The Two Dysfunctions: Tory Madness and Labour’s Failure to Lead
The Two Dysfunctions: Tory Madness and Labour’s Failure to Lead
Getting dark, colder, turning wet and miserable, which means autumn is here. Well, now it is ending as I write this. Winter is coming, a season nobody enjoys, and nothing delightful happens. You have to wait until spring before rebirth takes place. Seasons are heavily linked to the equinox, a solar event we can’t change. As Earth’s axis changes, it means less overall sunlight here. Yet climate, which we don’t fully understand, is linked to it and to our own actions. We don’t fully know what climate change is going to do in its interaction with the equinox. Plenty we can control, like reducing the impact of man-made climate change. Yet for some, it feels like winter is here. Darkness is creeping on us. We can’t escape and the outcome is perceived as a done deal. A painful political winter is coming and a possible death to one party and the other one wounded deeply. Unlike the equinox, that is not set in stone. There are things you can do to avoid this. So many feel the need to treat it as inevitable.
The Conservative Decline: A Reckoning
People predicting the same outcome because it is what they have been saying all this time are missing the point. They shouldn’t be listened to. Sometimes they may have a point. Often it is the case that a broken clock is right twice a day. Some people within the media dislike anybody else in power but their clan, seeking to destroy whoever rivals them. What worries me is the radicalization of some of these people. Stuck in the “kicked balls factory” that is certain social media platforms. Unable to see the truth, staying on these platforms because everybody agrees with them, but being pushed further from the common person. Worse still, a giant hole in the political landscape a death of a party leaves must be filled. In many respects, the reason why Conservatives find themselves in such a mess is obvious: 14 years of poor public services catching up with them, sticking their middle finger up at the middle classes and voters as a whole, hubris and breaking the sense of fair play so many view as important, and lastly, forgetting results matter and unable to admit their failures in office.
They have forgotten the core purpose and point of that party. It was the rich man’s party with connections to the upper class, the well-to-do middle, and businessmen. Modest cuts in spending (austerity) were passed down to local government, using the savings for tax cuts to keep themselves in power, thereby keeping broken windows away from the well-to-do middle class. With Brexit, they followed populist fringes which helped ruin one connection, telling business to fuck off. Next they told the middle class and professionals to fuck off over COVID and parties. They decided it would be wise to fuck around with mortgage rates and pension funds. The cost of living crisis hit everybody. Not just that, but broken windows suddenly appeared for everybody; the middle class saw it and was shocked at the state of things. The list of sins added up. The hollowed-out brain of the party is now left with wealthy, older people who’d rather not see Nigel in number 10. The rest of the country does not want that too. So why the fuck do you ignore 80% of people who don’t want that? But instead of understanding that, they are chasing Nigel and alienating what little they have left. Showing the establishment don’t understand the working class and hate Britain really. Leaving them with more in common with the average voter than they like to admit. Stuck on brainrot content and misunderstanding reality.
The Threat from the Far-Right
What little they do have. The question is, who would want to rebuild the whole project from the ground up? What they need is entryism to rebuild, repair, and replace the fools that led them here. Country club Tories need to be willing to fight. They need to understand their whole existence and way of life is at threat. Not to cosy up with Nigel, because as the hard right, far right, and alt-right have shown, they hate these people. They never got invited to the establishment or tried to join it only to be rejected. They want to destroy you and take everything you own. It is a rebellion and reaction to being such snobs at rejecting them, driven in part with legitimate grievances which they have now weaponized against you. The very forces you sowed are now coming back to bite you in the ass.
A Smart Conservative Path to Reform
A smart conservative would look at what happened, go back to basics, be a bit social conservative, a bit liberal, and focus on results. Unpicking grievances, taking action on them, Labour leaving the door wide open. That means making the case that improving public services requires tax increases. Some of that needs to go towards reducing debt levels, something austerity failed at. Now it’s time to pay the bill for the modest austerity you did by offloading it to local government to avoid political cost. Repairing the damage done needs higher taxes, and doing unpopular reforms with your base, say, planning reforms and social care. And worse still, property taxes. The irony is that so-called Thatcherites would be making this case: too little regulation and fatty corporate greed. State intervention getting the private sector to build more homes too. Corporate governance should be reformed too and political donations, a long list they should be making the case for. Yes, the conservatives should be worried about foreign influence being corrosive to British politics.
To improve productivity, we need more immigration and investment. We need a liberal system where people have fewer restrictions to come here but it is harder to get settled residence. The party needs a sense of duty and focus on law and order. It needs to go after a media environment that spreads misinformation and disinformation. It needs to give people liberty and freedom to protest. It needs to borrow ideas from the left and do them well. Above all else, it needs to understand the forces pushing it to the right are not its friend. It has destroyed and ruined every other centre-right party; it is coming for you next. Perhaps it already has come for you and it’s not far off being killed off.
Like elites in the past, they need to understand change is required and reflection is necessary. Maybe that means looking at the voting system as a whole and doing the unthinkable. History here is simple: barons, lords and kings have seen this story before. Yes, they did the unthinkable, say for example, expanding who can vote. Otherwise, they will be replaced and your wealth will be taken. Now, reform may not come for your wealth now, but the far-right is not a friend but a foe. At some point, the reality is they need to pay for all their promises. It is very populist for them to promise to fund things using your wealth. Heed this warning now.
The Political Snapshot: Labour and Reform
A week is a long time in politics and years away from the next election. Yet the buzz is about Labour decline and Reform’s rise, ignoring the fact that Farage is deeply unpopular. People keep saying he is going to be Prime Minister. Now I’m old enough to remember Nick Clegg would be, or possibly Corbyn, or maybe Ed Miliband. You know who became Prime Minister? David Cameron, Theresa May, and Boris Johnson. The point I’m driving home here is that polling is just a snapshot. By-elections can be a protest vote. What each by-election loss shows us is something rather worrying: Reform is slowly replacing both mainstream parties in certain areas as the main parties, combined with voters splitting apart but being tactical to send a message.
That current message to Labour is simple: you’re unpopular and need to expand your appeal, otherwise you’re going to be replaced. Labour should remember why the Tories lost and understand the above. They should stop trying to chase the ghost of voters while ignoring the rest. The final point I need to make again is that ignoring everybody else is a stupid idea. First Past the Post can be kind to you before being so deeply cruel. 2024 was a brutally efficient executioner of voters’ displeasure with the Tories. It could have a complete wipeout election but also a warning. Multi-bloc politics is here. If your appeal is too narrow you can’t win. I’m not sure why Labour thought it could avoid gravity and went to the right. It’s the same point as the Tories, I guess: they should have spent more time understanding it needs to lead, not follow voters who often have complicated views.
Labour’s Dilemma and Strategy
So what can Labour do? Well, unpopular but necessary tax increases, giving it room to improve public services but lower debt. The party made a sin by going after pensions with winter fuel, a mistake when it had no story to tell and a mistake that most voters noticed. Worse still, it went after disabled people. The thing is, these are small beer and the party would need to go back again for something unpopular again. Obvious places to start would be undoing NI cuts done by Hunt. Increasing basic rate for income tax too. Looking at capital gains taxes increasing, local government ones. I don’t understand why it is so hard to understand you need more room, not limited room. All unpopular but needed; the last one would avoid bankruptcy for local government. And I’m starting to think about replacing Keir Starmer as leader. He is not very good at handling the party and has no desire to do politics. Not just replacing him but coming up with a new strategy and plan. Looking to expand its support before it is too late. The party has one shot at doing that. It is unpopular, so it needs somebody who can turn things around and a new vision. Needs a platform that more people can vote for.