Bonfire Night: Democrats Have a Spark Again or Lost the Plot?

Remember, Remember: Why I’m Watching the U.S. Again

Remember, remember the 5th of November. The Gunpowder Plot happened 420 years ago, yet I woke up this morning not to a treason plot, but to election news from the U.S.
Yes, I know, I’m a bit boring. But I find elections and data fascinating. A handful of special elections were held: two governor races (Virginia and New Jersey), a few judges, Georgia’s Public Service Commission, and the New York mayoral election. Something in California too, a small redistricting response to Republican gerrymandering ahead of next year’s midterms. Like a Hollywood blockbuster nobody watches, there was something for everyone.

The Americanisation of British Media

For some reason, Brits love following American politics while almost no one in the U.S. cares what happens here. But what happens in America spreads. Media travels globally now, Peppa Pig to Marvel, outsized influence one way over the other. On a lighter note, American kids with British accents due to that pig is cute. The media diet gets Americanised, that includes narratives and language (DEAR GOD PLEASE STOP) being imported and exported.

So what changed? Well, scale and viability. A nation of say 65 million people making news or TV shows just for itself is a challenge. That’s why we do things on a budget. The media ecosystem has gone global, meaning stuff can be seen all over the world now. We don’t just import shows, we import worldviews as a result. Also export them too. A good example is the word woke. A completely meaningless word here. It’s lazy but happening because content isn’t made for me anymore, it’s made for Americans who want cosplay of British news from American eyes. Once that takes hold it’s hard to talk about British problems in British terms and nuance around it. It took me a while to understand this. It took me even longer to understand it in the context of empire, just how much culture and tradition we did the same thing with. If you want to fix that, you need to fix the business model of news and media overall. That means clipping the wings of American big tech. British debate feels filtered by American talking points, removing context and nuance that matters. That’s the short version.

Dark money and influence reach my island too. In fact, it is already here, though you may not have noticed it yet. As a lover of history, it’s weird seeing certain things being repeated over and over again. Soft influence is everywhere. Global forces, many of them American, will shape Labour’s next budget. The last one left no wiggle room. Governments everywhere are struggling with inflation and economic pain fuelled by Trump’s tariffs, COVID, and instability. Britain is trapped between Europe and America, stuck in its own stagflation spiral, partly due to choices made and a political class terrified of telling voters the truth. The ugly truth is similar to America: too much debt and not enough taxes. Britain can no longer count on the kindness of strangers to buy its debt. Many others share the same story: high debt levels, high borrowing costs, and instability caused by uncertainty and past mistakes.

At the same time, women are becoming more liberal, and the education gap is dividing voters. Not perfect but it’s a constant theme everywhere. Age, some places you have radical old, radical young. Populist right are coming. One side is radicalising, the other can’t tell a coherent story or make hard choices. It is alienating its core supporters for voters who will never come back. Sound familiar?

A Quiet Unravelling at Home

British politics feels dull. Labour’s huge majority has flattened the noise, and journalists used to chaos don’t know what to do with boredom, so they get radicalised on X. The old media ecosystem has well collapsed. The internet broke the old hierarchy but never replaced it. Now we have power without accountability, anonymous outrage instead of editors, algorithms instead of editors. Plenty of bad actors sewing misinformation and disinformation online now. And the people who understand how to weaponise that power, often from abroad, dominate the conversation.

First, it was owned by largely conservative-supporting donors. Staffed by people from private schools who swim in that circle of people. Naturally hostile towards anybody else. Not just that, the local paper’s business model is dead. Public broadcasting is part of that conservative lean with liberals on staff. The old idea of balance no longer works in a world based on clicks and fury. “The moon is made of cheese” is taken too seriously when these outdated rules no longer function how they should. Journalism is experience, and the system is underfunded. That’s why talking heads are cheaper and drama easier to produce. Why every dull week turns into a crisis and nobody talks about buses or local government. Focus is on the top job because your mate from private school is the prime minister. Most people no longer get news like this anymore.

