformation and disinformation. Adding another layer which could give you outputs you want to hear is a huge red flag. This is already a problem with social media and search engines at the moment. Bing automation of web search shows search engines have many strengths and weaknesses. Instead of fixing or addressing any weakness we got this. I don’t believe this improves Bing search engine. The next step is going to be images, there are already some working models that output images but few understand the image. Microsoft is already working on one that does.

These models work best at smaller scale with a limited data set. For Microsoft, this new language model could massively improve its office 365 product suite. Business suite is getting automation powered by AI. Therefore, it could improve the existing editor which failed to pick up the mistakes. It is unclear if you can make stuff like this work offline or need some sort of cloud network. The reason why they have added this new system to Bing search engine is business related. Investors want to see results and the next big thing. Spending billions to improve spellchecker won’t cause shareholders to cheer.

Investing billions to increase your overall operating costs is not smart business. User data is already heavily monetized, raising privacy concerns around meta data. Big American tech track record with user data is not great. More nations are asking questions about the power they already hold. Now they want to suck up more user data with weak existing frameworks and no oversight?

In conclusion

Automation of various tasks producing far more accurate results is useful. Rush to integrate it into Bing is rather worrying. Technical limitations are going to cause problems. Lack of understanding how current search engine weakness feed into this AI. Less is more when it comes to this idea.

I don’t believe the hype around this wave of machine learning being sold as AI just yet. It does however make a rather good spell checker and grammar checker.

Journal

Lonely men problem

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Lonely men problem

Receiving compliments or people reading this blog feels rather surreal. Sometimes I just write what on my mind, writing what I know. Other times I bit of research. Feels me with confidence that sometimes people stumble over here. Like a drunk asking for directions looking at your garden, clueless on what you just said. I don’t really promote this place or SEO.

Being lonely is a problem, not just social but health one. Took me years to understand that not about being interesting or funny but turning up. Adults lack the structure that helps foster friendship. With time bonds start to form, could be from a common interest. We don’t need just lovers but friendship to alongside that. Ups and downs, sometimes you need to put more effort into other things. Friends remain your friend even if you not spoken for a while.

Seeking out a community that fills you with sense of belonging. I recently took a chance (Here) and found a community I really enjoy. Small internet community that a collection of LGBT+ community well one part of it. Made me realize that I should seek out something more local. I began to understand that me being lonely was a bad thing. Anxiety not helpful with meeting new people or opening up.

Society should take it more seriously, not just man problem but younger men face a loneliness crisis. All ages have a problem here, with so many spaces shutting down and poor public transport it a problem.

Guess I should say thank you for the person who created the space and community. Hope you stick around and find time for us. Hopefully one day I can get to meet various members from this server.

>_> I really needed to be told certain things I had forgotten and allowed demons inside my head to convince me otherwise.

Politics

Nicola Sturgeon resigns

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Nicola Sturgeon resigns

Nicola Sturgeon announced she resigning as first minster, along with leader of the SNP. Lifelong career in politics, she decided it is time to leave on her terms. Style was professional, measured and straight to the point. Sense of duty that sometimes is lacking from others. Able to switch between sounding human, giving detailed information in a clear way. During dark early days of covid she was a shining light on what to do. Compared to Boris Johnson he looked out of his depth.

One of the best communicators in decades British politics has seen. Sharp contrast to many other politicians, popular figure within and outside the party. I quite liked her for a number of reasons. I respected her, don’t fully agree with her politics.

Party crafted a space within left, centre left with centre of Scotland. Replacing Labour in minds of voters as being the progressive choice. Attracting a wide range of voters, some with social conservatives’ views. How she approached disagreement, creating bridges and finding common ground something that is often missing in English politics.

Scottish politics still had toxic elements but largely it was restricted to certain debates. Above all else Scottish parliament offers a blueprint for how politics can be done. Working with your opponents to help craft legislation. Even with SNP being a majority it still worked with opponents to create bills. Able to strengthen institutions and overall empowering Scotland. Westminster never really understood how to deal with Scotland or engage with it. SNP dominated the landscape during her leadership.  Longest serving first minster and first women in the role. Many reasons why it was time to leave, wanted to avoid being a divisive figure. Resignation statement makes clear just how draining and brutal it can be. History going to view her with kindness. 

Support for independence remains not a solid majority but has crystalized a minority. Nicola, understand you needed a majority not just a thin one. Independence being the core aim, she no longer believes she can carry the flag or deliver it. I believe in the union but understand it needs to change.

