The middle – US presidential election

The U.S. presidential election will take time to analyze as we wait for data to explain the outcome. I’ve posted some early, sleep-deprived thoughts here. Trump’s gains were widespread, so any explanations should start there. The incumbent’s party lost, following a familiar pattern—recent incumbents have often lost for similar reasons. Voters were fed up with high inflation, and the incumbent didn’t address their concerns. Here’s a chart showing global voting patterns, and another highlighting trends from the 2024 U.S. election.

Red Dawn

Trump didn’t just improve his margins in swing states; he made gains in Democratic strongholds too. Harris’s campaign managed to swim against very strong currents, losing by only a small margin in seven swing states. The swing fell within the polling error, which isn’t bad, but this defeat feels more significant than 2016. It’s a harsh loss that will demand a complete rethink and strategic response moving forward. The forces that put Trump in the White House could easily turn against him, but I wouldn’t bet on it. There’s a much deeper trend here—one that’s been building for years and has now solidified. Non-graduate voters shifting from Democrats to Republicans has been ongoing, but now, non-white working-class voters are following the path of their white counterparts. One positive: Black voters have largely remained loyal to the Democrats. A good starting point for analysis could be the working-class boroughs in New York City. This chart from Nate Silver illustrates the long-standing issue Democrats face.

Help!

It’s not that voters are in love with Trump or his policies—they just want him to fix inflation and the cost-of-living crisis. Many are deeply frustrated with the political system and the economy. Ironically, while Republicans have helped break the system, Democrats are taking the blame. Most people don’t follow politics closely; they care more about gas prices, eggs, and other essentials. It’s only when things get chaotic that they tune in. So, when Trump talked about gas prices, many voters turned out for him and tuned out the rest. Trump is still unpopular, and that’s a huge problem: if he oversteps his mandate—which he’s likely to—it’ll store up trouble down the line. His win isn’t a vindication; it’s about people wanting him to make them feel better off. Failing to deliver will cause issues, from policies that could trigger an inflationary spiral to deportations affecting people who never expected it to happen to them.

Twist and Shout

Smart Republicans should take note and avoid indulging their worst impulses. Like the Democrats, they’re likely to face internal conflicts—free-trade business interests versus protectionism, or the desire for social security programs versus cutting government spending. Billionaire libertarians and the highly educated elite want different things. Republican leaders without degrees have a stronger grasp of what the non-graduate majority feels and have tapped into that sentiment. Democrats could learn from their opponents, especially about how people consume news today. The far right now has a new breeding ground based on old ideas. Engaging in unfamiliar or even unfriendly spaces and fostering new media networks could be essential. The elephant in the room is disinformation and misinformation—Republicans have ruthlessly exploited this, along with the far right leaking ideas into the right mainstream.

Under the Waves

There’s also a chance for a reset here, with the next battle coming in just two years at the midterms. Time hasn’t stopped, and history hasn’t ended—it’s about getting back up after being knocked down. Rethinking is required to handle a political force like Trump. A fresh perspective is essential, but it’s going to be painful—a real catch-22. Polarisation among educated voters makes shifting rightward on some issues challenging. “Sacred cows” that are non-negotiable leave many voters thinking, “You don’t speak for me.” As a British progressive, I can say this is incredibly painful and a global challenge for centre-left parties. Failing to deliver what voters want could quickly turn the tide, but that won’t solve the larger problem. After three straight defeats over 14 years, the UK Labour Party came back from its worst defeat to its largest majority by ditching several unpopular stances and making changes. Nothing is set in stone.

We also won’t know turnout details for a while or whether voters switched allegiances or simply stayed home, feeling torn between Trump and Harris.

Owner of a Lonely Heart

Expanding on the Labour Party example, Democrats can make a comeback too, but it will require hard work and a deep understanding of the challenge ahead. To put it another way—didn’t Republicans make a massive comeback after Obama? My heart breaks with you; the grief will take time to process. Rebuilding won’t be easy, and it will require some genuinely painful compromises. Talk to Republicans about how much they had to change with Trump. Political apathy will only give Trump and his allies more power—they’re counting on it, and with the level of grief you’re likely feeling now, losing trust in the process makes sense. I know what that feels like. As I said earlier, it’s going to require a shift in perspective and some serious rethinking.

Sense of Direction

Ignoring legitimate grievances is how we got here. Trying to shame people won’t help your cause. Labeling people as racists or fascists won’t stop them from voting for far-right nationalist parties. So maybe it’s time to focus on listening to them. Speaking of which, moderates fared far better than others. Calling people “garbage” only causes them to shut down before you can even speak. I speak from experience on that. I don’t have all the answers, and frankly, it’s going to take time before anyone does. The worst thing you can do is double down on a failed approach.

Don’t Look Back in Anger

Defiance and resilience are needed. Let’s avoid hyperbole and over-the-top rhetoric. Yes, tensions are high, and so is fear, but we should treat each other with kindness. Actions speak louder than words, and America could use some kindness right now.

Lost in the Echo

The hard truth is that the Democratic Party has failed to speak to voters in a straightforward way. This was a party failure, not a single person’s fault—not Biden’s or Harris’s alone. The party focused on news channels most ordinary people don’t watch and disconnected itself from the pulse of American life. Closing note: everything will be okay, if you listen to the message voters have just sent.

I may have included some song references in this blog post. See if you can spot them.