Warframe Duviri paradox circuit probability

Durviri Paradox added a new game mode called Circuit. Inspired by a Tenno complaining about the crap weapons being most common. No weighting system so we can do some simple maths. *Correction weighting system does exist for weapons you don’t own and do own, along with warframes.

A pool of weapons and frames excluding prime and kit guns. Frames have 5 rolls, weapons 2 each for ne.

51 Frames

140 Primary

106 Secondary

162 Melee

The outcome you want / total count = probability, rolls can’t be repeated so you need to remove 1 each time. I decided to use 10 and 20 for the outcome number.

Frames

10/51 = 19.61%

40/50 = 64%

39/49  = 79.59%

38/48 = 79.16%

37/47 = 78.72%

Likely to get something useful but still possible to get something awful.

Weapons primary, secondary and melee in that order.

20/140 = 14.29%

20/106 = 18.87%

20/162 = 12.35%

Minus 1 from both totals, ^2 for the second roll gives you the likelihood of something you wanted.

(119/139)^2 = 73.29%

(85/105)^2 = 65.53%

(141/161)^2 = 76.69%

7 in 10 still have 3 chances of getting something you disliked. Based on experience, more extensive weapon stocks reap a benefit here. Sometimes you can be unluckily forced to use default mods which suck on steel path.

* I fully expect I have made a mistake with the maths.