It would be foolish to believe the indepedence disappears overnight. I don’t think sudden recovery happens overnight for Labour. SNP are firmly now the establishment, that makes it hard to paint the party as outsiders. Record highs they enjoy are unlikely to remain forever. No party has a right to exist.

Now a new guard takes over, with no successor in sight process to select a new leader for Scotland begins.

Journal, Thoughts

Blogging update

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Blogging update

When it comes to blogging, one or two things happen. I have a topic in mind or don’t. 

Generally, I have a topic in mind and start writing. The first sentence is reworded or deleted a couple of dozen times. I’m happy with it, carrying on writing or unhappy and bin it. No topic often gets writer’s block, staring at the screen. Write something before quickly deleting it, and end up writing the same thing process. 

Once I have a couple of sentences, turning them into paragraphs. At that stage, move around paragraphs and sentences. The editing process begins with rewriting with rewording, followed by basic formatting. Proofread each sentence for errors and how it sounds. The whole process for me is rather intense, posts end up on the cutting room floor. After this much effort, I can just bin it.

In my little corner of the web, I moderate what is being posted. I have started to move towards quality over quantity. This leads me to explain why I have stopped posting music. Low effort posts and never really explained why I enjoyed it or picked it. I plan on making music posts again but with a better format. Watch me keep to the lazy old format. 

They say the art of blogging is over, I disagree it just moved towards short-form outlets. Social media sites are often short posts cut into pieces or links to other bits of content. The art of blogging has moved from decentralised personal sites to more centralized ones. Being in control of your own corner has benefits and downsides. For me, this was always an outlet, a bit of creativity. Designed to help improve my writing skills and push myself. When it was started things were different compared to now, change happens, and I have learnt a decent amount but way more to learn. 

Journal

Gender recognition reform act

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Gender recognition reform act

Disclaimer

I don’t like what is happening around the Scottish gender recognition reform act. I don’t enjoy watching trans people being punching bags. I fully support expanding, protecting rights and better healthcare.

I can’t begin to understand what transgender people experience. I’m quite frankly ignorant about a range of issues but want to be informed. Unable to understand the challenges facing the transgender community without listening to voices within that community. We should be listening and helping them influence policies that impact them.

The general public often has contradictory, often very complicated opinions. Public opinion can often change widely depending on the question. Details can make or break support. A member of the public does not pay attention until needs to. Other issues are far more important to people compared to this. In the minority here I would broadly support changes to the gender recognition act.

The Scottish gender recognition reform act has been 6 years in the making. Enjoying some cross-party support, various charities and groups have influenced the bill. Even in Scotland, this reform is still controversial. See YouGov polling for the times on the subject here. Reforming this law is controversial, credit to Sturgeon for backing this.

Secretary of State for Scotland, Alister Jack released this statement.

I have decided to make an order under section 35 of the Scotland Act 1998, preventing the Scottish Parliament’s Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill from proceeding to Royal Assent.

After thorough and careful consideration of all the relevant advice and the policy implications, I am concerned that this legislation would have an adverse impact on the operation of Great Britain-wide equalities legislation.

Transgender people who are going through the process to change their legal sex deserve our respect, support and understanding. My decision today is about the legislation’s consequences for the operation of GB-wide equalities protections and other reserved matters.

I have not taken this decision lightly. The Bill would have a significant impact on, amongst other things, GB-wide equalities matters in Scotland, England and Wales. I have concluded, therefore, that this is the necessary and correct course of action.

If the Scottish Government chooses to bring an amended Bill back for reconsideration in the Scottish Parliament, I hope we can work together to find a constructive way forward that both respects devolution and the operation of UK Parliament legislation.

I have written today to the First Minister and the Scottish Parliament’s Presiding Officer informing them of my decision.

Stephen Bush of the FT, inside politics piece on the subject. I would agree with this more about a legal dispute over anything else.

What does the bill do?

  • Lowers the age, people in Scotland can apply for gender-recognition certificate (GRC) to 16.
  • Removes the need for a medical diagnosis of gender dysphoria.

The question for the courts is Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill has implications for UK-wide equalities law. Any judicial review would be looking at that question not the use of section 35.

The basic problem is Scotland can’t reshape the process of changing your legal gender, without reshaping UK equalities law. Depending on who you ask the Equality Act 2010 matters here or does not. Another revision of the Equality Act is likely now required to clear up any problems.

The risk here draws attention to a broader constitutional issue. England’s sheer size means in practice it can set the law for everybody else. An example here is the equality law. I suspect the reason why Sturgeon wanted to push ahead, was to highlight that problem. Easier to sell this controversial bill, by amplifying the sovereignty argument. Making it a fight over the veto and power Westminster holds over Holyrood.

