September 2022 - ResistTheSun

Mini budget, making of a financial crisis

UK government announced a mini-budget, part of it would be measures to deal with rising energy costs. Details finally become public, universal blanket support with average cost capped. Business energy costs again average price is limited, 6 months compared to 2 years for the public. Idea behind it is incentive to reduce energy usage.

Energy generators have been making record profits, estimated to be about £170 billion. Reason is gas prices being linked to general energy unit costs. Some producers have seen no raising costs but huge profits as prices rise. Windfall tax on excess profits and delinking gas prices from energy generation would make sense but that was ruled out. Govt intervention was needed as the market became dysfunctional. Global problem as energy supplies and high demand pushed up prices.

Mini-budget proposed went far further than just the energy support package. At least we got some more details but for many businesses already too late. Normally markets barely move, markets do listen and react. Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng plan for growth was unfunded tax cuts for the rich, higher borrowing and limited details on supply style reforms. Kwasi economic credibility was destroyed by his own budget and actions. That not normal at all and unlikely to calm markets if he stays in post. UK is now facing weaker pound which means higher inflation and higher borrowing costs. Higher inflation means higher interest rates, lowering house prices and increasing borrowing costs overall. Markets are going bake in higher prices as insurance against the risky budget ideas. Punishing and warning the government to avoid doing stupid ideas.

Supply style reforms with no real details mixed with tax cuts to boost demand. Plan for growth is going to end up reducing growth, any growth gained is wiped out. Estimates of how much growth from the reforms about 0.1%. UK is now facing further spending cuts, inflation is eating into budgets. Real easy obvious supply side reforms like reducing NHS backlogs and waiting times not on the table. Nothing to boost skills or training. Nothing on childcare nothing on well anything but tax cuts for the few. UK could borrow to fund these things, apart from tax cuts. Borrowing costs would go up but not by that much.

UK is facing a toxic mix of poor policy choices, under funding of public services and trade barriers with the EU. Everything that is happening right now is by choice. Planning reform was promised again but no real details. Against this backdrop UK wants to scrap EU laws it voted to keep. Reaction against the UK budget was not due one policy idea but all of it. Being forced to pick what bits you want to keep but can’t have it all. Liz Truss now faces a painful U turn against her policy platform, she could ignore it but pay a heavy price. UK is now likely to go into a deep recession without further support unlikely to recover in time for a general election. Creating the conditions for defeat and just from one short budget. Bank of England had to step in to protect pension funds.

Lizz Truss should own this mess and quickly learn from it. Speaking this morning and doubling down has not helped. Long list of people who think UK needs to change course but only two voices matter on the subject. Three weeks into the job and not making a good start.

Death of Queen Elizabeth ii

Queen Elizabeth ii passed away Thursday afternoon, 8th of September 2022. For 7 decades she was a symbol of continuity, a source of stability and order. Kingdom in turmoil the British public would turn to her, crown soft power and hold remained strong under her reign. I was in denial her reign would end, she had become an ethereal figure in British life. Reign that saw the birth of the commonwealth, modern Britain trying to find its place in the world. Just like when she came to the throne the kingdom is in turmoil, with economy and politics with a sense of malaise.

Unlikely to see another Queen during my lifetime and reign as long. Remarkable women whose sense of duty and values are lacking these days. Of course, we never truly knew who the Queen was, mystery gave the crown its strength. She did care about her subjects, serving them and listening. Her death did cause me a tear, reflecting on my own grief.

I wish King Charles the best of luck, got big shoes to fill. I do have a republican lean but I can see the value of the royal family. In my own way must mourn her passing, the end of an era. She has reminded me to be my best self and that public duty is important.

Paul Keating former Australian prime minister

In the 20th century, the self became privatised, while the public realm, the realm of the public good, was broadly neglected.

Queen Elizabeth II understood this and instinctively attached herself to the public good against what she recognised as a tidal wave of private interest and private reward. And she did this for a lifetime. Never deviating.

She was an exemplar of public leadership, married for a lifetime to political restraint, remaining always, the constitutional monarch.

To the extent that an hereditary monarch can ever reflect the will or conscience of a people, in the case of Britain, Queen Elizabeth II assimilated a national consciousness reflecting every good instinct and custom the British people possessed and held to their heart.

In a 70-year reign, she was required to meet literally hundreds of thousands of officials – presidents, prime ministers, ministers, premiers, mayors and municipal personalities.

It was more than one person should ever have been asked to do.

But Queen Elizabeth II’s stoicism and moralism welded her to the task and with it, the idea of monarchy.

Her exceptionally long, dedicated reign is unlikely to be repeated; not only in Britain, but in the world generally.

With her passing her example of public service remains with us as a lesson in dedication to a lifelong mission in what she saw as the value of what is both enduringly good and right.