Venezuela: Great Powers Setting Precedent Again

The U.S. has attacked Venezuela and taken President Nicolás Maduro into custody. He is now the former president. The Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has already taken over as interim leader with the blessing of the White House and the Venezuelan Supreme Court but more on that later. The Supreme Court has technically given her a 90 day mandate while the military under Vladimir Padrino López has already pledged its loyalty to her. This raises some serious questions about her leadership and American demands and exactly what they want.

The most striking part of this was the speed. Within just three hours Maduro was found and taken. That is the “easy part” completed. While the Europeans watched the lightning-fast operation unfold American forces under the name Operation Absolute Resolve were attacking air defenses and military sites and radar stations and airports and docks. They were softening things up for the helicopters to come in. All of this happened while Delta Force and likely CIA operators seized Maduro in a pre-dawn raid that apparently involved over 150 aircraft. The force included F-22s and F-35s and B-1 bombers and numerous drones all coordinated from the southern Caribbean. By the time most Americans had even woken up on Saturday it was all said and done. Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores were processed on the USS Iwo Jima before being flown to Stewart Air National Guard Base in New York.

Publicly the reason given is an indictment for drug and gun charges. Attorney General Pam Bondi announced the narcoterrorism charges specifically in the Southern District of New York. Privately I doubt that’s the real “why.” Juan Orlando Hernández former Honduran president, was found guilty on similar charges. But Trump pardoned him, wiping out the very serious conviction. By overriding that conviction, the United States risks undermining its own justice system’s credibility, signaling that even the highest-level officials may be shielded when it suits political or strategic interests. 

If you look at the National Security Strategy (NSS) it spells it out. This is about spheres of influence and controlling resources and immigration. He refused to play ball. Washington simply wanted him gone and took action. There is a long history here with certain people like Marco Rubio spending years pushing for Maduro to be removed. This means Rubio seems to have Trump’s ear. Rubio is a Cuban-American who really does not like that regime and he has his eye on Cuba. This allows an oil blockade against them because the two nations are connected and need each other. Now that link has been possibly cut. If this goes tits up this will matter because Rubio is far more friendly to Ukraine than the rest of Trump’s inner circle. Maduro wanted to talk and now he will be doing his talking in a United States court. He is currently being held at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn. This follows months of building pressure from blockades to the seizing of oil tankers. That is what we know so far.

Fallout and Many Questions

I have so many questions. Let’s start with what we know. The Trump administration lied to Congress saying it had no plans for regime change or military action. It remains to be seen if Congress does anything about Trump doing whatever the hell he wants. The precedent here is no action. The Senate was actually due to vote on this matter Monday which is a bit late all things considered. Possible political fallout does appear but signs so far are not great. Seems to be no real limit to Trump power. We could be reaching the peak but depends on the outcome of the midterms and if he goes for a 3rd term. But from looks of things his health seems to be an issue and he not “allowed” but who knows. Perhaps he finds a way.

The administration is bending definitions calling this a “law enforcement operation” rather than an invasion or act of war. In reality it is all of these things. It’s a bold claim that I can’t see standing up in court but given how the Supreme Court has essentially given Trump unlimited power it is mute power really. The referee is firmly biased and events move faster than the courts. The NSS actually calls this the “Don Doctrine” as a modern version of the Monroe Doctrine. It basically says the US will deny non-Hemispheric competitors the right to own strategically vital assets in our half of the world. Monroe had a strategy in mind but Trump has his whims. Not really a doctrine more of an “I have the power” move. Power behind Trump is pulling the strings here which means you should pay attention to these trends and ideas. Business as usual is dead for the Republicans. Americans have always been benders of the rules and this just weakens international law further. We are seeing America act like a “Great Power” from the history books. To the Europeans and everybody else the “rules-based order” is dying before our eyes.

Trump has taken military action without Congressional approval. Trump even went as far as saying the U.S. will essentially run the country until a transition is ready. The sword of damocles hangs over rulers right now and there are so many questions regarding that specific comment. While there may be a political price to pay for failing to deal with inflation here it seems blowback won’t happen. However Dems can use this against him as “focused on them not you.” It’s an attack line that writes itself really. But let’s be clear that kidnapping a leader and forcing regime change is illegal. Yet there is no pushback from his party even after his administration aggressively attacked seven nations in 2025. The question remains whether voters will push back against Trump’s actions and inactions.

The Precedent of “Might Makes Right”

With great power comes great responsibility. Yes Maduro was a bad man but I don’t think this was the right way. The precedent this sets is dangerous. If a Great Power doesn’t like your leadership you simply go in and remove them and charge them with whatever crimes you want. It isn’t hard to imagine the Russians or Chinese doing such a thing. Setting the precedent gives them a blank check to do the same action. This is why rules and norms exist. It strikes me as rather reckless and “be damned of the consequences.” See the problem? Many bad people in history have used the argument that “they deserved it” as an argument to break rules and norms and the constitution and morals and ethics.

Worth remembering that this is nothing new. Exactly 36 years ago to the day Americans invaded Panama to take a dictator out of office. That just one example more exist. What I’m saying here is that celebrating this is misguided. Track record is not great. Upholding norms and rules matter otherwise the same forces used abroad can be used against you at home. Don’t believe me? Look at what ICE is doing right now.

My suggestion is reading some history and looking at reality now. Spotting propaganda is key. Apply some critical thinking while ignoring information designed to cause outrage. Such high level skills are now needed. You have to block the noise and the outrage loops to see the strategic movement. Sadly I never understood just how partisan US politics had become and how toxic the information ecosystem was. Now I have a reminder about it and it worries me. Ray of information that shines a light on something I don’t often see. It was not long ago the US saw an insurrection. I would suggest applying some critical thinking skills here. Take a long hard look in the mirror and ask yourself if this is the sort of politics you want? Democracy is not the default option.

