Syrian tragedy
Syria’s Civil War: A Fragile Coalition of Enemies
Syria’s civil war is one of the most complex and bloody conflicts in modern history. As a non-expert, I’ll try to break down the situation, explain the key players, and provide an overview of recent developments. This war, which started over a decade ago, is anything but simple.
A Brief History of the Civil War
Syria’s civil war began in 2011 during the Arab Spring protests. What started as demonstrations against President Bashar al-Assad’s government escalated into a full-scale war. Government crackdowns turned into violent insurgencies, with rebels receiving support from NATO and the Gulf Cooperation Council. Meanwhile, Assad’s regime was backed by Iran and Russia.
Russia’s airstrikes, which began in 2015, devastated rebel-controlled cities, while Iran deployed proxy forces to help Assad. Even Israel got involved, targeting Islamic State (IS) fighters and gathering intelligence on Iran’s proxies.
By late 2018, the rebels had lost almost all their territory, holding only a few strongholds. The war seemed frozen, but new developments have reignited the conflict.
The Rise and Fall of Islamic State
In 2014, the Islamic State emerged as a major threat, taking territory from both the rebels and the government. However, by 2017, an international coalition had largely defeated IS, though the group remains an insurgent threat in eastern Syria.
Adding to the chaos, Turkey launched a 2016 invasion against IS, the Kurds, and the Syrian government. This multi-front conflict highlighted just how many factions are involved in Syria’s war.
A Stalemate That Shattered
For years, Syria was locked in a frozen conflict. Assad controlled much of the country, while rebels, including the Kurds and the Free Syrian Army, held smaller regions. The United States supported some rebel groups, while Turkey backed others—often creating tensions between the two NATO allies.
In 2019, a U.S. withdrawal from Syria left the Kurds vulnerable to Turkish attacks. The Kurds struck a deal with Assad for protection, but this alliance of convenience did little to change the overall stalemate.
Two recent events have now shattered this fragile balance:
- The war in Gaza.
- Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
Iran and Israel’s Proxy War
Iran has long used Syria as a base for its proxies, including Hezbollah, to counter Israel and project power in the region. However, Israel’s retaliation to attacks by Iranian-backed Hamas in Gaza has decimated Iran’s proxy network. Hezbollah, which operates in both Syria and Lebanon, has suffered heavy losses in leadership, forcing it into a ceasefire.
These setbacks have significantly weakened Iran’s influence in Syria, making it harder for Tehran to maintain its regional dominance.
Israel’s Proxy War with Iran
Israel’s long-running proxy war with Iran is fundamentally about self-preservation. While Israel is strong enough to withstand most threats, its main objective is to reduce Iranian influence and ensure its own security.
A key area of interest is the Golan Heights, which shares a border with Syria. While some Israelis see the region as a strategic buffer zone, others view it through the lens of settlement expansion, adding to regional mistrust and unease.
Israel is particularly concerned about the possibility of terrorists, chemical weapons, or Iranian arms crossing into its territory. Beyond immediate threats, Israel seeks to degrade Iran’s ability to wage a shadow proxy war against it.
Looming in the background is the existential worry of Iran becoming a nuclear-armed state, which would make it the second in the region after Israel’s own unofficial nuclear capability.
Russia’s Waning Role
Russia, one of Assad’s main backers, has been weakened by its war in Ukraine. With resources stretched thin, Moscow can no longer provide meaningful support in Syria.
Russia’s naval and airbases in Syria remain strategically important, but its broader ambitions in the region have been curtailed. Both are used to supply Russian proxy forces in Africa and Assad’s regime. Once heavily reliant on Russian support, Assad’s regime is now showing signs of vulnerability. Russia used Syria to help provoke a refugee crisis in Europe and instability. Now it faces it own interests suffering from instability caused by its actions.
A Fragile Alliance of Frenemies
The rebels have taken advantage of Russia’s and Iran’s declining influence. Groups like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), once linked to al-Qaeda, have forged uneasy alliances with other opposition factions. While HTS remains controversial, its cooperation with other groups has strengthened the rebel coalition.
Turkey has played a crucial role, providing support to rebel factions while working to suppress Kurdish autonomy movements. Ankara’s involvement reflects both nationalist ambitions and a desire to reshape Syria’s future.
Interestingly, reports suggest that rebel-held areas have avoided widespread atrocities. Local elders have mediated disputes, creating a semblance of order amid the chaos.
Turkey: What Do They Want?
Turkey’s objectives in Syria extend beyond countering Kurdish nationalist movements. A key priority is reducing Iran’s influence and addressing the millions of Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey, which have caused significant political unrest and domestic pressure.
However, there’s also an element of self-interest. Turkey sees a major opportunity to rebuild Syria and strengthen economic ties with the region. By doing so, it can not only diminish Iran’s and Russia’s influence but also gain significant leverage over both in economic and military terms.
Russia is already adapting to this new reality, as Turkey asserts itself as a key player in shaping Syria’s future.
Assad’s Mistakes and Collapse
Despite growing pressures, Assad refused to compromise. At a summit with Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Qatar, he was offered a way out but declined. This stubbornness, combined with economic collapse and defections from his army, has led to his regime’s rapid downfall.
Rebels are now advancing toward key cities like Damascus and Homs. Taking Homs would isolate the capital, dealing a significant blow to Assad’s remaining forces.
Iran and Russia Cut Their Losses
Assad’s defeat has forced Iran and Russia to reconsider their positions. Both countries have realized that salvaging his regime would require far more resources than they can afford. Iran, while weakened, may still maintain some influence through its remaining proxies.
Russia faces a greater loss: its warm-water port in Syria is critical for resupplying its African proxies and sustaining its global strategy. Losing it would be a major humiliation. Meanwhile, Iran’s loss of its land bridge to its proxies complicates resupply efforts, though it retains regional allies for now.
What’s Next for Syria?
The fall of Assad marks the end of one chapter but opens many questions about Syria’s future. Possible scenarios include:
- A divided Syria, with different factions controlling separate regions.
- A prolonged insurgency, as rival groups vie for power.
- International mediation, though it’s unclear who would lead this effort—Turkey, Qatar, or another power?
Rebuilding Syria will require significant international support. Without it, the country risks descending into another brutal conflict.
A Fragile Victory
Assad has reportedly fled Syria, leaving the country in rebel hands. While this is a stunning turnaround, the coalition of rebels must now prove they can govern effectively. With Turkey holding significant influence, the international community will watch closely to see if peace can be maintained.
For Syria, the road ahead remains uncertain.
This conflict is filled with twists and turns, where friends and enemies often switch roles. I have focused primarily on the main players to provide an overview of the war, but there are countless other actors and layers of history that shape Syria’s ongoing tragedy.
Conclusion and Wrap-Up
Syria’s future hangs in the balance, divided among four powerful factions with conflicting goals. The U.S.-backed groups in the south, Kurdish forces in the northeast, Turkish-backed Islamist groups in the northwest, and Turkey itself all have stakes in the outcome.
Turkey’s dual objectives—repatriating Syrian refugees while undermining Kurdish autonomy—highlight the complexity of the conflict. This tug-of-war between regional powers risks sidelining the voices of the Syrian people, who remain most affected by the chaos.
Ultimately, Syria’s fate will depend on whether these external forces prioritize stability over self-interest. Without meaningful cooperation and international support, peace will remain elusive, and the suffering of ordinary Syrians will persist.