British summer general election

As the rain pours outside Number 10 Downing Street, the 2024 election campaign kicks off, with a stark contrast to Keir Starmer’s composed appearance in a pre-recorded message. The choice between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer is a choice between maintaining the status quo or opting for change. Despite calling the election, Sunak appears to have little control over unfolding events. After six long weeks, the campaign is nearing its end. The United Kingdom is in a sorry state, with leaky roofs and shattered windows symbolizing better days gone by. Voters are angry as nothing seems to work anymore, stemming from four key themes: broken trust, incompetence, and instability

Summary of the Past 14 Years

Let’s begin with a concise overview of the current situation. The Conservative Party, often nicknamed the Tories, took office in 2010 under a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. They cut public spending, promising to cut waste rather than frontline services—an ideology-driven choice that would define the next decade and have costly consequences. This approach influenced both the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, where the union won, and the 2015 general election, where the Conservatives won an outright majority. David Cameron’s decision to hold a referendum on Britain’s European Union membership led to his resignation in 2016 after the vote to leave the EU, which shattered his authority overnight.”

Theresa May defeat, despair and deadlock

Theresa May succeeded Cameron with the task of healing the country, uniting the party, and managing the EU exit. The issue of Europe had torn the party apart for decades, with toxic campaigns dividing families and nations. Worse, nobody had a clear idea of what leaving the EU would entail. May’s approach involved dealing with the complexities behind closed doors, setting out red lines in speeches but leaving no room for flexibility. Given the party’s deep divisions, this approach was naive. She needed to reach out and build cross-party support, but Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour firebrand socialist leader, made this even harder. British politics became increasingly partisan. Under political pressure, she triggered the process of leaving the EU, and in 2017, one month after starting Article 50, she gambled by calling a snap election. Her botched campaign saw Labour surge during the final weeks, hoping to secure a majority to strengthen her negotiating hand. The gambit failed, and she lost her slim majority. The next two years saw parliamentary deadlock over any Brexit deal. In July 2019, after failing three times to pass her deal, she resigned in tears, worn out by months of drama.

Boris Johnson: Populist Pressure, Partygate, and Pandemic

Boris Johnson, the charismatic yet controversial figure, succeeded Theresa May, promising to “Get Brexit Done.” His bold, populist approach resonated with many voters frustrated by the prolonged Brexit process. Johnson’s leadership was marked by a mix of flamboyance and controversy. His ability to connect with the electorate secured a decisive victory in the 2019 general election, delivering the largest Conservative majority since Margaret Thatcher.

However, Johnson’s tenure was far from smooth. The COVID-19 pandemic tested his government’s resilience and decision-making skills. While the early handling of the pandemic faced criticism for delays and mixed messaging, the rapid rollout of the vaccine was seen as a significant achievement. Despite these successes, Johnson’s leadership faced severe scrutiny during the “Partygate” scandal, where allegations of lockdown breaches at Downing Street gatherings damaged his reputation and trust with the public. The pressures of governance during unprecedented times, coupled with internal party conflicts and growing dissatisfaction, eventually led to his resignation in July 2022.

Liz Truss: A Turbulent Tenure

Liz Truss’s short-lived tenure as Prime Minister was marked by economic turmoil and political instability. Inheriting a party and country reeling from the pandemic and Brexit’s aftermath, her bold economic policies, particularly the controversial mini-budget, aimed at stimulating growth but instead triggered financial market chaos. The proposed tax cuts, unfunded spending, and regulatory changes led to a sharp increase in borrowing costs and a plunge in the pound’s value.

Truss’s inability to stabilize the economy or garner support from her party and the public resulted in a dramatic loss of confidence. Her leadership faced mounting criticism from within her party, the opposition, and financial experts. After just 44 days in office, Truss resigned, marking one of the shortest premierships in British history. Her brief and turbulent tenure underscored the deep-seated issues within the Conservative Party and the challenges facing any leader in the current political climate.

