Ukraine failure of foreign policy and diplomacy
Modern world has created 24/7 news cycle, consumed by one thing. Often forget the smaller events, never reported due lacking the click power. Short snappy stories with so much detail lost, context missing and never explained. Things move quickly, interest is lost just fast any story turns up. Single big event has dozens of small events feeding into it. Russia newest invasion of Ukraine is no different. No formal notice given but last 8 years Russia been at war with Ukraine. No winners here just many losers in European foreign policy terms. Slow drift has become a series of major policy changes over night. History behind Ukraine is important, UK former ambassador to Ukraine wrote an article covering it. Missing the link for now.
I hold a deep concern over everybody escalating consequences are going to be huge. Nobody been honest about the costs involved here, everybody is gambling away. Small eastern European states announcement they want to join EU/NATO, some declaring sooner the better. Finland been talking about; Russian has threatened it along with Sweden. EU directly allowing the finance of weapon purchases. Countless nations increasing defense spending. Germany dropping foreign policy platforms it held for over 30 years. Turkey U turning on banning Russian ships. Been so many more shifts in policy hard to keep track. European geopolitics is changing at rapid pace. Everybody asking questions but very few easy answers on offer.
EU has tried to create single foreign platform, different priorities between east and west made that complicated. Dismissed the concerns of Eastern Europe, paranoid about Russia. Europe is now waking up to the idea has to defend, eastern European states. Are we really ready for nuclear war over Estonia? Sanctions alone failed to stop Russia, needs stronger deterrence. Stationing troops closer to Russian border, Russia sees that as further escalation. Another escalation on top growing European influence due trade gravity. Every action or statement carries a big risk, things could get worse before things improve.
Takes time before any impact is felt, human misery caused by displacement or economic hit that going to happen. Images already of people trapped at Polish border, racist guards blocking people crossing. Foreign students trapped between borders requiring evacuations. Europe could help but again Russians see any logistics as trojan horse. India wants the students back but my lack the capacity to do it. Need cooperation between various nations, finding staff to fly people back. We already seen nations forget about people in war zones or when states fail. Afghanistan has British nationals with families trapped outside the borders or trapped inside. No plan on deal with countless tragedies, reduced cooperation when we need more. For every person killed that one family now grieving, every tank destroyed that group of families crying over loved ones.
Nobody wins off the back of human suffering, we all lost due this war. European foreign policy has been slow to consider what Russia would think. Fault is shared across Europe, not single action or act to blame but long series of events. Russia own actions have added fuel to the fire, directly attacking or threatening, state sponsored murder. What the strategy was it has failed and produced an outcome nobody wanted. Human suffering is huge going to cause shockwaves for whole of Europe. Credit to the EU crafted a refugee policy within days everybody agreeing to it.UK however still holding firm no visa no entry and hostile towards anybody who not rich. UK failure to deal with growing Russian influence in British politics is shocking. Sadly, British politics has always been about money, buying you whatever influence no questions asked. Foster a society around attacking institutions refused to repair or defend them. UK legal system bending to protect money laundering, white collar crime is viewed as naughty but less serious. Little to no resources spent on enforcement, underinvestment is coming back to bite us. British state is underfunded, legal system is open to abuse. Everybody has opened themselves up to foreign actors, Cyprus is hot bed of Russian money too.
Only plan appears to be escalation, remains unclear what de-escalation would look like. West has some idea what Putin wants but unclear if Ukrainians would be happy with it. Russia wants real leverage, freezing of the current status quo. What that would look like remains unclear, does look like regime change at the moment. Fresh water ports are important to the Russian black sea fleet.
Britain has a chance to show it still great global player in the world. Boris Johnson is stuck, domestic toxic and weak during any crisis. Leadership rivals are attacking him on defence spending. Ranks of the Tory party are hardening against Russia and demanding more must be done. Close personal links to Russia not helpful, leave campaign close ties are painful. Russia western allies are thin on the ground, seeking to distance themselves. Russian influencers who caused so much pain and damage, trying to weaken Europe, repeat the same lines.
Regional stability is precious must be protected at all costs, defending law and order is necessary. Institutions we took for granted need reform, rebuilding. Things can never go back to normal, relationship with Russia is forever changed. Make no mistake things are about to get whole lot worse before anything improves on the ground. Cool heads must prevail otherwise things could get much worse and spiral out of control. Whole host of outcomes which come with various costs and risks. Putin has gambled, Europe strategy around eastern Europe is dead. Only thing that is certain, old order is ripped apart. We must rebuild, reforge and cooperation with Russia. We can’t risk peace in eastern Europe, other nations look unstable already. In the real-world things are never black and white. Only good thing that comes out of this, my desire to visit Ukraine. Learnt enough that looks like it would be a great trip away. I hope that I get a chance to visit it.
European peace is at stake, tinder box in eastern Europe right now. Just hope no cultural or historical items are destroyed by this war.
Update
West does not want military action, sad truth not willing to risk war with Russia. No fly zone would be an act of war, direct action against Russia military. Not even sure it would have the desired outcome, ending the war. We knew about this months ago yet failed to plan. Already the threat of nuclear weapons moving to Belarus. Which creates bit of problem for Eastern European states arming Ukraine. GRU have long history of operations against foreign nations, 2014 Czech Republic. Sending military shipments starts to become dangerous operation. Unlikely have any real impact being so late in day. Reaction so far from the west is not close to appeasement. How we got here weak enforcement and procedures around Russia money. Been reactive to Russia over proactive it starting to show. Borders of Europe faces very big humanitarian crisis, unclear how long it going to last. Europe has acted quite fast about coping with inflows from Ukraine. More needs to be done, more resources not just food and water.
Worse is yet to come and hardest part.