But beneath the quiet, something real is happening: the slow unwinding of two-party dominance. We are seeing more European-style outcomes under a voting system that wasn’t built for them. Yet nobody seems to care enough to ask why, or to offer insight. Instead, we get endless noise boosting the far right. Most voters here don’t like what’s happening in America, and they don’t want to repeat it. The old firewall is cracking, and dark fringe ideas are entering the mainstream, like a frog being boiled without noticing it. There are key differences that many people seeking to import American politics here don’t really understand. Anyway, back to America.

The Democratic Dilemma

Most of the focus has been on New York and the governor races. Some are calling these results an early bellwether for the 2026 midterms. I’m not sure that’s wise. These were friendly contests, mostly, bunched together with smaller elections all over. A multicultural city electing someone who reflects that story isn’t shocking, but it’s still notable: the highest turnout in decades, and a candidate who went from 2% in the polls a year ago to 50% of the vote. His opponent, in normal times, would have won, but the margin was over 180,000 votes out of more than a million cast. You don’t win numbers like that without expanding your coalition. The anti-establishment mood is alive and well.

The Democratic establishment won’t be thrilled that an outsider like Mamdani beat them. Some of the party’s older leaders are vulnerable to the same anti-establishment forces that reshaped the Republicans. Think of the seven progressives in Congress, the informal group known as the Squad. They exist because they replaced retiring incumbents or directly defeated establishment figures. The next generation is coming up fast, and it’s time for some people to pass the torch, and maybe a few lessons too. Both sides could learn from each other.

Conservatives own and win the algorithm war

The media in America is conservative-owned, Democrats need to learn how to exist within this new ecosystem. You don’t win arguments anymore, just algorithms and who can get the most eyeballs on you. Facts and truth are still in bed by the time a lie has made it halfway around the world. They are playing on an unequal field and that should be one area needing big reform. The American right built entire ecosystems outside mainstream media talk radio, YouTube pundits, social networks, and they dominate attention. Democrats still act like newspapers and debates matter. They don’t. The fight’s for eyeballs, not airwaves. Like most things in America, it’s more polarised than ever. Congress isn’t what it used to be, and compromise feels like a lost art.

Polarised Congress and why it matters

In a tight Congress, those members can push the party in a very different direction. It caused Biden plenty of issues with more moderate holdouts in split-ticket seats, a rarer thing these days. There’s an uneasy alliance with the establishment seeking to primary them. Two out of seven were replaced in 2024, proving the machine still knows how to defend itself.

Political parties are coalitions. Every vote matters, and they need a wide range of blocs. Those blocs keep a party alive and capable of generating new ideas. But American politics is built on control, and both major parties’ establishments are obsessed with keeping it. The two-party system must survive at all costs. The Republicans couldn’t resist the takeover by Trump, with the Tea Party laying the groundwork. The Democrats aren’t immune to the same kind of forces. You can use that energy to regenerate the party, or let it destroy you.

Mamdani the outsider

And here’s the irony: it’s Trump’s outsider energy reborn, but from the other side. Like Trump, Zohran Mamdani channelled decline into hope. That’s dangerous for the Democratic establishment. Even their safest seats might not be so safe. The same pressure that once broke the Republican Party could push Democrats to their own extremes. The primary system breeds that risk. The comfort, for now, is that it’s just New York, not a national takeover. Whether Democrats let Mamdani succeed or hang him out to dry will say a lot about how confident they really are.

Mamdani just won the New York mayoral race, 34 years old, the youngest in a century, and the first Muslim and South Asian-American to take the job. Two firsts, and history made. A socialist, a progressive, and liberal even by New York standards. From a nobody to mayor, a genuine celebration of democracy in action. As a progressive, that warms my heart. Mamdani makes progressives in Europe say, “That sounds normal.”

Affordability is an issue that is driving things

He ran on cost of living and the economy, big promises, some beyond his power. Affordability is the term used across the pond, meaning rent, housing, healthcare, bills, insurance, and food. That could haunt him later. But for now, it’s a sweet victory. He stayed laser-focused on what voters care about and didn’t fold on his values. Authentic, disciplined, positive. He smiled, had fun, respected the office, and voters responded. Mamdani’s message won’t work everywhere, but his focus on the economy will. Authenticity still counts.

