US Midterm Elections 2026: Why They Matter to Britain

Tomorrow is the US midterms, the first nationwide vote where millions of Americans get to deliver their verdict on Trump’s second term.

Why should the rest of the world care? What happens in America has a habit of landing on our doorstep. From energy prices to attempts to spread far-right Christian nationalist ideas abroad, Trump’s politics have consequences beyond America’s borders.

So what are the midterms? They take place halfway through a president’s term. The whole House of Representatives is re-elected, along with a third of the Senate. There are also state and local elections. On paper, Republicans have a strong position, holding the House, the Senate and the White House, although their majorities in Congress are narrow.

Accountability

The president’s party normally loses ground in the midterms. If Democrats take control of the House or Senate, it could make Trump’s life much harder.

So far, Republicans have largely been unwilling to scrutinise his administration. Meanwhile, efforts to redraw electoral maps and restrict voting have raised concerns about how far the party is prepared to go to hold on to power. Trump’s administration has also tried to increase federal influence over elections, with some efforts facing legal resistance.

Given Trump’s refusal to accept his 2020 defeat, his role in the events surrounding January 6th and his pardons of people who took part, these concerns shouldn’t be dismissed.

There’s a bigger ideological movement behind this, too. Trump’s agenda draws on ideas associated with the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, and people involved in writing it have joined his administration.

Some influential figures support unitary executive theory, which argues for strong presidential control over the executive branch. Critics worry this weakens the checks and balances designed to prevent a president from accumulating too much power.

Curtis Yarvin has argued for a much more authoritarian form of government. His ideas have found an audience among influential figures, including JD Vance, while Peter Thiel is part of the wider network of wealthy tech figures and donors reshaping the American right.

These people and their connections matter because the ideas around Trump could outlast him. His return to office has already raised questions about America’s reliability as an ally. The prospect of these ideas becoming more mainstream, and spreading abroad, is deeply worrying.

Affordability

In 2024, enough voters were prepared to overlook Trump’s behaviour because they wanted him to tackle inflation and immigration and shake things up.

Has he delivered?

Tariffs have added to costs, while the war with Iran has pushed energy prices higher, adding to inflationary pressures. The cost of living remains a major concern for voters, and Trump’s dismissal of those concerns as a hoax has not helped his party.

His immigration crackdown has raised serious concerns about enforcement practices, deaths involving ICE officers and deportations to countries with which people have no connection. He has also pursued people through the legal system who investigated him, while facing questions about corruption and personal profits from the presidency.

Trump promised change. Instead, many voters are facing chaos, cuts and higher prices.

Some may stay at home, while others could switch their votes. Even traditionally safe Republican seats could become more competitive if enough voters decide they’ve had enough.

Rural communities are feeling pressure from fuel costs, too. There’s also growing opposition to data centres, which can drive up demand for electricity and water. Add concerns about subsidies and tax breaks for major tech companies, and Republicans risk alienating parts of their own base.

The war

The war in the Middle East has created an energy price shock with consequences across the world, adding to political pressure in Europe and Asia.

Britain is feeling the effects, too. Higher energy costs and borrowing costs limit the government’s room for manoeuvre, on top of longer-term economic problems and entrenched interests. For Prime Minister Andy Burnham, that means difficult choices about spending, borrowing and helping households.

If manifesto promises become impossible to deliver, the government may have to reconsider its plans and explain those choices to voters. Making major changes also means confronting vested interests at home.

Then there’s the wider influence of American far-right and Christian nationalist politics. Political connections and money flowing between countries raise questions about how much influence these movements can exert on Britain’s own politics, particularly when rules on political funding struggle to keep pace.

We might not be voting in these midterms, but we aren’t insulated from the outcome.

If Republicans lose control of Congress, Trump will still be president. I worry that, rather than accept the limits being placed on him, he could lash out. Relations with Britain are already strained, and a president who takes opposition personally can remain dangerous even when his domestic powers face greater scrutiny.

Losing Congress would make it harder for Trump to pass laws without compromise and give his opponents more opportunities to investigate his administration. It wouldn’t remove his executive powers or guarantee a less confrontational approach abroad.

Accountability, affordability and a war. These are the issues facing American voters, and the consequences won’t stop at America’s borders.