Rishi Sunak: Stability Amidst Uncertainty

Rishi Sunak’s rise to the premiership came with a promise of stability and competence. Known for his tenure as Chancellor, where he played a pivotal role in navigating the economic challenges of the pandemic, Sunak was seen as a steady hand capable of steering the country through turbulent times. His leadership focused on economic recovery, addressing inflation, and managing the cost-of-living crisis that had gripped the nation.

Sunak’s approach emphasized fiscal responsibility and pragmatic solutions to the pressing issues facing the country. However, his premiership was not without challenges. The lingering effects of Brexit, geopolitical tensions, and the ongoing economic difficulties required careful and strategic governance. Sunak’s ability to deliver on his promises and restore public trust was critical as the country approached the 2024 general election.

Keir Starmer: The Labour Alternative

Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party, presented himself as a stark contrast to the Conservative leadership. A former lawyer with a reputation for meticulousness and integrity, Starmer aimed to rebuild Labour’s credibility and appeal to a broad spectrum of voters. His leadership focused on addressing the issues of inequality, public services, and the need for political integrity.

Starmer’s strategy involved distancing Labour from the far-left elements that had defined the party under Jeremy Corbyn and positioning it as a pragmatic and responsible alternative to the Conservatives. His emphasis on rebuilding the NHS, investing in education, and addressing climate change resonated with many voters disillusioned by years of Conservative rule. As the 2024 general election approached, Starmer’s challenge was to unite his party, present a compelling vision for the future, and convince the electorate that Labour was ready to govern.

The State of the Nation

As the 2024 general election loomed, the United Kingdom faced a critical juncture. The past decade had been marked by political upheaval, economic challenges, and societal divisions. Voters were weary of broken promises, incompetence, and instability. The choice between Sunak and Starmer symbolized a broader decision about the country’s direction: continuity or change.

The upcoming election would be pivotal in determining the future path of the UK. It was not just a contest between two leaders but a reflection of the nation’s desire for effective governance, stability, and a hopeful vision for the future. As the campaign drew to a close, the stakes could not be higher, and the outcome would shape the UK for years to come.

Polling and priorities

Dozens of poll trackers, static Labour leads between 10-20%. Poll tracker electionmaps, BBC, Politico, Sky, all show the same thing. Taken from my blog post on 30th of April I said the following.

Polls show that the Labour Party maintains a 14-20% lead over the Conservatives. That trend, started in late 2021, has persisted for the past two years. Source for that claim, politico, BBC, Guardian, Sky news.  With other polling data also indicating negative sentiment toward the Conservative party. Approval of government here from YouGov. Here Ipsos tracking how approvals for various issues. Point is these numbers are not good news, once trust is gone voters don’t listen. No party has recovered while being this far behind on all the important measures. Even if you assume the best-case recovery happens, the Labour lead would still be 4-6%. All these numbers point towards defeat. Yet, we don’t know what sort of defeat is going to happen. Four possible outcomes here, small defeat, big defeat, wipe out and extinction event.

The current situation is dire, large defeat looms and a wipeout looks possible. The best case is 1997 style defeat, the worst case ranges from 100 to 20 seats. Dangerous close if current polling models are correct to a wipeout. Rock solid safe seats now look like they are competitive. Yet to dawn on many Tory Members of Parliament, how screwed they are. Until the last couple of weeks when they rushed to defend their seats. This message has finally seen the message change, almost conceding defeat. Mixed messaging will cause alarm in the party ranks. Polls are static with little to no real movement. The smallest movement in support could see more seats fall.

Now it’s time to look at voters’ priorities Ipsos, YouGov.

Top 5

1. NHS

2. Inflation

3. Economy

4. Immigration

5. Housing

Party priorities

Tories

1. National service

2. Scrapping national insurance

3. Scrapping the planned tax rise for pensioners, pensions triple lock plus

4. Punitive welfare reforms

5. Cutting something

6. Rwanda deportation going ahead

7. Cap on visa numbers

8. Equality Act changed

9. Stamp duty cut extended for first time buyers

These bold policies grab the attention of a narrow group. Low trust has shaken even the core bedrock of support. That is a problem, promise a moon on a stick. The second problem is does not match voter’s concerns at all. The third problem is trust, nobody believes you can do it. The fourth problem is priorities aimed at the core base to avoid that disappearing.