Bigger picture and bellwether

New York was just a small part of a bigger picture. Affordability is the main concern on voters’ lips. Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey did the same, just more quietly. All wings of the party found success by listening, not lecturing. They looked like adults, confident, smiling, hopeful. Meanwhile, Republicans sounded bitter. Hubris made them think they could avoid talking about it. Trump threatened to withhold funding for a major tunnel in New Jersey, while Virginia, packed with federal workers, sent a clear message: we don’t like the shutdown.

Across the board, Pennsylvania’s 5–2 Supreme Court majority remains. In Mississippi, Democrats gained House and Senate seats, breaking the Republican supermajority. In Connecticut, three mayoral races flipped. New Jersey’s supermajority returned to the Democrats for the first time since 2019. These aren’t isolated wins; they’re part of a wider story. Looking at district data, you see some movement. In areas where Trump was strongest, his support declined. In areas he flipped, they’ve flipped back hard. Like everywhere else, people don’t like the cost of living being so goddamn high.

It’s not a clear bellwether for 2026, but it is a blueprint and a warning. Without Trump on the ballot, his coalition doesn’t turn out. Places once safely red can swing. Ignoring the cost of living is political suicide. For Democrats, complacency is just as dangerous. Voters won’t back you just because they dislike the other guy. Don’t assume “normal” is back.

What Democrats Must Do Next

The blueprint is simple: attack Trump and Republicans not on personality, but on performance. Hit them for failing to fix what people feel every day — prices, housing, wages, healthcare. Affordability is on people’s minds right now. Talk like normal people. That’s how you build trust for the bigger fights later. Don’t talk down to voters, talk to them.

Voters keep saying the same thing: the economy feels bad. So what are you going to do about it? In 2024, Kamala Harris said she’d do nothing different. Trump promised he’d fix inflation, and that promise, more than ideology, won him a narrow victory. Voters weren’t stupid. They knew he’d break things, they just thought it might be worth it. Sure, voters care about immigration, but the price of eggs and petrol matter more.

Now the shoe is on the other foot. Trump is more interested in ballrooms and TV than basic economics. Prices rise and he shrugs. Showing little interest in governing is dangerous for him. That’s the Democrats’ opening: reframe the conversation. Get people talking about their bills and show how Republican chaos makes things worse. It’s not glamorous, but it works. Some people are starting to take notice of the growing problem. Hubris after a narrow win, doing so much damage, and the price of governing is now catching up.

Voters want relief and help now

The lesson is that the base matters, swing voters matter, but the economy matters most. You can’t rule like a king and be shocked when voters punish you for not doing what you promised. Reform takes time to filter down, but hope and a positive message still count. Democrats finally seem to realise that the “norms” game is over. Republicans tore those up long ago. Compromise isn’t weakness, it’s how you build something lasting. The establishment should look at Republicans as a warning: stay lazy and you’ll be replaced. The same anger that fuelled Trump could now turn on him. Every time he talks about anything other than the price of eggs, voters see him for what he’s become: part of the swamp.

King has nothing to do with me, Trump

Trump is ruling by ego, not politics. He sees himself as a leader and assumes everyone will follow. It’s arrogance on an industrial scale. The government is shut down at the moment. With him demanding they blow up the Senate filibuster, Republicans are warning: be careful what you wish for. Yet the party is not moving with him here. Now they have the longest shutdown in history. Trying to wait out Democrats, who want healthcare premiums to be subsidised. Republicans want the government to reopen, will talk about anything else afterward. His power depends on being seen as a winner; once that cracks, it could all collapse. They are worried about losing the House and Senate. Doubling down, message is wrong, Biden tried this and lost his elections. Yet they’re walking the same path and trying to rig things to avoid the same fate. The rest of the Republican Party is paralysed by fear. Hardliners just want to fight, and the realists know they’ll get the blame when it all goes wrong. Now they have a toxic part of the party that just wants chaos. Dealing with that legacy will be painful.

