Infected Mushroom & Bliss – A Cookie from Space
Month: October 2022
Rishi same old or something new
Rishi Sunak has become prime minister, a boring fiscal conservative. Similar instincts to the rest of his party but is inexperienced. At times he can be robotic and geeky, viewed as highly competent. Boring with a hint of dull is back in fashion. Boris promoted Rishi, hoping the treasury would be under n10 thumb. As it turns out treasury had other ideas and power remained untouched. Boris declined and Rishi climbed in terms of influence. Rishi was one of the first senior ministers to leave helping to oust Boris from power. In many ways, Rishi is a traditional conservative. Boris’s 2019 election coalition is different to traditional blue voters. Similar in being homeowners but they want more state intervention.
Pressure on political services means more demand for higher spending. Liz Truss asked the right questions but got the answers wrong. More growth would reduce the tax burden, policies needed for that require a mandate. UK badly needs planning reform and other supply side reforms. Not every reform is anti-worker. Bold radical tax reform is also needed to fund public services. Changes require need a mandate that Rishi lacks. Therefore, a general election is required but first Tories need to understand what they want to do. So far looks like more of the same.
Both main parties have an opportunity. Only question is do they want to take it and change the direction the UK is heading in.
Tory leadership race coronation or funeral
Tory leadership race coronation or funeral
Graham Norton summed up the current state of British politics quite nicely.
Penny Mordaunt for party sake
Rishi Sunak for country’s sake
Boris Johnson for fuck sake
Sense of duty
The late Queen Elizabeth ii had a sense of duty and devotion to public service. All three candidates to be prime minster lack that sense of duty. To make matters worse three candidates don’t have much political capital or skills required. Judging from past behaviour here, don’t know much about what they want to do. Only two have officially declared to be running with Boris in the shadows.
We don’t know what they plan to do or if they understand the challenges ahead. None of them would want to be hostage to fortune during a short race. None of them has taken responsibility for making things worse. Conservatives have decided to rage pointless culture wars over doing real supply-side reforms and chased easy sugar highs on tax cuts. None of them shows even any sense of public duty. Does anybody of them deserve the job not really?
Posh, clown and token figure
Rishi wealthy posh bloke, born for the job but not suited for it. Rishi has shown himself to be pretty awful at politics at times. Inexperienced with naivety, ideology is somewhat known. Therefore is viewed as the safe pair of hands, however like his party is trapped in contradiction against reality.
Penny’s values are well unknown, she has moved positions to suit the room. Penny is similar to Rishi but full of contradictions. Ideology changes depending on the weather, liar like Boris in many ways. She only here as a token figure making sure she gets a seat at the table.
Boris’s sense of duty is only to enrich himself, he got removed as prime minister due to his behaviour not long ago. Boris well he lazy, deeply arrogance proven liar smart at playing politics. His performance is like a clown or fool, opportunist who plays the fool. The writing is on the wall when comes to Boris being around. Both Penny and Boris are proven liars who play the game. Everybody is deeply flawed and with huge downsides.
On balance, Rishi is the least worse option.
A new clown is in town
Gather all around, there’s a new clown in town
He’s preaching for a change but theres nothing going down
So bring all your gold and forgiveness will be sold
And if you’re number seven he will send you straight to heaven.
None of the candidates is being honest about what is facing the UK at the moment.
The new prime minister is being given a huge poison chalice. Conservative party’s legacy for the last 12 years not fixing the roof while the sun was shining. Wasting a decade or more of low-interest rates by not investing back into the economy. So much time has been wasted we’re unprepared. The UK lacks resilience and capacity against supply shocks. Therefore leaving the UK exposed to current weather events and leaving us with creaking, public services. Rebuilding is going to be costly and take time. Taking the UK on early retirement, damaged the UK reputation and left us isolated.
Job at hand and tough choices ahead
The job at hand is dealing with the current crises and maintaining the state. Dealing with the dysfunctional bits that not currently working. At the moment most of the UK state is dysfunctional. Failing or flat-out falling apart. Void of leadership with long-standing issues must be dealt with. At the same time levelling with the public just how bad things could get. Therefore requires leadership flexible thinking and doing whatever it takes. The damage they have done means the response has less fiscal firepower. Liz Truss has shown if the UK wants to provide more financial support it needs to increase taxes. Pressure is already massive and only going to grow. Government is unpopular now before most of the pain is yet to come.
The only bit of good news here is unlikely the Northern Ireland protocol is getting replaced and the trade war starts.
Stability and credibility
Stability and credibility are in short supply, and the kindness of strangers has finely run out. Rebuilding credibility and providing some sort of stability is going to be important. The age of disruptions is here, nobody knows when the next supply shock is coming.
What are the challenges ahead?
- Ageing population
- Underfunded public services
- The labour market is shrinking (Covid and NHS waiting list)
- Shrinking tax base
- Political instability
- High current account deficit
- Low growth
- Trade barriers
- Low business investment
- Low wage growth
- Poor productivity
- Climate change
A new prime minister could solve just one of these problems. Living in a fantasy world none of the candidates has engaged with the above challenges. Nobody wants to discuss it or even begin to level with voters. This spells bad news and hints that further political instability is on the horizon. Investors are finally taking notice of the UK’s poor performance, political instability and failure to be serious. Some of these problems are decades old and require serious long-term thinking and solution. Media has been focused solely on debt, ignoring the UK record current account deficit as a far bigger problem.
