Mini budget, making of a financial crisis
UK government announced a mini-budget, part of it would be measures to deal with rising energy costs. Details finally become public, universal blanket support with average cost capped. Business energy costs again average price is limited, 6 months compared to 2 years for the public. Idea behind it is incentive to reduce energy usage.
Energy generators have been making record profits, estimated to be about £170 billion. Reason is gas prices being linked to general energy unit costs. Some producers have seen no raising costs but huge profits as prices rise. Windfall tax on excess profits and delinking gas prices from energy generation would make sense but that was ruled out. Govt intervention was needed as the market became dysfunctional. Global problem as energy supplies and high demand pushed up prices.
Mini-budget proposed went far further than just the energy support package. At least we got some more details but for many businesses already too late. Normally markets barely move, markets do listen and react. Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng plan for growth was unfunded tax cuts for the rich, higher borrowing and limited details on supply style reforms. Kwasi economic credibility was destroyed by his own budget and actions. That not normal at all and unlikely to calm markets if he stays in post. UK is now facing weaker pound which means higher inflation and higher borrowing costs. Higher inflation means higher interest rates, lowering house prices and increasing borrowing costs overall. Markets are going bake in higher prices as insurance against the risky budget ideas. Punishing and warning the government to avoid doing stupid ideas.
Supply style reforms with no real details mixed with tax cuts to boost demand. Plan for growth is going to end up reducing growth, any growth gained is wiped out. Estimates of how much growth from the reforms about 0.1%. UK is now facing further spending cuts, inflation is eating into budgets. Real easy obvious supply side reforms like reducing NHS backlogs and waiting times not on the table. Nothing to boost skills or training. Nothing on childcare nothing on well anything but tax cuts for the few. UK could borrow to fund these things, apart from tax cuts. Borrowing costs would go up but not by that much.
UK is facing a toxic mix of poor policy choices, under funding of public services and trade barriers with the EU. Everything that is happening right now is by choice. Planning reform was promised again but no real details. Against this backdrop UK wants to scrap EU laws it voted to keep. Reaction against the UK budget was not due one policy idea but all of it. Being forced to pick what bits you want to keep but can’t have it all. Liz Truss now faces a painful U turn against her policy platform, she could ignore it but pay a heavy price. UK is now likely to go into a deep recession without further support unlikely to recover in time for a general election. Creating the conditions for defeat and just from one short budget. Bank of England had to step in to protect pension funds.
Lizz Truss should own this mess and quickly learn from it. Speaking this morning and doubling down has not helped. Long list of people who think UK needs to change course but only two voices matter on the subject. Three weeks into the job and not making a good start.