US Midterms: Blue tsunami

The US midterms were a night of firsts across America, with diversity on display: Latino, Black, female and LGBTQ candidates making history. Even in the Republican camp in the South, Byron Donalds became Florida’s first Black governor. There are plenty of other examples. It feels like a changing of the guard, with some looking forward and recognising that things are shifting. Time to reflect on my 2024 posts and what happened.

“US presidential election 2024” (October 2024): The thing that mattered here was inflation, the central theme of the 2024 election. Trump’s comments on Europe, security and trade should worry people.

“Stream of Thoughts on US Election 2024” (6 November): Important themes here were inflation, immigration and non-voters, with white men without a degree and their loss of status also important.

“The middle – US presidential election”: I warned that a narrow victory and overstepping his mandate would be a mistake. I also said the forces that got him into power could boot him out if inflation kept biting.

What did I get right?

Inflation sank the Democrats. Trump was the change guy, and my warning about Europe, security and trade turned out to be true.

What I missed: how important immigration would be. I should have seen that coming when Trump helped kill a bipartisan border bill for the campaign.

What I got completely wrong: how different his second term would be from the first. Loyalists around him, the worst possible people taking power, and his worst instincts unleashed.

I never quite grasped what Trump’s victory would mean, or how important Project 2025 was. I was expecting restraint, although part of me was worried. I underestimated the ruthlessness of it all: an aggressive Republican Party wielding power and giving Trump authority without oversight.

I also didn’t grasp how completely Trump would remake the party and expand presidential power. He sidelined its mainstream and brought alt-right and far-right figures into mainstream roles. He bypassed Congress, and the Senate struggled at times to pass laws, but did his bidding most of the time when asked.

The vested interests that put him into power went along with it. There was only one time Trump seemed to lack control: the Epstein files, where he was forced, kicking and screaming, to release them. Even then, the people around him only half did the job, with Congress allowing that.

For voters, the system is dysfunctional, inflation is high, and those worries matter far more than defending a status quo that doesn’t work for them. The last session of Congress did very little. Voters went for Trump regardless of the warnings, and the overreach has been huge. Normal is over. They voted for Trump twice, and we should not forget that, given the state of the Republican Party.

The Democrats’ problem?

Democrats have a problem too. Like the Republicans in 2024, they could overstep their mandate. Voters want them to talk about kitchen-table issues and deal with corruption, but not chase Trump at the expense of those priorities. There are limits, thanks to the Supreme Court and the pardon power, on who will face justice and who gets away with it. Finding a balance won’t be easy, with every group within the party drawing different conclusions.

America doesn’t love its mainstream parties. This time, voters mostly wanted to keep the other side out. Somehow, Democrats need to convince voters they can change things and make the argument for it. The good news is that voters seem willing to listen to them now.

That means changing how they talk to people and how they reach them. They need to pick their fights carefully, understand how big a threat Republicans can be, and connect the broken system with the need to fix inflation. They shouldn’t let Republicans frame them; they need to paint their own picture.

That means taking on vested interests, reforming elections and, crucially, dealing with the issues plaguing America. They seem to have done that with this election. Right now, voters have given Democrats a clear message:

Deal with inflation, fix corruption, deal with ineffective government.

There were signs and hints that Trump wouldn’t accept any reason why Republicans ended up losing, and that they might use the power of the state to interfere with the election. That worst-case scenario did not happen, although we did see people at polling stations. Trump has accepted the beating, saying things like “I wasn’t on the ballot, therefore it’s not my fault”. But he was. And in one key race, Alaska, he still plans to challenge the result. Old habits don’t disappear that easily.

Results and what happened?

The Republican Party was publicly on the attack but privately on the back foot and in defence mode. Gerrymandered seats and decades’ worth of measures to suppress the vote may have protected them, but it could have been so much worse without those measures.

Voters have no love for either party, but this time “I don’t like the other guy” helped Democrats win big. Republicans were punished for inflation, Trump, immigration, voter suppression and the war in Iran. Plenty of factors came together, ending in defeat.

Let’s start with the good news, I guess. Florida stays Republican, but the Senate race was close, about 2%, and even that saw a swing. Louisiana barely hangs on. Democrats spent no money here, so who knows what could happen with some extra funds. Mississippi looks like it could be one to flip, with Democrats ahead by around 1,800 and growing at the time of writing. Don’t forget Alaska could flip too, with votes still to count that should lean blue.

These weren’t even imagined as target seats, and now they look like ripe pickings for the future. Southern discomfort, driven by Black voters, is becoming clear, apart from Alaska, which is up north. The coalition that put Trump in power has flipped sides, and more. Every race, every group, swinging the other way. In battleground states, races were called quickly with major leads. Seats to watch moved deeper into red territory than many expected. These results alone should cause alarm in Republican ranks about what could be coming in 2028.

Democrats have won the House with a big majority, and the Senate now stands at 54–44, with two races undecided and two more seats possible to flip. The magic number is 60; more on that later.

This was always a hard map to flip, but it happened. They’ve got their best House result in 68 years. Further down the ballot, state races flipped too. Records have been broken and firsts made. Seats that shouldn’t have been considered became battlegrounds.