Worse still the majority of the media is avoiding talking or even thinking about the cost of living crisis. Tories could be preparing for a coronation or a funeral at the next election. Labour need to be preparing for the government if polling stays the same way. Once again worth repeating the worse is yet to come and no easy quick fix.
*High inflation is a problem but is driven by supply shock within the energy market. Expected to decline within next 2 years.
Liz Truss has resigned
Liz Truss has resigned as PM.
Therefore, became the shortest reigning British Prime minister in history. Elected by the party membership, a mandate that was different to the 2019 conservative manifesto. Certainly, you would carefully plan what changes to do. Deeply inspired by free-market think tanks based on Tufton street. Toxic influence has poisoned British politics for years, markets firmly rejected it. Theories from Tufton street failed, U-turn was forced but the damage was already done. Instead, Truss decided to run headfirst into the brick wall. Normally you build consensus to govern, Lizz Truss tried to force things past parliament.
The whole platform went up in smoke, followed by a series of train wrecks. As it turns out she was deeply inexperienced and out of her depth for the top job. Unforced errors reduced her time further in downing street. The pain was accelerated by her own arrogance. The real tragedy she never took responsibility, and failed to learn from Boris Johnson’s own arrogance. A golden girl of the party grassroots failed basic lessons about politics. She never really had a big support base and ignored how important party management would be. Series of unforced errors, bad theory and total failure to understand how to get things done.
She is in office but without any real power. History won’t view her kindly and her political career is now over. The Halloween budget is most likely going to be pushed back. A new prime minister only having 3 days to sign off a budget is unlikely.
*Events moved quickly and I was thinking this morning she would stay a bit longer. Turns out lettuce does have a longer shelf life compared to her.
Circus of malaise, Lizz Truss’s premiership
Circus of malaise, Lizz Truss Premiership
Long 6 weeks of malaise
A strong feeling of malaise is starting to set in. Unease about the current direction, sense of crisis in the air. Unhappy before things get tough and worse is certainly to come. Tory’s rule comes down to the media, the market, and mortgage holders’ support. Normally a budget doesn’t move the market, but Lizz Truss’ first budget doomed her premiership. Sacking senior civil service officials, refusing to release forecasts, and trying to cherry-pick forecasts. What little political capital she had was gone. Overnight she has caused low mortgage rates to disappear off the market. Causing UK borrowing costs to rapidly increase overnight. The reaction was corrosive, and credibility melted away. While further comments this was just the start caused further damage. Reality forced a huge climb down, destroying everything Lizz Truss said she would do. Feels like the dying days of a prime minister over the first 6 weeks.
Act 2 of the circus
Annoying off every single wing of the party. Straightaway you can smell blood in the air for further U-turns. Bunch of unpopular bills that are due in parliament. Unnecessary authoritarian power grabs, trying to create a mountain from a molehill. Like her predecessor, unforced errors have compounded her already tough job. The Labour party has created a trap. the prime minister decided to trigger it evidently making it worse. Therefore, forcing a none blinding vote on having a debate about fracking. Heavy-handed approach with mixed messages resulted in bullying, forcing MPs to vote with govt. A junior minister floated the idea it was a matter of confidence in the prime minister. Rumours flooded the chamber’s chief whip indeed deputies had resigned. Aftermath this morning is making the party even angrier at number 10. Could have walked away from the vote.
Drama in Westminster cost of living crisis for rest
At the present time, Lizz Truss is likely to stay in power. Another key point party is desperate to avoid a lengthy leadership race. Over 12 MPs have publicly declared the prime minister should go. As a result, privately MPs have started to discuss what happens next. The lack of a unity candidate is keeping Lizz Truss in power for now. Only 10 days until the UK budget, the prime minister makes the final decision on signing things off. Especially important at the moment, as markets don’t like instability. The cost of living crisis is happening outside of Westminster, feels like a million miles away. The government needs to provide more support but is unwilling to do that. Public opinion has started to change, voters rarely take notice. The first thing to remember impossible to recover once negative impressions are formed.
Given these points matter of when, and who takes the crown. Kingdom in crisis and leadership is desired for the tough choices ahead.
Poetry – How do you really feel and Emotional islands
Normally I don’t write much poetry, here two poems. I had fun writing both of theses.
How do you really feel?
Sadness hidden behind the eyes
Cheerful smiling and joking, just a lie
Anxiety and depression close friends
Lying in bed with no motivation, oh you’re just lazy
Nobody really asks how you feel
Nobody really knows the self-isolation
Nobody really questions
Nobody listening
Freedom of choice is an illusion
Trapped in a prison of your own mind
Worse fears are the guards
Walls are your body
Warden is your brain
Tools of support in limited supply
Waiting waiting unknown wait time
Couple of hours over a short course
Not enough and too many waiting for too little
No, follow up no questions
Forgotten until the next referral
The cycle repeats until something gives
Giving up the gift of life for a sweet release
Never clean always leaving behind
Loved ones, unfinished chores
Why did nobody ask
How do you really feel?
Emotional islands
Emotions are like the weather
A powerful force of nature
You can’t control it only adopt
You can never be fully prepared
Dark sad clouds give way
Light happy clouds give way
Exposed to the endless cycle
Don’t forget that it passes
Don’t get rainbows without rain
Don’t get happiness without sadness
You are not an island, not alone
Day and night, we all connected