The “Deal with the Devil”

The exchange of power has been suspiciously smooth which hints at an internal coup taking place with the Americans helping it along. It looks like a trade of Maduro for oil and mineral rights and a move toward American interests. Normally you don’t give up a leader without someone on the inside swapping sides. The Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has seized power at the behest of the Trump admin. The brother and sister combo of Jorge and Delcy Rodríguez look to have taken power while the Cuban allies of Maduro have been humiliated. Despite her public “anti-imperialist” rhetoric Trump says she’s “willing to do what’s necessary.” Democracy in action. She is a technocrat who has managed the oil industry for years and Trump’s team clearly thinks she is someone who will play ball to protect American interests.

Venezuela has two political wings which are Chavismo and the “Maduros.” From the outside it looks like this was a power struggle and Maduro lost it. Decades of rule from both camps have hollowed out institutions and destroyed the state and almost the opposition. Circling back on Cuba for a second. Cuba has been dependent on oil from the nation and has been holding up the regime. That alliance looks to have collapsed and the noose is around the neck of Cuba. America can now apply a very painful oil blockade against them and Cuban leadership will be watching their backs now. The question is what promises were made to the Americans? Deal must have been cut to allow them to stay in power. Trump admitted the CIA was inside and they look to have penetrated his inner circle. That is why Maduro is now in New York.

He stole an election so no legitimate government remains. However the legitimate government which is the opposition has been sidelined. The Americans have already poured cold water on the idea of letting them take over. The legit winners of the last election have been screwed over. This means it looks like the existing regime made a deal with the devil to avoid the same fate as Maduro. Dirty quick cheap deal. Trump making it clear that if you don’t play ball then you’re next. The new boss looks like the old boss just under the direction of the Americans who want to push foreign influence out of the western hemisphere. They are targeting Chinese interests specifically while the Russians have been exposed as weak. I have a feeling Russian interests will be left untouched if allowed to grow with Americans making deals with them otherwise it is yet another source of foreign currency that Russia has lost just when they need it.

The human cost is staggering. We are talking about 8 million people already displaced. 3 million in Colombia 1.6 million Peru and Ecuador and Brazil and Chile and across the Caribbean millions have escaped to these places. Further instability will only drive more people to flee yet the very people taking over are the ones who helped create the crisis. Not hard to see more people spilling over to escape. Causing even more problems. Venezuela was once rich but since 1999 it went backwards. Mismanagement and corruption and Maduro carrying on the failed policies of Hugo Chávez destroyed the state. They allowed an economic crisis to take hold that dropped living standards by 80 percent since 2013 while criminal gangs and illegal gold mining took over.

The New Age of Spheres

The goal is clear which is oil and minerals and alignment. The ports and docks and more must be in American hands. So much for the “free market.” The NSS makes it clear they want a hemisphere “free of hostile foreign ownership of key assets.”

If I’m a betting man then immigration plays a role here too. The NSS explicitly links “regional stability” to stopping “destabilizing population flows.” Not hard to see the Trump admin beginning to deport the 1.1 million Venezuelans settled in America back home. This is especially likely since the Supreme Court allowed the termination of Temporary Protected Status in October 2025 which means most of these people lose their legal right to stay by late 2026. I would not be cheering what has happened right now. I suspect that part of the deal the new regime is paying is allowing that to happen.

Cuba which was reported to be protecting Maduro could be next. The nation has confirmed 32 nationals have died and given the targets it is not hard to draw a conclusion here. They have started a period of mourning too and a nation does not usually do that for civilians. While I am not well versed in Cuban diplomatic messages it is a clear sign. Trump has made threats toward tons of nations in the area. We should not dismiss what Trump says now. Threats about taking Greenland will be ringing in the ears of Denmark. Just yesterday Katie Miller who is a top Trump aide posted a map of Greenland with an American flag and the caption “SOON.” Allies around Trump are already hinting that they will push to annex that next. Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry has even been named a Special Envoy to Greenland to prepare for this. Colombia could be next. Canada and Mexico and the list is growing long. One thing is clear and that is the Trump admin thinks the Western Hemisphere is its backyard. We are back in the Age of Spheres. Latin America is now in play again. Focus is squarely on that area over the rest of the world. For China and Russia this is good news. For Europe that’s bad news because they are in the crosshairs too.

What happens next?

So what happens next? My guess action in Cuba and Greenland and Mexico and Colombia. Three fits the theme around immigration and shutting down the border and asylum into America due being safe. 4th one would cement Trump desire of territory expansion. Actions so far follow a pattern of going after oil and mineral rich nations to secure them. Nigeria oil, Venezuela oil and Greenland minerals and location are all on the list. I do not think it is hard to understand the motive here. So what does Trump gain from all of this? My guess is the promise of lower gas prices at the pump. Somebody has told him this is an easy quick win and making a bit of extra money while getting the political bonus of lower gas prices for the midterms. Will it work, no, but it does mean somebody can start deporting people on mass. Latinos who voted for trump over immgiration are getting a rude awaking. Good news for democrats this yet another mill stone to hang around Trump neck. With right message they can exploit the mistake and hubis being shown here. I’m an outsider but as you can see I have taken my time to consideer and research. Leaning on experts to help inform me.

I would recommend people read the National Security Strategy. I’ve already written a summary of it and I will post that today. That’s my quick thoughts on the subject for anybody who was curious. What should the world do about a G zero world with an unreliable America? About to find out and old system is now over.