The next United Kingdom general election must be held no later than 28th January 2025. However, this timeline presents a unique challenge: campaigning over Christmas and into the last possible date. As a result, it’s unlikely that the election will occur during that period, leaving us with October or November as more feasible options. Additionally, the party conferences scheduled for September further complicate the timing. Useful explainer, When will the next UK general election be? | Institute for Government
Polls consistently show that the Labour Party maintains a 14-20% lead over the Conservatives. That trend, started in late 2021, has persisted for the past two years. Source for that claim, politico, BBC, Guardian, Sky news. With other polling data also indicating negative sentiment toward the Conservative party. Approval of government can be found here from YouGov. Here Ipsos tracking how approvals for various issues. Point is these numbers are not good news, once trust is lost voters don’t listen. No party has recovered while being this far behind on all the important measures. Even if you assume the best-case recovery happens, the Labour lead would still be 4-6%. All these numbers point towards defeat. However, we don’t know what sort of defeat is going to happen. Four possible outcomes here, small defeat, big defeat, wipe out and extinction event.
Voters have lost trust in the Conservatives across various measures, largely due to a series of supply shocks, scandals, and questionable political decisions. Supply shocks talking about brexit, COVID, Russia war in Ukraine and oil price jumps caused by conflict. As for scandals, ‘party gate’ scandal involving Boris Johnson, and the crash of Liz Truss’s mini budget. Mixed with a string of smaller scandals, but these two caused the biggest drop in support. Questionable choices long list from housing, planning, and lack of investment. Against the record of stagnant wages over the past 14 years is not good. The self-imposed supply shock of leaving the European Union has not helped matters, acting like a slow puncture on the UK economy.
The power to call an election lies with the Prime Minister, and timing is a crucial decision. We find ourselves in the final months of a government that appears to have run out of fresh ideas. The Conservative party is hopelessly divided, and external shocks have exposed deep fault lines within its ranks. The upcoming local elections on 2nd May add further pressure to announce a date, and the anticipated losses may lead to panic as reality sets in.
From the outside, Rishi Sunak seems to believe he can still win. Despite the polling, he has made the right choices and deserves reward, public opinion remains unswayed. At times still chaotic moments but nothing compared to what came before. We are now in an extended campaign period before any general election is officially called. Unfortunately, there seem to be no more “rabbits in the hat” left to shift the dial. Local elections normally don’t tell you much but give you an idea of the direction of travel. Showing you who is up and down.
The nationalist conservatism in the UK mirrors trends seen in Europe, but it has not yet found a winning formula. To make matters worse, trends along with fringe ideas, like leaving the European Court of Human Rights, have now become mainstream. That has me worrying about the future. Fringe ideas in the past have now become mainstream, and what worries me is what is to come. Furthermore, the influence of Russian and Chinese interests has been pushing their world view. Both are trying to weaken the Western world and view democracy as an inferior system of government.
As the campaign machinery gears up, the echoes of supply shocks, scandals, and questionable decisions reverberate through the political landscape. The Conservative party, once a formidable force, now grapples with internal divisions and external pressures. Trust, once squandered, is a fragile commodity. Next the government is going to inherit an awful outlook, economy in bad shape and low trust. Generation who have no experience of power, going to face similar divisions and pressures. No of power makes that even harder to deal with.