Broken party and angry rich folks, angry poor folks

It’s a broken party, and the forces they unleashed are angry and unstable. They didn’t create the problem alone, but they’ll pay for it. The legacy of Trump, and the trends he unleashed, aren’t going away. Neither is the political ecosystem that enabled it. The challenge for Democrats now is to repair, reform, and deliver the change voters demand. That means shaking up Washington’s order and tackling the unthinkable: lobbying reform, serious tax reform, and a rethink of how power works. Along with so much more that is broken. The death of institutional knowledge that took decades to build. That knowledge is important, how businesses and governments can be more efficient. Hold people to account. When they hollow out, all that’s left is a press release. The people who think they can burn it down for freedom will allow themselves to do whatever they want. Forgetting the reason why it exists in the first place. To stop exploitation and abuse, holding people to account. They want power but none of the accountability that comes with it.

Opposition not defeated not broken

For all their divisions, Democrats at least look like a party that wants to win. That’s something. They no longer seem defeated. The opposition feels alive again. It reminds me of a boxer who lost the last close fight, but now it’s round 17, and the other guy is on the ropes. But they can’t be lazy or complacent. Voters wanted disruption, just not chaos. The challenge now is to look like the party of change while appealing to a big enough coalition to win. They need answers, not just vibes.

Unreliable shine of American power is fading

To the rest of the world, America looks unreliable, and the soft power it once held is being thrown away. America’s cultural power used to flow through music, cinema, and ideas. Now it spreads through social media outrage and algorithmic sludge. The same networks that once sold democracy now sell conspiracy. That’s the real soft power crisis. Damaging its allies and forcing us to look again at the unlimited power these tech giants have over us. Normally, powers decline through outside forces, not by choice. I don’t think many Americans have realised that yet. Just how toxic you’re becoming. To be fair, they’re busy at home. Economic dynamism a gift from immigration is under threat as you tell everybody to go home. Knocking down everything you stood for. Which seems rather hollow, preaching about free speech and competition. While doing protectionism and limiting competition. Taking actions on free speech which questionable because somebody said something mean about old guy in white house. Also a global element here across so much of the world. But voters everywhere are demanding domestic answers, and cooperation is increasingly essential. At a time we need more politics makes that cooperation more difficult to do. Sometimes it’s not even governments people have to deal with anymore, but international companies and bodies instead. I did warn that affordability would be part of Trump’s downfall back in November. Also warned that overreach would be part of his undoing too.

And so, the conclusion is simple: talk about what matters to people’s daily lives, or lose. Managing decline isn’t enough. People don’t want spin. They want things fixed. They want change.

Author’s Note: Why It Matters To Me

Why do I care so much? Because I’ve seen the same forces and talking points infect British politics, and it alarms me. What I’ve found is that much of this poison comes from across the Atlantic, an American export that wants to destroy multicultural Britain and doesn’t understand our culture or traditions. Frankly, sod off. It’s not organic either, it’s networked. It is organised, well-funded. The same grifters, influencers, and think tanks testing lines in America repackage them for British audiences. They know what cuts through and gains traction. What they want isn’t conversation, it’s to remake Britain in their image. If that does not work it’s still good business. That’s the real conspiracy going on here. Conspiracy theories about a “coming civil war” in the UK are absurd. We apologise when someone cuts in front of us in a queue. The people who fantasise about violence need to be told to shut up. To make matters worse, when one of the richest men on earth talks about a coup we should start listening and taking notice.

Strange really, I’m a liberal progressive yet I seem to be more conservative these days. Yet my values have not really moved. Brain rot on the populist right has shifted things that much. We really should look at places that have resisted it and ask some deep, fundamental questions. Countering the very worst narratives requires context, nuance and time. Which we don’t have much time when people panic and retreat. Before commenting it like an ugly floor tile.

There is some good news: Trump is old, and he won’t be around forever. The bad news? What made Trump possible is part of a longer-term trend that needs defanging. The illiberal forces that want to make American elections less competitive can be defeated, but only if people work together, avoid purity tests, and remember that compromise isn’t betrayal. We must remember democracy is not the default and liberal democracy needs to be defended.