Labour 6

1. Deliver economy stability

2. Cut NHS waiting times

3. Launch a new border security command

4. Setup great British energy

5. Crackdown on anti-social behaviour

6. Recruit 6,5000 new teachers

Labour aiming at issues voters care about. The heart of the labour plan is reform, repair, renewal and rebuild. Everything Labour wants to do is simple and easy to understand. Delivery is crucial, especially given the current low levels of trust.

Campaign and strategy

Most people no longer consume news the old way. On average 5 minutes of news content a day. How we consume news has changed, read notifications and headlines. Short-form video clips of the news are normal. You watch a video and look up the story. WhatsApp groups between families sharing these clips. Thus making it difficult to track what gets attention. Focus groups can give you insight, playground too. So disinformation and misinformation can spread fast.

Air war and ground war but Labour has the advantage in both. The party has a media team that understands the platforms. Plus a far bigger activist base to campaign for it. The traditional campaign feels old-fashioned compared to the world now. Even the TV debate format feels old and not fit for purpose. Party loyalty disappears moving towards much higher levels of volatility. Even the manifesto is changing, digital over paper copies.

Tory party has reduced resources, after losing so many councillors, and members. Thus a diminished force, after awful local election results. The timing of the election further reduced its capacity, due to the summer holidays. Rishi declared they could go on holiday but called an election days later. Mad rush for candidates when it called the election, makes it look unprepared.

Labour Party spent months preparing, candidates in place and more ready to go. Prerecorded messages are ready with a different background and suit. Bigger membership is hungry for power, coming off a series of successful campaigns. Fresh data ready to door knock. Activist base that is willing to door knock. With a war chest of donation money to spend.

Tory’s strategy has been appeasing, the “Right” of the party who come back for more and more. Stuck in internal fights, drifting away from matters at hand. Purity above all else with no desire to compromise. Thus, the result squeezed from all directions. Arrogance has fostered a sense of self-indulgence. The party has compliancy winning against Labour and Lib dems for so long. Instead, it has ignored the threat from both, focusing on reform. It has been a total failure, Eurosceptics still demand more even after winning.

The weak leadership is unable to confront their internal opponents. It has been a disaster, turning activist issues into major ones. So the cycle repeats until you’re forced into an impossible position. The focus has been on reform voters, not labour or lib dem switchers. Swing voters are now your base, that is an awkward spot. The self-defeating strategy that Nigel Farage is happy to exploit. His goal is to remake the Tory party in his image. Yet they keep giving him air and he keeps reinventing himself.

Rishi Sunak’s slogan has been sticking to the plan. Most people don’t want to stick to the plan. Keir Starmer’s slogan is change, a similar vibe to what most people think. Rishi has made various mistakes, the biggest one cutting short D-Day 80th. That story is now cut through into people’s minds. Risks reinforce an image problem, graffs are adding up. Mistakes could cost seats as people feel disrespected. Rishi Yorkshire seat has one of the biggest military bases in the UK. A safe seat which has seen Rishi campaign in, showing some concern about it. Yet another scandal around betting on the timing of the election. After 2 weeks both candidates saw themselves dropped. Police suspended one of his security detail for betting on the date within 24 hours.

Campaign tail can be unpredictable, no matter how hard you try to control it. Events can happen that throw you off. That makes the D-day story so remarkable, it is an important event yearly. Downing Street feels like a bunker, deep in panic mode. Initially, the Tories focused on defending at-risk seats while gaining more. Later, they shifted tactics—rallying the core vote and pleading for survival. Now, they’re zeroing in on ultra-safe seats and supporting ministers. Labour is aiming for a massive 200+ seat majority.

