British general election exit poll/results 2024

Conservatives: 131

Labour: 410

Liberal Democrats: 61

SNP: 10

Reform UK: 13

Plaid Cymru: 4

Greens: 2

This is a historic event, marking the worst Conservative result in 190 years. Labour is projected to surge from 202 to over 400 seats in a single electoral cycle. Other notable outcomes include the Liberal Democrats achieving their best result in over a century, and the Greens gaining an additional seat. Reform, a new party, secured 13 seats—a commendable performance. While the exit poll aligns with the average range of pre-election polls, there’s a possibility that seat totals are inaccurate, and the final result could be even worse for the Conservatives. We’ll have to wait until all ballots are counted and declared to determine the true winner. A historic event is unfolding tonight.

I wrote that last night before any results were declared.

Final results

Conservatives: 121

Labour: 411

Liberal Democrats: 72

SNP: 9

Reform UK: 4

Plaid Cymru: 4

Greens: 4

Others: 7

The simple narrative here is the Tory pain everybody gains. Voters decided on mass to tactical vote, not just that but clever targeting yielded big results. Both Labour and Liberal Democrats’ voting efficacy caused major upsets to happen. In some cases, Tories got very lucky because voters did not know who to tactical vote for. Liberal Democrats have returned to being 3rd party, they now have a firm base with more gains in sight. Something much bigger is happening under the surface. Fragmenting of the British electorate, multi-party system trapped in first past the post. Splitting apart slowly, old divides have been exposed, producing a swingy landscape. A European-style electorate with first past the post, anti-politics mood that is alive. In some places turning away from mainstream parties, angry and disengaged.

It will take a while to understand it but the trend is clear. This is the worst result in their 190-year history. Rishi sunak was given a losing hand and played it badly. Records have been broken across the board. Voters have decided on humiliation and punishment after 14 years. Why comes down to three words, incompetence, trust and delivery.

Former prime minister Lizz Truss lost her seat. The only other time that has happened, is in 1906 with Arthur Balfour. Her name is likely to become similar to Portillo, a symbol of defeat and a historic night. Micheal Portillo cabinet member lost his safe seat in 1997.

5 former prime minister seats have also changed hands.

Lizz Truss South West Norfolk

Boris Johnson old seats, Uxbridge and South Ruislip also Henley and Thame

Theresa May Maidenhead

David Cameron Witney

Only Lizz Truss decided to stick around, otherwise they would have fallen and joined the history books. Record 11 cabinet members lost their seats, with close calls in other seats. It was an end of a era, big defeat for the Tories. It could have been far worse and could get worse before it gets better.