Far from a blue wave, this was more a blue tsunami washing away Republicans hand-picked by Trump. Support fell, voters stayed at home, some swapped sides and others turned up to vote. Voters acted like the president was on the ballot, as he had requested, just not the voters he wanted.

Senate to watch

The Senate is at 54 now, and 56 if Mississippi and Alaska flip. That would leave only four Republicans needing to cross over and vote with Democrats to reach 60 and break a filibuster, which matters for passing legislation.

Impeachment is a separate matter. The House impeaches with a simple majority, but removing someone from office takes a two-thirds vote in the Senate. With 56 seats, that’s about 11 Republicans if all senators are present.

Here’s the thing: after a stinging defeat, plenty of Republicans who aren’t up for re-election may be willing to vote with Democrats. Look at Pete Hegseth. He’s been accused of obscuring the true casualties of the Iran war, fired a bunch of generals and done much more. Maybe Republicans will be willing to knife him in the back. Hopefully Congress or Republicans can force Trump to make a deal over the Iran war, though I doubt it. There are others who could be in line for revenge, including the FBI director and anybody who struggled to get over the line.

The House and Senate results are good, but wait until you look under the hood. Before we do, let’s take stock of the Senate.

Senate flips (year each state last had a Democrat there)

• Kansas (1939)
• Maine (1988)
• Texas (1993)
• South Carolina (1998)
• North Carolina (2008)
• Iowa (2008)
• Ohio (2024)

Looking likely or possible

• Mississippi
• Alaska
• Louisiana

Louisiana was almost lost this time and could now be a target with some effort. The performance from the candidate here was incredible: no support and almost took it. Southern hospitality gave so many people the boot, out of the door and into the cold night.

Governors’ mansions flipped

• Georgia
• Iowa
• Kansas (pending)
• Ohio
• Texas
• Nevada

Trifectas gained

• Arizona
• Pennsylvania
• Wisconsin
• Minnesota
• Michigan

Republican supermajorities were broken in state legislatures in various places, including New Hampshire. It was not a good night.

Look all over the map and you see double flips, triple flips and losses across the ballot. Already hinted it but these making gains in states Trump had carried comfortably in 2024. Seats that Republicans might have expected to hold comfortably suddenly became competitive, and in some cases were lost. Some places have not seen Democrats in decades. Most of places lost have not done.

Texas saw a chainsaw massacre: Senate, governor, House, with more being lost to Democrats. This one is going to sting because the Republican Party’s heartbeat has been in Texas.

Ohio is another that will sting. governor mansion and Senate seat flipped, in a state Trump won comfortably in 2024. In Georgia, On My Mind, we see a sweep, with governor, House and more. It looked like a clear-out of the old.

We’re not in Kansas anymore: Kansas flipped senate, govenor. Sweet Virginia Breeze undid Jim Crow-era voting bans on felons. First wins in decades across the board.

The story is one of massive losses and pain for Republicans. Things were bad, but it could have been so much worse. It could have been an existential crisis. A reckoning with Trumpism is coming, with little legislation planned and infighting likely to begin over the soul of the party and who is to blame.

Unfortunately, that means dealing with the toxic mess within: the very worst ghouls allowed into the party. Some even got elected to office. The forces that allowed Trump to take over still exist, enabling him.

Returning to normal won’t happen because these impulses have been voted for twice. This time, though, they overreached their mandate and went too far. Sheer incompetence meant they failed to turn the presidency into a kingship, but with all the progress they made, it will still give some people ideas to try again. The America we knew has an ugly side. Now Republicans must deal with the legacy they helped create.

My worst fears about election interference didn’t come to pass. Yes, the DOJ sent people to polling stations, and yes, they tried to suppress the vote by moving or removing polling stations, yet it didn’t matter. Even in areas they gerrymandered, they ended up losing, including nearby seats. The wave was so big it overwhelmed those measures, which had protected some of the party. Without them, things could have been even worse.

Trump said he would accept the vote but is still trying to challenge it in Alaska. He even said he would work with Democrats, but will veto things to get them to the table. The thing is, he’s ruling like a king, not passing laws. Maybe he’ll try to get some legacy stuff sorted, who knows.

He’s not tied to the party anymore: he can’t run again, and its losses don’t touch him. That could cause a rift within his government, but why should he care? Republicans will be deeply worried. They have an old man in the White House who will throw them under the bus if needed.

Many on the right view themselves as born to rule. For some Republicans, losing is almost impossible to process after rigging the game so much. The psyche on the right is broken by the loss. Success is owed and destined for them, not earned.

Republicans are in deep trouble, tied to an old man who is a vengeful narcissist with no loyalty to the party, and who has the power to rip it apart or, worse, spoil their chances in 2028. Attacking Iran again, or Cuba, is on my mind, or maybe Canada with another trade war. They gave him a ton of power, and he has plenty of loyal people around him who would be willing to go along with it.

Democrats, on the other hand, have an opportunity of a lifetime. They just need to hold things together, taking some ideas from progressives while moderates work with them.

Wind in the sails of hope. The question now is who’s going to captain each ship? That battle is going to start now. The soul and direction of both parties are up for debate, and the race to the White House has started. Hopefully Trump leaves enough of it for the next person.