Struggling to describe how it feels, the mood for change is real. Voters are frustrated by broken promises, non-functioning services, and a lack of trust. As polling day approaches scepticism about the Labour remain. Despite its faults, Labour continues to be ambitious and grounded in reality.

Challenges ahead

Labour has a risk register of challenges facing it which include.

Potential collapse of Thames Water

Public sector pay negotiations

Overcrowding in prisons

Universities going under

NHS funding shortfall

Failing local councils

Labour will inherit significant, crisis-laden economic challenges on top. Electoral volatility generated by weakening partisan allegiance. How long do voters give the party the benefit of the doubt nobody knows yet. Decade of crises and shocks with weaken UK state limits the future govt. Which is what my introduction hinted at. What economic challenges?

UK faces three problems lack of labour, lack of skills, lack of capital. Heart of the problem is failure to build and invest in the future. Faced with higher borrowing costs it has wasted lower borrowing costs. High inflation has reduced public services spending power. Services already dealing with higher demand and less money. Decade or more of spending cuts finally showing it effects. Aging population means the UK needs a higher birthrate. Cost of public services goes up with an older population too. Failure to build enough housing has reduced that birth rate as people can’t start a family. Older people can’t downsize, higher rents reduce demand. Poor growth for wages, productivity for 14 years. Government has failed to invest; private companies have failed to invest. With labour being so cheap no need for automatic car washes. Which means the UK needs some painful reforms. Public services cut to the bone need a major cash injection to avoid collapse.

Labour has a big task ahead, rebuild, repair, reform and renewal. Needs to be honest about the inherited mess.

Labour manifesto – Change

You can read it here, gives a clue about the direction of travel. Manifesto is the start not the end of the process. The House of Lords can’t block anything in the manifesto. I do have some concerns and worries but some promising signs.

5 missions 

This forms the backdrop to the Labour manifesto.

1) Kickstart economic growth to secure the highest sustained growth in the G7 – with good jobs and productivity growth in every part of the country making everyone, not just a few, better off.

2) Make Britain a clean energy superpower to cut bills, create jobs and deliver security with cheaper, zero-carbon electricity by 2030, accelerating to net zero.

3) Take back our streets by halving serious violent crime and raising confidence in the police and criminal justice system to its highest levels.

4) Break down barriers to opportunity by reforming our childcare and education systems, to make sure there is no class ceiling on the ambitions of young people in Britain.

5) Build an NHS fit for the future that is there when people need it; with fewer lives lost to the biggest killers; in a fairer Britain, where everyone lives well for longer.

Delivering the change Britain needs will require perseverance. The starting point for delivering these missions is to ensure the foundations of good government are right. Labour will make sure we have strong national security, secure borders, and economic stability. Building on these secure foundations, we have already set out the first steps for change. Today we present further policies in this manifesto, as part of the journey of rebuilding our country.

I have bolded a couple of words here which are important or repeated.

Economic stability

Our fiscal rules are that:

• The current budget moves into balance, so that day-to-day costs are met by revenues

• Debt must be falling as a share of the economy by the fifth year of the forecast.

Labour plans to keep fiscal rules and remove investment from the rules. Less rules more guidelines or framework. Debt falling stays due to high interest rates. A restraint on public borrowing comes down to gaming forecasts.

 Labour will strike a balance between prioritising investment and the urgent need to rebuild our public finances. There will be no return to austerity.

Square the circle, falling debt, no spending cuts, no tax increases. Labour assumes that OBR upgrades growth forecasts which reduces debt.  That a risky gamble leaves public services in trouble until the Labour budget. Another explanation is Labour resets the narrative in power. Using the benefit of the doubt to do massive tax increases blaming the Tories. Meaning the party can borrow more to spend on public services. Putting faith in stability will yield growth. The danger here is not being honest with low trust asking for trouble. My worry is reform, and improved forecasts won’t lead to growth quickly enough. Public services need extra cash now not later. There are no plans to increase taxes for working people, ruling out the big taxes. That boxes the party in, leaving tax system in a mess. Tax reform is long undue but unpopular.