Maybe that last point is too cynical but has been ample time for a solution both sides can agree on. Maybe this is just a simple legal dispute with Hollyrood thinking it could pass this without causing any problems. Reality is a compromise must be found if you want to pass this bill.

*Small update Welsh government has published plans for gender recognition reforms. It will be seeking powers that allow it to do that. Host of other reforms in the works. 

I don’t like what is happening, toxic and controversial debate. I don’t enjoy watching trans people being punching bags. I support protecting LGBT+ rights, and trans rights and easier to access healthcare for trans people.

Journal, Labour, Politics

Update: Outcomes of a general election

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Last year in June I wrote, the outcome of the next general election has various scenarios.

First a quick recap on what has happened, the scandal train forced Boris out bringing down his govt and setting records. Liz Truss became prime minister and the Queen died, budget caused market panic and forced Liz Truss to resign after 44 days. Rishi sunak becomes prime minister after losing to Liz Truss, dealing with the mess and chaos. Internal and external shocks have battered the ruling party. Turmoil has been corrosive, with negative views about Boris soaking into the party brand. A trend that started a year before. Liz Truss’s short stay at number 10 just compounded what was happening. A slowing economy and high inflation added to the pile of unpopularity.

All of this has slowly been eating away at hard-earned favourable, now Labour is more trusted in everything. The golden goose that is economic competence is well now Labours. Soft leads that can harden with time. Even with polling leads and positive leaning favourable ratings, recovery for Labour would be remarkable. Labour has been declining from 2001 till 2019. Could argue the decline goes further back, with cultural link to Labour being weak. Labour needs more of every type of voter to close the gap. Tories have been able to reinvent themselves, transferring wealth to voters and keeping others indifferent.

Conservatives have created a cushion, a voter coalition built over the last two decades that deliver seats.  A base that is reliable, older homeowners and professionals. Labour on the other hand base is unreliable and not as evenly spread across seats. Suffering various forms of collapse, former safely reliable seats disappeared. A big problem is the volatility of voting patterns. Long-term trends speed up creating some wild results.

A general rule of thumb 6.5% swing against the current govt happens on average. Swing that size wipes out the current 80-seat majority, Rishi inherited. In the last decade, they have been gaining ground, and Labour has been losing ground. Keir needs a 15% swing or more needed for a majority of 1. It needs to gain 120 seats for a majority of one.  Therefore, we are about 3-4 cycles away from the new govt. You would think but the 2020s have been defined by disruption.

Blair was able to achieve 10.5% but needed 55 seats for a majority. Target seats during 1997 were far easier to pick up compared to today. A mix of indifference towards Blair plus an average swing of 14% towards Labour saw 150 seats gained.

Right now, the key points are the following

  • Labour in 2024 is fighting from a low point
  • Tories in 2024 are fighting from a high point
  • New seat boundaries
  • Voter ID laws
  • Polling leads between 14% to 22%
  • 16% swing from Tory to Labour
  • 20% / 30% won’t vote or unsure
  • Indifference to a labour govt

The trend against the Tories started back in 2021, volatility has only increased. Near universal increase in support for Labour across all age groups. Holding a majority with voters under the age of 50 now. Over the 50s are moving towards Labour, and those over 60s remain firmly Tory. Based on an average vote of 35,000, any seat with 15,000 majorities is within reach for Labour. Swings can be widely different between areas. Universal swings can only tell half the story, sometimes local swings can be much bigger. Once safe seats become way less safe overnight.

Here are the 8 outcomes, volatility in recent elections means they are all possible. The first four options are looking unlikely now.

  1. 80+ seat Tory majority
  2. 40+ seat Tory majority
  3. Small Tory majority
  4. Hung parliament another election
  5. Minority government
  6. Formal coalition
  7. Small Labour majority
  8. 40+ Labour majority

Trends at the moment make it impossible to see a Tory majority being returned. Party is unpopular and votes feel worse off. Labour has a mountain to climb, hung parliament or minority administration is possible. Massive recovery makes the party more competitive but unable to win enough seats. Seat totals mask a great set of results and major recovery. Some positive signs but still remain sceptical about current large poll leads. Huge levels of volatility within polls, something else could happen. Been here before unpopular govt big poll leads that disappeared. However current deficit makes it look unlikely Rishi can see a recovery. Loss of trust across a wide range of issues and feeling change is required. This time it could be different, voters as a whole are feeling the pain. Therefore I’m starting to think that the hung parliament and the big majority are being underpriced. Possible that after almost 15 years, collapse happens with Tories taking a big hit.

Anything from the 4th to 8th option looks likely.