Rishi keeps pushing the lie about Labour increasing taxes by £2,000 which is a lie. Members of the public have noticed that and listened. Most people understand taxes have to go up to improve public services. Labour signed up to the current impossible plan of £19 billion cuts to public services. Most people only want to pay £10 more which won’t be enough. The danger here of not being honest breaks trust even more. Voters are not stupid they understand public services are in trouble. Due to how low info and disengaged people are you can understand why people are dodging it. Classic line about making tax system fairer and reforming it.

Kickstart growth

Most important point here is the different approaches to markets. Quite a radical shift compared to what came before. Which means more active government. One word that keeps appearing is partnership.  Planning reform and devolution are two key elements here. Focus on industrial strategy, aligned with other priorities. National Wealth Fund to help boost investment in a couple areas. Mixing private and public investment working together. Getting pension funds to invest in UK and review of the returns is good policy. Roadmap of business taxes, along with replacing business rates system.

The next big point is infrastructure which gets it own section. A strategy and planning reform are in the pipeline. National Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority will bring together everybody and deliver. The biggest reform is planning, faster and cheaper.

Transport follows talking about potholes and car insurance. The insurance point is about reducing the rising costs nothing firm on how. Commitment to the transition to electric cars by 2030. Not only that but standardising second hand sales of them. Railways into public ownership, along with Great British Railways. New body to drive up standards. Buses franchise local bus services, lifting the ban on public owned. Powers so more can have unified and integrated transport systems.

Innovation a new body National Data Library, along with safeguarding. R&D institutions to get 10 year budgets. Working with universities, simplify the procurement process overall. Also AI regulation over model and more. The biggest change is co-operative and mutuals sector doubling it in size. Late payments for small businesses and median. Removing barriers and improving access to money. Post office gets banking hubs.  The active state is here, that theme of plans so far but no extra cash yet.

Improving public services is essential to growing our economy across the country. Public service workers have a criticaWhl role to play, but services are suffering from recruitment and retention crises. Labour will act to improve public service workers’ living standards throughout the parliament, and ensure any independent mechanisms have the confidence of all involved.

Vague but dealing with public sector pay issues. Immigration and skill policy, jointed up thinking here to upskill and improve conditions. How they deal with public sector pay will decide how quickly waiting lists can decline.

Conclusion

As the 2024 British summer general election draws to a close, the political landscape reveals a stark contrast between the Conservative and Labour parties. Over the past 14 years, the Conservative Party’s tenure has been marked by a series of tumultuous events and leadership changes, from the austerity measures under David Cameron’s coalition to the Brexit debacles under Theresa May and Boris Johnson, and the economic missteps under Liz Truss. Rishi Sunak’s efforts to restore stability and credibility have been overshadowed by the lasting impacts of his predecessors’ policies and the external challenges facing the nation.

The voters’ frustration is palpable, with the country grappling with high inflation, stagnating economic growth, and public services in disarray. The Conservative Party’s internal conflicts and focus on appeasing its right-wing factions have only exacerbated its decline in popularity. In contrast, the Labour Party, under Keir Starmer, presents a vision of change, addressing key voter concerns such as economic stability, NHS reform, and a renewed focus on education and public safety.

Polling data consistently shows a significant lead for Labour, indicating a strong possibility of a historic victory. However, the challenges awaiting Labour are formidable. The party will inherit a nation in crisis, with economic instability, a strained public sector, and a populace weary of broken promises. Delivering on their ambitious plans will require navigating these immediate crises while rebuilding trust and ensuring long-term growth and stability.

As the UK stands on the brink of potential political transformation, the need for competent governance and effective delivery has never been more critical. The coming months will test Labour’s ability to rise to the occasion and prove that their promises of reform, repair, renewal, and rebuilding can indeed lead the nation towards a brighter future.